2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Interested Observer

PropQueries wrote: »

Some more news on the WFH and it's potential impact on the demand for housing in our urban centres in Ireland, even if the covid thing passes in the next couple of months. According to the Irish Times today:

"Liberty Insurance has told its more than 400 Irish employees that they can work remotely even after the Covid-19 crisis is over. The insurer said all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed, with the option of spending up to two days per week in the office to carry out specific activities or hold face-to-face meetings."

They're definitely not considering the "hybrid" model.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/liberty-insurance-in-for-the-long-term-on-remote-working-1.4507820

A friend works for a pensions company, they have disposed of their office and told everyone there will be no office in future. Was done fairly unilaterally, no asking the employees, office just gone.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

as a cost cutting exercise yes maybe, people should be careful what they wish for in that regard.

Also compare the response to libertys announcement here versus the David Solomon from Goldman sachs. Turkeys and christmas springs to mind.

This is particularly interesting for Liberty as they have some mixing of teams across Ireland and lower paid employees in Portugal/Spain.

I've put the idea to friends that it's only a matter of time before they're on the chopping block, and did so again (a little in jest) after this latest announcement.

They have always said that it's been tried before, but in the end the extra cost is worth it for the "generally more highly qualified/highly paid Irish equivalents"...but then again these are highly qualified/highly paid Irish people so there will be some bias of course.

Certainly, if I had a very basic operational role in Liberty, that I enjoyed, I wouldn't be cheering this announcement.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

renovations are cheap and quick? i must tell that to the people spending 100s of thousands to renovate their houses at the moment :pac:

That's what I don't get about Dublin "renovations". I think it's more that they're willing to spend extra as they believe it will result in their home having a significantly increased market value.

However, take any standard house in Dublin City and then take any similar standard house in e.g. Limerick City.

Do you really believe that the owner of the property in Limerick is spending hundreds of thousands on renovations for the same works? No, they're not.

It's just that the people living in Dublin appear to believe the narrative that their home will be worth hundreds of thousands more after the "renovation" works and this is factored into the quotes they receive and the people in Limerick know it won't so spend considerably less and are quoted much less for the same works.

The cost of "renovation" works in Dublin will fall very significantly once the owners begin to realise there's going to be really no significant uplift in value after the renovation works are completed. At the very best it may retain it's pre-renovation value going forward IMO

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

This is particularly interesting for Liberty as they have some mixing of teams across Ireland and lower paid employees in Portugal/Spain.

I've put the idea to friends that it's only a matter of time before they're on the chopping block, and did so again (a little in jest) after this latest announcement.

They have always said that it's been tried before, but in the end the extra cost is worth it for the "generally more highly qualified/highly paid Irish equivalents"...but then again these are highly qualified/highly paid Irish people so there will be some bias of course.

Certainly, if I had a very basic operational role in Liberty, that I enjoyed, I wouldn't be cheering this announcement.

i do maintain that the same breadth of experience especially at the higher levels doesnt tend to be available in lower cost jurisdictions (at the moment at least) thats why despite props assertions you wont see wholesale moves of irish jobs to other locations as it just isnt possible yet.

Thats not to say it wont happen in 10-20 years.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this prediction based on the inflation theory. How do you see the state using the long term leasing model over building working out in that scenario.
If inflation really takes off, how will the rise in interest rates to cool inflation affect the market




Given Gov's demand side policies making the housing issue worse, would you be concerned that WFH could potentially spread the affordability problem rather than resolving it.


Kerry group have announced 150 administrative job losses which will be going to Mexico and Malaysia from Charleville and Naas. Many of the workers in Charleville affected have been with the company for decades

If people working in semi/rural indegenious industry have to compete with high paid workers in multinationals, this could inflict serious damage on those sectors

Thats a good point. I heard someone blaming "the dubs coming into town to buying up the houses" for rising property prices in rural Ireland, on the radio a few weeks ago.
Dont buy it myself, because its too soon, but it definitely seems like it could happen in the remote event that WFH is massive.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

This is particularly interesting for Liberty as they have some mixing of teams across Ireland and lower paid employees in Portugal/Spain.

I've put the idea to friends that it's only a matter of time before they're on the chopping block, and did so again (a little in jest) after this latest announcement.

