Another full lockdown looming? - mod warning in OP

FintanMcluskey

MadYaker wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1217/1184895-esri-economic-forecast/

I'm happy to debate about the effects of lockdowns on the economy but we need to establish the facts first.

If you are using GDP as a forecast for Ireland’s economy don’t bother.

GDP is imaginary in Ireland

GNP is more reflective.

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

Videos are not anecdotal hahahaha. Good lad.

Videos may be someone's personal accounts, so in that sense, yes, they could be considered anecdotal - but you can also look at them and see for yourself.

There is none so blind as those who refuse to see what is glaringly obvious to practically everyone else.

Anyway, the sooner the vaccine is rolled out, the better. I too would like to get back to some sort of normalcy, where I can go food shopping in an actual supermarket instead of depending on click and collect slots, or buy something I need from somewhere other then Amazon. I'd even like to go back to work.

MadYaker

Downlinz wrote: »

He's right and I believe this line of thinking entirely but it's noteworthy how this same logic is never applied to schools.

We're essentially using our budget for manageable levels of spread entirely on schools while the same other sectors are sacrificed every lockdown in the process.
Some may rightfully argue this is the best way for society to live with covid but it's disappointing nobody in NPHET or government is willing to make that statement or have that conversation. Instead we get these lies exaggerating the blame on certain sectors and types of behaviour. They may be lies for the greater good of most but they erode trust regardless.

It's not that the same logic is never applied to schools, the government has decided it's essential that schools stay open as much as possible for a variety of reasons, childrens welfare but also the effect it would have on the economy if loads of parents had to stay because they can't organise/afford childcare, particularly healthcare workers. I'm not saying I necessarily agree with the gov there but that is their line of reasoning as far as I can tell. They know it is spreading in schools but they think it's worth it. Pubs and restaurants won't and shouldn't be considered in the same way.

I'm not sure why you think they are lying or why you think that conversation isn't happening behind closed doors. Do you have evidence that suggests this is the case? Would you expect to see the closure of schools have a large effect on daily case numbers in the coming weeks once they've been closed for 2 weeks? I suppose we'll see but I suspect schools aren't contributing to the the spread as much as you think they are.

MadYaker

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

If you are using GDP as a forecast for Ireland’s economy don’t bother.

GDP is imaginary in Ireland

GNP is more reflective.

Are you saying their predictions are incorrect? Based on what?

weldoninhio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Videos may be someone's personal accounts, so in that sense, yes, they could be considered anecdotal - but you can also look at them and see for yourself.

There is none so blind as those who refuse to see what is glaringly obvious to practically everyone else.

Anyway, the sooner the vaccine is rolled out, the better. I too would like to get back to some sort of normalcy, where I can go food shopping in an actual supermarket instead of depending on click and collect slots, or buy something I need from somewhere other then Amazon. I'd even like to go back to work.

I presume all these videos are time and date stamped, with someone holding up a copy of the days newspaper. Or are they just random videos that could be last week or last year?

MadYaker

weldoninhio wrote: »

I presume all these videos are time and date stamped, with someone holding up a copy of the days newspaper. Or are they just random videos that could be last week or last year?

It doesn't matter how much evidence is shown to you, you've decided on your opinions and that's it. There's a word for that sort of attitude.

weldoninhio

MadYaker wrote: »

It doesn't matter how much evidence is shown to you, you've decided on your opinions and that's it. There's a word for that sort of attitude.

I’ll take the HSPCs data over a random on the internet. I believe the word for that is factual.

Ubbquittious

They're looming the absolute feck out of it

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

I presume all these videos are time and date stamped, with someone holding up a copy of the days newspaper. Or are they just random videos that could be last week or last year?

Yes, maybe all these various videos of people shoulder to shoulder dancing and singing in pubs, some with masks, some without, some with them dangling around their chins, or pulling them down to sing, were filmed LAST christmas.

:rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, maybe all these various videos of people shoulder to shoulder dancing and singing in pubs, some with masks, some without, some with them dangling around their chins, or pulling them down to sing, were filmed LAST christmas.

