2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

The state has already had 7 years since the first warnings of issues
In that time the state was the largest owner of property and land in the Western world
Yes times were difficult financially early on, but that changed through the years,
We could have leased a portion of that property from nama at a fraction of what is being paid to the vulture funds that purchased them

Entering long term leases with these same funds would imply that the present government has no intention of resolving the issue using a value for money approach
It then follows that those that purchase or rent their own accomodation have to pay more tax to compensate for government incompetence, inaction and outright market interference that drives up prices

Continuation of such policies will lead to state bankruptcy

The state has had opportunity after opportunity to fix this including now through the availability of land, labour and 0 cost capital. They have chosen to make the problem worse for buyers, sellers, local landlords, homeless and those that can't afford prices and rents

It is incredible that a government would willingly impose this on its citizens in a democracy

Back in 2014, David McWilliams asked who will the funds sell the assets they bought (“for 25 cent in the euro.”) to when they decide to exit. His opinion was:

“They will sell to Irish investors. Where will the Irish get the cash? Why they’ll borrow it from Irish banks and we will be back to where we started with Irish banks overleveraged to expensive Irish property.”

He got it wrong. They’re not selling to Irish investors. It appears they’re selling/leasing them back to the Irish state. The very same state they bought them off of for c. 25c in the euro only a few years ago.

At least NAMA may make a “profit” at least. I wonder what history will make of that 2012 to 2016 period?

Link to his article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/when-the-vulture-funds-move-on-our-broken-banks-will-be-right-back-where-they-started/

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

It seems odd that in 1982 the state would go to court on this and in 2021 would be largely responsible for high rents
1980's may not be too far away from repeating itself in so many contexts



Is it harmful though, those voters have sons and daughters affected by this. Their voters will also have to pay higher taxes to fund it.
Would an affodable resolution gain more votes than they loose.

Is policy more tied to the political party financiers wants moreso than their voters.

If I remember correctly apartments were always cheaper than houses in the late 90's, noughties. How come they are considerably more expensive now. What changed?

It would be stupid to think SF would resolve housing issues. Look at their wider “economic” policies and drive for a “united ireland”. The costs of that will dwarf housing, deter FDI, inhibit growth of domestic enterprises and drive companies from this country. Have you considered the impact of SF proposed taxation policies? I doubt it. Not to mention the greater societal impact of chasing a “united ireland”.
You’re so blinkered in your view you can’t see the bigger picture.
What I also find interesting is that SF support has plateaued even when the government is making such a balls on everything in this country. Kind of tell you something doesn’t it?
Government is responsible for the current mess, that is obvious. Question is how to address it in short term. They can’t do nothing.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Europe has wide range of different political parties, any country managed to push sale price down and solve affordability problem?

I don't know as am not overly familiar with the housing policies of other countries.

But the comparison is only relevant if other countries have had governments who tried solve the affordability problem with measures that they were advised would push up prices.

Are there any other countries who do this or is Ireland an outlier here as in so much else?

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

You’re so blinkered in your view you can’t see the bigger picture. What I also find interesting is that SF support has plateaued even when the government is making such a balls on everything in this country. Kind of tell you something doesn’t it? Government is responsible for the current mess, that is obvious. Question is how to address it in short term. They can’t do nothing.

For clarity I don't have any links to and have never voted SF and share the concerns raised in your post

What were SF polling prior to the last election when they were excluded from some of the debates as rte believed they were a minority party.

I believe the policies of the current parties will bankrupt us and stupidity is often defined as trying the same thing and expecting different results.

Again entering long term leases shows the will is not there to resolve it and we continue to make it worse for everyone

Cyrus

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-prosperity-overstated-by-eu-rankings-says-former-central-bank-governor-honohan-40051912.html

Former governor of the central bank tells how Ireland isnt as rich as we seem to think we are. Bang on average in the EU.

