2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Apparently c. 700,000 people have left London since the pandemic started.

Any ideas on how many have left Dublin as the Irish media seem to be very quite on that front here? It's actually a very big question given all the analysis on WFH, future of the city etc. IMO

Link to article in Irish Times on 700,000 leaving London here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

So this had absolutely zero to do with Brexit ??? come on props do better. Ireland had more people coming into the country than leaving

https://emn.ie/returning-irish-drive-net-inward-migration-for-ireland-of-28900-in-year-to-april-2020/

jill_valentine

fliball123 wrote: »

So all property for all people is unavoidable?? can you quantify/prove this ??

This question is in such expressly bad faith I would consider it deliberate aggravation for sport in the realm of "Not touching, can't get mad".

It takes an almighty strain to pretend not to understand a common sense understanding of a word as everyday as "affordable", or that you think the reverse of it is that it's impossible for anyone to get property ever.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Do you know if the figure includes bonus and overtime payments?

Salary is usual stated without bonus in my years of experience working. It doesnt say but bonuses are usually condition and not guaranteed

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

All part of the conspiracy.

https://propertydata.co.uk/construction-costs

According to that (in London), the cost of building a house is £190 per sq.ft. and the cost of building a medium sized apartment block is £249 per sq.ft

So, if they had a site with initial planning permission for 10 houses and then went back and got planning permission for 50 apartments on the same sized site, the cost of constructing each unit has only gone up c. 25%, but they're building 5 times as many units on the same sized site.

So, yes, if land cost wasn't included and they wanted to achieve the same profit, the end selling price of each apartment should be a lot lot less than the selling price of each house on the same site if land costs weren't a factor IMO

So, therefore, it's not lifts or fire or building regulations. It's site costs. And who gives value to the site? The state who is the only power with the ability to grant or change planning permission.

Which brings us right back to the Kenny report that was published c. 50 years ago where they stated that land with planning permission should only cost 25% more than it's alternative use value (i.e. agri) as it's the state (through the planning permission process) and not the site owner that gives the land value.

fliball123

jill_valentine wrote: »

This question is in such expressly bad faith I would consider it deliberate aggravation for sport in the realm of "Not touching, can't get mad".

It takes an almighty strain to pretend not to understand a common sense understanding of a word as everyday as "affordable", or that you think the reverse of it is that it's impossible for anyone to get property ever.

Sorry Jill I took the median wage including part time workers(so half our population are on over this amount and under it 36k) and using the current metrics that we borrow by and looking at the current stock of property available on myhome and over half the current stock is affordable by these metrics. This is not expressing bad faith its expressing the fact that there is property out there available for the average (median) and is affordable. Is all property affordable to all people ?? NO but like everywhere in the world people pay a premium for desirable areas and houses that are built to a higher standard. Now I do realise that asking price does not equal selling price, currently things are selling at a higher price point due to a supply issue. Also those on under the median have mechanism to help them buy.

JimmyVik

Any chance there can be a branch of this thread but without the constant dominance by PropQueries. Its just taking from the whole thread and has been for a long time now.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

So all property for all people is unavoidable?? can you quantify/prove this ??

What do you mean by all property for all people?

Mic 1972

JimmyVik wrote: »

Any chance there can be a branch of this thread but without the constant dominance by PropQueries. Its just taking from the whole thread and has been for a long time now.

I'm following this one https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890&page=362


it's more for people who are actually buying a house and have real examples of what's going on out there

donnaille

JimmyVik wrote: »

Any chance there can be a branch of this thread but without the constant dominance by PropQueries. Its just taking from the whole thread and has been for a long time now.

Yes, is there a way to block posters whose opinion I do not agree with? - I cannot find this option.

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

So all property for all people is unavoidable?? can you quantify/prove this ??

schmittel wrote: »

There are those on here claiming property is currently affordable which is bonkers. That is who I am referring to.

Yes there some 15 years ago saying property at over 10 times the national wage was perfectly normal, and that people should stop cribbing and moaning from the sidelines. Look how well that turned out.

fliball123 wrote: »

average Irish house price
https://www.newstalk.com/news/average-house-price-in-ireland-increased-by-almost-e20000-this-year-1124268#:~:text=Average%20house%20price%20in%20Ireland%20increased%20by%20almost%20%E2%82%AC20%2C000%20this%20year,-Marita%20Moloney&text=The%20average%20listed%20price%20of,price%20nationwide%20was%20%E2%82%AC269%2C522.

average house price = 269,522

Average wage
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/average-full-time-salary-in-republic-nearly-49-000-1.4289348#:~:text=The%20latest%20figures%20show%20average,increase%20of%203.7%20per%20cent).

