Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

Oneiric 3

Co. Kerry tomorrow:

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I'm quietly confident of Cork city's chances of a light covering as the system sinks south and off shore....

I wouldn’t be to be honest at this stage unless changes overnight. Maybe very high ground in north cork but this seems to be downgrading run by run.

Gaoth Laidir

Only rain for Cork Airport, with a chance of sleet between 04-07 am tomorrow.
Slight chance of light snow at Belfast Aldergrove from 11 pm tonight.
Rubbitch.

CORK TAF EICK 291700Z 2918/3018 32014KT 9999 FEW015 SCT030
TEMPO 2918/2920 33016G26KT
BECMG 2923/3001 24008KT
BECMG 3003/3005 3000 -RA BR BKN005
PROB40 TEMPO 3004/3007 RASN
TEMPO 3005/3013 0500 FG BKN002
BECMG 3010/3012 02010KT
BECMG 3013/3015 35010KT 9999 NSW SCT007 BKN020
TEMPO 3015/3018 BKN007 PROB30 TEMPO 3015/3017 4000 BR=

(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE) TAF EGAA 291703Z 2918/3018 31008KT 9999 FEW014 SCT025
TEMPO 2918/2923 7000 -SHRASN SHRA SCT008 BKN014
PROB30 TEMPO 2918/2923 4000 SHRASN SCT004 BKN008
TEMPO 2923/3018 FEW002 BKN006
PROB30 TEMPO 2923/3018 1200 -SHSN SHRASN BKN001=

Pangea

Tops of cars and grass is white here in Donegal after a shower of hail there.

Goldfinch8

Sleet shower just east of Castlebar now. A good few flakes in it but real borderline stuff as is often the case. Maybe a pointer to something more promising later on in the night.

Jim Gazebo

It's freezing out herein cork. Bitter

KingJeremy

East county Galway/Tipp border...Met app is showing heavy sleet for a time tomorrow morn...hoping it thickens up to snow but even the sleet is great for now, usually seems to be February before we see a snifter of anything snow like

Donegal Ken

Risk of snow showers and some small accumulations across north Connacht and Ulster Wednesday morning with sea streamers moving in.

Rebelbrowser

KingJeremy wrote: »

East county Galway/Tipp border...Met app is showing heavy sleet for a time tomorrow morn...hoping it thickens up to snow but even the sleet is great for now, usually seems to be February before we see a snifter of anything snow like

Just one optimistic observation about this event.

Every year we have 3 or 4 threads dedicated to rain systems moving west to east that are hitting colder air and might turn to snow for some. But usually the most Met E say in their forecast is that such systems may fall as sleet or snow for a time, especially over higher ground.

This time we actually have a yellow warning from Met E. Thats not usually the case. So straight off that gives this system a much more realistic chance of generating snow, and not just over high ground.

In terms then of posts like the above noting, correctly, that the Met E app is only showing sleet for a particular location, remember again that this is a computer generated forecast for that location. The yellow warning however has of course been created by a human forecaster who is adding his/her expertise and experience to what the models are telling him/her. And the yellow warning is expressly for "...Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels..." and has been given for 13 named counties (in the Republic). So Met E do see a real, tangible, chance of low level snow in those 13 counties.

Now the Met E warning is only for a "risk", so its a long way from being a guarantee or anything like that, and since it issued there have been perceived "downgrades" on some of the models, but, still, I think there is a lot more sunbstance to this event than some of the non events we have agonised over (and through) down through the years.

Its still only a 30% shot for most places in all likelihood (maybe 60% for somewhere like Carrig on Suir), but thats a shot I'm happy to follow closely over the next 12 hours.

Lastly I think you can largely forget the models from now, the radar will be the main analytic tool from now on...

bazlers

Ok guys. I did this competition a while back and I jinxed the whole winter. Never seen it as mild. Hopfully this time will have the opposite effect. Going by some of the models it will be epic and my 20ft drift prediction might be on the cards ; ) ( if only).