Housing market here must surely be way overvalued

"That result places Ireland at 12th – below the UK and all six of the founding members of the European Economic Community, as well as Austria and the three Nordic member states"

Can you expand your hypothesis, how does this mean houses are overvalued ? Something is only worth what someone will pay for it after all.

thefridge2006

Villa05 wrote: »

The state has already had 7 years since the first warnings of issues
In that time the state was the largest owner of property and land in the Western world
Yes times were difficult financially early on, but that changed through the years,
We could have leased a portion of that property from nama at a fraction of what is being paid to the vulture funds that purchased them

Entering long term leases with these same funds would imply that the present government has no intention of resolving the issue using a value for money approach
It then follows that those that purchase or rent their own accomodation have to pay more tax to compensate for government incompetence, inaction and outright market interference that drives up prices

Continuation of such policies will lead to state bankruptcy

The state has had opportunity after opportunity to fix this including now through the availability of land, labour and 0 cost capital. They have chosen to make the problem worse for buyers, sellers, local landlords, homeless and those that can't afford prices and rents

It is incredible that a government would willingly impose this on its citizens in a democracy

It's farcical. I suspect someone or some group are being well looked after and its not the general public. its so bad that it doesn't make sense on any level you look at it from

thefridge2006

PropQueries wrote: »

Back in 2014, David McWilliams asked who will the funds sell the assets they bought (“for 25 cent in the euro.”) to when they decide to exit. His opinion was:

“They will sell to Irish investors. Where will the Irish get the cash? Why they’ll borrow it from Irish banks and we will be back to where we started with Irish banks overleveraged to expensive Irish property.”

He got it wrong. They’re not selling to Irish investors. It appears they’re selling/leasing them back to the Irish state. The very same state they bought them off of for c. 25c in the euro only a few years ago.

At least NAMA may make a “profit” at least. I wonder what history will make of that 2012 to 2016 period?

Link to his article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/when-the-vulture-funds-move-on-our-broken-banks-will-be-right-back-where-they-started/

It's a great little country for the right people, in the right circles

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

I don't know as am not overly familiar with the housing policies of other countries.

But the comparison is only relevant if other countries have had governments who tried solve the affordability problem with measures that they were advised would push up prices.

Are there any other countries who do this or is Ireland an outlier here as in so much else?

All countries has it's own problems, and opposition has their magic medicine to improve quality of life, and affordability. Ireland politics is not unique in this. You may look for the differences, but result will be same. Capitals and other premium locations will have property affordability problem.
SF may come, may look for different solutions, affordability problem will stay.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Back in 2014, David McWilliams asked who will the funds sell the assets they bought (“for 25 cent in the euro.”) to when they decide to exit. His opinion was:

“They will sell to Irish investors. Where will the Irish get the cash? Why they’ll borrow it from Irish banks and we will be back to where we started with Irish banks overleveraged to expensive Irish property.”

He got it wrong. They’re not selling to Irish investors. It appears they’re selling/leasing them back to the Irish state. The very same state they bought them off of for c. 25c in the euro only a few years ago.

At least NAMA may make a “profit” at least. I wonder what history will make of that 2012 to 2016 period?

Link to his article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/when-the-vulture-funds-move-on-our-broken-banks-will-be-right-back-where-they-started/

More simplistic drivel. Banks are barely lending and the number of hoops people are having to jump through to get loans and mortgages are considerable, so your supposition is wrong. There is no reckless and profligate lending going on.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

More simplistic drivel. Banks are barely lending and the number of hoops people are having to jump through to get loans and mortgages are considerable, so your supposition is wrong. There is no reckless and profligate lending going on.

Maybe read my post again

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe read my post again

Fair do's, I mistook McWilliams position for yours.:o

Timing belt

If SF had solutions why are they not making a difference at local authority level. Why are they adding to the problem by objecting to anything that a different political party puts forward...at the end of the day all the political parties are playing games to try and get votes and anyone that thinks that things will change overnight at a GE is deluded. If SF get elected housing will not be their no1 priority...it’s no1 priority will to get rid of special criminal courts followed by a United Ireland and then re-writing the tax laws to make the rich pay. (Just for clarity that is anyone above the average industrial wage)....maybe then they will look at housing which takes time to resolve if it is a sustainable solution.

mcsean2163

combat14 wrote: »

scrap HAP and let people emigrate again if they cant afford the nose bleed rents here

? Scrapping rpz would cause rents to fall as landlords would be happy to rent at a lower rate as they could then higher rents if the economy recovered.

