Another full lockdown looming? - mod warning in OP

Atlantic Dawn

Ubbquittious wrote: »

No not eternity. Another few years though

I see it being completely relaxed once all vulnerable and healthcare staff are vaccinated in around 6 to 8 months time. The death and ICU figures just won't justify it once this group is vaccinated.

JTMan

mea_k wrote: »

I work for non essential retail, and was due to go for mortgage in June /July it's now been pushed and pushed out again and again. With covid payments and then on the wage subsidy scheme and then back on covid payment. Im now physically feeling defeated.
With news saying all none essential retail can stay open I felt like celebrating because it ment I was step closer. But now with all the cases I'm driving myself mad. Will it go all backwards again?
I really hope I will be able to work.

I hope you are able to work too.

- 1,937 empty hospital beds.
- Plenty of ICU capacity.
- HSE has the 'slack' to respond to any surge.
- Significant other restrictions just starting to come into force.
- Low evidence that non-essential retail contributes to spread.
- Mental health crisis, not the time to be closing gyms.

Really hope that the government make the decision on Tuesday to keep restrictions as per what was agreed this week.

Bass Reeves

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What?! Unless I misheard the real push into the majority cohort (ie those who are not old/ill) will not start until June. MAybe that's a case of under-promise/over-deliver but we'll see.

If the government gets the nursing home residents, people with underlying conditions and those over 70 vaccinated the country can virtually return to normal while the rest are vaccinated If they have this cohort done by early summer the risk factor will be back 60-80%. As will sunshine is a natural killer of vaccines. That is why at this time of year cold wet conditions are the viruses friend.

I expect that we be in L3+from early March on and dropping to L2 by early May and out if lockdown by mid summer

ShaShaBear

JTMan wrote: »

- HSE has the 'slack' to respond to any surge.

Management tried to force my pregnant, asthmatic sister to work in the covid ward at her hospital because they are so short-staffed that she was their only option and they were hoping she would agree to risk it.
Not seeing a whole pile of "slack" there, to be honest.

zerosugarbuzz

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If the government gets the nursing home residents, people with underlying conditions and those over 70 vaccinated the country can virtually return to normal while the rest are vaccinated If they have this cohort done by early summer the risk factor will be back 60-80%. As will sunshine is a natural killer of vaccines. That is why at this time of year cold wet conditions are the viruses friend.

I expect that we be in L3+from early March on and dropping to L2 by early May and out if lockdown by mid summer

Nice, what year are you predicting this for ;-)

PommieBast

Ger Roe wrote: »

He was right though... figures started to rocket upwards within 48hrs.

A stopped clock is right twice a day. At the moment he probably is right, but he wanted lockdown even back in June when the curve was flat.

Charles Babbage

TheDriver wrote: »

When it will be all over, I'm looking forward to some whistle blower type of statements from people at the NPHET meetings and the manner in which things were discussed. It does appear that Dr. Tony gets his way no matter what, especially the radical change on his return from leave.
Obsessed with level 5. That level of obsession needs a visit to a psychiatrist.

Lots of people posting here are obsessed.
Plenty of post s saying don't do this and don't do that, but not many alternative suggestions.

faceman

ShaShaBear wrote: »

Management tried to force my pregnant, asthmatic sister to work in the covid ward at her hospital because they are so short-staffed that she was their only option and they were hoping she would agree to risk it.
Not seeing a whole pile of "slack" there, to be honest.

Contrast that with a hospital in south Dublin. 17 out of 90 beds occupied. More staff than patients. The hospital normally has 70/80 beds occupied this time of year.

Anyway this thread has gone waaaay off topic. To answer the OP I fear the gov will bottle it and close non essential retail next week in what will be the darkest winter in our lifetimes in this country. The government have ballsed up any sense of strategy they tried to peddle

weldoninhio

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Mask wearing has been shown to work. Just go onto the YouTube and search it. Even simple face coverings have been shown to reduce virus transmission considerably.

You are right nobody can force selfish idiots to wear a mask. The long-term effects are you get two marks behind your ears and a small mark on iyou nose that can be prevented by using a bit of moisturizer.

Ah YouTube cartoons. The height of science.

There’s literally been 1 real life experiment done on the usefulness on masks. Danmask-19.

Almost an equal amount of people with and without masks caught Covid. Masks make little to no difference to the spread of Covid as per this experiment. No cartoons, no forecast, no photoshopped mist based on talking, coughing, sneezing, an actual real life study.

Ironhead93

Can't see them going back to a full level 5 after both the taoiseach and tainiste told the media retail and gyms would not close. Wouldn't even make sense given they have very little impact on case numbers

Bass Reeves

weldoninhio wrote: »

Ah YouTube cartoons. The height of science.

There’s literally been 1 real life experiment done on the usefulness on masks. Danmask-19.

