Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

Happydays2020

If I recall correctly the alarm bells on the new numbers went off on 19th/20th December, with the new recommendations made on 22 December.

Do you think that it may have changed people’s Christmas plans/ behaviour?

We already had a rota for spending time with parents but siblings said they were even more cautious for the Xmas day meal, I cancelled a night out in a gastro pub last week, and also cancelled plans this week to meet with friends for a meal.

niallo27

TonyMaloney wrote: »

To be fair, they haven't a bloody clue what they are doing.
Picking a set of restrictions for an unknown number of future cases is difficult enough for the experts, so our rank amateur politicians are highly likely to make a meal of it.

I suspect we'll see multiple sets of restrictions as they come to the realisation that they've ****ed up again.

The purpose of the lockdowns was to stop the hospitals from getting overwhelmed and to keep deaths extremely low. This has been done very effectively each time, you could argue the restrictions were too harsh as hospitals have never been as quiet but sure post some Google data and panic yourself.

Avoation1091

TonyMaloney wrote: »

To be fair, they haven't a bloody clue what they are doing.
Picking a set of restrictions for an unknown number of future cases is difficult enough for the experts, so our rank amateur politicians are highly likely to make a meal of it.

I suspect we'll see multiple sets of restrictions as they come to the realisation that they've ****ed up again.

You sound so positive altogether? Were all worried. But Is there any point closing non essential retail when theres very little cases from there? Coveney has said this as well. Thousands of jobs in this sector and thats a lot of people to put on the PUP. They have shut everything they can.

They were well able to bring in the full L5 in October.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-19outbreaksclustersinireland/COVID-19%20Weekly%20Outbreak%20Report_Week512020_v1.1_22122020_WebVersion.pdf

That shows were outbreaks are taken place. Theres probably a lag as well. Bit very little outbreaks in non essential retail and gyms. January is usually a very quiet month as well.

Happydays2020

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Will a day ever pass on these threads that there will not be a call to close the schools?

I hated going back to school after Christmas. So in solidarity with my 14 year old self I call for the schools to remain closed.

niallo27

ElJeffe wrote: »

Oh i agree but then be prepared for rolling lockdowns until May imo.

I'm suggesting the best way to control the virus not what this government will do.

You do realise your plan involves staying in lockdown to avoid rolling lockdowns.

Happydays2020

Hector Savage wrote: »

So Varadkar admitting that case numbers will be still used as a metric to decide restrictions, so even after older/vulnerable people are vaccinated and hospitals aren't being slammed - still lockdowns.


Insanity.

They are a valuable metric, but equally is the age of those who are positive, number of close contacts, the R0 number, the current hospitalisation numbers (and status entering hospitals) and ICU numbers.

Hopefully they have studied the Sept/Oct data and can with greater accuracy predict hospital and ICU numbers in 3/4 weeks time.

ElJeffe

niallo27 wrote: »

You do realise your plan involves staying in lockdown to avoid rolling lockdowns.

You obviously didn't read my post correctly. We can lockdown until mid March or have rolling lockdowns that won't work until May. Which would you prefer.

ElJeffe

Not Ireland related but what selfish horrible people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/hundreds-uk-tourists-flee-covid-quarantine-swiss-ski-resort-verbier

Words fail me.

niallo27

ElJeffe wrote: »

You obviously didn't read my post correctly. We can lockdown until mid March or have rolling lockdowns that won't work until May. Which would you prefer.

What happens in March to prevent a further lockdown. By your plan would it back to level 2 in March.

bb1234567

Ficheall wrote: »

If only people were as concerned about the vulnerables' wellbeing when it was dependent on their own actions, rather than trotting it out as another axe to grind against Tony/the HSE/the government.

Yeh they are heartbroken now. The last 9 months though it was oh they should fend for themselves while we get on with it, wasn't it?

It is such a ridiculous over-exaggeration, the vaccine process will take months in every country, 72 hours delayed ain't gonna make or break it. The vulnerable are not even the first to be vaccinated in any country FFS, healtcare workers first for the most part. Even if we were last to vaccinate, most European countries lost tens of thousands of their vulnerable to COVID over the several months while Ireland maintained below average mortality rates since Apri, so a bit of perspective perhaps

ElJeffe

niallo27 wrote: »

The purpose of the lockdowns was to stop the hospitals from getting overwhelmed and to keep deaths extremely low. This has been done very effectively each time, you could argue the restrictions were too harsh as hospitals have never been as quiet but sure post some Google data and panic yourself.

So you are now saying the lockdowns where a good idea?

iamwhoiam

Happydays2020 wrote: »

If I recall correctly the alarm bells on the new numbers went off on 19th/20th December, with the new recommendations made on 22 December.