Villa05

thefridge2006 wrote:

It's farcical. I suspect someone or some group are being well looked after and its not the general public. its so bad that it doesn't make sense on any level you look at it from

Marius34 wrote:

All countries has it's own problems, and opposition has their magic medicine to improve quality of life, and affordability. Ireland politics is not unique in this. You may look for the differences, but result will be same. Capitals and other premium locations will have property affordability problem. SF may come, may look for different solutions, affordability problem will stay.

A bit of the Boston or Berlin argument in the noughties.
Which of those countries, those cities represent are run in the best interests of their country, citizens and economy

Even the Berlin problems documented earlier in this thread are from a lapse and move to Boston policies in an issue caused by Boston policies ie the banking crisis

Our problems are a direct result of political actions

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

All countries has it's own problems, and opposition has their magic medicine to improve quality of life, and affordability. Ireland politics is not unique in this. You may look for the differences, but result will be same. Capitals and other premium locations will have property affordability problem.
SF may come, may look for different solutions, affordability problem will stay.

I'm very happy to make the prediction that houses will be cheaper under a SF led government, if they're successful at the next election.

thefridge2006

cnocbui wrote: »

More simplistic drivel. Banks are barely lending and the number of hoops people are having to jump through to get loans and mortgages are considerable, so your supposition is wrong. There is no reckless and profligate lending going on.

This also adds to the whole problem of inflated house prices....I'm hearing of huge amounts of people getting AIP and set on their merry little way to bid bid and bid on their "forever home"......then when it comes to drawdown they run into a road block and are forced to pull out, leaving a house that has been bid up up and up and the second "lucky" party paying through the nose for it. Its a total mess out there at present and nobody seems to want to fix it

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I'm very happy to make the prediction that houses will be cheaper under a SF led government, if they're successful at the next election.

I don't believe we will have to wait for a SF government, unless it happens in the next 12-24 months.

If people take any 5 year period over the past 100 years in Ireland or anywhere, we can see how quickly and without much notice all kinds of markets (incl. property) take a dive or inflate.

The main difference this time is that the central banks have little tools left as interest rates are literally at rock bottom and governments are already borrowed to the hilt.

This upward trajectory over the last 10 years has being due to the central banks and governments fighting the last battle. Markets will revert to fundamentals a lot sooner and without notice than many people believe IMO

I believe it would have happened already except for the cover of covid IMO

MacronvFrugals

Timing belt wrote: »

If SF had solutions why are they not making a difference at local authority level. Why are they adding to the problem by objecting to anything that a different political party puts forward...at the end of the day all the political parties are playing games to try and get votes and anyone that thinks that things will change overnight at a GE is deluded. If SF get elected housing will not be their no1 priority...it’s no1 priority will to get rid of special criminal courts followed by a United Ireland and then re-writing the tax laws to make the rich pay. (Just for clarity that is anyone above the average industrial wage)....maybe then they will look at housing which takes time to resolve if it is a sustainable solution.

In fairness Phil Hogan made local councils into puppy’s back in 2013, any decent power they had was taken away.

PropQueries

The Minister of Housing wrote an article in the Sunday Independent today where he said:

"My housing policy is shaped by the need for practical solutions to those hopes and fears by getting things done, not the silver bullet, overnight fantasies of some opposition TDs."

From my understanding the main housing policy he's intent on implementing is the policy that was, quite literally, handed to him by the property industry lobby groups.

Maybe he should rephrase "My housing policy" to "The property industry lobby groups policy" in the above quote?

Link to Sunday Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/we-cant-let-the-perfect-be-the-enemy-of-the-good-in-solving-our-housing-crisis-40167239.html

awec

thefridge2006 wrote: »

This also adds to the whole problem of inflated house prices....I'm hearing of huge amounts of people getting AIP and set on their merry little way to bid bid and bid on their "forever home"......then when it comes to drawdown they run into a road block and are forced to pull out, leaving a house that has been bid up up and up and the second "lucky" party paying through the nose for it. Its a total mess out there at present and nobody seems to want to fix it

Yea? What's your source for this?

DubCount

schmittel wrote: »

I'm very happy to make the prediction that houses will be cheaper under a SF led government, if they're successful at the next election.

