2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Timing belt

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep. When you have public servants spending tax payer money with no accountability what do you expect? Instead of accountability you get an automatic pay rise irrespective of how you perform in your job. Infuriating. What I find interesting is housing is a big issue and was in the election. However, with the balls government have made of things over last few months SF support has plateaued. Even if they get into government are they going to take on the task of reforming public services? They can’t get rid of people who aren’t performing (and I mean dismiss them, not disappear them). If you have a policy and people can’t execute it Because they aren’t able to (I mean execute a policy not someone) what can you do?

I think the Sh1t show that we see with DCC is down to all political parties as they play politics and and try to get one over each other instead of working together to fix the problem... I can't see how SF being elected to Government will change any of it (unless they win all City and county elections as well) as the likes of DCC will continue with their Sh1t show...... Maybe now is the time to buy shares in mobility aids as the only way SF may actually be able to resolve anything is to actively encourage the public servants to pull their socks up over their knees.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Are you referring to your own pension fund or as is happening some one elses

Sarcasm...

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

Well where have you got your cash I hope its under your mattress as you will be losing a small % every year if you have it in a bank.

Well prices have gone up since October of last year? So can you really say the will definitely not go up?


Are you renting..how much are you paying out in rent have you calculated that cost into what you would pay for a mortgage?

I keep money in a bank.Its safe and I prefer lose a little bit than everything investing in cripto or markets.I am not putting money were I cant control them.Because I think there will be banking collapse I keep finger on trigger.
I dont care about property prices.Same as they growing up they will falling down.The most important have money in a pocket when they falling down.
Well,I will never tell anybody about my rent.
And yes.I waiting for good property price and I am not gonna listen anybody who will tell me I will not win.I am too old to believe anybody because I did see plenty things before.

cnocbui

Well some years ago I had a think about my money decaying in a bank account, then took it out and bought bitcoin. Each to their own.

PropQueries

Interesting opinion piece by Pat Leahy in the Irish Times today titled: "Return to austerity would be bonkers, but so is idea deficits do not matter".

He refers to Pachal's recent speech where he said:

"In a speech to the ESRI on Thursday, Paschal Donohoe gave notice enough about what’s coming. “The idea that ‘deficits don’t matter’ – especially for a small economy without the possibility to print its own currency – is so far wide of the mark as to be dangerous,” he said. He cautioned that the deficit would be reduced “at the appropriate pace and time”, but insisted it would have to be done."

While pulling in the purse strings will have a big impact on the local councils ability to keep renting and buying property and therefore property prices (I'm expecting the purse strings to be pulled in before the end of the year), the more interesting comment was:

"That is why the bond markets matter, and why a return to sustainable budgets in the next couple of years is imperative, no matter who is in government."

Are the political opinion writers in Ireland now expecting an election within the next couple of years?

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/return-to-austerity-would-be-bonkers-but-so-is-idea-deficits-do-not-matter-1.4502497

combat14

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep. When you have public servants spending tax payer money with no accountability what do you expect? Instead of accountability you get an automatic pay rise irrespective of how you perform in your job. Infuriating. What I find interesting is housing is a big issue and was in the election. However, with the balls government have made of things over last few months SF support has plateaued. Even if they get into government are they going to take on the task of reforming public services? They can’t get rid of people who aren’t performing (and I mean dismiss them, not disappear them). If you have a policy and people can’t execute it Because they aren’t able to (I mean execute a policy not someone) what can you do?

more concerned by all the PUP and HAP payments at the moment, HAP in particular is only keeping rents extortionately high

423 million spent on HAP alone in 2019

Wanderer78

PropQueries wrote:

Interesting opinion piece by Pat Leahy in the Irish Times today titled: "Return to austerity would be bonkers, but so is idea deficits do not matter".

We have to get away from dangerous ideas such as fiscal conservatism, public debt is just the public entity of the money supply, by not having deficits, we are largely reliant on the private sector entity of the supply, credit, and all the problems that entails

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

We have to get away from dangerous ideas such as fiscal conservatism, public debt is just the public entity of the money supply, by not having deficits, we are largely reliant on the private sector entity of the supply, credit, and all the problems that entails

He actually did allude to your thinking :

"You can argue all you want that the world should be organised in a different way, that financial markets should not wield the power that they do, that government budgets should not be subject to the forces of financial capitalism – but until you get around to changing it (and, sincerely, good luck with that), you will have to deal with the world as it is."

