Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

Probes

seamus wrote: »

It's not "taken over" in Denmark, it's been detected there.

It hasn't taken over anywhere except London and the surrounding region.

You're right, it's probably about 1 in 20 or 1 in 10 at the moment and in two weeks or so it will be dominant in Denmark most likely. Denmark has also been on a decrease in cases so will be interesting to see if that continues.

https://twitter.com/MadsAlbertsen85/status/1345299161118343174?s=20

ixoy

Deleted User wrote: »

So it's agreed that some people will only show symptoms of the virus on day 14.

Yes but you're saying we don't have a view of the impact of Christmas Day. We do - we may not have the full view but we're getting a good picture.

iamwhoiam

Deleted User wrote: »

From the 3rd onwards for Christmas day.

25 plus 5 is 30 .

LessOutragePlz

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Damn, you better head over to the WHO and let them know they are wrong.

On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however it can take up to 14 days.

https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_3

How many times does this have to be explained to you?

You are using the furthest day possible ie the 14th day to back up your narrative that the rise in cases is due to the new strain.

When in reality the average time it takes for someone that is infected to display symptoms is 5-6 days.

You are just another example of people seeking to push an agenda by manipulating the statistics in your favour.

How stupid do you think we are?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Damn, you better head over to the WHO and let them know they are wrong.

On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however it can take up to 14 days.

https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_3

Up to

You are claiming infections today are as a result of exposure 2 weeks ago, whereas in the real world this is only a tiny fraction. Most people developing symptoms today will have been exposed since New years eve. There may be the odd case going back to the 22nd. But these are the rare exception

caveat emptor

May aswell prepare for the variant to be dominant. Seriously the debate is over lads.

Viral adaptation in action: Müller plots showing the relative spread of the Spanish 20A.EU1 (B.1.177) and the UK VOC 20B/501Y.V1 SARS-CoV2 variant lineages. With a generation time of 6.5 days, this multinomial fit estimates that these strains are 21% and 67% more contagious.

seamus

Probes wrote: »

You're right, it's probably about 1 in 20 or 1 in 10 at the moment and in two weeks or so it will be dominant in Denmark most likely. Denmark has also been on a decrease in cases so will be interesting to see if that continues.

https://twitter.com/MadsAlbertsen85/status/1345299161118343174?s=20

Roughly the same here in Ireland.
The overall point here is that our current surge is not down to the new variant, at all. Whether it takes over or not, doesn't really matter. We've ballsed this up all on our own, we haven't been blindsided by a suddenly more infectious variant.

Golfman64

caveat emptor wrote: »

The fact is

• you can book flights from the 7th from the UK.
• the strain is dominant there
• NI never stopped flights
• if it is becoming the dominant strain there
• It will de the dominant one here 100%.

Flights have continued to operate from the Republic of Ireland to the U.K since the travel ban for inbound passengers was announced. Firstly, there is no restriction on passengers travelling to and entering the U.K so these flights will be taking passengers on the outbound leg for sure. On the return leg, they will either be empty, flying cargo or also including people who have received state approval to travel from the U.K to Ireland. Think returning residents, essential services etc. We are back to March again with people looking at the arrivals board of Dublin Airport and losing their minds. Cargo and essential workers will be likely the biggest revenue contributor to these flights at the moment. After that, those that do travel should be following the agreed common EU travel policy. An additional requirement of a pre-flight negative covid test less than 72 hours prior to departure would be a useful addition during this stage of the pandemic in my opinion.

I have no doubt we will see the ban either extended in the short term or more likely a mandatory pre-flight Covid negative test required from the 7th.

Eivor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The Vaccines offer what?

you can still get infected,
You can still die from Covid,
You still have to wear a mask,
You still have to social distance,
Long term immunity is unknown,
Long Term health issues are unknown.

Talk of the Vaccine not working on the African Strain, UK Strain running rampant, and now the Dormant strain in the UK, possibly Ireland.

You talk about weather improving by March, it was March last year things started going south and we ended up in a lockdown.

What we do know is that this virus mutates, and it mutates to a worse state.

If all of that is the case we may as well open up everything and let it rip cause there’s not much we can do so.