With the unemployment and recession a SF government would bring - you're probably right :rolleyes:

Timing belt

DubCount wrote: »

With the unemployment and recession a SF government would bring - you're probably right :rolleyes:

Don’t forget people emigrating that will free up a lot of property

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

Yea? What's your source for this?

What in earth is a dream house? I have never managed to understand that one.

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Back in 2014, David McWilliams asked who will the funds sell the assets they bought (“for 25 cent in the euro.”) to when they decide to exit. His opinion was:

“They will sell to Irish investors. Where will the Irish get the cash? Why they’ll borrow it from Irish banks and we will be back to where we started with Irish banks overleveraged to expensive Irish property.”

He got it wrong. They’re not selling to Irish investors. It appears they’re selling/leasing them back to the Irish state. The very same state they bought them off of for c. 25c in the euro only a few years ago.

At least NAMA may make a “profit” at least. I wonder what history will make of that 2012 to 2016 period?

Link to his article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/when-the-vulture-funds-move-on-our-broken-banks-will-be-right-back-where-they-started/

You keep saying that but you havent provided any evidence to back taht up.

What evidence do you have about private investors not hoarding residential properties?

Pelezico

Why does anyone quote David McWilliams. He is good for a oneliner but little else.

A sort of pop economist.

awec

Pelezico wrote: »

What in earth is a dream house? I have never managed to understand that one.

It's just a house that ticks all the boxes for a buyer. It's not literally a "dream house".

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Don’t forget people emigrating that will free up a lot of property

Apparently c. 700,000 people have left London since the pandemic started.

Any ideas on how many have left Dublin as the Irish media seem to be very quite on that front here? It's actually a very big question given all the analysis on WFH, future of the city etc. IMO

Link to article in Irish Times on 700,000 leaving London here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Apparently c. 700,000 people have left London since the pandemic started.

Any ideas on how many have left Dublin as the Irish media seem to be very quite on that front here? It's actually a very big question given all the analysis on WFH, future of the city etc. IMO

Link to article in Irish Times on 700,000 leaving London here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

I would say foreigners left London because of Brexit, not because of the pandemic.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Why does anyone quote David McWilliams. He is good for a oneliner but little else.

A sort of pop economist.

Sometimes one-liners are what's needed to explain something that's apparently complex.

For example, his following one-liner (ok, 3 lines ) makes perfect sense in the current climate in relation to resolving the housing "shortage":

"How come there are only 100,000 people living between the canals in Dublin when at the same time in Copenhagen there are close to 600,000 living in more or less the same footprint? Copenhagen a not high-rise city, rather it is an intensively-used six-storey city. The main difference is usage."

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I would say foreigners left London because of Brexit, not because of the pandemic.

Doubtful. Even Johnny Ronan is looking to get back into the property game in London.

"Developer Johnny Ronan has told the Business Post that he is pursuing a return to the London property market. He expects to have his first project in there next year. The paper writes that Ronan’s company has “ambitions on the scale of Battersea” for the city. Treasury Holdings, led by Ronan and Richard Barrett, was the latest developer to be undone by plans for the former power station when the financial crash hit in 2008."

Link to Irish Times article today here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/developer-johnny-ronan-plans-new-assault-on-london-property-market-1.4503562

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

It's just a house that ticks all the boxes for a buyer. It's not literally a "dream house".

It is part of the language used to encourage people to spend more than they can easily afford.

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Doubtful. Even Johnny Ronan is looking to get back into the property game in London.

"Developer Johnny Ronan has told the Business Post that he is pursuing a return to the London property market. He expects to have his first project in there next year. The paper writes that Ronan’s company has “ambitions on the scale of Battersea” for the city. Treasury Holdings, led by Ronan and Richard Barrett, was the latest developer to be undone by plans for the former power station when the financial crash hit in 2008."

Link to Irish Times article today here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/developer-johnny-ronan-plans-new-assault-on-london-property-market-1.4503562

How is this proof that foreigners aren't leaving London because of Brexit exactly?

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How is this proof that foreigners aren't leaving London because of Brexit exactly?