They have always said that it's been tried before, but in the end the extra cost is worth it for the "generally more highly qualified/highly paid Irish equivalents"...but then again these are highly qualified/highly paid Irish people so there will be some bias of course.

Certainly, if I had a very basic operational role in Liberty, that I enjoyed, I wouldn't be cheering this announcement.

They love their siestas in Iberia. Of course they work later into the evening. What a load of.... worked for Telefonica for 10 years and spent a lot of time in Madrid. Very little work gets done after about 3pm. Sweeping generalisation i know but just my experience

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

That's what I don't get about Dublin "renovations". I think it's more that they're willing to spend extra as they believe it will result in their home having a significantly increased market value.

However, take any standard house in Dublin City and then take any similar standard house in e.g. Limerick City.

Do you really believe that the owner of the property in Limerick is spending hundreds of thousands on renovations for the same works? No, they're not.

It's just that the people living in Dublin appear to believe the narrative that their home will be worth hundreds of thousands more after the "renovation" works and this is factored into the quotes they receive and the people in Limerick know it won't so spend considerably less and are quoted much less for the same works.

The cost of "renovation" works in Dublin will fall very significantly once the owners begin to realise there's going to be really no significant uplift in value after the renovation works are completed. At the very best it may retain it's pre-renovation value going forward IMO

go watch room to improve, plenty of the houses are renovated outside dublin, the prices arent any less.

If you take two identical houses, one in limerick and one in dublin and they want to do the exact same renovation i doubt it would be that much cheaper, maybe 5% or so but not more.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this prediction based on the inflation theory. How do you see the state using the long term leasing model over building working out in that scenario.
If inflation really takes off, how will the rise in interest rates to cool inflation affect the market




Given Gov's demand side policies making the housing issue worse, would you be concerned that WFH could potentially spread the affordability problem rather than resolving it.


Kerry group have announced 150 administrative job losses which will be going to Mexico and Malaysia from Charleville and Naas. Many of the workers in Charleville affected have been with the company for decades

If people working in semi/rural indegenious industry have to compete with high paid workers in multinationals, this could inflict serious damage on those sectors

Apparently there are hundreds of thousands of vacant properties around the country which can be very cheaply brought back into use. That should help

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

That's what I don't get about Dublin "renovations". I think it's more that they're willing to spend extra as they believe it will result in their home having a significantly increased market value.

However, take any standard house in Dublin City and then take any similar standard house in e.g. Limerick City.

Do you really believe that the owner of the property in Limerick is spending hundreds of thousands on renovations for the same works? No, they're not.

It's just that the people living in Dublin appear to believe the narrative that their home will be worth hundreds of thousands more after the "renovation" works and this is factored into the quotes they receive and the people in Limerick know it won't so spend considerably less and are quoted much less for the same works.

The cost of "renovation" works in Dublin will fall very significantly once the owners begin to realise there's going to be really no significant uplift in value after the renovation works are completed. At the very best it may retain it's pre-renovation value going forward IMO

Its the demand for the renovators that is causing the price of it to rise.
I personally thing anyone getting renovations nowadays is an idiot. The prices charged are just out of this world.
There was someone in another thread telling people it would cost €10k to €20k to knock down a stud wall dividing kitchen and dining room.
I can do that for €500 to €1000, depending on whats on the floor.
No way could I justify asking some idiot for 5 - 10k to do that job, even if i did work in the trade.

JimmyVik

Hubertj wrote: »

Apparently there are hundreds of thousands of vacant properties around the country which can be very cheaply brought back into use. That should help

I saw a row of 5 of them in Leitrim for sale for €60k each and stopped in for a nosey. Empty, but quite well on and weatherproof.

If you chipped in with a few friends they could all be brought up to scratch for id guess €40k each.


Problem is if you only bought one of them and did it up you would be living in a tip of a development for many years to come.

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its the demand for the renovators that is causing the price of it to rise.
I personally thing anyone getting renovations nowadays is an idiot. The prices charged are just out of this world.
There was someone in another thread telling people it would cost €10k to €20k to knock down a stud wall dividing kitchen and dining room.
I can do that for €500 to €1000, depending on whats on the floor.
No way could I justify asking some idiot for 5 - 10k to do that job, even if i did work in the trade.