Average wage full time salary = 49000

Even at the median salary 36k (with part time workers included )


how is this 10 times the average wage??

10 x 36 = 360k ?
10 x 49 = 490k?
Average house price just under 270k?

Can we stop with the hyperbole ?

schmittel wrote: »

What do you mean by all property for all people?

Well you put this post up. I am the one claiming that some property is affordable to some people and I have quantified this with the math using the median wage. Your using hyperbole with regards to your math where you think the average property price is 10 times the national wage which is an outright lie. So prove that your statement that anyone saying property is currently affordable is bonkers???

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm following this one https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890&page=362


it's more for people who are actually buying a house and have real examples of what's going on out there

Well, given that there are only 2,948 properties currently for sale in Co. Dublin on MyHome.ie and DCC have recently stated they're in active negotiations with c. 4,000 property owner in the city, I would hope they all realise who is most likely bidding against them.

And DCC is just one of 4 councils in Co. Dublin.

I would think having an idea of who the probable counter-bidder is would be a very important factor on when deciding on what to bid.

fliball123

donnaille wrote: »

Yes, is there a way to block posters whose opinion I do not agree with? - I cannot find this option.

I wouldnt stop him posting, at this stage if I see the letters IMO in his post I just go to the next post. The odd time he does comes up with some good facts and figures but then uses them to try and prove something else or contradicts a position he held a month back which is always funny

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Well you put this post up. I am the one claiming that some property is affordable to some people and I have quantified this with the math using the median wage. Your using hyperbole with regards to your math where you think the average property price is 10 times the national wage which is an outright lie.

Now I understand all property for all people! Your mansions in Howth again :rolleyes:

fliball123 wrote: »

So prove that your statement that anyone saying property is currently affordable is bonkers???

Your posts speak for themselves.

donnaille

fliball123 wrote: »

I wouldnt stop him posting, at this stage if I see the letters IMO in his post I just go to the next post. The odd time he does comes up with some good facts and figures but then uses them to try and prove something else or contradicts a position he held a month back which is always funny

Great, you've managed to create your own echo chamber - well done.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Now I understand all property for all people! Your mansions in Howth again :rolleyes:



Your posts speak for themselves.

and yet you cant prove me wrong good carry on so..I have put the math up with the relevant data using the median not even the bloody average wage as that would of skewed the affordability up even further. So at least I quantified my position and used fact instead of a blatant lie of " property is 10 times the average wage" I think you need to look in the mirror there

Hubertj

donnaille wrote: »

Yes, is there a way to block posters whose opinion I do not agree with? - I cannot find this option.

I use the ignore function and am a big fan of it. Thoroughly recommend

Graham

Mod Note

if you want to discuss the Irish Property Market, welcome.

If you want to discuss your fellow posters, take it somewhere else. Fair warning, several posters are one snarky post away from an immediate threadban.

Do not reply to this post.

jill_valentine

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry Jill I took the median wage including part time workers(so half our population are on over this amount and under it 36k) and using the current metrics that we borrow by and looking at the current stock of property available on myhome and over half the current stock is affordable by these metrics. This is not expressing bad faith its expressing the fact that there is property out there available for the average (median) and is affordable. Is all property affordable to all people ?? NO but like everywhere in the world people pay a premium for desirable areas and houses that are built to a higher standard. Now I do realise that asking price does not equal selling price, currently things are selling at a higher price point due to a supply issue. Also those on under the median have mechanism to help them buy.

Well, for a start, none of that was what framed in your response to the other poster. You asked them to prove nobody could buy anything anywhere. Don't pretend now you meant that to mean something else.

Regardless...

Help to Buy has by now been fairly well demonstrated not to have had any effect on affordability. It has helped basically no one get on a property ladder, since many - if not most - applicants could already afford to build something. HTB was the difference between one house and another, rather than no house or a house.

You might have meant Rebuilding Ireland, but it's not good news there either, as it's available to very few and even then rejects more than half of the applicants it gets (I've had an application rejected for one page going in on essentially the wrong colour paper). Some councils have a backlog of a year, for an approval that lasts only 6 months, and will not be extended. It is almost impossible to use in its current format - in all of 2020, DCC approved a grand total of 154 of these loans, Fingal something like 20. I can't even find a figure for how many got to drawdown stage, but given how much of an arseache the process is, I wouldn't be shocked if it was less than half. I've an APA in Loans and I find it a nightmare, best of luck to anyone else.

On the subject of sums -

You used MyHome.ie. Your Median figure is a bit beefier than mine IIRC, but we'll run with it. We can't search for 138 odd k, so we'll round all the way up to 150k while we're at it, in effect using a well above average median earner as our benchmark.

