Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

coastwatch

Stheno wrote: »

Did they delay getting tested so they could avoid isolating over Christmas?

That's what I took from it.

leanin2019

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

NPHET have recommended it and cases are spiralling

I wouldn't think itll be shut for 8 weeks just 3 or 4 until things stabilise

Theybe closed non essential retail in most European countries in response to latest surge, itll add .2 or .3 to R and if we plan to open schools itll be a necessary trade off unfortunately

European countries with full lockdown have cases numbers that are much higher than Ireland generally speaking, granted that gap is closing

Ger Roe

Stheno wrote: »

Did they delay getting tested so they could avoid isolating over Christmas?

That's what the Doc said, people waited to have their Christmas dinner with their family and probably passed infections on.

Stheno

Ger Roe wrote: »

That's what the Doc said, people waited to have their Christmas dinner with their family and probably passed infections on.

Wow

CIARAN_BOYLE

Avoation1091 wrote: »

Why? Theres been very little cases from non essential retail? Leo and coveney have said this. Much bigger impact in closing them indefinitely.

I don't trust this opinion. It's basically impossible to trace a case to retail. If I was a case and none of my established close contacts were cases my case will be listed as unknown community transmissions.

The contact tracers won't ask what shops I was at (unless I tell them I was in close contact with someone for a sustained period of time while in a shop).

So non essential retail has no established cases. Unidentified community transmissions is pretty high though.

Some people will say if unidentified community transmission is high we have to shut down places like hospitality and retail despite large case numbers not being established.

Others will say we haven't established cases there so why we do anything. There is not strategy here to deal with non identified community transmission in my opinion.

I know which approach I personally am more comfortable with.

wadacrack

Current swab numbers have nothing to do with Christmas day btw. Theirs an incubation period with the virus. Its likely to get far worse

1654 cases in northern Ireland today.

CalamariFritti

awec wrote: »

We have no real idea what the true spread of the virus is now.was in March.

fyp

niallo27

wadacrack wrote: »

Current swab numbers have nothing to do with Christmas day btw. Theirs an incubation period with the virus. Its likely to get far worse

Most people were out on the piss 10 to 14 days ago though much worse than Christmas Dinner.

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

1654 cases in northern Ireland today.

Over 48 hours

TheDriver

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I'd suggest Tony will never be happy so

We're going to keep getting cases and 100% of people won't get vaccinated

That sentiment about Tony is spot on. NPHET wanting non essential retail to close and if they get that through, then you can be guaranteed it'll be gyms next or the outdoor team sports. The minute we were close to the Dec 1 reopening, the guns were out from NPHET.

Stheno

[Deleted User] wrote: »

1654 cases in northern Ireland today.

That figure is over the past two days

Russman

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I don't trust this opinion. It's basically impossible to trace a case to retail. If I was a case and none of my established close contacts were cases my case will be listed as unknown community transmissions.

The contact tracers won't ask what shops I was at (unless I tell them I was in close contact with someone for a sustained period of time while in a shop).

So non essential retail has no established cases. Unidentified community transmissions is pretty high though.

Some people will say if unidentified community transmission is high we have to shut down places like hospitality and retail despite large case numbers not being established.

Others will say we haven't established cases there so why we do anything. There is not strategy here to deal with non identified community transmission in my opinion.

I know which approach I personally am more comfortable with.

This makes a lot of sense. Glynn was asked this at the last presser and (l’m paraphrasing here) said that there had been four thousand odd cases in the previous two weeks and three thousand were unidentified transmission. It was in response to some journo asking about the “no cases traced back to hospitality” headline that was doing the rounds. He was basically saying the cases have to be coming from somewhere.

Turtwig

Ger Roe wrote: »

That's what the Doc said, people waited to have their Christmas dinner with their family and probably passed infections on.

Oh Ffs!

Stheno

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Positive Swabs
1,159
in the last 24 hours
Positivity Rate
12.63%
in the last 24 hours
Swabs Completed
9,177
in the last 24 hours

Does anyone have the link to the site these are published on?

Stheno

Russman wrote: »

This makes a lot of sense. Glynn was asked this at the last presser and (l’m paraphrasing here) said that there had been four thousand odd cases in the previous two weeks and three thousand were unidentified transmission. It was in response to some journo asking about the “no cases traced back to hospitality” headline that was doing the rounds. He was basically saying the cases have to be coming from somewhere.

Part of it is lack of detailed contact tracing, are they still only going back 48 hours?

And do they even ask about recent travels?

KrustyUCC

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

CruelSummer

It’s time for less hysteria and more critical thinking for 2021.
To Prof Luke O’Neil, thankfully I didn’t see any of our senior citizens sitting close to windows catching their death of cold.
To Gabriel Scally and others who spent 2020 trying to interfere with every aspect of our lives to further their own careers, your comment re cancelling Christmas until June - attempting to interfere in public holidays and throw Ireland into a cauldron of misery while we watched the rest of the world mark the occasion, shame on you.
To Dr Colm Henry, shame on you too for suggesting people already in Ireland from the U.K. should eat their Christmas dinner in their room like they’re the new leper’s of 21st Century.

