Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

Jim_Hodge

According to the Department of Health, Northern Ireland's figures for the past two days.

1, 634 individuals have tested positive for COVID-19 in the past 48 hours. Sadly a further 20 deaths have been reported.

KrustyUCC

Why would life not go back to normal once the most vulnerable and hcw are vaccinated?

If the most vulnerable are not dying and the hcw can stay working then case numbers won't really matter

niallo27

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Why would life not go back to normal once the most vulnerable and hcw are vaccinated?

If the most vulnerable are not dying and the hcw can stay working then case numbers won't really matter

People are so terrified by case numbers, if will take a long time to change that mentality and I'm sure nphet will want restrictions until the end of next year at least.

lukas8888

Acey10 wrote: »

Does anyone know if there's a live briefing tonight?

Next one is next Monday if i remember correctly what was said at the last one.

vienne86

1159 positive swabs, 12.63% positivity rate in last 24 hours.

What Username Guidelines

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Why would life not go back to normal once the most vulnerable and hcw are vaccinated?

If the most vulnerable are not dying and the hcw can stay working then case numbers won't really matter

Yeah, the worry I have is that if the vaccine does not stop transmission but does stop severe illness, how can we disconnect the idea of case numbers versus hospitalisations. We’ve been primed to react to case numbers and it’s difficult to tie cases to hospitalisations as we’ve had varying percentages per wave that depends on testing availability.

In theory you could have 100% vaccinated and 20,000 cases a day with next-to-no hospitalisations, what are the limits to reopen everything? Even when we had 4 cases during the summer and Tony was concerned, what does he want to see before he’s no longer concerned?

aisling86

vienne86 wrote: »

1159 positive swabs, 12.63% positivity rate in last 24 hours.

One would imagine there isn't much of a backlog so will be interesting to see how this corresponds to cases later today.

mirrorwall14

vienne86 wrote: »

1159 positive swabs, 12.63% positivity rate in last 24 hours.

Ah feck. That’s high positivity

KrustyUCC

Jeez that's a high positivity rate

KrustyUCC

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Yeah, the worry I have is that if the vaccine does not stop transmission but does stop severe illness, how can we disconnect the idea of case numbers versus hospitalisations. We’ve been primed to react to case numbers and it’s difficult to tie cases to hospitalisations as we’ve had varying percentages per wave that depends on testing availability.

In theory you could have 100% vaccinated and 20,000 cases a day with next-to-no hospitalisations, what are the limits to reopen everything? Even when we had 4 cases during the summer and Tony was concerned, what does he want to see before he’s no longer concerned?

I'd love to know the answer to that myself

Tony will always be concerned about something

ninebeanrows

One would imagine we will have 10 more days of worrying case numbers

Let's hope impact on hospitals isnt too much

Avoation1091

Tony will be happy when everyones vaccinated, zero cases, zero deaths and zero hospitalizations & ICU.

KrustyUCC

Avoation1091 wrote: »

Tony will be happy when everyones vaccinated, zero cases, zero deaths and zero hospitalizations & ICU.

I'd suggest Tony will never be happy so

We're going to keep getting cases and 100% of people won't get vaccinated

bennyl10

That’s a very worrying positivity rate.

Hospitals aren’t going to be able to cope if this keeps up.

Stheno

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Ah feck. That’s high positivity

I'm not really bothered about the daily numbers this week

That positivity suggests about 10.5k tests

I think the numbers over a week will be more informative tbh

seamus

I think we can all agree that's a bad day for swabs. We can spin the old "low number of tests" line, but even half that positivity rate would still be a bad fvcking day.

I'd expect to see it vary a bit like that until the end of this week, but hopefully if people have got their sh1t together and locked themselves down after Stephenseseses day, then we may start to see some light around the end of next week - 8/9 January.

Either way the indications are all very poor. Cancel your plans, stay at home. Eat all the food and drink all the drink you still have left over.