:rolleyes:

Maybe they just had tremendous foresight?

weldoninhio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, maybe all these various videos of people shoulder to shoulder dancing and singing in pubs, some with masks, some without, some with them dangling around their chins, or pulling them down to sing, were filmed LAST christmas.

:rolleyes:

Maybe. I haven’t seen any of these videos that are all over the place.

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

Maybe. I haven’t seen any of these videos that are all over the place.

Like you'd admit it if you did! :pac:

Ficheall

weldoninhio wrote: »

I’ll take the HSPCs data over a random on the internet. I believe the word for that is factual.

But you'll contradict the HSPC's mask advice?

amacca

cee_jay wrote: »

The amount of people who wear masks below their nose is quite high in my experience, I don't know why they even both wearing one in the first place if they won't wear it properly.

Yup....I look at those and think to my self what particular kind of a gob****e are you?

reminds me of that video that was doing the rounds a while back of some woman wearing a mask with a hole cut out for the mouth......

notwhoyouthink

Okay, ....

A few thoughts

First and foremost, I have nothing but sympathy for those whose incomes have jobs have been lost as a result of the pandemic. Apart from the loss of income, it is the loss of routine and structure that most people lament.

Second, having said that, I believe that we should always be following NPHET's advice to the letter of the law. A hard prolonged lock-down is now necessary because government chose to go against advice in reopening up the economy. If government continues to open up whilst case numbers are still rampant, then we will have a series of lock-down until the vaccine reaches critical mass, which will be well into the second half of the year.

Third, it has to be stressed this is a once-in-a-lifetime event. Of course, non-essential retail should be shut precisely because it is non-essential. I believe a lock-down until Easter will give us a fighting chance of a meaningful summer.

Fourth, international travel should now be banned for the next 18 months until the pandemic is over. This excludes freight transport. People don't need holidays. Most business can be done on the internet. Travel is now a luxury, and it should be discouraged.

Nobody likes these, but if we go hard and severe now, we have a better chance. Let's also not fail to recognize that NPET is protecting the population's health; all other vested interests are subservient to this.

Okay?

VeVeX

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

Okay, ....

A few thoughts

First and foremost, I have nothing but sympathy for those whose incomes have jobs have been lost as a result of the pandemic. Apart from the loss of income, it is the loss of routine and structure that most people lament.

Second, having said that, I believe that we should always be following NPHET's advice to the letter of the law. A hard prolonged lock-down is now necessary because government chose to go against advice in reopening up the economy. If government continues to open up whilst case numbers are still rampant, then we will have a series of lock-down until the vaccine reaches critical mass, which will be well into the second half of the year.

Third, it has to be stressed this is a once-in-a-lifetime event. Of course, non-essential retail should be shut precisely because it is non-essential. I believe a lock-down until Easter will give us a fighting chance of a meaningful summer.

Fourth, international travel should now be banned for the next 18 months until the pandemic is over. This excludes freight transport. People don't need holidays. Most business can be done on the internet. Travel is now a luxury, and it should be discouraged.

Nobody likes these, but if we go hard and severe now, we have a better chance. Let's also not fail to recognize that NPET is protecting the population's health; all other vested interests are subservient to this.

Okay?

Your thoughts would be absolutely valid if Covid19 was Ebola.

99nsr125

NIMAN wrote: »

To be honest, it's incredibly rare now to see an adult without a mask on in any store or shop. From my own experience, compliance is near total.

So it's some other actions that are spreading the virus, not lack of face coverings.

Yeah, it's airborne, always has been,

we never hear anything about the middle east countries that would have the female part of the population masked as convention

Cases in South Korea are rocketing off and they were held up as the example for the rest of the world

AlekSmart

Deleted User wrote: »

That’s simply not true - any store I’ve been to (and I work in retail same story) will ask anyone not wearing one to do so.

Is it not also the law at this point, rather than just “advice”?

The regulations are clear enough...

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2020/si/296/made/en/print#

Customers can be asked for sure,but the legislation stops short of them being "told" or instructed.

These Regulations require the wearing of face coverings in certain premises. A person shall not, without reasonable excuse, enter or remain in a premises where goods are sold directly to the public or a premises set out in the Schedule to the Regulations, without wearing a face covering.

