Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

niallo27

Eod100 wrote: »

I don't think anyone can know that for definite but based on past experiences I think odds are they wouldn't tbh.

Based on past experience, this is exactly what they have done, every single time.

wadacrack

1, 300 cases in the North. December 26th restrictions beginning to have an effect.

https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1346458617617264640

titan18

niallo27 wrote: »

The problem is when we close things we are one of the slowest in Europe at reopening anything, its peoples job, livelihoods, mortgages, family that are severely affected.

True, way I'd like to see it go is hard lockdown and once we get cases down a good bit start reopenong stuff like non essential retail, hairdressers and gyms. Leave hospitality off until cases either drop a lot (which I think will take a while) or enough vaccines are there that you can reopen them.

Dressoutlet

If they say bubbles are allowed then they need to make it clear its 1 bubble. Ie, you and your parents are 1 bubble. Your parents shouldn't have another child in another bubble and you shouldn't have a friend in another bubble. I see this all the time on SM. People with 5 and 6 bubbles.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

Again, 15-30 contacts per person for some explains it all. Add in the high number of cases in the most socially active group of 19-24 and it is not all that surprising but nobody expected these levels of numbers.

Yeah think Prof Nolan said with exponential growth a small change in R number can have massive impact on cases. Modelling is far from a perfect science so can't see how they're expected to know exactly how bad things would have got.

They can't win either because if they were overly cautious and didn't then pan out because restrictions weren't eased (or even if they were) would be usual criticism of ''fearmongers'' and all that.

caveat emptor

niallo27 wrote: »

Why didn't NPHET recommend a full shutdown at the start of December, why were they ok with retail opening and Hospitality or home visits being allowed. If NPHET had advised a full lockdown the same as march at the start of December, government would have compromised with much harsher restrictions than we ended up with. They know how it works, advise the worst and compromise due to economy concerns. Why didn't NPHET know we would have so many cases when posters on here knew or maybe just maybe everyone just ****ed up and we were all caught on the hop.

Sorry Niall. How is that NPHET's fault? They said you can open either Gastropubs / restaurants or have households visits to keep cases at a low enough level to have a relatively normal Christmas.

Government decided to do both i.e have cake and eat it too. No real restrictions on Christmas and certainly not enforced. It was at a high enough level going into Christmas for it to explode when we all had a nice Christmas.

Now kids can't go to school and people getting hospital appointments cancelled. It's not their job to guess what the gov will do then go lower.

coastwatch

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Numbers on Grafton Street feels somewhere between March/April lockdown and October November.

Although that may be the weather its a good sign.

Is the fox back yet?

Will Yam

is_that_so wrote: »

Again, 15-30 contacts per person for some explains it all. Add in the high number of cases in the most socially active group of 19-24 and it is not all that surprising but nobody expected these levels of numbers.

Over what period is the number of contacts measured?

niallo27

Russman wrote: »

Honestly I'd say NPHET, for all that they are concerned purely about public health, knew they'd be wasting their breath advising retail staying closed in the run up to Christmas and also leaving themselves open to the charge of ".....are these guys on planet earth at all ? close shops at Christmas, wtf ...."

Also your last sentence too, I don't think anyone thought there would be as much socialising as there actually was, rightly or wrongly. Lots of people don't count the "I only dropped in to see aunty Mary for 10 minutes and dropped off a pudding to Jim on the way back..." as socialising. Partially understandably in fairness.

That's a bit of cop out in fairness from them, its only advice, its up to the government to decide. If they thought the threat was that real they should have said it, but my point is more i dont think anyone could have envisaged how bad things could have got so we should quit playing the blame game and just get on with it.

Eod100

niallo27 wrote: »

Based on past experience, this is exactly what they have done, every single time.

So they're meant to second guess government each time because government choose not to follow their advice?

Will Yam

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry Niall. How is that NPHET's fault? They said you can open either Gastropubs / restaurants or have households to keep cases at a low enough level to have a relatively normal Christmas.

Government decided to both i.e have cake and eat it too. No real restrictions on Christmas and certainly not enforced. It was at a high enough level going into Christmas for it to explode when we all had a nice Christmas.

Now kids can't go to school and people getting hospital appointments cancelled. It's not their job to guess what the gov will do then go lower.

How would you suggest they enforce Christmas Day restrictions?

niallo27

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry Niall. How is that NPHET's fault? They said you can open either Gastropubs / restaurants or have households to keep cases at a low enough level to have a relatively normal Christmas.

Government decided to both i.e have cake and eat it too. No real restrictions on Christmas and certainly not enforced. It was at a high enough level going into Christmas for it to explode when we all had a nice Christmas.

Now kids can't go to school and people getting hospital appointments cancelled. It's not their job to guess what the gov will do then go lower.

Why did they give the choice though, why allow full retail to open. On the bolded point, maybe your right, they should have gone for a full lockdown like march with nothing open, why did they not advise this.

Gael23

Schools closed until at least the end of the month.
Only decision. Now for NOHET to answer how they have failed in their bread

TonyMaloney

niallo27 wrote: »

Why didn't NPHET recommend a full shutdown at the start of December, why were they ok with retail opening and Hospitality or home visits being allowed. If NPHET had advised a full lockdown the same as march at the start of December, government would have compromised with much harsher restrictions than we ended up with. They know how it works, advise the worst and compromise due to economy concerns. Why didn't NPHET know we would have so many cases when posters on here knew or maybe just maybe everyone just ****ed up and we were all caught on the hop.

Niall, I think you should read what NPHET said on hospitality in its entirety

https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1346223768943947782?s=20

niallo27

Eod100 wrote: »

So they're meant to second guess government each time because government choose not to follow their advice?

