2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

thefridge2006

fliball123 wrote: »

Some people since my parents bought a house always had problems paying the mortgage or the rent. Back in their day the interest rates were 24% and they were taxed at over 70% on some of their wage. I remember my dad saying that for the first 3 weeks they lived in their new house they lived on beans and toast. Having said that people will always need somewhere to live.

This truth cannot be denied even by the biggest doomsdayers on here.

So say we have the crash that a lot of you all so vividly wanting and expecting. People who currently have houses are protected there is not one government party who will force "family home" repossessions . This has been proven in the aftermath of the 08 crisis. So if someone thinks there will be mass repossessions this time are in for a shock. So people who own their home are safe.

So your left with renters/landlord system. This system has been shifting over the last 5/6 years to REITS and vulture funds and away from the small landlord.
So the vultures/REITS are the predominant force in the market today, so much so they can leave property vacant in order to keep the rents higher. Now if our cohort of renters cant afford them then the lefties who have been shouting loudest with crap like "free homes for everyone" and "housing is a right" will force the current government or the government at the time to pick up the cheque to house these people. This is already currently happening as can be seen by the subsidies which include HAP, Help to buy, FTB grant.

Now I am not happy about this situation. I think people should have to pay their mortgage or sell up and get somewhere cheaper. I think all subsidies to the property market (both rent and buying/selling) should be stopped and rent prices should find its equilibrium price. I also think that the ECB rules are a bit restrictive (when compared to other first world countries) and would like to see the cap here raised to say 5 times your salary but with a 20% deposit to buy for everyone (including FTB) that way prices have to drop 20% before the bank runs into any trouble with a property/mortgage.

The problem as I see it is the lefties are setting the agenda and in the current scenario the amount of housing needed when you move the chess pieces on the board around, are the same. People on here like props will tell you there is over 100k properties vacant (he may be right) but the question has to be asked why are they not in the current rental/buying/selling markets.

Now we have had more births then deaths year on year for the last 100 years and for the 5 years preceding the COVID we were seeing a big spike in people emigrating into the country. Now think, people like props on here saying emigration figures will fall off a cliff once we get back to normal. Even do we had more people coming in to Ireland than leaving it in 2020 when we were supposedly seeing on one coming in. Add in the new regime for refugees coming in and getting a place to live in 4 months as apposed to 7/8 years they currently have to live in places like Mosney holiday park and other designated areas in the country and could not work or do anything until they had been through the system. Do you not think that we will not see a huge increase in refugees coming here with this change alone?

If the crash does happen I think we will need to see an absolute exodus of people leaving the country for property to fall in any meaningful way. The crash would also only have to be in Ireland and in no other country in order for this to happen. I say this as why would you leave one country thats in dire straits for another when you can get a very generous welfare rate (one of the best in the world) and will be afforded some kind of accommodation. If a person living and paying tax in Ireland leaves for say England or America they are on their own.

4 of my friends are moving out of here the minute they can. very anecdotal of course

hometruths

One for PropQueries scrapbook: Aberdeen Standard fund pays €20m for Dublin apartment portfolio

Built by Red Rock Developments, the scheme at 19-20 Blackhall Street in Smithfield promises to deliver a steady and reliable return to ASI’s European Long Income Real Estate Fund, as it is being let in its entirety to Dublin City Council on a 25-year inflation-linked lease.

The price paid for the portfolio equates to an average of €512,820 per apartment.

Nice work if you can get it. I am presuming this inflation linked lease has not allowed for falling market rents.

They must be very nice apartments. One would have thought being bought as a job lot would work out cheaper per apartment, but 500k each seems high for the area.

Interestingly it seems Red Rocks plan at the outset was not long term social housing tenants. Their website describes the development whilst under construction:

Blackhall Plaza will comprise 37 ultra modern and high specification apartments designed for both the owner occupier and private rented market.

If the market is on fire with prices rising why are developers not selling off their top end ultra modern and high spec properties individually to the highest bidders in the open market?

Are they pulling on the green jersey and doing their bit to ease homelessness?! Or is that they know there is more money to be made by fleecing the gullible taxpayer?

Timing belt

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Biden GONNA rise taxes ! And democrats too !