Do you think that it may have changed people’s Christmas plans/ behaviour?

We already had a rota for spending time with parents but siblings said they were even more cautious for the Xmas day meal, I cancelled a night out in a gastro pub last week, and also cancelled plans this week to meet with friends for a meal.

It definitely changed plans for my family and friends . We cancelled a lunch with my brother , Christmas dinner was reduced to one family , my daughter cancelled a dinner with friends on 26 th

ElJeffe

niallo27 wrote: »

What happens in March to prevent a further lockdown. By your plan would it back to level 2 in March.

Hopefully by then the HSE get's the finger out and has vaccinated the majority of at risk citizens. Once they are vaccinated we can no longer worry about the hospitals getting over run and open up society. I'm 47 and if i don't get vaccinated this year i'm not bothered. All the focus should be on the at risk group.

niallo27

ElJeffe wrote: »

So you are now saying the lockdowns where a good idea?

I never once said they weren't, I was arguing the severity and length of them.

h2005

Why have we delayed the roll out of the vaccine? Is it because of Christmas holidays? It’s bizarre, we’re desperate for a vaccine but then sit on it once we get it.

iguana

klose wrote: »

The initial march lockdown was so harsh because nobody had any idea the severity of the situation we were dealing with, we now know a lot more about it and so a march style lockdown won't be happening (I assume)

Anybody who cared to actually pay attention in February knew pretty much exactly what we were dealing with. We had a very good idea of how contagious it was, the most likely hospitalisation rate and IFR. If anything what we came to know by the end of the summer was that the situation was slightly worse than had been assumed in February due to the significant prevalence of post-viral syndromes in people with mild cases. And the non-seasonal nature of Sars-Cov-2. And right now things are much, much worse because there are two incredibly infectious variants which are taking off. Just look at the situation in south Wales right now.

We are also potentially very, very close to the end. A months long hard lockdown to prevent the new strains taking hold while at the same time rolling out the vaccine, will see us reopen for good over the next year. Many business can reopen in March secure in the knowledge that they won't be told to shut again. More and more will open through the year, and as they open, it will be for good. Letting things continue to go out of control now will cost lives, hurt the health service, could hinder the vaccination roll out. And worst of all, allows more opportunity for the virus to mutate in a way that the vaccines won't be effective against. If that happens we'll be set back by months while the current vaccines are adapted and new formulations produced. We're near the end but that means throwing everything we've got at it right now to get to that end as fast as we can and ensure we stay there.

niallo27

ElJeffe wrote: »

Hopefully by then the HSE get's the finger out and has vaccinated the majority of at risk citizens. Once they are vaccinated we can no longer worry about the hospitals getting over run and open up society. I'm 47 and if i don't get vaccinated this year i'm not bothered. All the focus should be on the at risk group.

If the most at risk get vaccinated then why would we have rolling lockdowns until May if we don't go with your plan. Would we not be in the same situation with both plans bar a few less cases numbers on your side.

KrustyUCC

Vaccine rollout 'about safety' not just speed - HSE

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1228/1186690-covid-ireland/

Vaccine red tape over ‘complex consent process’ delays roll-out here

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/vaccine-red-tape-over-complex-consent-process-delays-roll-out-here-39905739.html

Another load of codswallop from the HSE

We're going to be the third last country in Europe to start going

None of those issues are unique to Ireland and should have been sorted far sooner so that we were ready to roll on day one

Nope not from the HSE

ElJeffe

niallo27 wrote: »

I never once said they weren't, I was arguing the severity and length of them.

But can't you see a short sharp shock lockdown is better than a rolling open close open close open close strategy.

KrustyUCC

What's a short sharp lockdown?

niallo27

ElJeffe wrote: »

But can't you see a short sharp shock lockdown is better than a rolling open close open close open close strategy.

Yours is not sharp, yours involves closing all hospitality until March and putting hundreds of thousands of jobs out of work for all of January.

xhomelezz

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Vaccine rollout 'about safety' not just speed - HSE

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1228/1186690-covid-ireland/

Vaccine red tape over ‘complex consent process’ delays roll-out here

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/vaccine-red-tape-over-complex-consent-process-delays-roll-out-here-39905739.html

Another load of codswallop from the HSE

We're going to be the third last country in Europe to start going

None of those issues are unique to Ireland and should have been sorted far sooner so that we were ready to roll on day one

Nope not from the HSE

Every time they start using words like "robust", I'm having goosebumps, cuz it's always disaster. Like our robust contact tracing system..

Neamhshuntasach

AdamD wrote: »

I think cases would drop off in a couple of weeks regardless of the level we're at (though it will obviously help). I get the impression social activity will be considerably lower than it was a couple of weeks ago.