That's the issue. People see their neighbour getting "renovations" and the neighbour tells them it cost e.g. €50k, but will "increase" the value of their house by e.g. €100k.

Then, when they decide to get the same renovations and are quoted a similar figure, they just go with it as they have nothing to compare it to and believe the renovations will pay for themselves due to the potential increase in market value post renovation works.

As market values start falling, that mindset will change very quickly in the not too distant future IMO

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

This is particularly interesting for Liberty as they have some mixing of teams across Ireland and lower paid employees in Portugal/Spain.

I've put the idea to friends that it's only a matter of time before they're on the chopping block, and did so again (a little in jest) after this latest announcement.

They have always said that it's been tried before, but in the end the extra cost is worth it for the "generally more highly qualified/highly paid Irish equivalents"...but then again these are highly qualified/highly paid Irish people so there will be some bias of course.

Certainly, if I had a very basic operational role in Liberty, that I enjoyed, I wouldn't be cheering this announcement.

Indeed. Not dissimiliar to the chat re nothing to worry about MNCs downsizing their workforce due to global tax changes, they're based in Ireland for the highly qualified Irish workforce etc.

It seems like the most vocal proponents of this argument are fully paid up members of the highly qualified Irish workforce working for MNCs based in Ireland.

Mic 1972

fago wrote: »

Per fig 1.3 from the CSO https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/

I've picked Oct 2018 as it looks like the Dublin peak based on eyeballing that chart.

Dublin:
- Oct 2018: 127.7
- Dec 2018: 125.1
Change -2.03% (125.1/127.7-1)*100

Rest of IE:
- Oct 2018: 142.1
- Dec 2020: 150.4
Change +5.8%

- Dublin prices peaked in Oct 2018, but assuming all the anecdotal stories here play out, that -2% should become flat or positive in the next 2-3 months

Overall picture is a 1.7% increase for whole of Ireland between Oct 2018 and Dec 2020. I'm not sure how that reflects wage inflation or other drivers, but sure feels like we're bouncing off some limiting factors for the last 2 years.

(Some better stats head can correct my maths but think it holds up)

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


The link above are property register prices, 2020 has the highest prices so far.
From personal experience I can see houses going sales agree for much higher than 2 years ago

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. Not dissimiliar to the chat re nothing to worry about MNCs downsizing their workforce due to global tax changes, they're based in Ireland for the highly qualified Irish workforce etc.

It seems like the most vocal proponents of this argument are fully paid up members of the highly qualified Irish workforce working for MNCs based in Ireland.

if you or props have any experience in trying to outsource lower level finance or legal admin tasks to other lower cost jurisdictions please share, if you don't then you don't know what you are talking about. It is at least 10 if not 20 years away where places like poland are a real threat to our status as a hub for MNCs, so the impact on the 2021 irish property market is nil.

As for the tax changes, the level of discourse about that on here is foundation level at best and is basically ooooh they are discussing tax reform thats ireland finished. How about we wait and see what the result is and then let the experts actually get into the detail of it before we proclaim the death of our economy?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

if you or props have any experience in trying to outsource lower level finance or legal admin tasks to other lower cost jurisdictions please share, if you don't then you don't know what you are talking about. It is at least 10 if not 20 years away where places like poland are a real threat to our status as a hub for MNCs, so the impact on the 2021 irish property market is nil.

As for the tax changes, the level of discourse about that on here is foundation level at best and is basically ooooh they are discussing tax reform thats ireland finished. How about we wait and see what the result is and then let the experts actually get into the detail of it before we proclaim the death of our economy?

How many of the team leaders in many of the multinationals are from eastern europe? Would they not jump at the chance of returning home? How many are currently WFH in eastern europe? It's a 2 - 3 hour flight away.

And the WFH decisions, like Liberty Insurance, are currently taking place and I assume their input, in many cases, is being taken.

And, Ireland isn't the multinational "hub" some make us out to be. Just this week on CNBC:

"Apple picks German city of Munich for major chip lab. Apple has 4,000 staff across Germany and it already employs 1,500 engineers across seven offices in Munich. It’s possible that some of them will be consolidated under one roof when the new building is ready. Munich is one of Europe’s leading tech hubs and other tech giants use it for R&D — Google employs around 1,000 people in the city."

