2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

cruizer101

I'd a quick look at that dataset and it would seem to indicate there is an increase alright, 2019 anyway, 2020 is funny year with covid.
I'm not fully sure of the definitions, but I believe non-occupier to be private landlord and non-household to be state, housing bodies or REIT's.
Chart is volume of sales for all counties.


Source: Goto https://data.cso.ie/ and seach Residential Dwelling Property Transactions, then HMP02, you can chart the data from there

Mad_maxx

RichardAnd wrote: »

From what I understand, New Zealand currently has extremely high house prices, at least in cities. What is driving this, I wonder? Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there, I would wager that the state is buying a lot of property for social-housing, but that is merely a guess.

New Zealands property bubble is probably worse than hours was pre 2008 at this stage ?

cnocbui

RichardAnd wrote: »

From what I understand, New Zealand currently has extremely high house prices, at least in cities. What is driving this, I wonder? Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there, I would wager that the state is buying a lot of property for social-housing, but that is merely a guess.

It's not caused by state purchases in NZ. The three main reasons are very low supply vs high demand, made far, far worse by COVID, as in most countries.

The second reason is historically low interest rates making property investment and speculation attractive and the third is that NZ doesn't have CGT, making property investing even more highly attractive for a lot of people. The second, third property has become almost a national sport for a large number of ordinary people.

The governmant there has very recently changed the law defining the role of the reserve bank, making it now part of their remit to take the housing market into consideration when setting rates. Serves them right for thumbing their noses at the government saying it's their problem and fault for not taking appropriate measures, when politely asked by the government to consider the housing market.

The most recent powerful measure taken in the past couple of weeks was to disallow the claiming of mortgage interest as a cost against rental income interms of tax.

The thing the government haven't done to address the problem I believe they should have, is to reform their planning system, which is a very large cost buden and impediment to developers and individuals wishing to buy land and to build on it.

In contrast to most Irish people, I see the planning system here as a major problem and impediment.

L1011

RichardAnd wrote: »

Given the persuasions of the powers that be over there

The NZ Labour Party are centre-right by European standards. Social democratic and definitively not left wing.

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

In contrast to most Irish people, I see the planning system here as a major problem and impediment.

Have you ever talked to most Irish people? :pac:

I think its universally agreed upon that planning system in Ireland moves at a glacial pace

Mad_maxx

L1011 wrote: »

The NZ Labour Party are centre-right by European standards. Social democratic and definitively not left wing.

not surprising , NZ is a very right wing country , extremely hard headed folk

combat14

house prices up another 3% in feb according to cso..

on another note it looks like the government is turning into santy claus according to this article - massive wage rises on the cards for low earners (if businesses reopen after covid)

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/low-paid-workers-ireland-set-23914954

Villa05

combat14 wrote:

on another note it looks like the government is turning into santy claus according to this article - massive wage rises on the cards for low earners (if businesses reopen after covid)

I'm sure it crossed their minds that a move to the living wage would pore petrol on the flames of rising rent prices therefore the wage rises would be a further boost to the profits of REITs and really do nothing for low paid workers

Further proof that government are a major part of the problem with more welfare for the wealthy programs

If they wanted to help the low paid, (or any worker or employer) sorting the housing shortage would be where you would start

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm sure it crossed their minds that a move to the living wage would pore petrol on the flames of rising rent prices therefore the wage rises would be a further boost to the profits of REITs and really do nothing for low paid workers

Further proof that government are a major part of the problem with more welfare for the wealthy programs

If they wanted to help the low paid, (or any worker or employer) sorting the housing shortage would be where you would start

Yes, pricing people with a living wage is part of the problem. Idiotic. Sad view of the world.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Yes, pricing people with a living wage is part of the problem. Idiotic. Sad view of the world.

Every increase in the minimum wage has been negated multiple times over by rental increases.

If you want to help low paid workers, sort out housing. Pointless giving anyone an increase if housing takes more than the increase in salary

RichardAnd

Hubertj wrote: »

Yes, pricing people with a living wage is part of the problem. Idiotic. Sad view of the world.

The problem is that increasing the minimum wage will increase the supply of money available in the economy. Unless the available supply of goods expands to match, this means that prices will rise as there will be more money available to buy the same amount of things. This may not be too bad when it comes to things like food, but with rent, it almost certainly will be. Simply put, an extra 100 euro a week is of little use if everyone else in your price range receives the same increase at the same time.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Every increase in the minimum wage has been negated multiple times over by rental increases.