Definitely. Restrictions or not. I think we'd see a drop simply because of the nature of January. So with whatever restrictions are in place in terms of what they want people to follow, minimising contacts, number of visitors to homes, travel out of County,etc. These will be ignored post January by more and more people who adhered to the first two set of full restrictions. By that time people will see vaccinations happening daily, cases will drop and people will just have generally had enough. On the back of that, I reckon there will be hard lobbying to open certain sectors. Don't see much compliance with level 5 for a few months into 2021. From the general public I mean. Not business who may face fines if they open.

h2005

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Vaccine rollout 'about safety' not just speed - HSE

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1228/1186690-covid-ireland/

Vaccine red tape over ‘complex consent process’ delays roll-out here

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/vaccine-red-tape-over-complex-consent-process-delays-roll-out-here-39905739.html

Another load of codswallop from the HSE

We're going to be the third last country in Europe to start going

None of those issues are unique to Ireland and should have been sorted far sooner so that we were ready to roll on day one

Nope not from the HSE

So 24 EU countries don’t have the same issues with informed consent or safety as us? There was so much time to prepare for this, I can’t fathom how we have to delay.

niallo27

iguana wrote: »

Anybody who cared to actually pay attention in February knew pretty much exactly what we were dealing with. We had a very good idea of how contagious it was, the most likely hospitalisation rate and IFR. If anything what we came to know by the end of the summer was that the situation was slightly worse than had been assumed in February due to the significant prevalence of post-viral syndromes in people with mild cases. And the non-seasonal nature of Sars-Cov-2. And right now things are much, much worse because there are two incredibly infectious variants which are taking off. Just look at the situation in south Wales right now.

We are also potentially very, very close to the end. A months long hard lockdown to prevent the new strains taking hold while at the same time rolling out the vaccine, will see us reopen for good over the next year. Many business can reopen in March secure in the knowledge that they won't be told to shut again. More and more will open through the year, and as they open, it will be for good. Letting things continue to go out of control now will cost lives, hurt the health service, could hinder the vaccination roll out. And worst of all, allows more opportunity for the virus to mutate in a way that the vaccines won't be effective against. If that happens we'll be set back by months while the current vaccines are adapted and new formulations produced. We're near the end but that means throwing everything we've got at it right now to get to that end as fast as we can and ensure we stay there.

If the virus is gonna mutate its not going make a difference if we are in lockdown or not as it will just get imported when we open up. Who is letting things go out of control, we entering back into lockdown.

ElJeffe

niallo27 wrote: »

If the most at risk get vaccinated then why would we have rolling lockdowns until May if we don't go with your plan. Would we not be in the same situation with both plans bar a few less cases numbers on your side.

We'd have rolling lockdowns because the half arsed levels we have don't work. We never got less than 250 cases a day with the measures we took. You can't vaccinate people if they are already in hospital sick with the virus.

Another massive issue here is the HSE have had 10 months to prepare for this and yet there is no clear plan of how to vaccinate the at risk. Will the doctor do it, will you have to attend the hospitals, will there be dedicated centres set up to deal with it. Where's the info?

Speed is an issue here and as we all know the HSE moves like a stoned snail.

KrustyUCC

h2005 wrote: »

So 24 EU countries don’t have the same issues with informed content or safety as us? There was so much time to prepare for this, I can’t fathom how we have to delay.

They're just deflecting now that the public are onto them about the delays

Germany, Hungary and Slovakia began giving out their first coronavirus vaccine shots on Saturday only hours after receiving their first shipments

TonyMaloney

niallo27 wrote: »

The purpose of the lockdowns was to stop the hospitals from getting overwhelmed and to keep deaths extremely low. This has been done very effectively each time, you could argue the restrictions were too harsh as hospitals have never been as quiet but sure post some Google data and panic yourself.

Niall, did you know that public health teams around the globe are using the same google data that I post here?
No, of course you didn't. It's valuable and valid data.

The hospitals are going to come under enormous stress in the coming weeks/months, and loads of people are going to die because the government disregarded expert advice on restrictions.

KrustyUCC

xhomelezz wrote: »

Every time they start using words like "robust", I'm having goosebumps, cuz it's always disaster. Like our robust contact tracing system..

Yes that's a very fair point

SpacialNeeds

leanin2019 wrote: »

NPHET Recommended the Full Level 5 according to Leo if you listen to the full interview

However he implied it would be better to keep to the current restrictions and wait to see if that improves the situation, and that the Full Level 5 may not reduce the cases enough to justify the damage caused by it.

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/11267631

Gavin Jennings with the little slip at the very start of the show just to indicate his subservience to Leo.

Montrose very reluctant to relinquish any power to FF.