Yes cases will go up. It’s January. Flu would be rampant now if we didn’t have Covid. Hospitals cannot cope at the best of times at this time of year. I expect this to be slanted into a ‘Covid is overwhelming’ Irish hospitals storyline. Instead of the actual storyline which is ‘Covid is adding to our already overcrowded and underfunded hospitals. And instead of investing in them, we’ll keep throwing money at people to keep them at home.’

AdamD

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I don't trust this opinion. It's basically impossible to trace a case to retail. If I was a case and none of my established close contacts were cases my case will be listed as unknown community transmissions.

The contact tracers won't ask what shops I was at (unless I tell them I was in close contact with someone for a sustained period of time while in a shop).

So non essential retail has no established cases. Unidentified community transmissions is pretty high though.

Some people will say if unidentified community transmission is high we have to shut down places like hospitality and retail despite large case numbers not being established.

Others will say we haven't established cases there so why we do anything. There is not strategy here to deal with non identified community transmission in my opinion.

I know which approach I personally am more comfortable with.

We got cases down to double digits in the summer with supermarkets open and frankly, if you could catch it by brushing past somebody in Pennys, cases would have been tenfold higher throughout this pandemic.

ninebeanrows

KrustyUCC wrote: »

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

I am not sure how accurate the confirmed case data is at the moment as I am sure we over 1000 cases confirmed on one day recently?

TonyMaloney

AdamD wrote: »

We got cases down to double digits in the summer with supermarkets open and frankly, if you could catch it by brushing past somebody in Pennys, cases would have been tenfold higher throughout this pandemic.

It's a seasonal virus

Golfman64

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

NPHET have recommended it and cases are spiralling

I wouldn't think itll be shut for 8 weeks just 3 or 4 until things stabilise

Theybe closed non essential retail in most European countries in response to latest surge, itll add .2 or .3 to R and if we plan to open schools itll be a necessary trade off unfortunately

It will take about 3 weeks post the initial restrictions kicking in this week until we see a drop in cases, most likely. At that point, a consideration of a reduction of (or further) restrictions should be made.

Turtwig

CruelSummer wrote: »

It’s time for less hysteria and more critical thinking for 2021.

The rest of your post didn't adhere to your opening statement.

KrustyUCC

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I am not sure how accurate the confirmed case data is at the moment as I am sure we over 1000 cases confirmed on one day recently?

I thought so too

That sites usually fairly good

Russman

Stheno wrote: »

Part of it is lack of detailed contact tracing, are they still only going back 48 hours?

And do they even ask about recent travels?

Absolutely the lack of detailed tracing is the issue, I think it would show up some uncomfortable truths if they went back 14 days. A friend of mines son caught it back in September and his list of contacts that he wrote out in advance of the tracers calling was 35 people, but they only went back 48hrs at that point anyway. I’m not 100% sure tbh if they still only go back the two days but I think it’s still the case.

KrustyUCC

Of is that HSE testing alone on that site?

seamus

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I am not sure how accurate the confirmed case data is at the moment as I am sure we over 1000 cases confirmed on one day recently?

It's pulling data direct from the Government source but it's gotten confused because the numbers for 25th and 26th haven't been entered into the Government source yet, but the 27th has.

Martina1991

Stheno wrote: »

Part of it is lack of detailed contact tracing, are they still only going back 48 hours?

And do they even ask about recent travels?

Some people aren't giving a f*ck anymore.

https://twitter.com/DrNuala/status/1343507786131509248?s=19

CIARAN_BOYLE

Russman wrote: »

Absolutely the lack of detailed tracing is the issue, I think it would show up some uncomfortable truths if they went back 14 days. A friend of mines son caught it back in September and his list of contacts that he wrote out in advance of the tracers calling was 35 people, but they only went back 48hrs at that point anyway. I’m not 100% sure tbh if they still only go back the two days but I think it’s still the case.

I'll agree that contact tracing could be improved in a big way.

Maybe it should be detailed contact tracing for 48 hours and taking what information people have available easily for longer periods.

I don't know, I don't think the tracing teams can do the work for detailed contact tracers for 2 weeks but it needs to be better.

seamus

Stheno wrote: »

Part of it is lack of detailed contact tracing, are they still only going back 48 hours?

And do they even ask about recent travels?

IIRC they were going back seven days but they have reverted to 2 days again now.

Anecdotally the contact tracing team now appear to be 4-5 days behind in contacting new cases. With this caseload two months ago, we had that "blip" where 2,000 people were asked to do their own contact tracing.

I wouldn't be surprised if we're on the verge of that again and anyone who has at all been in contact with a confirmed case will be asked to restrict their movements for 14 days and won't get a call.