Almost an equal amount of people with and without masks caught Covid. Masks make little to no difference to the spread of Covid as per this experiment. No cartoons, no forecast, no photoshopped mist based on talking, coughing, sneezing, an actual real life study.

Mask do not protect the wearer they protect other people from.being infected by him the most likely method of transmission is physical contact. That is why hand washing and hand sanitation is very important to prevent you yourself from picking it up. The mask is to stop you from spreading it to other people will especially if you are infected showing no symptoms.

It a bit like the old Greek phalanx your shield was covering the body of you fellow soldier and the lad shield on the other side protects you. But selfish gits do not want to hear that.

OMM 0000

I'm in Japan where there isn't any sort of lockdown. We have detailed data on where the transmissions are happening, and it's almost entirely in homes.

What does this tell us?

There likely needs to be close, maskless contact for a period of time for transmission to occur in most cases.

Additionally, when cases started rising (unknown source) they thought maybe it is related to restaurants, so they limited restaurant opening hours. Within two weeks cases had dropped. This cycle happened a few times.

I think from this we can conclude brief, masked contact is very low risk, and sustained, maskless contact (home, restaurants) is risky.

So we probably shouldn't be shutting down the economy and destroying people's livelihood.

PCeeeee

RobbingBandit wrote: »

It won't all be over this is a virus it will continue to mutate and adapt with new strains only 45 days until nearly 1 billion people are on the move with Chinese new year this is barely wave 2 yet we are looking at another 24 to36 months of this minimum.

What happens after the 24 to 36 months that ends this? In the scenario you outline there seems to be no end?

Bass Reeves

OMM 0000 wrote: »

I'm in Japan where there isn't any sort of lockdown. We have detailed data on where the transmissions are happening, and it's almost entirely in homes.

What does this tell us?

There likely needs to be close, maskless contact for a period of time for transmission to occur in most cases.

Additionally, when cases started rising (unknown source) they thought maybe it is related to restaurants, so they limited restaurant opening hours. Within two weeks cases had dropped. This cycle happened a few times.

I think from this we can conclude brief, masked contact is very low risk, and sustained, maskless contact (home, restaurants) is risky.

So we probably shouldn't be shutting down the economy and destroying people's livelihood.

In general you are correct. If people wear masks and avoid contact the infecion rate is reduced. I think closing non essential retail was a mistake last time. We should have closed the gastro pubs and restaurants. Closing retail encouraged all shopping into a 20 instead of a 60 day window.

Mask less contact in pubs, restaurants and gathering in houses are the highest likely form for forms of spread. Gyms by there nature may be similar. You also have to factor in the idiots effect. Japan is a very disciplined society where personal responsibility is a fact of everyday life.

The idiot effect has to be allowed for in Ireland you only have to look at what some post to see the issues we face

Gael23

I don’t think Tony will get his way on this one.
Coventry came out the other day and said data shows non essential retail is not where cases are coming from

Ficheall

weldoninhio wrote: »

There’s literally been 1 real life experiment done on the usefulness on masks. Danmask-19.

Almost an equal amount of people with and without masks caught Covid. Masks make little to no difference to the spread of Covid as per this experiment. No cartoons, no forecast, no photoshopped mist based on talking, coughing, sneezing, an actual real life study.

And as that largely pointless study acknowledged, if I recall correctly, it obviously did not measure the effectiveness for protecting OTHERS from an infected person if they [the infected] were/weren't wearing a mask.

Happydays2020

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In general you are correct. If people wear masks and avoid contact the infecion rate is reduced. I think closing non essential retail was a mistake last time. We should have closed the gastro pubs and restaurants. Closing retail encouraged all shopping into a 20 instead of a 60 day window.

Mask less contact in pubs, restaurants and gathering in houses are the highest likely form for forms of spread. Gyms by there nature may be similar. You also have to factor in the idiots effect. Japan is a very disciplined society where personal responsibility is a fact of everyday life.

The idiot effect has to be allowed for in Ireland you only have to look at what some post to see the issues we face

Have you visited a Tokyo bar? Particularly around the train stations?

weldoninhio

Gael23 wrote: »

I don’t think Tony will get his way on this one.
Coventry came out the other day and said data shows non essential retail is not where cases are coming from

The data showed that hospitality wasn’t where the cases were coming from. Didn’t help them.

weldoninhio

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In general you are correct. If people wear masks and avoid contact the infecion rate is reduced. I think closing non essential retail was a mistake last time. We should have closed the gastro pubs and restaurants. Closing retail encouraged all shopping into a 20 instead of a 60 day window.

Mask less contact in pubs, restaurants and gathering in houses are the highest likely form for forms of spread. Gyms by there nature may be similar. You also have to factor in the idiots effect. Japan is a very disciplined society where personal responsibility is a fact of everyday life.

