Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

TonyMaloney

cnnc wrote: »

I think there is some confusion about the 12.63% positive rate. The swabs data are based on *both* serial tests (i.e., regular testing of medical professionals and factory workers) and general community testing (i.e., people calling their GP and getting a test). There are usually about 45,000 serial tests done each week, with a positive rate of about 0.6% as of mid-December. The number of community tests varies considerably over time, recently rising to over 45,000 a week. Importantly, the positive rate on community tests is much higher at something like 7-8 per cent in mid-December.

See the data on serial vs. community testing at the link below and notice also that the 7-day swab processing total was roughly 90,000 in mid-December, roughly matching the swab data.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-and-tracing-update-23-december-2020.pdf

If factory workers or some medical professionals have gone on their Christmas holidays and are not being tested, then the number of swabs taken will go down and the positive rate for swabs will go up.



There are likely a lot of other factors at play too that pushed up swab processing right before Christmas Day and pushed it way down afterwards. Swab processors may have gone into overdrive to catch as many cases before Christmas Day as possible. Individuals may have come forward to get (potentially misplaced) peace of mind right before meeting family. Community testing may be down since the 25th as people ignore symptoms and/or fail to engage fulling with contact tracers. Alternatively, there may be issues in swab processing and/or contact tracing.

The bottom line is that tracking the overall positive rate through the swabs data is very problematic. At a minimum, you should look for the positive rate of serial tests and community tests separately.

Really interesting points, thanks.

I think some of that data might be available to us. I'll have a rummage.

UrbanFret

MOR316 wrote: »

No clue about retail closing until then. I never asked but, hospitality probably until March 27th.

Could be wrong obviously but, she's gotten it right before so

Important to cover both bases!:D

Russman

KrustyUCC wrote: »

We will wait and see if that's the case

Tony and NPHET will keep recommending they close non essential retail until the government give in

If NPHET do recommend it though, they’re not doing it for the craic.
As you say, we’ll have to wait and see. Hopefully Michael’s right and the consensus on non essential retail is that it wouldn’t effect numbers greatly.
Personally I have my doubts, it seems every sector says cases aren’t coming from their one. It can’t all be house parties so what is it ?
To date we’ve been very proactive, some might say too proactive, but I hope we don’t end up having to be reactive if things go very badly.

lukas8888

KrustyUCC wrote: »

We will wait and see if that's the case

Tony and NPHET will keep recommending they close non essential retail until the government give in

Only way they will close is if we have a number of days of near or over 2000 cases in a row.

appledrop

mike8634 wrote: »

If you got an unreal workout hoovering the house, then you ain't fit

I'm actual very fit with a low BMI. I dont mean a 5 mins job I spent 2.5 hours hoovering trust me if done properly just as good as gym workout.

Van.Bosch

lukas8888 wrote: »

Only way they will close is if we have a number of days of near or over 2000 cases in a row.

I had thought we’d see a 2,000 plus day soon - guess we’ll see when the Christmas effect comes through next week.

Bubbaclaus

appledrop wrote: »

I'm actual very fit with a low BMI. I dont mean a 5 mins job I spent 2.5 hours hoovering trust me if done properly just as good as gym workout.

It's not a workout unless you are able to flex your guns at strangers in the gym while you do it.

appledrop

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I had thought we’d see a 2,000 plus day soon - guess we’ll see when the Christmas effect comes through next week.

Yep 2 weeks from Christmas day I expect 2000+ cases maybe even before then when all mixing from Christmas comes home to roost.

Numbers only decreasing at moment due to Christmas Day /Stephens Day. Even if you needed to be tested on those days people aren't going to go for it.

wadacrack

This thread sums it up well. The world is in a very precarious position with this virus. Social distancing likely to play a big part still in 2021. Not what we want but important that we are prepared.

https://twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1343623252288155652

random_banter

no.8 wrote: »

Thats great and likely hugely beneficial... but not much use if you're a swimmer. It's not a witch hunt, restrictions should be based on hard data not speculation or grievances

+1

My other half has a back injury and running isn’t an option, nor is a long walk. Swimming keeps him sane, especially after working out of our tiny apartment for the last 9 months (and having to put up with myself as his only socialising option). Sea swimming was an option in the summer but it’s nothing compared to being able to do laps of a pool, and sea swimming isn’t an option for all in the winter (brrrr).

I noticed a great improvement in his mood when he was able to get back to it after the first lockdown. The pool is full of chemicals and incredibly socially distant, a one way system through the dressing rooms. Have seen no evidence of swimming pools being a transmission risk. Why should they close?

appledrop

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

It's not a workout unless you are able to flex your guns at strangers in the gym while you do it.

Ha ha got a good laugh from that one so true. No matter what exercise people do its good for them.

Wombatman

no.8 wrote: »

Thats great and likely hugely beneficial... but not much use if you're a swimmer. It's not a witch hunt, restrictions should be based on hard data not speculation or grievances

A swimmer? Like a fish or a mermaid or something?

People really need to cop on a bit

appledrop

I do feel for people who like to swim.

I remember years ago my dads injured his back + swimming only exercise recommended as so supportive if you have an injury.

