2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

More simplistic drivel. Banks are barely lending and the number of hoops people are having to jump through to get loans and mortgages are considerable, so your supposition is wrong. There is no reckless and profligate lending going on.

Maybe read my post again

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe read my post again

Fair do's, I mistook McWilliams position for yours.:o

Timing belt

If SF had solutions why are they not making a difference at local authority level. Why are they adding to the problem by objecting to anything that a different political party puts forward...at the end of the day all the political parties are playing games to try and get votes and anyone that thinks that things will change overnight at a GE is deluded. If SF get elected housing will not be their no1 priority...it’s no1 priority will to get rid of special criminal courts followed by a United Ireland and then re-writing the tax laws to make the rich pay. (Just for clarity that is anyone above the average industrial wage)....maybe then they will look at housing which takes time to resolve if it is a sustainable solution.

mcsean2163

combat14 wrote: »

scrap HAP and let people emigrate again if they cant afford the nose bleed rents here

? Scrapping rpz would cause rents to fall as landlords would be happy to rent at a lower rate as they could then higher rents if the economy recovered.

Villa05

thefridge2006 wrote:

It's farcical. I suspect someone or some group are being well looked after and its not the general public. its so bad that it doesn't make sense on any level you look at it from

Marius34 wrote:

All countries has it's own problems, and opposition has their magic medicine to improve quality of life, and affordability. Ireland politics is not unique in this. You may look for the differences, but result will be same. Capitals and other premium locations will have property affordability problem. SF may come, may look for different solutions, affordability problem will stay.

A bit of the Boston or Berlin argument in the noughties.
Which of those countries, those cities represent are run in the best interests of their country, citizens and economy

Even the Berlin problems documented earlier in this thread are from a lapse and move to Boston policies in an issue caused by Boston policies ie the banking crisis

Our problems are a direct result of political actions

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

All countries has it's own problems, and opposition has their magic medicine to improve quality of life, and affordability. Ireland politics is not unique in this. You may look for the differences, but result will be same. Capitals and other premium locations will have property affordability problem.
SF may come, may look for different solutions, affordability problem will stay.

I'm very happy to make the prediction that houses will be cheaper under a SF led government, if they're successful at the next election.

thefridge2006

cnocbui wrote: »

More simplistic drivel. Banks are barely lending and the number of hoops people are having to jump through to get loans and mortgages are considerable, so your supposition is wrong. There is no reckless and profligate lending going on.

This also adds to the whole problem of inflated house prices....I'm hearing of huge amounts of people getting AIP and set on their merry little way to bid bid and bid on their "forever home"......then when it comes to drawdown they run into a road block and are forced to pull out, leaving a house that has been bid up up and up and the second "lucky" party paying through the nose for it. Its a total mess out there at present and nobody seems to want to fix it

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I'm very happy to make the prediction that houses will be cheaper under a SF led government, if they're successful at the next election.

I don't believe we will have to wait for a SF government, unless it happens in the next 12-24 months.

If people take any 5 year period over the past 100 years in Ireland or anywhere, we can see how quickly and without much notice all kinds of markets (incl. property) take a dive or inflate.

The main difference this time is that the central banks have little tools left as interest rates are literally at rock bottom and governments are already borrowed to the hilt.

This upward trajectory over the last 10 years has being due to the central banks and governments fighting the last battle. Markets will revert to fundamentals a lot sooner and without notice than many people believe IMO

I believe it would have happened already except for the cover of covid IMO

MacronvFrugals

Timing belt wrote: »

If SF had solutions why are they not making a difference at local authority level. Why are they adding to the problem by objecting to anything that a different political party puts forward...at the end of the day all the political parties are playing games to try and get votes and anyone that thinks that things will change overnight at a GE is deluded. If SF get elected housing will not be their no1 priority...it’s no1 priority will to get rid of special criminal courts followed by a United Ireland and then re-writing the tax laws to make the rich pay. (Just for clarity that is anyone above the average industrial wage)....maybe then they will look at housing which takes time to resolve if it is a sustainable solution.

In fairness Phil Hogan made local councils into puppy’s back in 2013, any decent power they had was taken away.

PropQueries

The Minister of Housing wrote an article in the Sunday Independent today where he said:

"My housing policy is shaped by the need for practical solutions to those hopes and fears by getting things done, not the silver bullet, overnight fantasies of some opposition TDs."