The idiot effect has to be allowed for in Ireland you only have to look at what some post to see the issues we face

And yet the HSPC data showed 0 clusters from hospitality over the weeks it was open.

mean gene

Gael23 wrote: »

I don’t think Tony will get his way on this one.
Coventry came out the other day and said data shows non essential retail is not where cases are coming from

I remember when they beat spurs in the cup final years ago now that was a shock.

Irish Steve

weldoninhio wrote: »

And yet the HSPC data showed 0 clusters from hospitality over the weeks it was open.

Because the data was fundamentally flawed, if you only go back 2 days for contact tracing, and the infection takes at least 4 days to become evident, you NEVER find the original source of the outbreak.

The track and trace data didn't show it, but there was plenty of local evidence a couple of months ago that the GAA match winner celebrations after a local team won the cup was the direct cause of a massive cluster in the local area, and a prime factor in that was the gatherings in several local pubs. one of which had to subsequently close as all the staff tested postitive for Covid.

MrMusician18

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Well Tony has already called for "non-essential" retail to be closed, and the Government are to meet next week so I would say he'll probably get his way yet again.

Complete nonsense of course. You can go spend hours wandering around Dunnes or Tesco's food aisles if you like, but doom awaits if you venture into the clothing or homeware sections :rolleyes:

Willfully missing the point yet again I see.

Choosehowevr.

OMM 0000 wrote: »

I'm in Japan where there isn't any sort of lockdown. We have detailed data on where the transmissions are happening, and it's almost entirely in homes.

What does this tell us?

There likely needs to be close, maskless contact for a period of time for transmission to occur in most cases.

Additionally, when cases started rising (unknown source) they thought maybe it is related to restaurants, so they limited restaurant opening hours. Within two weeks cases had dropped. This cycle happened a few times.

I think from this we can conclude brief, masked contact is very low risk, and sustained, maskless contact (home, restaurants) is risky.

So we probably shouldn't be shutting down the economy and destroying people's livelihood.

That's the problem here

We're depending on crude lockdowns and the vaccines which imo are becoming increasingly uncertain of efficacy

We're bolloxed the next time because we're not developing any systems to manage the virus without destroying the economy and people's mental health

MadYaker

weldoninhio wrote: »

And yet the HSPC data showed 0 clusters from hospitality over the weeks it was open.

Its not as simple as that. The contact tracing doesn't go back far enough to establish where most people actually picked it up. NPHET aren't saying it for no reason. They don't just make stuff up randomly like a lot of other people.

MadYaker

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

That's the problem here

We're depending on crude lockdowns and the vaccines which imo are becoming increasingly uncertain of efficacy

We're bolloxed the next time because we're not developing any systems to manage the virus without destroying the economy and people's mental health

Who's economy has been destroyed? Our economy isn't even in recession.

Flyer1

MadYaker wrote: »

Our economy isn't even in recession.

Yet......

Pitch n Putt

MadYaker wrote: »

Who's economy has been destroyed? Our economy isn't even in recession.

Keep telling yourself that.

The bill always arrives when the food is eaten.

And we’re eating plenty for the last nine months.

If you think there’s no repercussions from all this your in for a bit of a shock.

Some can see the reality of the situation not the glossed over version that many want to believe.

There’s no such thing as a free lunch.

Bass Reeves

MadYaker wrote: »

Who's economy has been destroyed? Our economy isn't even in recession.

There is none so blind as those that do not want to see.

I am semi retired now but after a lifetime of work and meeting all sorts I have come to the following conclusions.

Those that only ever see the problem never find the solution.

Looking at thing constantly negatively never leads to happiness

It easier to blame someone else than be critical of yourself.

The person who never made a mistake never did anything.

Mulling over a decision make it harder to make that decision, it's better to be sharp and decisive even if you make a mistake now and again you be getting on with it


The key to suc as and happiness

Do not listen to the Joe Duffy radio show
Do not read the problem pages.

Humberto Salazar

Yep I think so. People ignored level 5 to a large extent. Unless you pull the full trigger for six weeks, this bloody virus will stay popping up. Get it done for FFS so we can get back to normal.

FintanMcluskey

MadYaker wrote: »

Who's economy has been destroyed? Our economy isn't even in recession.

I have to stop you here.

Ireland’s domestic economy was the hardest hit in Europe according to the ERSI report in September due to the fact we had a tourism ban all Summer when Europe didn’t.

It’s costing Ireland about 3 million an hour since March just to pay for the effects of restrictions.

It’s quite likely many citizens quality of life in Ireland has improved dramatically, certainly the savings on deposit in Ireland is an enormous figure, while others quality of life have been decimated.

The disease of course is absolutely nowhere near as dangerous as first thought, but we still implement the nuclear option regardless of consequences