Wanderer78

PropQueries wrote:

"You can argue all you want that the world should be organised in a different way, that financial markets should not wield the power that they do, that government budgets should not be subject to the forces of financial capitalism – but until you get around to changing it (and, sincerely, good luck with that), you will have to deal with the world as it is."

This is well proven now, well written about and well.... but we have a refusal to change, this is having catastrophic effects on our societies, we have to stop this thinking, as it's clearly dramatically failing, for everyone, including property and land owners

Danzy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Banks leaving/closing branches.Third bank anounced changes.
It does not look that economy will recover and there will be bussiness as usual.
The banks representatives could say what they want but things does not look good.
Very bad signs.

That's very dramatic.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

While pulling in the purse strings will have a big impact on the local councils ability to keep renting and buying property and therefore property prices (I'm expecting the purse strings to be pulled in before the end of the year)

The problem the councils have is they are committed to paying open market rent, or a % of market rent. As long as RPZ rules are in place, and landlords are preferring to keep units vacant or come up with three months rent free wheezes, rather than reduce the rent, market rents will remain as they are.

Councils may wish to trim the rental budget but the leases say otherwise!

Villa05

Watched a program on amazon prime last night that claimed
Bush junior borrowed more than all the previous presidents combined
As did Obama I'm sure that trump and now Biden will carry on that trend. The thesis of the program was that this borrowing was blowing asset price bubbles globally

Hard to argue with it

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

The problem the councils have is they are committed to paying open market rent, or a % of market rent. As long as RPZ rules are in place, and landlords are preferring to keep units vacant or come up with three months rent free wheezes, rather than reduce the rent, market rents will remain as they are.

Councils may wish to trim the rental budget but the leases say otherwise!

Throw in councillors politicising everything and your NIMBYs. Superb mix

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

The problem the councils have is they are committed to paying open market rent, or a % of market rent. As long as RPZ rules are in place, and landlords are preferring to keep units vacant or come up with three months rent free wheezes, rather than reduce the rent, market rents will remain as they are.

Councils may wish to trim the rental budget but the leases say otherwise!

Possible. But I've been through enough downturns in this country to see how quickly the state pulls in the purse strings and investors change tack. It nearly always happens in what seems like overnight

Once the landlords believe it's not going back to normal, they will either sell or rent their properties out at any price (RPZ or no RPZ) IMO

Landlords (despite what they say in public) have being noticing less demand over the past 3 years. The only thing that kept it going was HAP and the councils buying/leasing properties. Once the councils are told to pull back, the landlords will act very quickly IMO. And, no, they won't be selling as there will be nobody to sell to IMO

And remember, once this covid thing is paid for, the pension problem, public sector salaries etc. etc. will raise it's ugly head again.

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

Watched a program on amazon prime last night that claimed
Bush junior borrowed more than all the previous presidents combined
As did Obama I'm sure that trump and now Biden will carry on that trend. The thesis of the program was that this borrowing was blowing asset price bubbles globally

Hard to argue with it

the majority of the money supply comes from the private sector in the form of credit, credit bubbles create asset bubbles such as housing bubbles!

Danzy

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the majority of the money supply comes from the private sector in the form of credit, credit bubbles create asset bubbles such as housing bubbles!

Private sector, public spending, Central Banks.

Everyone is gushing money out.

It's more than a concern.

Wanderer78

Danzy wrote: »

Private sector, public spending, Central Banks.

Everyone is gushing money out.

It's more than a concern.

true, we have deregulated critical markets such as the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate) so much, that as soon as money is created, it floods into asset markets, creating asset bubbles, we need to urgently change this, to more democratic and redistribution methods, as its currently having catastrophic effects for all, including the wealthy

Villa05

fliball123 wrote: »

no in my example they have 72k combined salary or just below the median wage in the country. The median salary in Ireland in 2018 was just over 36k. I am not doing the sums again. Look up the median wage if you dont believe me.

There is a severe supply problem there is no doubt about that but what I could show was that currently on myhome even with a severe supply problem there was over half the available properties for sale at under the 275k mark which is a price point that those on and above the median salary could afford.

Im not disputing the median salary, and credit to you for doing the calculations, My issue is the proportion of family household units that actually earn that income and of the data from my home, if you have it, can you share with us the proportion of properties for sale that have 3 bedrooms or higher.