Interestingly,it also falls to the Occupier,Manager or "Person in charge" of the premises to do the Facecovering thing,rather than a mere sales person..

(a) the occupier of the relevant premises,

(b) the manager of the relevant premises, and

(c) any other person for the time being in charge of the relevant premises;

Even then,the Relevant Person is'nt exactly empowered to directly refuse entry to an uncovered customer,but rather engage in some diplomacy....

(4) A responsible person shall take reasonable steps to engage with persons entering or in the relevant premises to inform them of the requirements of paragraph (1) and to promote compliance with those requirements.

Eventually all this stuff will end up in the Courts a lá Pat McDonagh's experiences....

https://www.newstalk.com/news/supermacs-ceo-hits-santa-claus-judges-personal-injury-claims-1083614

Once the NPHET's and SAGE's of the World see their dominance reduced,it will fall to the Legal Profession to finally put an end to the Pandemic issue.

In the meantime,take some succor from the Stats.....

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

2,270,523 Tests.

88,104 Positives.

3.9% Positivity Rate.

Surprisingly,the Covid Dashboard does'nt deal with Fatality ststistics,for which one has to head for the CSO's comprehensive library...

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries18/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DeathsAndCasesSeries18

A mortality rate which peaked at 74 per 1000 in April is currently at 12 per 1000.

The key to reducing transmissability is a ready supply of fresh air,which if maintained in large high-roofed floorspaces,will do a hell of a lot more than all the Facemask's in China to keep infections down.

Luckily we are well served by our entreprenurial spirited SME's in Ireland,which will also serve the post-Covid recovery well

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0616/1147843-co-clare-company-gets-102m-for-supplying-ppe-to-hse/

The HSE has paid out a total of €773m for PPE to the middle of May and the two largest payments have gone to overseas firms - the Hong Kong headquartered company, China Resources Pharmaceutical, has been paid €225.12m for PPE while South Korean based Dobu Mask has been paid €102m.

The HSE figures confirm that Aer Lingus has been paid €7.48m for transporting vital shipments of PPE from China.

EKO Integrated Service is led by Clare man, Eugene Keane, whose business background is building houses.

In a statement, the company confirmed that since 14 April it has organised 14 plane loads of varying types of gowns and gloves into Ireland dealing mainly with three different established manufacturers in China and another 16 flights are included in the HSE order.

Remember...Every Mask Matters !

notwhoyouthink

VeVeX wrote: »

Your thoughts would be absolutely valid if Covid19 was Ebola.

We don't even fully understand COVID yet, in terms of its manifestations or longer-term health implications. But one thing we do know is that it kills, and especially older, frail and immunologically compromised people

Didn't you see the footage in Northern Italian hospitals earlier this year? Have a look at Texas hospitals today, not in a good place.

corcaigh07

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

We don't even fully understand COVID yet, in terms of its manifestations or longer-term health implications. But one thing we do know is that it kills, and especially older, frail and immunologically compromised people

Didn't you see the footage in Northern Italian hospitals earlier this year? Have a look at Texas hospitals today, not in a good place.

Nothing to stop you taking your own precautions

AlekSmart

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

Okay, ....

A few thoughts

First and foremost, I have nothing but sympathy for those whose incomes have jobs have been lost as a result of the pandemic. Apart from the loss of income, it is the loss of routine and structure that most people lament.

Second, having said that, I believe that we should always be following NPHET's advice to the letter of the law. A hard prolonged lock-down is now necessary because government chose to go against advice in reopening up the economy. If government continues to open up whilst case numbers are still rampant, then we will have a series of lock-down until the vaccine reaches critical mass, which will be well into the second half of the year.

Third, it has to be stressed this is a once-in-a-lifetime event. Of course, non-essential retail should be shut precisely because it is non-essential. I believe a lock-down until Easter will give us a fighting chance of a meaningful summer.

Fourth, international travel should now be banned for the next 18 months until the pandemic is over. This excludes freight transport. People don't need holidays. Most business can be done on the internet. Travel is now a luxury, and it should be discouraged.

