2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

DataDude

awec wrote: »

I'm sorry, but this is a ridiculous leap of logic.

Every single bidder involved increased the end price. DCC was just one. There could have been 5 others.

I'm not sure what you're on about when you say "double the market price". The market price is whatever it sells for on the market, whatever amount someone was willing to pay for it. In this case it was 750. The underbidder could have hit their limit at 740.

You are trying to imply if it weren't for DCC this house would have sold for closer to 450. There is absolutely nothing to suggest this is true. IMHO it is a deliberately disingenuous statement to make.

You also said that Estate Agents were ringing DCC to get them involved in bidding wars. Again, there is nothing to suggest that this is true.

Just wondering here, I have no evidence nor have heard anyone suggest this is possible -

If you knew the Council was interested in your property, and you know they have deep pockets, could you have an obliging friend counterbid against the Council to keep pushing things up? Ideally you'd know the Councils limit, but in the absence of that insider knowledge, I wonder could you just have the "other bidder" pull out at the 11th hour and then accept the slightly lower Council offer. At least that way you'd have extracted the maximum value from them.

I know the above is borderline tinfoil hat stuff but can't help but feel like a scandal along those lines would be peak Ireland.

You could also employ the above tactic in any sale but Council likely to be less price sensitive than most.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes and DCC outbid them all. It was DCC that drove that “market price” from €450k to €750k.

If DCC wasn’t involved the “market price” would have been much lower.

And given that DCC are currently in active negotiations with at least c. 4,000 property owners in the city, that big “demand” you keep telling us is there and driving up prices is actually DCC and not families seeking a home in the city.

Once DCC withdraws from the market, that will be a big problem for anyone selling their property IMO

Once again the price went from 450 to 625 while it was off the market DCC did not have any part of that price increase

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes and DCC outbid them all. It was DCC that drove that “market price” from €450k to €750k.

If DCC wasn’t involved the “market price” would have been much lower.

And given that DCC are currently in active negotiations with at least c. 4,000 property owners in the city, that big “demand” you keep telling us is there and driving up prices is actually DCC and not families seeking a home in the city.

Once DCC withdraws from the market, that will be a big problem for anyone selling their property IMO

Ok, show your proof for this statement.

Yurt2

fliball123 wrote: »

I am sure you can easily write that off with all of the black market profits being made out there so a sparks/plumber any tradesman say on 40k odd would have a few side gigs going on and have a lot more in their pockets with untaxed work.

not to mention teachers/grinds, taxi drivers agreeing a price and not putting the meter on. landlords not declaring rent... ETC

"You know those ratings are flawed Ron Burgundy. They don't take into account houses with more than two television sets...and other things of that nature..."

awec

DataDude wrote: »

Just wondering here, I have no evidence nor have heard anyone suggest this is possible -

If you knew the Council was interested in your property, and you know they have deep pockets, could you have an obliging friend counterbid against the Council to keep pushing things up? Ideally you'd know the Councils limit, but in the absence of that insider knowledge, I wonder could you just have the "other bidder" pull out at the 11th hour and then accept the slightly lower Council offer. At least that way you'd have extracted the maximum value from them.

I know the above is borderline tinfoil hat stuff but can't help but feel like a scandal along those lines would be peak Ireland.

You could also employ the above tactic in any sale but Council likely to be less price sensitive than most.

Sure it's possible, but as you say it's tin foil hat stuff.

donnaille

fliball123 wrote: »

I am sure you can easily write that off with all of the black market profits being made out there so a sparks/plumber any tradesman say on 40k odd would have a few side gigs going on and have a lot more in their pockets with untaxed work.

not to mention teachers/grinds, taxi drivers agreeing a price and not putting the meter on. landlords not declaring rent... ETC

That would potentially only wipe out 'black market profits' for those not seeking to purchase a house. Some (particularly from my own knowledge those in trades) will likely be declaring as much as possible to have any hope of meeting lending criteria.

MacronvFrugals

With the latest opinion poll showing a further drop for FF I imagine they'll be extra desperate to push the shared equity scheme through

The Business Post/Red C poll taken between 18th-25th February

FG- 29
SF- 29
FF- 13

JimmyVik

Economy grew by over 3% last year.
House prices are up.
Who would have thought that last March?

fliball123

Yurt! wrote: »

"You know those ratings are flawed Ron Burgundy. They don't take into account houses with more than two television sets...and other things of that nature..."

I was going on a metric of the median wage of 36k going I not sure where the other poster was getting there info from. This was taken from the CSO and took both full and part time workers into account back in 2018

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-eaads/earningsanalysisusingadministrativedatasources2018/annualearnings/

fliball123

donnaille wrote: »

That would potentially only wipe out 'black market profits' for those not seeking to purchase a house. Some (particularly from my own knowledge those in trades) will likely be declaring as much as possible to have any hope of meeting lending criteria.

why would you be doing that you can be getting more of a deposit up and things like OT and work not considered your full time job as in nixers are considered once off and/or not a steady reoccurring income stream sure banks wont even take bonuses into account when your looking for a mortgage

AlmightyCushion

Yurt! wrote: »

Around the time of the last census I was living in a houseshare with 3 others. For CSO statistical purposes, we comprised a household (and if you look into CSO definitions we would have been reported as such). Our household income would have been reported as (I'd guess) about 200k.