Im going with 3 beds because the avg FTB is now mid 30's


an interesting account from a 2 teacher couple from Dublin who would be well above the median income



We are in trouble if this combination of income earners are finding it very difficult to find a place to live close to their place of work

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

Im not disputing the median salary, and credit to you for doing the calculations, My issue is the proportion of family household units that actually earn that income and of the data from my home, if you have it, can you share with us the proportion of properties for sale that have 3 bedrooms or higher.

Im going with 3 beds because the avg FTB is now mid 30's


an interesting account from a 2 teacher couple from Dublin who would be well above the median income



We are in trouble if this combination of income earners are finding it very difficult to find a place to live close to their place of work

the average family home in the dublin region is now 10 times the average industrial wage, and growing, we re already in serious trouble!

Villa05

intresting to step back and see how things worked out in the past



October 2003



Primetime Housing Debate Part 1


Primetime Housing Debate Part 2




Imagine the pain that could have been spared if appropiate action was taken back then rather than pouring more fuel on the demand side as what happened back then.


Can you spot the similarities of the arguments between late 2003 and now

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Im not disputing the median salary, and credit to you for doing the calculations, My issue is the proportion of family household units that actually earn that income and of the data from my home, if you have it, can you share with us the proportion of properties for sale that have 3 bedrooms or higher.

Im going with 3 beds because the avg FTB is now mid 30's


an interesting account from a 2 teacher couple from Dublin who would be well above the median income



We are in trouble if this combination of income earners are finding it very difficult to find a place to live close to their place of work

This is a lad who is promoting his Instagram page who wants to buy in d6 or d8

He can afford in Dublin alright just not exactly where he wants.

hometruths

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the average family home in the dublin region is now 10 times the average industrial wage, and growing, we re already in serious trouble!

15 years ago we thought 10 times average wage was the sign of a boom, now we seem have normalised it!

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

intresting to step back and see how things worked out in the past



October 2003



Primetime Housing Debate Part 1


Primetime Housing Debate Part 2




Imagine the pain that could have been spared if appropiate action was taken back then rather than pouring more fuel on the demand side as what happened back then.


Can you spot the similarities of the arguments between late 2003 and now

I can’t get over how people wore such badly fitting suits back then.

Villa05

combat14 wrote:

more concerned by all the PUP and HAP payments at the moment, HAP in particular is only keeping rents extortionately high

combat14 wrote:

423 million spent on HAP alone in 2019

271 million on emergency homeless services last year a jump from 131million in 2018.
Direct provision providers now moving into the sector as costs soar
Proving highly profitable for the private sector
220 million budgeted for this year

drogon.

Villa05 wrote: »

Watched a program on amazon prime last night that claimed
Bush junior borrowed more than all the previous presidents combined
As did Obama I'm sure that trump and now Biden will carry on that trend. The thesis of the program was that this borrowing was blowing asset price bubbles globally

Hard to argue with it

Curious what is the program called ? Would be interested to watch it

Wanderer78

drogon. wrote: »

Curious what is the program called ? Would be interested to watch it

it does indeed sound interesting, but i suspect conservatively biased

Villa05

drogon. wrote:

Curious what is the program called ? Would be interested to watch it

Overdose: The next financial crisis
On amazon prime

theballz

Property market is nuts these days. I was bidding on an apartment, that has gone for 50k over asking price.

It’s definitely not worth it. People sitting on cash now and it’s driving prices back up. It’ll end in tears I feel

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

15 years ago we thought 10 times average wage was the sign of a boom, now we seem have normalised it!

Looking at this thread it seems it happened the opposite.

15 years ago, average price were around or over 10 times the wage, nationally, and appears it was normal, people didn't see it as a boom.
Today nationally it's less than 10 times the wage, and so many here see it as a boom.

PropQueries

theballz wrote: »

Property market is nuts these days. I was bidding on an apartment, that has gone for 50k over asking price.

It’s definitely not worth it. People sitting on cash now and it’s driving prices back up. It’ll end in tears I feel

It’s not cash rich investors or other buyers. It’s the state. Back in July 2020, the housing minister said:

“The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly,” said O’Brien.”

Dublin City Council also said recently they’re in negotiations to buy or rent c. 4,000 properties in the city.

Basically, if you’re one of the few people actually bidding for properties these days, your counter bidder is more than likely the state.

Good luck with your bidding, but if you do win, you’re also more than likely paying c. 50% more than you would have paid if the state wasn’t also involved in the bidding process and driving up the price IMO

Link to his interview in TheJournal.ie here: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/