Jeff Bezos would owe $5.7 billion in taxes for 2020 under the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act proposed by a group of Senate and House Democrats and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders on Monday.

The tax would be a 2% annual levy on wealth over $50 million and 3% on wealth over $1 billion.

Elon Musk would owe $4.6 billion in 2020 and would still have a fortune of over $148 billion at the end of the year.

Bill Gates would have to pay $3.6 billion for 2020, and Mark Zuckerberg would have to pay $3 billion.

Hard to believe is not ?

Same will happen in Ireland straight after Covid !

Bernie Sanders lol

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

One for PropQueries scrapbook: Aberdeen Standard fund pays €20m for Dublin apartment portfolio



Nice work if you can get it. I am presuming this inflation linked lease has not allowed for falling market rents.

They must be very nice apartments. One would have thought being bought as a job lot would work out cheaper per apartment, but 500k each seems high for the area.

Interestingly it seems Red Rocks plan at the outset was not long term social housing tenants. Their website describes the development whilst under construction:



If the market is on fire with prices rising why are developers not selling off their top end ultra modern and high spec properties individually to the highest bidders in the open market?

Are they pulling on the green jersey and doing their bit to ease homelessness?! Or is that they know there is more money to be made by fleecing the gullible taxpayer?

Between buying units outright or leasing them over 25 years, is DCC now the only buyer and renter in town?

I don’t think it’s tin foil hat thinking to believe they are.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

One for PropQueries scrapbook: Aberdeen Standard fund pays €20m for Dublin apartment portfolio



Nice work if you can get it. I am presuming this inflation linked lease has not allowed for falling market rents.

They must be very nice apartments. One would have thought being bought as a job lot would work out cheaper per apartment, but 500k each seems high for the area.

Interestingly it seems Red Rocks plan at the outset was not long term social housing tenants. Their website describes the development whilst under construction:



If the market is on fire with prices rising why are developers not selling off their top end ultra modern and high spec properties individually to the highest bidders in the open market?

Are they pulling on the green jersey and doing their bit to ease homelessness?! Or is that they know there is more money to be made by fleecing the gullible taxpayer?

How is the developer fleecing the tax payer ? They sold it to the fund.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

One for PropQueries scrapbook: Aberdeen Standard fund pays €20m for Dublin apartment portfolio



Nice work if you can get it. I am presuming this inflation linked lease has not allowed for falling market rents.

They must be very nice apartments. One would have thought being bought as a job lot would work out cheaper per apartment, but 500k each seems high for the area.

Interestingly it seems Red Rocks plan at the outset was not long term social housing tenants. Their website describes the development whilst under construction:



If the market is on fire with prices rising why are developers not selling off their top end ultra modern and high spec properties individually to the highest bidders in the open market?

Are they pulling on the green jersey and doing their bit to ease homelessness?! Or is that they know there is more money to be made by fleecing the gullible taxpayer?

Is the development actually finished and ready to go or under construction? Pros of selling as a job lot are money up front vs selling individual units over 12-18 months? But you would think you’d get a discount buying the lot as you say.
Perhaps it is also beneficial to developer repaying finance in shorter time frame.
Or they are just taking the money and running a mile....

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

The main fuel for engine of property market are money
Not demand,not suply ! The money !
If no money then no fuel for the engine
People does not printing money because people earning money
We can not talk just about supply and demand !
We have take everything on account what bring money ( fuel ) to the property ( engine )
When I see how people speak only about supply and demand there is nothing to say them because they does not speak about money.
At the moment we have half economy,rising debt and huge unemployment.
What says that supply of the money to property market will be limited.
What will happen then ? Prices will down .

And as I have pointed out the ECB has put a massive spanner in the amount of money people can borrow... At the moment?? We have had a half an economy for the last 15 months and property prices went up, we have been adding debt for the last 15 months and property prices went up, we have had huge amounts of people on pup (so forcing people to stop working not unemployment - YET ) and property prices still went up. So your properties for prices crashing have been in place for 15 months and not wanting to sound like a parrot but property prices have gone up in that time. Now regardless of if money was spun out like wool from the ECB or not the ECB rules have limited what an Irish mortgage holder can borrow. So the fuel you are talking about has been quelled. If the ECB rules where not in place I reckon prices would be up even higher.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

How is the developer fleecing the tax payer ? They sold it to the fund.