I suppose we just don't know enough about virus to know if safe to be in water that everyone else is using even with all the chemicals.

Some gyms opened but kept pools closed due to this reason.

mandrake04

Stheno wrote: »

Michael was just in the radio saying the impact of closing non essential retail was low

But the reality is if everything else is closed people will just go for a wander around the shops to break the boredom, the next thing having a chinwag or touching stuff...it just gives people opportunity to increase unnecessary contact.

I don’t agree with closing businesses but if you close most of social outlets people just make do with something else, click and collect would be more sensible.

Jim_Hodge

appledrop wrote: »

I do feel for people who like to swim.

I remember years ago my dads injured his back + swimming only exercise recommended as so supportive if you have an injury.

I suppose we just don't know enough about virus to know if safe to be in water that everyone else is using even with all the chemicals.

Some gyms opened but kept pools closed due to this reason.

So you say close pools because you don't know the risk?
Great logic.

appledrop

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

So you say close pools because you don't know the risk?
Greta logic.

No I didn't say close them I'm just saying that's why some gyms don't want to take that risk in case they are blamed if it does cause it to spread.

AdamD

wadacrack wrote: »

This thread sums it up well. The world is in a very precarious position with this virus. Social distancing likely to play a big part still in 2021. Not what we want but important that we are prepared.

https://twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1343623252288155652

Sounds like pure scare mongering, so everyone else thinks the variants won't be an issue for vaccines except this guy?

niallo27

wadacrack wrote: »

This thread sums it up well. The world is in a very precarious position with this virus. Social distancing likely to play a big part still in 2021. Not what we want but important that we are prepared.

https://twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1343623252288155652

Prepared or not, it won't be happening on a large scale. People are sick of it, people need to get that into their heads.

Jim_Hodge

appledrop wrote: »

No I didn't say close them I'm just saying that's why some gyms don't want to take that risk in case they are blamed if it does cause it to spread.

Gyms here are looking to stay open. What gyms want to close. Pools are safer than the gym areas.

ZX7R

wadacrack wrote: »

This thread sums it up well. The world is in a very precarious position with this virus. Social distancing likely to play a big part still in 2021. Not what we want but important that we are prepared.

https://twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1343623252288155652

Another post from Twitter that contains assumptions rather than facts.

landofthetree

AdamD wrote: »

Sounds like pure scare mongering, so everyone else thinks the variants won't be an issue for vaccines except this guy?

That was before the South African African mutation appeared.

iamwhoiam

appledrop wrote: »

I do feel for people who like to swim.

I remember years ago my dads injured his back + swimming only exercise recommended as so supportive if you have an injury.

I suppose we just don't know enough about virus to know if safe to be in water that everyone else is using even with all the chemicals.

Some gyms opened but kept pools closed due to this reason.

I used to go to a pool here locally . There were often people there walking in the water post hip and knee replacements
I also met a man who walked for an hour in the pool twice a day and lost 8 stone .
Its definitely missed by many including myself .

John O.Groats

Deleted User wrote: »

I’d well believe it.
Although I doubt they’d announce it to the public that way.

There is less and less support for lockdowns each day. Quarter of a year would drive people mad.

They’ll say 6 weeks and extend and extend

Says who Jackieboy?

FlubberJones

Leave non essential and gyms etc open, close the boozers, eateries and stop people traipsing around and cramming into each others houses, we would not be in this stupid position now.

WhiteMemento9

AdamD wrote: »

Sounds like pure scare mongering, so everyone else thinks the variants won't be an issue for vaccines except this guy?

What are you talking about? This has been well documented in all the articles around the new strain. It is believed that against the current variant discovered in the Uk the vaccine will work, still not 100%. The more that it mutates though the larger the chance it has of not being effective. Almost every news article has covered this over the last week or two.

no.8

Wombatman wrote:

A swimmer? Like a fish or a mermaid or something?

Wombatman wrote:

People really need to cop on a bit

Can you please continue? I'd like to know if swimming halls are now your target (as i dared to state that many people enjoy the physical and mental benefits of swimming).
Any information to rule in or out risk factors for swimming pools with capped lane slots per session?

lukas8888

As of today there are 20,000 covid patients in hospital in England and they are coping if only just,considering Englands population is 11 times ours and we have 350 covid patients in our hospitals and NPHET are getting very worried, it is a national disgrace if we are not able to cope with many multiples of that number.

alentejo

Got f$)k, January looks grim

Windmill100000

statesaver wrote: »

A family member of mine was in hospital for 8 days with Covid back in April.
Fine now, thankfully.

The average length of stay of virus patients in hospital is 17.7 days, and for those who require an intensive care stay, 34.7 days.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-outbreaks-in-three-hospitals-severely-curtail-services-1.4407667?mode=amp

embraer170

Stheno wrote: »

I'm basing it on them finishing vaccinating the nursing homes and healthcare workers by mid Feb and seeing a sustained drop in hospitalisations and deaths as a result

But it might be overly optimistic

Is there evidence that many or most of those hospitalised are from nursing homes? I seem to remember discussions here that not a whole lot of those getting sick in nursing homes make it into hospital.