Anyhow this is my thinking...
Predict the minimum temperature that will be recorded this winter (this gives you 3pts)
Predict where this occurs ( must be a met eireann site and again this gives you 2 pts)
Predict a date this will occur 3pts)
Eg. -10.3__Mullingar__Jan23.
Closing date will be 31/12/20 at 23.59.

If someone has better idea about scoring or whatever please feel free but i would prefer a mod to make that change. Anyhow i think it mightbe interesting going forward to do this if models put fantasy into reality!

NMB

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just one optimistic observation about this event.

Every year we have 3 or 4 threads dedicated to rain systems moving west to east that are hitting colder air and might turn to snow for some. But usually the most Met E say in their forecast is that such systems may fall as sleet or snow for a time, especially over higher ground.

This time we actually have a yellow warning from Met E. Thats not usually the case. So straight off that gives this system a much more realistic chance of generating snow, and not just over high ground.

In terms then of posts like the above noting, correctly, that the Met E app is only showing sleet for a particular location, remember again that this is a computer generated forecast for that location. The yellow warning however has of course been created by a human forecaster who is adding his/her expertise and experience to what the models are telling him/her. And the yellow warning is expressly for "...Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels..." and has been given for 13 named counties (in the Republic). So Met E do see a real, tangible, chance of low level snow in those 13 counties.

Now the Met E warning is only for a "risk", so its a long way from being a guarantee or anything like that, and since it issued there have been perceived "downgrades" on some of the models, but, still, I think there is a lot more sunbstance to this event than some of the non events we have agonised over (and through) down through the years.

Its still only a 30% shot for most places in all likelihood (maybe 60% for somewhere like Carrig on Suir), but thats a shot I'm happy to follow closely over the next 12 hours.

Lastly I think you can largely forget the models from now, the radar will be the main analytic tool from now on...

Very well put. Thanks

KingJeremy

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just one optimistic observation about this event.

Every year we have 3 or 4 threads dedicated to rain systems moving west to east that are hitting colder air and might turn to snow for some. But usually the most Met E say in their forecast is that such systems may fall as sleet or snow for a time, especially over higher ground.

This time we actually have a yellow warning from Met E. Thats not usually the case. So straight off that gives this system a much more realistic chance of generating snow, and not just over high ground.

In terms then of posts like the above noting, correctly, that the Met E app is only showing sleet for a particular location, remember again that this is a computer generated forecast for that location. The yellow warning however has of course been created by a human forecaster who is adding his/her expertise and experience to what the models are telling him/her. And the yellow warning is expressly for "...Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels..." and has been given for 13 named counties (in the Republic). So Met E do see a real, tangible, chance of low level snow in those 13 counties.

Now the Met E warning is only for a "risk", so its a long way from being a guarantee or anything like that, and since it issued there have been perceived "downgrades" on some of the models, but, still, I think there is a lot more sunbstance to this event than some of the non events we have agonised over (and through) down through the years.

Its still only a 30% shot for most places in all likelihood (maybe 60% for somewhere like Carrig on Suir), but thats a shot I'm happy to follow closely over the next 12 hours.

Lastly I think you can largely forget the models from now, the radar will be the main analytic tool from now on...

And now it’s turned to rain on the Met App :-/ but your observations as outlined above, Rebel, gives me hope :-D

Rebelbrowser

KingJeremy wrote: »

And now it’s turned to rain on the Met App :-/ but your observations as outlined above, Rebel, gives me hope :-D

I won't pretend that's good news though. D'oh!

barney 20v

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just one optimistic observation about this event.

Every year we have 3 or 4 threads dedicated to rain systems moving west to east that are hitting colder air and might turn to snow for some. But usually the most Met E say in their forecast is that such systems may fall as sleet or snow for a time, especially over higher ground.

This time we actually have a yellow warning from Met E. Thats not usually the case. So straight off that gives this system a much more realistic chance of generating snow, and not just over high ground.