Excluding sites leaves us with around 1443 properties available to that above Median earner who would have 150k worth of buying power, in all the Republic of Ireland, excepting all other real world considerations, property conditions, and under the most generous terms. That number also does not account for bidding bumps, assumes the applicant has a flawless mortgage situation (eg no kids and isn't a contractor) and doesn't allow for subtraction of Auctions that mortgage buyers can't access because MyHome doesn't let you exclude them.

That's... I mean that's nothing, especially when half of workers are already shut out from the off and I know from my own experience that on MyHome a lot of them are already sold anyway and not taken off yet.

You're looking at, realistically, a thousand properties anywhere in the country in range of our above average worker, in a state of 5 million people. For perspective, the most recent data I can find lists 4,495 "single adults" alone on the homelessness register.

There is no intellectually honest way of looking at those figures and pretending they represent an affordable - ie realistically achievable through concerted effort - entry level property market. Even less if we're pretending it's as plausible for anyone to live and work in West Cork as it is Dublin City.

awec

jill_valentine wrote: »

Help to Buy has by now been fairly well demonstrated not to have had any effect on affordability. It has helped basically no one get on a property ladder, since many - if not most - applicants could already afford to build something.

It was never supposed to be this.

HTB was really just a politically convenient way to give developers greater incentive to build lots more houses.

Since you could only get out of it what you had put in yourself it was never going to help on the affordability side.

jill_valentine

awec wrote: »

It was never supposed to be this.

HTB was really just a politically convenient way to give developers greater incentive to build lots more houses.

Since you could only get out of it what you had put in yourself it was never going to help on the affordability side.

Fair point.

fliball123

jill_valentine wrote: »

Well, for a start, none of that was what framed in your response to the other poster. You asked them to prove nobody could buy anything anywhere. Don't pretend now you meant that to mean something else.

Regardless...

Help to Buy has by now been fairly well demonstrated not to have had any effect on affordability. It has helped basically no one get on a property ladder, since many - if not most - applicants could already afford to build something. HTB was the difference between one house and another, rather than no house or a house.

You might have meant Rebuilding Ireland, but it's not good news there either, as it's available to very few and even then rejects more than half of the applicants it gets (I've had an application rejected for one page going in on essentially the wrong colour paper). Some councils have a backlog of a year, for an approval that lasts only 6 months, and will not be extended. It is almost impossible to use in its current format - in all of 2020, DCC approved a grand total of 154 of these loans, Fingal something like 20. I can't even find a figure for how many got to drawdown stage, but given how much of an arseache the process is, I wouldn't be shocked if it was less than half. I've an APA in Loans and I find it a nightmare, best of luck to anyone else.

On the subject of sums -

You used MyHome.ie. Your Median figure is a bit beefier than mine IIRC, but we'll run with it. We can't search for 138 odd k, so we'll round all the way up to 150k while we're at it, in effect using a well above average median earner as our benchmark.

Excluding sites leaves us with around 1443 properties available to that above Median earner who would have 150k worth of buying power, in all the Republic of Ireland, excepting all other real world considerations, property conditions, and under the most generous terms. That number also does not account for bidding bumps, assumes the applicant has a flawless mortgage situation (eg no kids and isn't a contractor) and doesn't allow for subtraction of Auctions that mortgage buyers can't access because MyHome doesn't let you exclude them.

That's... I mean that's nothing, especially when half of workers are already shut out from the off and I know from my own experience that on MyHome a lot of them are already sold anyway and not taken off yet.

You're looking at, realistically, a thousand properties anywhere in the country in range of our above average worker, in a state of 5 million people. For perspective, the most recent data I can find lists 4,495 "single adults" alone on the homelessness register.

There is no intellectually honest way of looking at those figures and pretending they represent an affordable - ie realistically achievable through concerted effort - entry level property market. Even less if we're pretending it's as plausible for anyone to live and work in West Cork as it is Dublin City.

The norm is now a couple buying so you need to double your stats. I framed it that way as he was pointing the bonkers jibe at me. We have been tooing and froing on here. I have said and proved that the average house is affordable for someone on the median wage. Now when I did my calcs if you check back on this. I said for a couple. I believe the majority of properties being purchased since the turn of the century has been by couples.

PropQueries

In relation to the price caps under the proposed affordable housing scheme, Highland Radio has provided some preliminary figures:

"Price caps will form part of the Housing Minister's new affordable housing plan.

They'll range from 450,000 euro in parts of Dublin to 225,000 in the likes of Leitrim, Donegal and Mayo, with the aim of minimising price inflation.

The scheme, which would see the State take a 30 percent stake in a property, is expected to go before Cabinet for approval this month."

So, what accounts for the €225k difference in the cost of building each of these "affordable" units" in Dublin compared to Mayo?