They originally planned to sell the units individually to owner occupiers and investors.

But they decided they would be better off entering into a 25 year inflation linked lease for the entire to the taxpayer.

Once this was in place they sold the entire to the fund for over 500k an apartment.

It was the taxpayer who added value here.

fliball123

thefridge2006 wrote: »

4 of my friends are moving out of here the minute they can. very anecdotal of course

To go where? Where in the world will a country not be in some kind of debt for Covid??? Frying pan and fire. See how quickly they go when they realise that covid was not just an Irish phenomenon. If they leave they will not have the pillow of a very generous unemployment benefit and a guarantee the state will house them. Anyway good luck to them. Just on the anecdotal side I have 6 friends in Oz all looking to come back to Ireland and will when things have opened up.. For the life of me I dont know why.

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

And as I have pointed out the ECB has put a massive spanner in the amount of money people can borrow... At the moment?? We have had a half an economy for the last 15 months and property prices went up, we have been adding debt for the last 15 months and property prices went up, we have had huge amounts of people on pup (so forcing people to stop working not unemployment - YET ) and property prices still went up. So your properties for prices crashing have been in place for 15 months and not wanting to sound like a parrot but property prices have gone up in that time. NOw regardless of if money was spun out like wool from the ECB or not the ECB rules have limited what an Irish mortgage holder can borrow. So the fuel you are talking about has been quelled. If the ECB rules where not in place I reckon prices would be up even higher.

Manipulation.
That what is moving property market at the moment.
Not money.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Is the development actually finished and ready to go or under construction? Pros of selling as a job lot are money up front vs selling individual units over 12-18 months? But you would think you’d get a discount buying the lot as you say.
Perhaps it is also beneficial to developer repaying finance in shorter time frame.
Or they are just taking the money and running a mile....

Units finished and all but two occupied. You're currently paying the rent on all of them.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Between buying units outright or leasing them over 25 years, is DCC now the only buyer and renter in town?

I don’t think it’s tin foil hat thinking to believe they are.

Whether or not they're the only buyer in town, it certainly seems like they're the highest bidders!

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

Manipulation.
That what is moving property market at the moment.
Not money.

OK so all I need is to manipulate and I can get a property?? can you quantify what your trying to say? I thought property market was a factor of supply vs demand and access to credit and a whole shed load of other factors that are individual to both a buyer and a seller

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

They originally planned to sell the units individually to owner occupiers and investors.

But they decided they would be better off entering into a 25 year inflation linked lease for the entire to the taxpayer.

Once this was in place they sold the entire to the fund for over 500k an apartment.

It was the taxpayer who added value here.

I’d imagine the chain events was a bit different but I suppose we end up in the same place.

You’d have to wonder how dcc can see this as value for money , it’s incredibly short sighted .

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

One for PropQueries scrapbook: Aberdeen Standard fund pays €20m for Dublin apartment portfolio



Nice work if you can get it. I am presuming this inflation linked lease has not allowed for falling market rents.

They must be very nice apartments. One would have thought being bought as a job lot would work out cheaper per apartment, but 500k each seems high for the area.

Interestingly it seems Red Rocks plan at the outset was not long term social housing tenants. Their website describes the development whilst under construction:



If the market is on fire with prices rising why are developers not selling off their top end ultra modern and high spec properties individually to the highest bidders in the open market?

Are they pulling on the green jersey and doing their bit to ease homelessness?! Or is that they know there is more money to be made by fleecing the gullible taxpayer?

That works out at 512,820/(25*12)= 1,709 a month for rent which would be top end one bed apartments or cheap 2 bed apartments to rent in that area from looking at asking prices on daft.

Do we know what the breakdown of the 39 units is (e.g. 20 2 bed, 10 1 bed, 9 3 bed)

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

If the market is on fire with prices rising why are developers not selling off their top end ultra modern and high spec properties individually to the highest bidders in the open market?

This thread should come with a blood pressure health warning

No wonder SF are polling so high

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Units finished and all but two occupied. You're currently paying the rent on all of them.

.

I’d much prefer my hard earned money to go to a pension fund than provision of public services.