And. that's just one city. I read before that Google employs c. 4,000 in Switzerland etc. etc. We're not really the multinational "hub" many make us out to be IMO

Link to CNBC article here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/apple-picks-german-city-of-munich-for-major-chip-lab.html

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

go watch room to improve, plenty of the houses are renovated outside dublin, the prices arent any less.

If you take two identical houses, one in limerick and one in dublin and they want to do the exact same renovation i doubt it would be that much cheaper, maybe 5% or so but not more.

No, dont watch room to improve.

Well do, but only if you want to see people spending absolute fortunes in an effort to get on TV. That show is not real prices at all.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

if you or props have any experience in trying to outsource lower level finance or legal admin tasks to other lower cost jurisdictions please share, if you don't then you don't know what you are talking about. It is at least 10 if not 20 years away where places like poland are a real threat to our status as a hub for MNCs, so the impact on the 2021 irish property market is nil.

As for the tax changes, the level of discourse about that on here is foundation level at best and is basically ooooh they are discussing tax reform thats ireland finished. How about we wait and see what the result is and then let the experts actually get into the detail of it before we proclaim the death of our economy?

I dont remember a time in the last 20 years that they werent discussing tax reforms.

fago

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


The link above are property register prices, 2020 has the highest prices so far.
From personal experience I can see houses going sales agree for much higher than 2 years ago

By implication the CSO, Central Statistics Office, cannot be relied upon as a source for statistics for residential price trends, and the link you present is better and more reliable source?

I suspect CSO do all the things a good statistician would do like controlling for various outliers, multi property units etc.
What I don't suspect is they have a vested interest either way in presenting statistics one way or another.

From personal experience I have bid on houses that have gone 120k under asking, and gone 100k over asking. We all have our experiences....

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

Thats a good point. I heard someone blaming "the dubs coming into town to buying up the houses" for rising property prices in rural Ireland, on the radio a few weeks ago. Dont buy it myself, because its too soon, but it definitely seems like it could happen in the remote event that WFH is massive.

Has it not being happening since 2018 with Dublin prices realitively flat and "commuter" counties increasing, surely WFH would accelerate and extend that process. I remember strong proposals for a new commuter Town at limerick junction railway station at the top of the last bubble.

What led to the ghost estates of the last crash only policies that drove people further and further away from their place of work

I'm not sure how many but Nama knocked down some of these estates. We had farmers who became minted selling land to developers only for nama to sell it back to the farmer at agricultural price

Your hearing alot of "this time its different" on this thread lately. Funny yet concerning how all the trends of the last bubble are repeating themselves

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

How many of the team leaders in many of the multinationals are from eastern europe? Would they not jump at the chance of returning home? How many are currently WFH in eastern europe? It's a 2 - 3 hour flight away.

And the WFH decisions, like Liberty Insurance, are currently taking place and I assume their input, in many cases, is being taken.

And, Ireland isn't the multinational "hub" some make us out to be. Just this week on CNBC:

"Apple picks German city of Munich for major chip lab. Apple has 4,000 staff across Germany and it already employs 1,500 engineers across seven offices in Munich. It’s possible that some of them will be consolidated under one roof when the new building is ready. Munich is one of Europe’s leading tech hubs and other tech giants use it for R&D — Google employs around 1,000 people in the city."

And. that's just one city. I read before that Google employs c. 4,000 in Switzerland etc. etc. We're not really the multinational "hub" many make us out to be IMO

Link to CNBC article here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/apple-picks-german-city-of-munich-for-major-chip-lab.html

i presume you read the article you linked from the irish times? Liberty have said they have to remain in the country they are employed in.

yagan

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


The link above are property register prices, 2020 has the highest prices so far.
From personal experience I can see houses going sales agree for much higher than 2 years ago

According to the PPR that's on a reduced volume from previous years.

If I remember rightly prices continued to climb for two years after sales volumes started to decline from late 06.

However I wouldn't draw any conclusions going on comparisons between 12 months of on/off Covid travel/construction/viewings restrictions and the previous years.