If you want to help low paid workers, sort out housing. Pointless giving anyone an increase if housing takes more than the increase in salary

So low paid workers shouldn’t be paid more if they have cheaper housing? I’d suggest you haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about but this isn’t the forum for such a ridiculous assertion.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

So low paid workers shouldn’t be paid more if they have cheaper housing?.

Not what I said

If you want to help low paid workers, you start with housing

timmyntc

Hubertj wrote: »

So low paid workers shouldn’t be paid more if they have cheaper housing? I’d suggest you haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about but this isn’t the forum for such a ridiculous assertion.

If you seriously believe that simply increasing the minimum wage will make everyone richer then you are deluded.

It leads to inflation of most assets & goods and ultimately erodes any extra purchasing power it initially granted - so that people on the new minimum wage are just as worse off as they were pre-increase.

SmokyMo

timmyntc wrote: »

If you seriously believe that simply increasing the minimum wage will make everyone richer then you are deluded.

It leads to inflation of most assets & goods and ultimately erodes any extra purchasing power it initially granted - so that people on the new minimum wage are just as worse off as they were pre-increase.

That is not true and too simple of a view. You can look at US where they increased min wage in 2010. They have been chasing after text book inflation ever since.

Edit: Solving housing crises created by design has nothing to do with rising min wage.

timmyntc

SmokyMo wrote: »

That is not true and too simple of a view. You can look at US where they increased min wage in 2010. They have been chasing after text book inflation ever since.

Edit: Solving housing crises created by design has nothing to do with rising min wage.

Most of workers in the US were actually not affected by the min wage increase since almost nobody earned minimum wage at that time.

Solving housing crisis has nothing to do with minimum wage, I agree. However a rising minimum wage does equal more purchasing power to the people earning minimum wage. The better approach (for general goods & for housing) is to try and reduce the cost of living. Not only can it lead to tangible increases in purchasing power, but it makes our economy more competitive globally.

Hubertj

timmyntc wrote: »

If you seriously believe that simply increasing the minimum wage will make everyone richer then you are deluded.

It leads to inflation of most assets & goods and ultimately erodes any extra purchasing power it initially granted - so that people on the new minimum wage are just as worse off as they were pre-increase.

The point I am making is that a living wage is only 1 part of a solution. Fixing housing doesn’t mean that low paid workers don’t need a pay rise. Building more houses on its own doesn’t fix the issues with housing either..

combat14

Hubertj wrote: »

The point I am making is that a living wage is only 1 part of a solution. Fixing housing doesn’t mean that low paid workers don’t need a pay rise. Building more houses on its own doesn’t fix the issues with housing either..

significantly increasing the minimum wage will drive up wage demands from all other groups too....

it may on a positive note motivate some of the career unemployed to consider gainful employment

however in reality driving up the minimum wage may contribute to making the country generally less competitve on an international basis, rise inflation/ prices making ireland a far more expensive place to do business and more expensive for locals and tourists alike

the government need to focus on driving down the cost of living here - taxes and housing are two of the biggest expenses - now there is not much scope to sustainably reduce taxes at present given massive state borrowing ..

housing is really the elephant in the room ...

and ff/fg have been in power the last 10 years or so .. they need to start to do the job ........ and stop adding fuel to the fire by driving up costs here further ...

MacronvFrugals

combat14 wrote: »

and ff/fg have been in power the last 10 years or so .. they need to start to do the job ........ and stop adding fuel to the fire by driving up costs here further ...

As the Irish Examiner so well put earlier in the week

It will open the door for the kind of change most of those who support Ireland’s conservative parties dread. By tolerating this scandal old, property-first Ireland assures its own destruction.

One quick look at the odds in the bookies shows us the way this is going, both 'Most Seats' and 'Next Taoiseach' markets!

MacronvFrugals

Anyone buying now would be absolutely mad!


Number of second-hand properties listed for sale falls by 70% in 10 years

Sherry FtizGerald said vendors are reluctant to bring properties to the market amid Covid-19 related concerns but also crucially due to the restrictions on viewings.

“This exacerbation in the supply deficit stoked a rise in house price inflation, particularly in comparison to the more subdued levels of price growth observed in the recent past,” it said.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-second-hand-properties-listed-for-sale-falls-by-70-in-10-years-1.4538593

Graham

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Anyone buying now would be absolutely mad!


Number of second-hand properties listed for sale falls by 70% in 10 years

You think it's better to wait until the supply of second-hand homes increases or enough new-builds are completed to satisfy the demand?

MacronvFrugals

Graham wrote: »

You think it's better to wait until the supply of second-hand homes increases or enough new-builds are completed to satisfy the demand?