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

OK so all I need is to manipulate and I can get a property?? can you quantify what your trying to say? I thought property market was a factor of supply vs demand and access to credit and a whole shed load of other factors that are individual to both a buyer and a seller

What price will we have if ECB will bring rate up and people which lost job will have to pay higher mortgage at same time when they has no job ?
ECB will have to bring rates up to control inflation.
If people will stop pay mortgages the government will have safe the banks same as in 2008.
And what we will do if builders will supply houses for 300K but demand due with high unemployment and high ECB rates will be only for 150K houses ?
We have to many unknown and none known.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

I’d imagine the chain events was a bit different but I suppose we end up in the same place.

You’d have to wonder how dcc can see this as value for money , it’s incredibly short sighted .

Whatever way the chain of events played out, it's good business by RedRock. You can't blame them for not looking a gift horse in the mouth.

I think the problem is DCC don't care about value for money. Once people cop on about the long term consequences there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but by then the damage will be done.

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

What price will we have if ECB will bring rate up and people which lost job will have to pay higher mortgage at same time when they has no job ?
ECB will have to bring rates up to control inflation.
If people will stop pay mortgages the government will have safe the banks same as in 2008.
And what we will do if builders will supply houses for 300K but demand due with high unemployment and high ECB rates will be only for 150K houses ?
We have to many unknown and none known.

OK so another doomsdayer..Look at what happened in 08 ..Did the family home get taken away..NO so with our country even more left leaning now than it was in 08 this will be the case if what you predict happens. So if people stop paying their mortgage they will be allowed stay in their home this is now a given. Lots of ifs and buts in your scenario but supply will not be added to by people not paying their mortgage on the family home. Now buy to lets will but these are being hoovered up by REITS and Vulture funds and the number of small landlords are being reduced year on year and these entities have the financial clout to currently let properties lie vacant so they do not lose their rental yield. So they have the financial clout to weather a big storm. But your right too much unknown and knowns. I wouldn't advise anyone to buy or sell or not to buy or sell. Everyone will have a unique set of issues and circumstances that will trump anything else anyone says on here.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

That works out at 512,820/(25*12)= 1,709 a month for rent which would be top end one bed apartments or cheap 2 bed apartments to rent in that area from looking at asking prices on daft.

Do we know what the breakdown of the 39 units is (e.g. 20 2 bed, 10 1 bed, 9 3 bed)

The website says it was originally supposed to be "17 no. 1 bed apartments, 18 no. 2-bed apartments and 1 spectacular 3 bed penthouse" but that's three short, so they must have reconfigured somewhat for DCCs benefit.

I suspect they lost the "generous Residents Lounge and a separate stand-alone fully glazed Hot Desk area in the courtyard" to find space for three more units.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Whatever way the chain of events played out, it's good business by RedRock. You can't blame them for not looking a gift horse in the mouth.

I think the problem is DCC don't care about value for money. Once people cop on about the long term consequences there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but by then the damage will be done.

Yep. When you have public servants spending tax payer money with no accountability what do you expect? Instead of accountability you get an automatic pay rise irrespective of how you perform in your job. Infuriating. What I find interesting is housing is a big issue and was in the election. However, with the balls government have made of things over last few months SF support has plateaued. Even if they get into government are they going to take on the task of reforming public services? They can’t get rid of people who aren’t performing (and I mean dismiss them, not disappear them). If you have a policy and people can’t execute it Because they aren’t able to (I mean execute a policy not someone) what can you do?

thefridge2006

fliball123 wrote: »

To go where? Where in the world will a country not be in some kind of debt for Covid??? Frying pan and fire. See how quickly they go when they realise that covid was not just an Irish phenomenon. If they leave they will not have the pillow of a very generous unemployment benefit and a guarantee the state will house them. Anyway good luck to them. Just on the anecdotal side I have 6 friends in Oz all looking to come back to Ireland and will when things have opened up.. For the life of me I dont know why.

One going to Canada, two to New Zealand and one Germany. They're just fed up with how this place is run i think, a lot of broken cogs in the wheel and they're paying heavily for incompetence

fliball123

thefridge2006 wrote: »

One going to Canada, two to New Zealand and one Germany. They're just fed up with how this place is run i think, a lot of broken cogs in the wheel and they're paying heavily for incompetence

Yeah cant argue with them there

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

The website says it was originally supposed to be "17 no. 1 bed apartments, 18 no. 2-bed apartments and 1 spectacular 3 bed penthouse" but that's three short, so they must have reconfigured somewhat for DCCs benefit.