Nobody likes these, but if we go hard and severe now, we have a better chance. Let's also not fail to recognize that NPET is protecting the population's health; all other vested interests are subservient to this.

Okay?

Mmmm Okay....ish....but one might require a definition of "subservient"...

https://www.thejournal.ie/hse-contract-5303779-Dec2020/

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40191468.html

The HSE paid Roqu Media International Limited, a Dublin-based company with a history of managing festivals in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bulgaria, €14.1 million for the supply of intensive care Boaray and Eternity ventilators "on or about March 23" of this year as Ireland faced into its first lockdown.

It's also noteworthy that the entire issue of Ventilator use turned out to be vastly overdone in relation to CV-19.

My strong belief is that this Pandemic has now mutated into a large scale business opportunity,bringing substantial "Opportunities" to an ever increasing number of well connected entities.

Perhaps encouraging ordinarily healthy people to be more trusting of their own immune systems,whilst maintaining a normal life might be more productive in human terms ?

However,I suspect the die is now cast,and maintaining a high level of fear and mistrust in the general population is more appealing to the new politico/medical axis ?

These folks do not want a return to our version of "Normality" anytime soon !

landofthetree

If it really is 70% more contagious we will be in lockdown till 70%+ are vaccinated. But of course governments wont tell the people this.

faceman

MadYaker wrote: »

This guy does a pretty good job of explaining it actually if you read his tweets

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1306908075161518081%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fextra.ie%2F2020%2F12%2F24%2Fnews%2Firish-news%2Fno-clusters-in-pubs-restaurants-covid-week

Fook this guy and his team

So basically why publish data on outbreaks if the contact tracing only goes back 48 hours? He basically saying the report, prepared by his team, isn’t worth a crap. Competency issue #1

Furthermore, this means they have no evidence in Ireland that schools are in fact safe. Competency issue #2

We are now 10 months in to this. Other countries are carrying out more in-depth contact tracing. Are we still using 48 hours as the benchmark? Competency issue #3

Maybe they’ll use the excuse that international evidence tells us the risks. This statement renders their report a failure. Schools are *only* considered safe in environments where class size is reduced. Spain have one of the best records with schools. They reduced average class size to the low teens. Ireland has not. #competency issue #4

NPHET’s predictions have not always come to light. In fact their predictions for growth have been wrong since the start. In addition they aren’t being fully transparent with the data. Where is the data separated to show cases acquired in hospitals? Where is the data to show hospital occupation versus last year? Where is the hospital data to show people who were already in hospital prior to acquiring covid? In short, we have a data transparency issue. Competency issue #5

NPHET is headed up by someone who was at the centre of the biggest government and health scandal this century. In addition, the unfortunate circumstances in his personal life had removed him from his position for some time. There’s a massive question mark over his credibility and ability to carry out his role. #Competency issue #6

No alternate suggestions to hard lockdowns are being examined or proposed. #Competency issue #7

weldoninhio

Ficheall wrote: »

But you'll contradict the HSPC's mask advice?

As do most people on the Mask thread. How many people wash their mask daily at 60 degrees?

GT89

Maybe if businesses starting opening and people disobeyed the government restrictions we could all live normally

GT89

ReginaldSmythV wrote: »

Yet they’ve proven time and time again that they should. From day one, staff should have been told not to serve anyone without one.

If that's the case then people would just put on the mask when they get to the till

notwhoyouthink

AlekSmart wrote: »

Mmmm Okay....ish....but one might require a definition of "subservient"...

https://www.thejournal.ie/hse-contract-5303779-Dec2020/

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40191468.html



It's also noteworthy that the entire issue of Ventilator use turned out to be vastly overdone in relation to CV-19.

My strong belief is that this Pandemic has now mutated into a large scale business opportunity,bringing substantial "Opportunities" to an ever increasing number of well connected entities.

Perhaps encouraging ordinarily healthy people to be more trusting of their own immune systems,whilst maintaining a normal life might be more productive in human terms ?

However,I suspect the die is now cast,and maintaining a high level of fear and mistrust in the general population is more appealing to the new politico/medical axis ?

These folks do not want a return to our version of "Normality" anytime soon !

Thanks for your response.