From my understanding the main housing policy he's intent on implementing is the policy that was, quite literally, handed to him by the property industry lobby groups.

Maybe he should rephrase "My housing policy" to "The property industry lobby groups policy" in the above quote?

Link to Sunday Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/we-cant-let-the-perfect-be-the-enemy-of-the-good-in-solving-our-housing-crisis-40167239.html

awec

thefridge2006 wrote: »

This also adds to the whole problem of inflated house prices....I'm hearing of huge amounts of people getting AIP and set on their merry little way to bid bid and bid on their "forever home"......then when it comes to drawdown they run into a road block and are forced to pull out, leaving a house that has been bid up up and up and the second "lucky" party paying through the nose for it. Its a total mess out there at present and nobody seems to want to fix it

Yea? What's your source for this?

DubCount

schmittel wrote: »

I'm very happy to make the prediction that houses will be cheaper under a SF led government, if they're successful at the next election.

With the unemployment and recession a SF government would bring - you're probably right :rolleyes:

Timing belt

DubCount wrote: »

With the unemployment and recession a SF government would bring - you're probably right :rolleyes:

Don’t forget people emigrating that will free up a lot of property

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

Yea? What's your source for this?

What in earth is a dream house? I have never managed to understand that one.

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Back in 2014, David McWilliams asked who will the funds sell the assets they bought (“for 25 cent in the euro.”) to when they decide to exit. His opinion was:

“They will sell to Irish investors. Where will the Irish get the cash? Why they’ll borrow it from Irish banks and we will be back to where we started with Irish banks overleveraged to expensive Irish property.”

He got it wrong. They’re not selling to Irish investors. It appears they’re selling/leasing them back to the Irish state. The very same state they bought them off of for c. 25c in the euro only a few years ago.

At least NAMA may make a “profit” at least. I wonder what history will make of that 2012 to 2016 period?

Link to his article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/when-the-vulture-funds-move-on-our-broken-banks-will-be-right-back-where-they-started/

You keep saying that but you havent provided any evidence to back taht up.

What evidence do you have about private investors not hoarding residential properties?

Pelezico

Why does anyone quote David McWilliams. He is good for a oneliner but little else.

A sort of pop economist.

awec

Pelezico wrote: »

What in earth is a dream house? I have never managed to understand that one.

It's just a house that ticks all the boxes for a buyer. It's not literally a "dream house".

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Don’t forget people emigrating that will free up a lot of property

Apparently c. 700,000 people have left London since the pandemic started.

Any ideas on how many have left Dublin as the Irish media seem to be very quite on that front here? It's actually a very big question given all the analysis on WFH, future of the city etc. IMO

Link to article in Irish Times on 700,000 leaving London here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Apparently c. 700,000 people have left London since the pandemic started.

Any ideas on how many have left Dublin as the Irish media seem to be very quite on that front here? It's actually a very big question given all the analysis on WFH, future of the city etc. IMO

Link to article in Irish Times on 700,000 leaving London here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

I would say foreigners left London because of Brexit, not because of the pandemic.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Why does anyone quote David McWilliams. He is good for a oneliner but little else.

A sort of pop economist.

Sometimes one-liners are what's needed to explain something that's apparently complex.

For example, his following one-liner (ok, 3 lines ) makes perfect sense in the current climate in relation to resolving the housing "shortage":

"How come there are only 100,000 people living between the canals in Dublin when at the same time in Copenhagen there are close to 600,000 living in more or less the same footprint? Copenhagen a not high-rise city, rather it is an intensively-used six-storey city. The main difference is usage."

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I would say foreigners left London because of Brexit, not because of the pandemic.

Doubtful. Even Johnny Ronan is looking to get back into the property game in London.

"Developer Johnny Ronan has told the Business Post that he is pursuing a return to the London property market. He expects to have his first project in there next year. The paper writes that Ronan’s company has “ambitions on the scale of Battersea” for the city. Treasury Holdings, led by Ronan and Richard Barrett, was the latest developer to be undone by plans for the former power station when the financial crash hit in 2008."

Link to Irish Times article today here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/developer-johnny-ronan-plans-new-assault-on-london-property-market-1.4503562

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

It's just a house that ticks all the boxes for a buyer. It's not literally a "dream house".