Basically Brexit hasn't collapsed or won't collapse the UK economy like some in the media were and continue to appear to be portraying IMO

HansKroenke

DubCount wrote: »

With the unemployment and recession a SF government would bring - you're probably right :rolleyes:

I think we'll see a lot of panic from home owners who fear their house prices will drop 20/30% and may look to sell up in order to avoid what they think will be chaos with a SF led government. However, this panic-induced supply increase will consequently lead to prices going lower more than SF in power!

PropQueries

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think we'll see a lot of panic from home owners who fear their house prices will drop 20/30% and may look to sell up in order to avoid what they think will be chaos with a SF led government. However, this panic-induced supply increase will consequently lead to prices going lower more than SF in power!

But isn't that the thing. Who's selling unless they have to or are trading up or down. Outside of investors etc.

I think the Government puts too much emphasis on the thinking that high house prices keep existing home owners (voters) happy.

Most are way more interested in local issues e.g. local services etc. And, it's local services that will be most impacted by the current spending on "resolving" the housing issue i.e. more money spent on resolving the housing issue means less money for the services that really keep people (voters) happy.

It's a talking point, but that's about it in the vast majority of cases. If a regular person's house falls by 50%, do they really care if they still have their job?

I think the problem is that the Government is equating house prices to the economy and votes and they're not as linked as they were in the past IMO

Developers would still build if the average house price in Dublin was €250k. They're building for those selling prices outside of Dublin and the only thing that would happen if prices fell by 50%, if there really is demand, is that site costs and the additional profit margins for developers in Dublin would drop IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Basically Brexit hasn't collapsed or won't collapse the UK economy like some in the media were and continue to appear to be portraying IMO

I don't understand the point you're trying to make PQ.

On one hand you're suggesting Dublin is facing an exodus like London that will see Irish property prices/demand severely impacted.

On the other hand you're hinting the prospects are so rosey for London than Johnny Ronan is piling back in but the same can't/won't apply to Dublin.

It's like you only ever consider anything that might impact Irish property negatively and ignore anything else.

hometruths

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think we'll see a lot of panic from home owners who fear their house prices will drop 20/30% and may look to sell up in order to avoid what they think will be chaos with a SF led government. However, this panic-induced supply increase will consequently lead to prices going lower more than SF in power!

Exactly, hence the confidence in my prediction!

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I don't understand the point you're trying to make PQ.

On one hand you're suggesting Dublin is facing an exodus like London that will see Irish property prices/demand severely impacted.

On the other hand you're hinting the prospects are so rosey for London than Johnny Ronan is piling back in but the same can't/won't apply to Dublin.

It's like you only ever consider anything that might impact Irish property negatively and ignore anything else.

Not at all. I was asking one of the few posters who appears to have a grasp of this type of data if he has any similar analysis for Dublin to the London analysis that c. 700,000 have left London since the pandemic started

It's very important data in relation to the whole debate around supply/demand for housing during covid and will be even more important post covid IMO

Have a similar percentage left Dublin?

Just to add. I have a very high opinion of London and that no matter what happens, I believe it will prevail through any crisis. It's not really a back-office location like Ireland. I fully understand most disagree with my back-office reference to Ireland but that's my current understanding. London has c. 8 million people and is fairly self-sustaining, economy-wise IMO. Dublin isn't IMO.

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Basically Brexit hasn't collapsed or won't collapse the UK economy like some in the media were and continue to appear to be portraying IMO

on the other hand the pandemic has collapsed every country the same, so why would anyone leave London to go to another collapsed country?

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

It's a talking point, but that's about it in the vast majority of cases. If a regular person's house falls by 50%, do they really care if they still have their job?

If there is one thing we learnt from the last crash it’s that people really do care if their house drops in value by 50%. No matter how much people might say now it doesn’t matter, it’s my home it’s not an investment, if prices drop by 50% we will hear all about the hell of living with negative equity again.

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

on the other hand the pandemic has collapsed every country the same, so why would anyone leave London to go to another collapsed country?

I think you're overestimating the impact on different countries.

Eastern EU countries are relatively fine compared to the west as they didn't start out with our debt levels or the artificially high cost of living.