I suspect they lost the "generous Residents Lounge and a separate stand-alone fully glazed Hot Desk area in the courtyard" to find space for three more units.

It is crazy.... Even buying the properties at that price would be better value.

I just had a look to see what parties are controlling DCC and it would appear none so they are all as bad as each other for approving this mess.

FF 11
Green 9
FG 9
SF 8
Labour 8
social democrats 5
solidarity 2
IFC 1
Independent 10
63

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep. When you have public servants spending tax payer money with no accountability what do you expect? Instead of accountability you get an automatic pay rise irrespective of how you perform in your job.

I once had a legal issue with a council, and given the strength of the case, I considered pursuing a judicial review thinking they would back down as soon as they were notified of proceedings. My legal advice was that I was 100% in the right, but not to proceed with the case because the council would defend it to the hilt running up costs left right and centre hoping to bleed me out. This apparently is standard operating procedure because they don't give a damn about the cost!

Infuriating. What I find interesting is housing is a big issue and was in the election. However, with the balls government have made of things over last few months SF support has plateaued. Even if they get into government are they going to take on the task of reforming public services? They can’t get rid of people who aren’t performing (and I mean dismiss them, not disappear them). If you have a policy and people can’t execute it Because they aren’t able to (I mean execute a policy not someone) what can you do?

:D:D

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

OK so another doomsdayer..Look at what happened in 08 ..Did the family home get taken away..NO so with our country even more left leaning now than it was in 08 this will be the case if what you predict happens. So if people stop paying their mortgage they will be allowed stay in their home this is now a given. Lots of ifs and buts in your scenario but supply will not be added to by people not paying their mortgage on the family home. Now buy to lets will but these are being hoovered up by REITS and Vulture funds and the number of small landlords are being reduced year on year and these entities have the financial clout to currently let properties lie vacant so they do not lose their rental yield. So they have the financial clout to weather a big storm. But your right too much unknown and knowns. I wouldn't advise anyone to buy or sell or not to buy or sell. Everyone will have a unique set of issues and circumstances that will trump anything else anyone says on here.

From my side ( as potential buyer trying to buy good house at good price and trying save money for it )
I prefer stay with cash at the moment because houses prices if will not down they will definitely not up.
For those who has no cash and has job the best way apply for mortgage and grab chance before there will be no job and bank will not give mortgage
For guys from foreign countries if no job and no savings but only high rent then better go home staying on Ireland social welfare for 1 year at home.
For those who selling houses better sell them now because no supply and good demand.
For those who found what he was looking for and not gonna sell then buy it now because no matter when you buy the matter is when you sell.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I’d much prefer my hard earned money to go to a pension fund than provision of public services.

Are you referring to your own pension fund or as is happening some one elses

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

So if people stop paying their mortgage they will be allowed stay in their home this is now a given. Lots of ifs and buts in your scenario but supply will not be added to by people not paying their mortgage on the family home.

I agree that very few people will lose their home by repossession if they're not paying their mortgage.

But these properties are likely to hit the market en masse within a relatively short time frame at some stage in the future. Given the sheer volume of them it will be interesting to see how that is handled.

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

From my side ( as potential buyer trying to buy good house at good price and trying save money for it )
I prefer stay with cash at the moment because houses prices if will not down they will definitely not up.
For those who has no cash and has job the best way apply for mortgage and grab chance before there will be no job and bank will not give mortgage
For guys from foreign countries if no job and no savings but only high rent then better go home staying on Ireland social welfare for 1 year at home.
For those who selling houses better sell them now because no supply and good demand.
For those who found what he was looking for and not gonna sell then buy it now because no matter when you buy the matter is when you sell.

Well where have you got your cash I hope its under your mattress as you will be losing a small % every year if you have it in a bank.

Well prices have gone up since October of last year? So can you really say the will definitely not go up?


Are you renting..how much are you paying out in rent have you calculated that cost into what you would pay for a mortgage?