At least wait until restrictions are lifted and we see what the market looks like..

Why panic and feel like a sucker with how bad supply is, an awful lot is only probate from what i have seen.

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Anyone buying now would be absolutely mad!


Number of second-hand properties listed for sale falls by 70% in 10 years




https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-second-hand-properties-listed-for-sale-falls-by-70-in-10-years-1.4538593

So when this 2nd hand stream comes online can you not equate that every time someone buys one of these 2nd hand houses another will be needed for the seller still no gain in actual housing

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

So when this 2nd hand stream comes online can you not equate that every time someone buys one of these 2nd hand houses another will be needed for the seller still no gain in actual housing

No, not necessarily. Died, emigrated, returned home to different country, moved in with partner, moved into care for older person any amount of reasons someone might sell.
Also, even if they do need a property after selling one, they won't necessarily be in the same area of the country.
So, will make a difference.

enricoh

combat14 wrote: »

house prices up another 3% in feb according to cso..

on another note it looks like the government is turning into santy claus according to this article - massive wage rises on the cards for low earners (if businesses reopen after covid)

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/low-paid-workers-ireland-set-23914954

A lot of people got their first experience of our welfare state in the last year n questioning the point in working imo. No childcare, work travel expenses anymore n the odd nixer or two.

Anyone renting nowadays that's near minimum wage is probably better off on the dole and hap. Rents have shot up in the last year or two in the cheaper counties that'd have a higher percentage of sub e12/hr jobs.

Employers will have to entice staff back with higher wages to pay the higher rents that government policy has increased! A recipe for success!

combat14

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Anyone buying now would be absolutely mad!


Number of second-hand properties listed for sale falls by 70% in 10 years




https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-second-hand-properties-listed-for-sale-falls-by-70-in-10-years-1.4538593

makes sense country is locked down for the guts of 13 months now and counting

hard to buy a house if one cant get outside your 5km till this week - why even bother listing if people cant go view the house - its a vicsous circle ...

artificially driving up asking prices for the few that decide to list their wares right now

while banks are still reticent to even lend to many of the hundreds of thousands on the covid payment all year till they see will all the closed zombie businesses in many cases come back on stream later this year or next year even - who knows ...

combat14

enricoh wrote: »

A lot of people got their first experience of our welfare state in the last year n questioning the point in working imo. No childcare, work travel expenses anymore n the odd nixer or two.

Anyone renting nowadays that's near minimum wage is probably better off on the dole and hap. Rents have shot up in the last year or two in the cheaper counties that'd have a higher percentage of sub e12/hr jobs.

Employers will have to entice staff back with higher wages to pay the higher rents that government policy has increased! A recipe for success!

thats if young people even decide to stay here once international covid restrictions are lifted

HotDudeLife

Having taken a sabbatical from boards after posting my predictions at the start of the year i had planned to not log in until my prediction was realized but given the madness of our times i couldn't resist checking back in.

My prediction at the start of the year was that 2nd hand house prices within the 250-400k (FTB) range would drop 10% on the condition that this drop would occur roughly 3 months after fully reopening of the economy, which i predicted as October 2021.

This my still occur as people seem to forget how quickly things can change, we're noticing quite a few properties hit the market each day in North Dublin and whilst prices are insane due to sheer fear and panic, i predict we will see an avalanche of 2nd hand properties up for sale this summer (if everything is back open by then, of course).

Current prices and historically low supply cannot last forever, we have witnessed the lowest supply in recent history and we're confident the worst of it is over now that restrictions are being lifted. More supply hitting the market plus PUP payments being withdrawn next year and business closures will cause property prices to dip (slightly).

Cyrus

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Having taken a sabbatical from boards after posting my predictions at the start of the year i had planned to not log in until my prediction was realized but given the madness of our times i couldn't resist checking back in.

My prediction at the start of the year was that 2nd hand house prices within the 250-400k (FTB) range would drop 10% on the condition that this drop would occur roughly 3 months after fully reopening of the economy, which i predicted as October 2021.

This my still occur as people seem to forget how quickly things can change, we're noticing quite a few properties hit the market each day in North Dublin and whilst prices are insane due to sheer fear and panic, i predict we will see an avalanche of 2nd hand properties up for sale this summer (if everything is back open by then, of course).

Current prices and historically low supply cannot last forever, we have witnessed the lowest supply in recent history and we're confident the worst of it is over now that restrictions are being lifted. More supply hitting the market plus PUP payments being withdrawn next year and business closures will cause property prices to dip (slightly).