Stheno

seamus wrote: »

I think we can all agree that's a bad day for swabs. We can spin the old "low number of tests" line, but even half that positivity rate would still be a bad fvcking day.

I'd expect to see it vary a bit like that until the end of this week, but hopefully if people have got their sh1t together and locked themselves down after Stephenseseses day, then we may start to see some light around the end of next week - 8/9 January.

Either way the indications are all very poor. Cancel your plans, stay at home. Eat all the food and drink all the drink you still have left over.

I'd not expect improvements that quick as I'm not optimistic that people will stay home new years eve tbh, I think people may have an attitude of " well we met up for Christmas and it was finw" and do it again for New Years.

Not everyone but enough that it will just add fuel to the flames

I'm starting to think the whole of January will be unpleasant to say the least

ninebeanrows

Stheno wrote: »

I'm not really bothered about the daily numbers this week

That positivity suggests about 10.5k tests

I think the numbers over a week will be more informative tbh

Positive Swabs
1,159
in the last 24 hours
Positivity Rate
12.63%
in the last 24 hours
Swabs Completed
9,177
in the last 24 hours

ninebeanrows

That London variant is obviously rampant

ninebeanrows

I'd not lose sight of the fact these sorts of positivity rates were left unchecked across many parts of europe for months but that was with a less virulent version

Only hope is this more virulent version is less deadly

Unfortunately with these rates I'd anticipate non essential retail will be ordered to shut after tomorrows cabinet meeting

cnnc

Does the 12.63% positive rate relate solely to community testing? Or is it that the number of serial tests has fallen over the Christmas break?

cameramonkey

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

That London variant is obviously rampant

Is that the one everyone catches when they go on the lash at Christmas with in groups and no social distancing?

ninebeanrows

cnnc wrote: »

Does the 12.63% positive rate relate solely to community testing? Or is it that the number of serial tests has fallen over the Christmas break?

It's the percentage of positive swabs from the tests in last 24hrs to midnight

coastwatch

A GP on radio this morning was saying some people with symptoms had delayed contacting GP and getting referred for a test before Christmas.
Those tests coming through now would increase the positivity rate.

cnnc

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It's the percentage of positive swabs from the tests in last 24hrs to midnight

But who are the swabs taken from? Does it include hospital workers and factory workers?

Avoation1091

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I'd not lose sight of the fact these sorts of positivity rates were left unchecked across many parts of europe for months but that was with a less virulent version

Only hope is this more virulent version is less deadly

Unfortunately with these rates I'd anticipate non essential retail will be ordered to shut after tomorrows cabinet meeting

Why? Theres been very little cases from non essential retail? Leo and coveney have said this. Much bigger impact in closing them indefinitely.

Derek Zoolander

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

That London variant is obviously rampant

Is there any evidence of that - considering positivity was close to 10% across a much larger sample size over the last few days and we know that people were socialising... surely 12% would be expected without any rampant variant

ninebeanrows

Avoation1091 wrote: »

Why? Theres been very little cases from non essential retail? Leo and coveney have said this. Much bigger impact in closing them indefinitely.

NPHET have recommended it and cases are spiralling

I wouldn't think itll be shut for 8 weeks just 3 or 4 until things stabilise

Theybe closed non essential retail in most European countries in response to latest surge, itll add .2 or .3 to R and if we plan to open schools itll be a necessary trade off unfortunately

ninebeanrows

Derek Zoolander wrote: »

Is there any evidence of that - considering positivity was close to 10% across a much larger sample size over the last few days and we know that people were socialising... surely 12% would be expected without any rampant variant

10% of what,?

The large samples of 20 and 23k tests before Christmas had pos rates of 5-6%

Stheno

coastwatch wrote: »

A GP on radio this morning was saying some people with symptoms had delayed contacting GP and getting referred for a test before Christmas.
Those tests coming through now would increase the positivity rate.

Did they delay getting tested so they could avoid isolating over Christmas?