That's not an unusual arrangement in Ireland and in Dublin in particular. We have to be careful when presenting household income and overlaying those stats as something evidential about the housing market and affordability.

This is exactly the point I am making.

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

Economy grew by over 3% last year.
House prices are up.
Who would have thought that last March?

It grew by 3% have you any links to that Jimmy ?

donnaille

fliball123 wrote: »

why would you be doing that you can be getting more of a deposit up and things like OT and work not considered your full time job as in nixers are considered once off and/or not a steady reoccurring income stream sure banks wont even take bonuses into account when your looking for a mortgage

Some banks take 50% of bonus into account. Similar scenario if you can show that OT and nixers are a regular source of income.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

price has been constrained by the lending limits put in by the ECB , if you took them away prices would absolutely rocket up.

which oddly enough is what the government is trying to do.

fliball123

donnaille wrote: »

Some banks take 50% of bonus into account. Similar scenario if you can show that OT and nixers are a regular source of income.

Well it wasnt my experience maybe they are relaxing the rules a bit

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

With the latest opinion poll showing a further drop for FF I imagine they'll be extra desperate to push the shared equity scheme through

The Business Post/Red C poll taken between 18th-25th February

FG- 29
SF- 29
FF- 13

I wonder should they drop the shared equity scheme though. Given budget constraints it could only “help” a few thousand (max) get on the housing ladder by the time of the next election.

In the meantime, if house prices keep rising, the opposition will use it to convince the tens of thousands of others (if there really is that demand) that can’t get on the housing ladder that it is the government’s shared equity scheme that is driving up prices and stopping them achieving the same dream.

I don’t see how FF believe this is a vote winner IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder should they drop the shared equity scheme though. Given budget constraints it could only “help” a few thousand (max) get on the housing ladder by the time of the next election.

In the meantime, if house prices keep rising, the opposition will use it to convince the tens of thousands of others (if there really is that demand) that can’t get on the housing ladder that it is the government’s shared equity scheme that is driving up prices and stopping them achieving the same dream.

I don’t see how FF believe this is a vote winner IMO

I think they would look more ridiculous backing out now. They have come out strong stating its targeted at a certain price point and to a certain cohort on the lower wage .. and even went as far as to say it would help build more houses (almost sure I heard one chap from FF stating this)

Browney7

JimmyVik wrote: »

Economy grew by over 3% last year.
House prices are up.
Who would have thought that last March?

With Irish GDP, miracles can and do happen! Using GDP or even GNI (due to tax inversion deals) as a barometer for the Irish economy is frought with danger. The GNI* is the more appropriate metric.

Having said that, I agree I still wouldn't have thought GDP would have gone up with Covid!

MacronvFrugals

Browney7 wrote: »

With Irish GDP, miracles can and do happen! Using GDP or even GNI (due to tax inversion deals) as a barometer for the Irish economy is frought with danger. The GNI* is the more appropriate metric.

Having said that, I agree I still wouldn't have thought GDP would have gone up with Covid!

Or as Paul Krugman would describe them 'Leprechaun miracles'

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder should they drop the shared equity scheme though. Given budget constraints it could only “help” a few thousand (max) get on the housing ladder by the time of the next election.

In the meantime, if house prices keep rising, the opposition will use it to convince the tens of thousands of others (if there really is that demand) that can’t get on the housing ladder that it is the government’s shared equity scheme that is driving up prices and stopping them achieving the same dream.

I don’t see how FF believe this is a vote winner IMO

Thats a fair point Props, but sitting back will see their support continue to slide all the while FG and SF are rubbing their hands.

PropQueries

Browney7 wrote: »

With Irish GDP, miracles can and do happen! Using GDP or even GNI (due to tax inversion deals) as a barometer for the Irish economy is frought with danger. The GNI* is the more appropriate metric.

Having said that, I agree I still wouldn't have thought GDP would have gone up with Covid!

It also shows how reliant we are on multinationals and why the outcome of the current OECD global tax reforms will be so important to the future of this country.

Outside of a few articles, there’s very little Irish media coverage of the negotiations IMO

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Or as Paul Krugman would describe them 'Leprechaun miracles'

GDP up, property prices up, we are currently rolling out a vaccine, coming out of lockdown (hopefully fingers crossed) in the next month, people on PUP will drop and people back paying tax will be up. For a year that has encompassed a mass lockdown of businesses and all the other difficulties with Covid and Brexit. Things look to be looking a lot better than people were predicting

donnaille

fliball123 wrote: »

GDP up, property prices up, we are currently rolling out a vaccine, coming out of lockdown (hopefully fingers crossed) in the next month, people on PUP will drop and people back paying tax will be up. For a year that has encompassed a mass lockdown of businesses and all the other difficulties with Covid and Brexit. Things look to be looking a lot better than people were predicting

Predictions last year couldn't take into account the government assistance that was rolled out. I struggle to believe that anyone really believes those supports will turn off and we'll return to prosperity? The effect of Covid has merely been pushed down the road. It may not turn out to be as bad as some of the initial predictions, but we're quite far off declaring business as usual.