Probes

seamus wrote: »

Roughly the same here in Ireland.
The overall point here is that our current surge is not down to the new variant, at all. Whether it takes over or not, doesn't really matter. We've ballsed this up all on our own, we haven't been blindsided by a suddenly more infectious variant.

Quite possible. To me it seems like the virus is exceptionally transmissible in December - February. Potentially in March we may get some respite through the weather and longer days, although I seem to remember that March weather last year was particularly nice which probably helped us.

Probes

Eivor wrote: »

If all of that is the case we may as well open up everything and let it rip cause there’s not much we can do so.

It's not the case, no one in the vaccine arm of the Oxford trial died or even got severe Covid. They may not stop transmission, but they stop you bearing the brunt of the disease.

caveat emptor

seamus wrote: »

Roughly the same here in Ireland.
The overall point here is that our current surge is not down to the new variant, at all. Whether it takes over or not, doesn't really matter. We've ballsed this up all on our own, we haven't been blindsided by a suddenly more infectious variant.

I'd agree with that Seamus. But I think we are about to be, at the worst possible time too. There have been more detected cases in kids, that's why they've closed the schools. That's not to say it affects kids more in terms of illness but it means the mantra that "kids don't spread it" doesn't hold any more.

If the lockdown gets cases to a low level in the community then it may be safe to reopen.

If it is more transmissible the the R 0 of the disease has changed so it's a case of what to close to get it under control? Pick and Mix approach now has less options.

OwenM

Probes wrote: »

Quite possible. To me it seems like the virus is exceptionally transmissible in December - February. Potentially in March we may get some respite through the weather and longer days, although I seem to remember that March weather last year was particularly nice which probably helped us.

Why nobody is talking about vitamin D makes me scratch my head every day.

FintanMcluskey

OwenM wrote: »

Why nobody is talking about vitamin D makes me scratch my head every day.

And lowering BMI at all costs

Eivor

Eivor wrote: »

If all of that is the case we may as well open up everything and let it rip cause there’s not much we can do so.

One stepped out and one stepped in again

seamus

Probes wrote: »

Quite possible. To me it seems like the virus is exceptionally transmissible in December - February. Potentially in March we may get some respite through the weather and longer days, although I seem to remember that March weather last year was particularly nice which probably helped us.

Rampat socialising is the primary cause, but the season would certainly be a secondary one; drier air indoors, closed windows and doors, and cold, damp conditions outside are all optimal conditions for viral spread.

Social distancing, mask wearing and basic hygiene will still defeat the conditions, but throw everyone into close quarters indoors without masks or distancing, and you're providing perfect conditions.

They only thing March has going for it is longer daylight hours which will make it harder for the virus to survive outdoors. But we got savaged by this virus last March/April, so there's no reason to think that we would fare any better this time around. We should be in a far better place across all metrics come Easter, but the government will have to be much stronger on the message that people should not travel across the country and should stay home for that weekend.

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

Why nobody is talking about vitamin D makes me scratch my head every day.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4912

WoollyRedHat

DOCARCH wrote: »

Two of my sister's in law were in our house Christmas Day for dinner and subsequently tested positive around New Year.

HSE did not deem me or my family close contacts....no need to be tested.

Rang GP yesterday and he said same....but he said he would send us all for tests, just in case, as I have bad asthma.

This morning we have all (4 of us) tested positive! :eek:

Just goes to show! Imagine how many positives are out there now who don't 'qualify' for testing!

Whatever about not being referred for a test because of system overload, the fact that you and your family are not being considered as close contacts/ notified of such, is highly irresponsible of the HSE.. I'd make a complaint and consider going to media about that, especially considering you have now been identified as positive.

Eivor

Probes wrote: »

It's not the case, no one in the vaccine arm of the Oxford trial died or even got severe Covid. They may not stop transmission, but they stop you bearing the brunt of the disease.

I know it’s not true. I was just pointing out the stupidity of such a negative view. If anyone believed all that, what would be the point in doing anything?

OwenM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

And lowering BMI at all costs

Not achievable in a timeframe to mitigate this, rapid weight loss has other effects including suppression of the immune system, but as a public health measure it is desirable. I think 1 euro in 12 of the HSE budget goes on obesity related diseases.