But I think you are conflating lots of issues, so let me try to clarify matters in your mind

1. This is a highly infectious and virulent disease. There are people dying every day of this disease - today, to; in the coming weeks, many more. Since this is a new disease, and we have no immunity to the disease, the response so far has been appropriate. And what we are doing here is comparable to the approach of most advanced nations.

2. The tomfoolery you refer to in the articles always happens in these situations. But the exiostence of tomfoolery doesn't diminish the public health threat to the population, or the validity of the response.

3. We already know that lock-downs are effective - the disease was down to single digits in the first wave, and was down to about 200 in the second wave.

4. As far as I am concerned, the priority should be to keep our healthcare and education systems functioning.

5. There is only so much sympthathy that you can have for the owners of pubs and hotels, and the like - for years, they engaged in price gouging and made hay for the sunshine. Thety should have plenty of fodder to chew on.

faceman

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

Okay, ....

A few thoughts

First and foremost, I have nothing but sympathy for those whose incomes have jobs have been lost as a result of the pandemic. Apart from the loss of income, it is the loss of routine and structure that most people lament.

You’re not in the position many are in and can’t possibly understand the mental toll it has taken on so many people. At what point does the mental well-being of a person supersede locking down a disease that didn’t reach plague levels during vaccine trials?

wrote:

Second, having said that, I believe that we should always be following NPHET's advice to the letter of the law. A hard prolonged lock-down is now necessary because government chose to go against advice in reopening up the economy. If government continues to open up whilst case numbers are still rampant, then we will have a series of lock-down until the vaccine reaches critical mass, which will be well into the second half of the year.

Summer 2020 called and says hi

wrote:

Third, it has to be stressed this is a once-in-a-lifetime event. Of course, non-essential retail should be shut precisely because it is non-essential. I believe a lock-down until Easter will give us a fighting chance of a meaningful summer.

No study in Ireland or abroad has shown that non essential retail contributes to the spread of the virus. While a full lockdown wa a justified in March when we knew very little, we now have a lot of data to hand to tells a different story. I for one do not want decisions being made in the absence of evidence

wrote:

Fourth, international travel should now be banned for the next 18 months until the pandemic is over. This excludes freight transport. People don't need holidays. Most business can be done on the internet. Travel is now a luxury, and it should be discouraged.

That’s fine if you live in a country like the US or a self sufficient country with limited need for international trade and travel.

We know now from numerous studies that air travel is less risk than other sectors and travel bans does not eliminate risk. It delays spread by a few weeks and increase the risk of community transmission as people become more secretive with their movements.

Additionally, Ireland is a small island that is part of a union. Not everyone lives and works in the same country. People have life, love and work commitments in other countries. WHO and ECDC have guidelines and recommendations for international travel. Check out “reopen EU” if you haven’t already.

Even the EU and WHO have commented on the U.K. travel ban which as we have seen and as expected, has not stopped the spread of the new strain.

The travel argument is a dead one at this stage.

wrote:

Nobody likes these, but if we go hard and severe now, we have a better chance. Let's also not fail to recognize that NPET is protecting the population's health; all other vested interests are subservient to this.

Okay?

We went hard and severe from March to June. Look at us now.

That level of public support will never be recreated. People are no longer afraid, far beyond jaded and realising that the vast vast majority of people who do catch won’t suffer any major impact. Not saying that they’re right, I’m pointing out a hard reality.

anais

The 48 hour thing is very real and very scary. In my classroom if there is a positive case on a Monday, nobody, not even the 'Pod' aka 'group' will be deemed close contacts . (But they swing out of each other on yard across the whole class) . Because I wear a mask I will never be deemed a close contact . I depend on parents letting me know. If there is a case in a class, parents just choose to keep their kids out. We sit with all windows and door open all day, freezing and hoping for the best.

GT89

GT89 wrote: »

Maybe if businesses starting opening and people disobeyed the government restrictions we could all live normally

Except those of us who are classed as high or very high risk, who instead of being able to live normally, would be put at a much greater risk of contracting Covid by the level of community transmission that would cause.

So, you either have a very narrow view of "all living normally", or you are only considering young people in good health and with no underlying conditions.