Drop 10 percent from what though ? Current prices or the prices that prevailed at the time of the prediction?

HotDudeLife

Cyrus wrote: »

Drop 10 percent from what though ? Current prices or the prices that prevailed at the time of the prediction?

2020 prices, so it will likely be a larger drop compared against prices at the moment, albeit we don't have all the PPR data, yet.

HotDudeLife

combat14 wrote: »

thats if young people even decide to stay here once international covid restrictions are lifted

This is a very good point, younger siblings social circle appears to be leaning in that direction, sad times.

Graham

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

At least wait until restrictions are lifted and we see what the market looks like..

Why panic and feel like a sucker with how bad supply is, an awful lot is only probate from what i have seen.

Thanks

That makes more sense, I just didn't understand the 'hold off because supply has dropped by 70% in 10 years' angle.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

Thanks

That makes more sense, I just didn't understand the 'hold off because supply has dropped by 70% in 10 years' angle.

I guess whether it is worth holding off because supply has dropped 70% depends on why supply has collapsed.

Certainly it is not totally off the wall to suggest it might be worth waiting even beyond lockdown.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I guess whether it is worth holding off because supply has dropped 70% depends on why supply has collapsed.

Certainly it is not totally off the wall to suggest it might be worth waiting even beyond lockdown.

If I was actively in the market now and I could wait I’d try give it 9-12 months post lifting of all restrictions to see where we are.

Knowing my luck prices would rise but intuitively you’d have to expect a softening.

meangene

Where does everyone go to view rental properties? Is it Daft?? There isn't a lot on it...

A bit off topic, apologies

RichardAnd

My own take is to wait. I plan to start viewing houses as soon as physical viewings are allowed, but this "bid to view" or "sale-agree to view" nonsense is a game I'm not playing. I

I would opine that when it becomes possible to view a house without bidding on it, a lot of the crazy over-shoots of price will roll back a little. Supply will still be a problem, of course, but I want nothing to do with the tulip bulb market that I see at the moment.

K.Hawksworth

Cyrus wrote: »

If I was actively in the market now and I could wait I’d try give it 9-12 months post lifting of all restrictions to see where we are.

Knowing my luck prices would rise but intuitively you’d have to expect a softening.

They most likely will rise in that timeframe and beyond. We have to remember that even before coronavirus, construction was falling short of demand. We were playing catch-up trying to build enough property to meet demand. Then the worst possible scenario happened where construction stopped a year ago and still hasn't fully resumed yet. So not only do we need to build enough to meet demand, we have to build enough to meet year on year demand AND build enough to clear the backlog. That requires 40,000+ completions over the next 12 months. It's simply not going to happen.

liam7831

A property professional said to me he expects prices to rise, simply lack of supply. I just can't see all these properties suddenly appearing on the market when country opens up.
Anyone that has property to sell is selling now as prices are high they are hardly going to wait incase prices fall which I doubt would happen anyway.

Timmyr

cnocbui wrote: »

It's not caused by state purchases in NZ. The three main reasons are very low supply vs high demand, made far, far worse by COVID, as in most countries.

The second reason is historically low interest rates making property investment and speculation attractive and the third is that NZ doesn't have CGT, making property investing even more highly attractive for a lot of people. The second, third property has become almost a national sport for a large number of ordinary people.

The governmant there has very recently changed the law defining the role of the reserve bank, making it now part of their remit to take the housing market into consideration when setting rates. Serves them right for thumbing their noses at the government saying it's their problem and fault for not taking appropriate measures, when politely asked by the government to consider the housing market.

The most recent powerful measure taken in the past couple of weeks was to disallow the claiming of mortgage interest as a cost against rental income interms of tax.

The thing the government haven't done to address the problem I believe they should have, is to reform their planning system, which is a very large cost buden and impediment to developers and individuals wishing to buy land and to build on it.

In contrast to most Irish people, I see the planning system here as a major problem and impediment.

You are mostly correct, except there is enough supply to meet the demand but your other 2 points are spot on.
I am in the process of buying my first home in Auckland at the moment and its soul destroying

PropQueries

According to the Irish Times “Housing Minister wants to double affordable and social homes in new developments”.

How’s this different to what’s happening on the ground at the moment? Yes, officially 10%, but they do buy more on top of that, enter into 25 long-term lease agreements or rent them by the back-door through HAP etc.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/housing-minister-wants-to-double-affordable-and-social-homes-in-new-developments-1.4538751

Timmyr

Mad_maxx wrote: »

not surprising , NZ is a very right wing country , extremely hard headed folk

I dont know where you get your ideas, but NZ is not right wing

yer man!

liam7831 wrote: »

A property professional said to me he expects prices to rise, simply lack of supply. I just can't see all these properties suddenly appearing on the market when country opens up.
Anyone that has property to sell is selling now as prices are high they are hardly going to wait incase prices fall which I doubt would happen anyway.