TonyMaloney

seamus wrote: »

Rampat socialising is the primary cause, but the season would certainly be a secondary one; drier air indoors, closed windows and doors, and cold, damp conditions outside are all optimal conditions for viral spread.

Social distancing, mask wearing and basic hygiene will still defeat the conditions, but throw everyone into close quarters indoors without masks or distancing, and you're providing perfect conditions.

They only thing March has going for it is longer daylight hours which will make it harder for the virus to survive outdoors. But we got savaged by this virus last March/April, so there's no reason to think that we would fare any better this time around. We should be in a far better place across all metrics come Easter, but the government will have to be much stronger on the message that people should not travel across the country and should stay home for that weekend.

Sounds like you could use some Google Mobility data to help make your case?

prunudo

Golfman64 wrote: »

Flights have continued to operate from the Republic of Ireland to the U.K since the travel ban for inbound passengers was announced. Firstly, there is no restriction on passengers travelling to and entering the U.K so these flights will be taking passengers on the outbound leg for sure. On the return leg, they will either be empty, flying cargo or also including people who have received state approval to travel from the U.K to Ireland. Think returning residents, essential services etc. We are back to March again with people looking at the arrivals board of Dublin Airport and losing their minds. Cargo and essential workers will be likely the biggest revenue contributor to these flights at the moment. After that, those that do travel should be following the agreed common EU travel policy. An additional requirement of a pre-flight negative covid test less than 72 hours prior to departure would be a useful addition during this stage of the pandemic in my opinion.

I have no doubt we will see the ban either extended in the short term or more likely a mandatory pre-flight Covid negative test required from the 7th.

I honestly don't know why the authorities here so against testing of people coming in. Its head in the sand stuff, wilfully hoping people will be good well behaved citizens and not travel but if they do they'll self isolate for 14 days after arrival.

iguana

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

And lowering BMI at all costs

Only if you have high levels of excess body fat. Not much point in a muscular person with a BMI of 22 lowering it.

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4912

There is “insufficient evidence” to support taking vitamin D solely to prevent or treat covid-19, say leading health bodies.1

So there’s insufficient evidence with regards to solely preventing or treating it. Nobody is saying it’s a panacea but in that same report :

The panel agreed that low vitamin D status was associated with more severe outcomes from covid-19.

So there is a correlation with vit D deficiency and an increased change of getting a bad dose. What’s the problem with recommending it to the public? It’s not bulletproof in the same way masks can potentially help reduce the viral load passing among people which in turn can reduce the severity of a case.

I don’t get it at all. The best I’ve seen in terms of VIT D against promoting it is that there’s no definitive evidence as to how much it might help. After nearly a year why are we still debating it?

Eivor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

One stepped out and one stepped in again

I don’t know what that’s supposed to mean

schmoo2k

Deleted User wrote: »

When will you begin to see symptoms?

On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however it can take up to 14 days.

https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_3

So this means,

If you were infected Christmas day the infection figures should start to show from around 3rd January at the earliest, or 8th Jan latest.

Not even close to being correct.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

May aswell prepare for the variant to be dominant. Seriously the debate is over lads.

Why did 20A.EU1 morph into Other at the end of December? Could the post brexit UK systems not tolerate something with EU in the name?

Mwengwe

tigger123 wrote: »

How is it that we are streaking to the top of the international table on Covid 19 infections?

What the hell were people doing in the month of December?

It's crazy. Must be a fair few superspreader events in there.

bennyl10

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

And lowering BMI at all costs

BMI is a failed metric, so not really.

Helping lower obesity sure,

but someone who has more muscle than fat will have a higher BMI

OwenM

Drumpot wrote: »

So there’s insufficient evidence with regards to solely preventing or treating it. Nobody is saying it’s a panacea but in that same report :



So there is a correlation with vit D deficiency and an increased change of getting a bad dose. What’s the problem with recommending it to the public? It’s not bulletproof in the same way masks can potentially help reduce the viral load passing among people which in turn can reduce the severity of a case.

I don’t get it at all. The best I’ve seen in terms of VIT D against promoting it is that there’s no definitive evidence as to how much it might help. After nearly a year why are we still debating it?

Vitamin D toxicity is a thing too and some real units are going to go out there and really do a number on themselves, it takes weeks to manifest and weeks to abate so by the time it's diagnosed you are in trouble.