Given that construction material costs can't be much different between Co. Mayo and Co. Dublin and I don't believe that construction workers in Dublin are paid 4 to 5 to 10 times what they are in Co. Mayo, it just proves (to me anyway), that this scheme is just more scarce taxpayer money being put into the back pockets of land owners in Dublin, who, at this stage, must be primarily the funds who purchased all that land in Dublin from 2012 onwards IMO

Link to article on Highland Radio here: https://www.highlandradio.com/2021/03/07/price-caps-to-form-part-of-housing-ministers-affordable-housing-plan/

Fuzzy_Dunlop

Have the government ever clarified how it is intended for people to repay the stake the government takes and at what interest rates?

It's such a ridiculous proposal and is so obviously just going to increase prices and put money directly in developers pockets.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

It was never supposed to be this.

HTB was really just a politically convenient way to give developers greater incentive to build lots more houses.

Since you could only get out of it what you had put in yourself it was never going to help on the affordability side.

Should have been called the Help to Sell scheme so!

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

The norm is now a couple buying so you need to double your stats. I framed it that way as he was pointing the bonkers jibe at me. We have been tooing and froing on here. I have said and proved that the average house is affordable for someone on the median wage. Now when I did my calcs if you check back on this. I said for a couple. I believe the majority of properties being purchased since the turn of the century has been by couples.

I wonder why.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Should have been called the Help to Sell scheme so!

It kind of helped people to buy... sooner than they otherwise would have bought anyway.

What happened was you had people who thought they'd be applying for a mortgage in 12-24 months time suddenly finding themselves ready to apply for a mortgage straightaway, and move into the house-hunting part of the process much sooner than they expected.

The issue was this was true for a lot of people, which meant prices went up. By design, it incentivized developers to build more.

This way gave them political cover, while also giving those on the scheme a tangible benefit, especially for the "squeezed middle" who very rarely see much direct benefit for their taxes. People bought a house 1/2/3 years ahead of schedule, at a price likely higher than they would have paid, but offset against 1/2/3 years worth of rent.

DataDude

Does anybody know if the following is possible to do:

Assume mortgage approval for an amount X (deposit and income criteria met for this amount). Family member willing to provide a low interest rate LOAN of Y (crucially not a gift, which I know would be allowed). Proceed to purchase property with loan of Y from family member and (X-Y) from the bank.

I know that inter family loans absolutely cannot be used to cover a shortfall in either LTV or LTI but wondering if this was not an issue, would it be possible? My gut feeling says no, since the bank probably don't want to get involved in a multi-creditor loan transaction but would be interested to hear if anyone has any experience on this.

Browney7

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

Have the government ever clarified how it is intended for people to repay the stake the government takes and at what interest rates?

It's such a ridiculous proposal and is so obviously just going to increase prices and put money directly in developers pockets.

Why would an Irish government ever consider what will happen down the line? That's for the next schmuck to worry about.

jill_valentine

fliball123 wrote: »

The norm is now a couple buying so you need to double your stats. I framed it that way as he was pointing the bonkers jibe at me. We have been tooing and froing on here. I have said and proved that the average house is affordable for someone on the median wage. Now when I did my calcs if you check back on this. I said for a couple. I believe the majority of properties being purchased since the turn of the century has been by couples.

If the majority of properties being bought are bought by couples, but the biggest cohort of homeless people are single adults, what does that tell you?

This is a distortion of stats through a lens of survivor bias. I'm sure most properties will continue to be bought by couples when the entire single working population of the country have only a thousand affordable properties between them, and that figure includes stuff like this bright and airy 125k "detached house" in Oranmore:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dublin-road-oranmore-co-galway/4487638

Nobody but couples can buy. You would also easily find statistics about how surprisingly well deposit-equipped homebuyers are if you wanted, for the same reasons.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Does anybody know if the following is possible to do:

Assume mortgage approval for an amount X (deposit and income criteria met for this amount). Family member willing to provide a low interest rate LOAN of Y (crucially not a gift, which I know would be allowed). Proceed to purchase property with loan of Y from family member and (X-Y) from the bank.

I know that inter family loans absolutely cannot be used to cover a shortfall in either LTV or LTI but wondering if this was not an issue, would it be possible? My gut feeling says no, since the bank probably don't want to get involved in a multi-creditor loan transaction but would be interested to hear if anyone has any experience on this.

If I’m reading that correctly the idea is to have smaller mortgage rather than more expensive house?

If that’s the case I’d Do it thus:, drawdown a mortgage for x, (contract without early repayment penalties etc) buy house, borrow y from family, repay y off mortgage or switch to new mortgage for x - y.

If think if you start introducing low interest family loans pre drawdown, somebody somewhere might raise an eyebrow, even for no good reason.