It is part of the language used to encourage people to spend more than they can easily afford.

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Doubtful. Even Johnny Ronan is looking to get back into the property game in London.

"Developer Johnny Ronan has told the Business Post that he is pursuing a return to the London property market. He expects to have his first project in there next year. The paper writes that Ronan’s company has “ambitions on the scale of Battersea” for the city. Treasury Holdings, led by Ronan and Richard Barrett, was the latest developer to be undone by plans for the former power station when the financial crash hit in 2008."

Link to Irish Times article today here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/developer-johnny-ronan-plans-new-assault-on-london-property-market-1.4503562

How is this proof that foreigners aren't leaving London because of Brexit exactly?

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How is this proof that foreigners aren't leaving London because of Brexit exactly?

Basically Brexit hasn't collapsed or won't collapse the UK economy like some in the media were and continue to appear to be portraying IMO

HansKroenke

DubCount wrote: »

With the unemployment and recession a SF government would bring - you're probably right :rolleyes:

I think we'll see a lot of panic from home owners who fear their house prices will drop 20/30% and may look to sell up in order to avoid what they think will be chaos with a SF led government. However, this panic-induced supply increase will consequently lead to prices going lower more than SF in power!

PropQueries

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think we'll see a lot of panic from home owners who fear their house prices will drop 20/30% and may look to sell up in order to avoid what they think will be chaos with a SF led government. However, this panic-induced supply increase will consequently lead to prices going lower more than SF in power!

But isn't that the thing. Who's selling unless they have to or are trading up or down. Outside of investors etc.

I think the Government puts too much emphasis on the thinking that high house prices keep existing home owners (voters) happy.

Most are way more interested in local issues e.g. local services etc. And, it's local services that will be most impacted by the current spending on "resolving" the housing issue i.e. more money spent on resolving the housing issue means less money for the services that really keep people (voters) happy.

It's a talking point, but that's about it in the vast majority of cases. If a regular person's house falls by 50%, do they really care if they still have their job?

I think the problem is that the Government is equating house prices to the economy and votes and they're not as linked as they were in the past IMO

Developers would still build if the average house price in Dublin was €250k. They're building for those selling prices outside of Dublin and the only thing that would happen if prices fell by 50%, if there really is demand, is that site costs and the additional profit margins for developers in Dublin would drop IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Basically Brexit hasn't collapsed or won't collapse the UK economy like some in the media were and continue to appear to be portraying IMO

I don't understand the point you're trying to make PQ.

On one hand you're suggesting Dublin is facing an exodus like London that will see Irish property prices/demand severely impacted.

On the other hand you're hinting the prospects are so rosey for London than Johnny Ronan is piling back in but the same can't/won't apply to Dublin.

It's like you only ever consider anything that might impact Irish property negatively and ignore anything else.

hometruths

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think we'll see a lot of panic from home owners who fear their house prices will drop 20/30% and may look to sell up in order to avoid what they think will be chaos with a SF led government. However, this panic-induced supply increase will consequently lead to prices going lower more than SF in power!

Exactly, hence the confidence in my prediction!

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I don't understand the point you're trying to make PQ.

On one hand you're suggesting Dublin is facing an exodus like London that will see Irish property prices/demand severely impacted.

On the other hand you're hinting the prospects are so rosey for London than Johnny Ronan is piling back in but the same can't/won't apply to Dublin.

It's like you only ever consider anything that might impact Irish property negatively and ignore anything else.

Not at all. I was asking one of the few posters who appears to have a grasp of this type of data if he has any similar analysis for Dublin to the London analysis that c. 700,000 have left London since the pandemic started

It's very important data in relation to the whole debate around supply/demand for housing during covid and will be even more important post covid IMO

Have a similar percentage left Dublin?

Just to add. I have a very high opinion of London and that no matter what happens, I believe it will prevail through any crisis. It's not really a back-office location like Ireland. I fully understand most disagree with my back-office reference to Ireland but that's my current understanding. London has c. 8 million people and is fairly self-sustaining, economy-wise IMO. Dublin isn't IMO.

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Basically Brexit hasn't collapsed or won't collapse the UK economy like some in the media were and continue to appear to be portraying IMO

on the other hand the pandemic has collapsed every country the same, so why would anyone leave London to go to another collapsed country?