I don't know about this though. if you're selling a house now and plan to buy a new one, how many people are potentially holding off on the new purchase simply because they don't want to get involved in a bidding war. I think there's far more people just holding off selling now than we think.

combat14

serious talk of kbc leaving irish market this morning .. with bank of ireland taking over its loan book .. hopefully the competition regulator will do its job and block the sale

terrible news for mortgage holders here as bound to drive up interest rates over time due to desperate lack of competition in the mortage market here

avant mortages is the only shining light at the moment but how long will that last if there are no competitiors ..they could even pull from here too based on what they see other foreign banks doing

hometruths

combat14 wrote: »

serious talk of kbc leaving irish market this morning .. with bank of ireland taking over its loan book .. hopefully the competition regulator will do its job and block the sale

terrible news for mortgage holders here as bound to drive up interest rates over time due to desperate lack of competition in the mortage market here

avant mortages is the only shining light at the moment but how long will that last if there are no competitiors ..they could even pull from here too based on what they see other foreign banks doing

Maybe the competition regulator can bellyache that there is not enough competition in the banking sector but they cannot force KBC to operate in Ireland.

If a sale was blocked to BOI and KBC are set on leaving they'll sell to a vulture fund or some other party who is unlikely to be consumer focussed.

The reason we don't have enough competition in the banking sector is because we've decided that mortgage payments are to all intents and purposes optional. It is utter madness.

enricoh

If I was a bank handing out mortgage loans and looking at sinn fein coming over the hill I'd be legging it in good time too!!

engagethecore

schmittel wrote: »

Maybe the competition regulator can bellyache that there is not enough competition in the banking sector but they cannot force KBC to operate in Ireland.

If a sale was blocked to BOI and KBC are set on leaving they'll sell to a vulture fund or some other party who is unlikely to be consumer focussed.

The reason we don't have enough competition in the banking sector is because we've decided that mortgage payments are to all intents and purposes optional. It is utter madness.

Agreed , its not a fluke that two lenders (who do well abroad) want to pull out of the market . Very difficult to get money when you cant get money back when somebody doesn't pay for their Mortgage

engagethecore

combat14 wrote: »

serious talk of kbc leaving irish market this morning .. with bank of ireland taking over its loan book .. hopefully the competition regulator will do its job and block the sale

terrible news for mortgage holders here as bound to drive up interest rates over time due to desperate lack of competition in the mortage market here

avant mortages is the only shining light at the moment but how long will that last if there are no competitiors ..they could even pull from here too based on what they see other foreign banks doing

Interest rates aren't high because of lack of competition they are high because the banks cant get money back and foreclose on non payers which drives up the costs for banks operating here VS other European Countries. Also legacy spread Irish institutions pay to fund cash VS other European banks primarily driven from 2008 crash

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times “Housing Minister wants to double affordable and social homes in new developments”.

How’s this different to what’s happening on the ground at the moment? Yes, officially 10%, but they do buy more on top of that, enter into 25 long-term lease agreements or rent them by the back-door through HAP etc.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/housing-minister-wants-to-double-affordable-and-social-homes-in-new-developments-1.4538751

How much is that going to add on to the price of a house in the rest of the development for ordinary buyers?

ongarite

schmittel wrote: »

Maybe the competition regulator can bellyache that there is not enough competition in the banking sector but they cannot force KBC to operate in Ireland.

If a sale was blocked to BOI and KBC are set on leaving they'll sell to a vulture fund or some other party who is unlikely to be consumer focussed.

The reason we don't have enough competition in the banking sector is because we've decided that mortgage payments are to all intents and purposes optional. It is utter madness.

The level on capital reserves that banks have to hold in Ireland is 3 times that of EU countries.
That’s because of the risk of default/non payment of loans here and the insane difficulty with eviction.
See pause on eviction again until July after press, political uproar on Monday.

The people by voting for TDs & parties who all are fine with this, have to shoulder some of the blame for 2 banks pulling out in the last year.

Wanderer78

enricoh wrote:

If I was a bank handing out mortgage loans and looking at sinn fein coming over the hill I'd be legging it in good time too!!

How come, what have sf got to do with it?

Our dysfunctional housing market is feeding our dysfunctional banking sector, and vice versa