AlmightyCushion

fliball123 wrote: »

I think they would look more ridiculous backing out now. They have come out strong stating its targeted at a certain price point and to a certain cohort on the lower wage .. and even went as far as to say it would help build more houses (almost sure I heard one chap from FF stating this)

I would actually think better of them if they backed out of it. I'd rather someone put their hands up and admit they got something wrong instead of doubling down and pig-headedly ploughing on with it anyways because they think it looks better than backing down.

MacronvFrugals

Some monumental adapting could be needed in the long term for us

The multinational sector now accounts for 50% of the value of the economy, up from 43.4% in 2019.

Ireland’s days as a low-tax haven are coming to an end, so it must adapt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-04/ireland-sees-2-4-billion-hit-from-a-4-letter-word?sref=ZtdQlmKR
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0305/1201148-cso-economy-figures/

Mic 1972

Browney7 wrote: »

Are you basing the last 2-3 on asking prices or from the PPR or some other data? My own expectation that prices for turnkey houses have been strong with prices for apartments being stagnant and slow to shift

I'm looking at apartments specifically, not houses, as I'm looking for an investment property.
I have been bidding since August and noticed how the same type of apartments in same areas have had a significant price increase, around 30-40K Especially from Oct to now.
The impression i'm getting is that investors are hoarding properties at the moment and will pay any price.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

It also shows how reliant we are on multinationals and why the outcome of the current OECD global tax reforms will be so important to the future of this country.

Outside of a few articles, there’s very little Irish media coverage of the negotiations IMO

It's not just Irish media coverage...Its all media coverage..... It was delayed to mid 2021 but has become a political football because of covid and I don't think they will reach agreement and instead the risk is that we will see the EU implement it's own regime which will heighten Trade tensions.... It's all a white wash anyway and by the time we have any final agreement there will be loopholes big enough to drive a bus through which will result in little change besides a bit more paperwork. There is to much money and power at play to allow any meaningful change and instead all we will get is a headline like the UK did this week with increasing CT to 25% despite the loopholes meaning that 80% of companies will continue to pay 19%.... Saying all this it will have little bearing on house prices in 2021.

Timing belt

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm looking at apartments specifically, not houses, as I'm looking for an investment property.
I have been bidding since August and noticed how the same type of apartments in same areas have had a significant price increase, around 30-40K Especially from Oct to now.
The impression i'm getting is that investors are hoarding properties at the moment and will pay any price.

Can you blame them..... It is giving a better return than any other asset class at the moment.... Come post Covid people/students will be back and will all be looking to rent all at the same time which will drive rents up and if that fails you can rent to the government risk free...

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

It's not just Irish media coverage...Its all media coverage..... It was delayed to mid 2021 but has become a political football because of covid and I don't think they will reach agreement and instead the risk is that we will see the EU implement it's own regime which will heighten Trade tensions.... It's all a white wash anyway and by the time we have any final agreement there will be loopholes big enough to drive a bus through which will result in little change besides a bit more paperwork. There is to much money and power at play to allow any meaningful change and instead all we will get is a headline like the UK did this week with increasing CT to 25% despite the loopholes meaning that 80% of companies will continue to pay 19%.... Saying all this it will have little bearing on house prices in 2021.

My understanding is that the legwork is done and they’re hoping to have it concluded by the middle of this year. The only tweaks now are that the UK, USA etc. will most likely be looking for a bigger share of the pot than previously due to their covid bills.

If you don’t think it will impact the property market this year and the outcome goes against us worse than we think, Paschal will pull in the purse strings and force DCC and other councils to pull back on their property buying.

DCC is now the biggest buyer of property in Dublin (they’re in active negotiations with c. 4,000 property owners in the city) and once they exit, the biggest buyer and “market price” influencer is gone.

Yurt2

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Some monumental adapting could be needed in the long term for us


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-04/ireland-sees-2-4-billion-hit-from-a-4-letter-word?sref=ZtdQlmKR
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0305/1201148-cso-economy-figures/

It was always going to come to an end. An economy that prospers or flounders overwhelmingly on one variable is not a resilient economy. We're not much better than an oil-dependent economy in that regard.

People like to speak of Ireland in the same breath as places like Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, or Singapore. Citizens in these countries have more confidence in the future and can afford to have more confidence in the future than in Ireland. What sets them apart is that they have been governed consistently well over decades, and their economies are diverse and don't operate pro-cyclical boom / bust policies. When our sails catch the wind of a strong global economy, we start losing our heads hawking each other property like mad, convince ourselves we're absolute geniuses and get all confused and despondent when it crashes around our ears.