Eastern EU countries are actually on the cusp of growing massively due the influx of highly educated and highly trained returning emigrants from the west IMO

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

If there is one thing we learnt from the last crash it’s that people really do care if their house drops in value by 50%. No matter how much people might say now it doesn’t matter, it’s my home it’s not an investment, if prices drop by 50% we will hear all about the hell of living with negative equity again.

Negative equity is a completely different kettle of fish But most who bought up to the year 2001 really didn't care about the property crash last time.

Of course, if they used that equity to invest in other properties or to pay for that holiday home in Bulgaria that's also different.

This time we really don't have that problem, so I think even less people would care if property prices fell by 50%+ IMO

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

If there is one thing we learnt from the last crash it’s that people really do care if their house drops in value by 50%. No matter how much people might say now it doesn’t matter, it’s my home it’s not an investment, if prices drop by 50% we will hear all about the hell of living with negative equity again.

The media promoted that drivel aswell it was such utter nonsense, trapped in a negative equity hell.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Apparently c. 700,000 people have left London since the pandemic started.

Any ideas on how many have left Dublin as the Irish media seem to be very quite on that front here? It's actually a very big question given all the analysis on WFH, future of the city etc. IMO

Link to article in Irish Times on 700,000 leaving London here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

Would it maybe make sense that 100s of thousands of hospitality workers and the like left London given the sector was closed and there wasn’t much point staying there paying London rents.

I’d imagine they will be back as soon as the world opens again.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Would it maybe make sense that 100s of thousands of hospitality workers and the like left London given the sector was closed and there wasn’t much point staying there paying London rents.

I’d imagine they will be back as soon as the world opens again.

I agree. All I'm wondering is if a similar percentage left Dublin.

Timing belt

Cyrus wrote: »

Would it maybe make sense that 100s of thousands of hospitality workers and the like left London given the sector was closed and there wasn’t much point staying there paying London rents.

I’d imagine they will be back as soon as the world opens again.

The big question is have property prices collapsed with the 700k leaving If not then people must be expecting most of them to return once things open up.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

The big question is have property prices collapsed with the 700k leaving If not then people must be expecting most of them to return once things open up.

Back in 2018, The Guardian reported:

"Ghost towers: half of new-build luxury London flats fail to sell. Developers have 420 towers in pipeline despite up to 15,000 high-end flats still on the market"

Very very similar to Dublin pre-covid IMO. What will be different post-covid?

Link to article here: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/26/ghost-towers-half-of-new-build-luxury-london-flats-fail-to-sell

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you're overestimating the impact on different countries.

Eastern EU countries are relatively fine compared to the west as they didn't start out with our debt levels or the artificially high cost of living.

Eastern EU countries are actually on the cusp of growing massively due the influx of highly educated and highly trained returning emigrants from the west IMO

What do yo base that on? Currently they are all basically static in net migration terms. The only outliers with any net immigration are Czechia and Ukraine.


https://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=27&r=eu&l=en

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

What do yo base that on? Currently they are all basically static in net migration terms. The only outliers with any net immigration are Czechia and Ukraine.


https://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=27&r=eu&l=en

I'm basing my opinion on an article in The Economist on the 30th January 2021:

"How the pandemic reversed old migration patterns in Europe"

"In 2020 Europe saw a great reverse migration, as those who had sought work abroad returned home. Exact numbers are hard to come by. An estimated 1.3m Romanians went back to Romania—equivalent to three times the population of its second-biggest city. Perhaps 500,000 Bulgarians returned to Bulgaria—a huge number for a country of 7m. Lithuania has seen more citizens arriving than leaving for the first time in years. Other measures show the same. In Warsaw, dating apps brim with returning Poles looking for socially undistanced fun."

Link to article in The Economist here: https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/01/30/how-the-pandemic-reversed-old-migration-patterns-in-europe

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Back in 2018, The Guardian reported:

"Ghost towers: half of new-build luxury London flats fail to sell. Developers have 420 towers in pipeline despite up to 15,000 high-end flats still on the market"

Very very similar to Dublin pre-covid IMO. What will be different post-covid?

Link to article here: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/26/ghost-towers-half-of-new-build-luxury-london-flats-fail-to-sell

very similar to Dublin as you would expect with similar affordability issues

https://www.mylondon.news/news/property/london-property-19-areas-london-19796990