Cyrus

In need of some upgrading is some understatement

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/brandon-31-trees-road-mount-merrion-co-dublin-a94-x6y7/4488621

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

That's what I don't get about Dublin "renovations". I think it's more that they're willing to spend extra as they believe it will result in their home having a significantly increased market value.

However, take any standard house in Dublin City and then take any similar standard house in e.g. Limerick City.

Do you really believe that the owner of the property in Limerick is spending hundreds of thousands on renovations for the same works? No, they're not.

It's just that the people living in Dublin appear to believe the narrative that their home will be worth hundreds of thousands more after the "renovation" works and this is factored into the quotes they receive and the people in Limerick know it won't so spend considerably less and are quoted much less for the same works.

The cost of "renovation" works in Dublin will fall very significantly once the owners begin to realise there's going to be really no significant uplift in value after the renovation works are completed. At the very best it may retain it's pre-renovation value going forward IMO

Do you own any property and have you ever renovated one?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

i presume you read the article you linked from the irish times? Liberty have said they have to remain in the country they are employed in.

Well, they're not going to throw too many big changes at them in one go

johnnyskeleton

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


The link above are property register prices, 2020 has the highest prices so far.
From personal experience I can see houses going sales agree for much higher than 2 years ago

Are you talking about national or dublin prices? Your link also shows that prices for Dublin in 2019 and 2020 are lower than 2018

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

In need of some upgrading is some understatement

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/brandon-31-trees-road-mount-merrion-co-dublin-a94-x6y7/4488621

That's pure luxuy compared to my house when I bought it and 50X or more better than my first house. Insulation looks like the big issue.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. Not dissimiliar to the chat re nothing to worry about MNCs downsizing their workforce due to global tax changes, they're based in Ireland for the highly qualified Irish workforce etc.

It seems like the most vocal proponents of this argument are fully paid up members of the highly qualified Irish workforce working for MNCs based in Ireland.

With WFH they could leave Dublin and buy 1 of the mystical vacant properties you keep banging on about. Hundreds of thousands of them out there.

It’s also good for city folk to move to more rural locations, brings a bit of sophistication to the countryside.

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

That's pure luxuy compared to my house when I bought it and 50X or more better than my first house. Insulation looks like the big issue.

yep, id imagine its cold doing the washing

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. Not dissimiliar to the chat re nothing to worry about MNCs downsizing their workforce due to global tax changes, they're based in Ireland for the highly qualified Irish workforce etc.

It seems like the most vocal proponents of this argument are fully paid up members of the highly qualified Irish workforce working for MNCs based in Ireland.

I think the most obvious thing in this thread is that there are many people posting who have not got a notion how these companies operate, who works for them, what the make up of their staff is etc.

Genuinely not a notion. Some of the stuff posted on this thread is bizarre, other stuff is just straight up falsehoods.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

How many of the team leaders in many of the multinationals are from eastern europe? Would they not jump at the chance of returning home? How many are currently WFH in eastern europe? It's a 2 - 3 hour flight away.

And the WFH decisions, like Liberty Insurance, are currently taking place and I assume their input, in many cases, is being taken.

And, Ireland isn't the multinational "hub" some make us out to be. Just this week on CNBC:

"Apple picks German city of Munich for major chip lab. Apple has 4,000 staff across Germany and it already employs 1,500 engineers across seven offices in Munich. It’s possible that some of them will be consolidated under one roof when the new building is ready. Munich is one of Europe’s leading tech hubs and other tech giants use it for R&D — Google employs around 1,000 people in the city."

And. that's just one city. I read before that Google employs c. 4,000 in Switzerland etc. etc. We're not really the multinational "hub" many make us out to be IMO

Link to CNBC article here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/apple-picks-german-city-of-munich-for-major-chip-lab.html

Exactly.

So according to PropQueries:

Liberty announce remote working, this is a trend setter, it indicates the future. They're all going to do this, here's the proof.

Numerous much larger companies than Liberty announce hybrid working. Apple literally announce new office space in the past few days. Nothing to see here, means nothing, let's talk about something else, not a trend setter, definitely not going to be the future. Sure Hybrid working could not possibly work, let's just ignore the fact that it's been a thing for decades.

You really do take whatever news you can find and try your best to twist it into the most negative possible news. I see we're back to the "they're all going to move to Eastern Europe" thing again. It is exhausting reading your posts.