In terms then of posts like the above noting, correctly, that the Met E app is only showing sleet for a particular location, remember again that this is a computer generated forecast for that location. The yellow warning however has of course been created by a human forecaster who is adding his/her expertise and experience to what the models are telling him/her. And the yellow warning is expressly for "...Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels..." and has been given for 13 named counties (in the Republic). So Met E do see a real, tangible, chance of low level snow in those 13 counties.

Now the Met E warning is only for a "risk", so its a long way from being a guarantee or anything like that, and since it issued there have been perceived "downgrades" on some of the models, but, still, I think there is a lot more sunbstance to this event than some of the non events we have agonised over (and through) down through the years.

Its still only a 30% shot for most places in all likelihood (maybe 60% for somewhere like Carrig on Suir), but thats a shot I'm happy to follow closely over the next 12 hours.

Lastly I think you can largely forget the models from now, the radar will be the main analytic tool from now on...

I'm 150 mtrs above sea level on the foot of the blackstairs mountains here in wexford, I'm confident we'll see snow tomorrow morning.

daniel_t1409

Once again, I am doubtful Wexford will get snow, especially if it's only a 30% shot.

mickger844posts

Met Eireann ramping a possbile snow event and Boards Weather playing it down. It really has been a strange year
Anyway having looked at latest charts i see a decent chance for mainly East Munster, South Leinster. Conditions marginal but arent they always.
Going forward nothing mild on the horizon so maybe more chances in the coming weeks.

Gaoth Laidir

Some lying snow reported at a few stations in England, mostly 200-300 m, but one lower one near Manchester (Rosethorne, 35 m amsl) has 2 cm.



Wet-bulbs are perfect throughout much of Ireland tonight but n'er a drop of precip to be had, of course.

snowstorm445

Saw the bullish Met Éireann forecast for wintry stuff here in Cork and got quite excited, this thread brought things crashing down to earth again lol. Not looking good for the area around Cork city so, might be a nice treat for the South East though

Kermit.de.frog

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Saw the bullish Met Éireann forecast for wintry stuff here in Cork and got quite excited, this thread brought things crashing down to earth again lol. Not looking good for the area around Cork city so, might be a nice treat for the South East though

Just trying to cover both bases tbh.

Fact is it's nigh on impossible to call because of the margins either way.

Some will certainly get snow, question is how many?

The precip is coming on shore now in the southwest and shortly in to south Connaught.

Gaoth Laidir

Based on the UKMO's 06Z aviation chart.

lcasey90

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Based on the UKMO's 06Z aviation chart.

Yellow area snow i presume?

munsterlegend

Seems the Arome model has this further north than originally thought. Nowcast at this stage anyway.

Gaoth Laidir

lcasey90 wrote: »

Yellow area snow i presume?

SHSN is moderate snow showers. It is valid for the unshaded area.

ninebeanrows

It could be north Corks night, good luck to all

KingJeremy

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I won't pretend that's good news though. D'oh!

...and now it doesn’t even say rain :-(
Aargh!!

Kermit.de.frog

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It could be north Corks night, good luck to all

They are definitely in with a chance

Gaoth Laidir

Airport warnings.


Moderate ground frost and weak air frost for Dublin, Casement and Knock, valid up to 1030 am tomorrow.

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 292000/301030 FROST MOD GND AND FBL AIR FCST=
EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 292000/301030 FROST MOD GND AND FBL AIR FCST=
EIKN AD WRNG 02 VALID 291900/301030 FROST MOD GND AND FBL AIR FCST=

Weak ground frost and weak air frost for Cork (up to 3 am) and Shannon (up to 1 am)

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 292000/300300 FROST FBL GND AND FBL AIR FCST=
EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 291900/300100 FROST FBL GND AND FBL AIR FCST=

Cluedo Monopoly

Can someone please post the link to the radar that shows weather type.

JCX BXC

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Can someone please post the link to the radar that shows weather type.

It's the 'Netweather' weather radar. Google netweather.

Donegal Ken

Snowing now on the N15 road between Barnesmore and Ballybofey at Lough Mourne, Donegal. Recent road cam image attached