No they are supposed to give exact advise that was needed, a full lockdown like March. None of this, no point in giving advise because the government will ignore it.

KrustyUCC

They should have just said schools closed until after midterm as no way schools will be back for only a week

How Soon Is Now

The shops opening for basically the whole month of December was a big turning point. I cant speak for the rest of the country but Dublin city centre considering what where in the middle of was a joke over those few weeks.

Shops where packed people where hanging around chatting in cafes etc etc. An awful lot of these people where on regular nights out either in pubs/restaurants or in peoples houses threw out the month as well. Now we have people all around us sick and cases are all over the place the testing system has gone out the window.

I done all my shopping online this year I don't know why most other people couldn't of either or at least have some kind of strict click and collect service.

Anyway its to late now we could of kept things simple seen family and kept things safe but far to many took the piss.

titan18

Gael23 wrote: »

Schools closed until at least the end of the month.
Only decision. Now for NOHET to answer how they have failed in their bread

Not NPHET who failed, the government did by reopening so much when advised against it. I blame people too who took the piss with it.

Nothing against anyone who went out 2 or 3 times in the period. I didn't myself but it's understandable people would do that. The people who decided to gorge themselves going out 10+ times though need a slap

niallo27

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Niall, I think you should read what NPHET said on hospitality in its entirety

https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1346223768943947782?s=20

Why not advise against closing both and why nothing on retail. Why is everyone ignoring retail, there should have been zero social visits recommended.

Will Yam

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Kids shouldn't be back in school until teachers are vaccinated

Kids should be back in school the minute nphet form the view that the population movement around school attendance no longer represents a risk to public health greater than the benefits of education.

Russman

niallo27 wrote: »

That's a bit of cop out in fairness from them, its only advice, its up to the government to decide. If they thought the threat was that real they should have said it, but my point is more i dont think anyone could have envisaged how bad things could have got so we should quit playing the blame game and just get on with it.

I'm only purely speculating as to what their thought process might have been and how, no matter insulated they are, they'd have been aware of the "Christmas" issue regardless. Maybe it didn't play into their advice or thinking.

I think ultimately nobody expected quite the levels of mixing we saw in December.

TonyMaloney

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry Niall. How is that NPHET's fault? They said you can open either Gastropubs / restaurants or have households visits to keep cases at a low enough level to have a relatively normal Christmas.

Government decided to do both i.e have cake and eat it too. No real restrictions on Christmas and certainly not enforced. It was at a high enough level going into Christmas for it to explode when we all had a nice Christmas.

Now kids can't go to school and people getting hospital appointments cancelled. It's not their job to guess what the gov will do then go lower.

NPHET weren't even allowed in the room to push back against these patently awful decisions that the cabinet went on to make.

NPHET's remit was to find a way for a "meaningful Christmas" to take place. What they spelled out looks close enough to just that. It might have lead to tighter restrictions post Christmas for a while, but nothing like we're facing now.

Hurrache

Gael23 wrote: »

Now for NOHET to answer how they have failed in
their bread

What

niallo27

Russman wrote: »

I'm only purely speculating as to what their thought process might have been and how, no matter insulated they are, they'd have been aware of the "Christmas" issue regardless. Maybe it didn't play into their advice or thinking.

I think ultimately nobody expected quite the levels of mixing we saw in December.

Yes i totally agree and the blame game is not helping us get out of this situation, we all ****ed up and we need to move on to get out of this ****show.

caveat emptor

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Niall, I think you should read what NPHET said on hospitality in its entirety

https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1346223768943947782?s=20

That's it in black and white.

The whole not acknowledging the airborne aspect of how it spreads is idiotic at this stage. Any time groups gather indoors without masks / distance AND sufficient ventilation there will be spread.

Trying to open a window in December in Ireland means you will immediately get accused of "letting the heat out of the house!". You probably be thrown out in a pub. So you can't win.

TonyMaloney

niallo27 wrote: »

Why not advise against closing both and why nothing on retail. Why is everyone ignoring retail, there should have been zero social visits recommended.

I haven't read their detailed advice in its entirety. I'm not sure what they recommended on non-essential retail.

I do know that if they'd asked for it to remain shut, Varadkar and co would have laughed in their faces

is_that_so

Will Yam wrote: »

Over what period is the number of contacts measured?

On a daily basis. It came up at the HSE briefing last week and they said recent days.

Eod100

niallo27 wrote: »

No they are supposed to give exact advise that was needed, a full lockdown like March. None of this, no point in giving advise because the government will ignore it.

Hindsight is great sure. Maybe in hindsight government could have not delayed level 5 measures previously or ignored advice on hospitality. There's no guarantee that government would have accepted the advise at the time, they were very invested in opening for Christmas.

It's all fairly moot point at this stage but think speculation should take into account the political reality at the time at least.

Sofa King Great

Russman wrote: »

Also your last sentence too, I don't think anyone thought there would be as much socialising as there actually was, rightly or wrongly. Lots of people don't count the "I only dropped in to see aunty Mary for 10 minutes and dropped off a pudding to Jim on the way back..." as socialising. Partially understandably in fairness.

We had various people say to us over Christmas- "now I know you aren't having visitors so I'll only pop in for 10 minutes"

I also had a woman down the road talk to me for fifteen minutes about how she was the most careful person around, how everyone else was breaking the rules and how she was being extra cautious - then she invited me in for a cup of tea.

Will Yam

caveat emptor wrote: »

That's it in black and white.

The whole not acknowledging the airborne aspect of how it spreads is idiotic at this stage. Any time groups gather indoors without masks / distance AND sufficient ventilation there will be spread.

Trying to open a window in December in Ireland means you will immediately get accused of "letting the heat out of the house!". You probably be thrown out in a pub. So you can't win.

You can actually.

Just dont go into a pub.