2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I think the most obvious thing in this thread is that there are many people posting who have not got a notion how these companies operate, who works for them, what the make up of their staff is etc.

Genuinely not a notion. Some of the stuff posted on this thread is bizarre, other stuff is just straight up falsehoods.

So the Irish Times article on Liberty Insurance stating that "all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed". is a "falsehood"?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

So the Irish Times article on Liberty Insurance stating that "all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed". is a "falsehood"?

Nope, that is true.

But it's what you extrapolate out of this. You've taken this news, and now you're asking how many eastern europeans work for MNCs and all sorts of nonsense.

I've asked you this before but you obviously declined to answer. Why do you think the likes of Liberty announcing remote work is setting the direction of what's going to happen, while you think the Apples, Googles, Microsofts etc etc announcing hybrid working is not indicative of the future trends?

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Nope, that is true.

But it's what you extrapolate out of this. You've taken this news, and now you're asking how many eastern europeans work for MNCs and all sorts of nonsense.

I've asked you this before but you obviously declined to answer. Why do you think the likes of Liberty announcing remote work is setting the direction of what's going to happen, while you think the Apples, Googles, Microsofts etc etc announcing hybrid working is not indicative of the future trends?

As I believe I stated before, many companies will try this "Hybrid" model "nonsense" and once they do, they will realise very quickly it's not going to work and they will move very quickly to either full time WFH or full time in the office.

It looks like Liberty Insurance has already taken my viewpoint on it.

HansKroenke

Interested Observer wrote: »

A friend works for a pensions company, they have disposed of their office and told everyone there will be no office in future. Was done fairly unilaterally, no asking the employees, office just gone.

Commercial property is the ghost estate of the next bust. With commercial property values on the prime commercial street in Ireland written down 20-25% so far, this says it all. As has been said countless times, the pandemic has only accelerated trends, such as the lack of a need for bricks and mortar retail and physical office space. The bag holders are those who ticked the risky investment box in their pension form and international investors. To a large extent, the taxpayer in Ireland is insulated from this exposure.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

As I believe I stated before, many companies will try this "Hybrid" model "nonsense" and once they do, they will realise very quickly it's not going to work and they will move very quickly to either full time WFH or full time in the office.

It looks like Liberty Insurance has already taken my viewpoint on it.

so you know better than the executives at the most successful companies in the world?

JimmyVik

I just spoke to a friend with a fairly high position in Liberty.
It seems there may be more to this story than meets the eye. I cant say anymore
But i wouldnt be holding them up as the bellwether on WFH at this point.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

so you know better than the executives at the most successful companies in the world?

Never said that. It's only been 12 months. Companies will no doubt test various working procedures, but will eventually decide to go with either full time WFH or full time in the office.

Many would also have signed expensive office leases and may continue to use them until the next lease break. But either way, and I've stated it before, hybrid working won't be the end outcome in most cases and in many cases, full time WFH will be fully embraced eventually.

Mic 1972

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Are you talking about national or dublin prices? Your link also shows that prices for Dublin in 2019 and 2020 are lower than 2018

Both Dublin and non Dublin, 2020 prices appear higher than 2019 and 2018

DataDude

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Both Dublin and non Dublin, 2020 prices appear higher than 2019 and 2018

Thankfully, as has been posted by myself and others numerous times in response to your assertions, we have a Central Statistic Office which deals with such matters. In fact they just updated today and Dublin Jan-21 prices are 1.5% lower than their October 2018 PEAK. And that's in nominal terms, real terms the difference would be closer to 5%.

I guess it's only Props who gets in trouble for "repeatedly posting false statements"!

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/

tigger123

PropQueries wrote: »

Never said that. It's only been 12 months. Companies will no doubt test various working procedures, but will eventually decide to go with either full time WFH or full time in the office.

Many would also have signed expensive office leases and may continue to use them until the next lease break. But either way, and I've stated it before, hybrid working won't be the end outcome in most cases and in many cases, full time WFH will be fully embraced eventually.

The confidence and veracity of this position is truly baffling.

'It's either one or the other. But a mix of the two? NEVER!'

MacronvFrugals

From every angle the state is keeping the show on the road, Part V is a nice little earner for developers


'Eastwise to charge Dublin City Council €531k for two-bed apartments'

Eastwise, a Dublin construction firm, plans to sell 27 two-bedroom apartments to Dublin City Council for €531,000 each as part of the proposed development of a 475-unit complex on the north side of the city.

The developers are seeking planning permission for Hartfield Place, a development on the Swords Road between Santry and Drumcondra.

As part of its planning application, Eastwise is obligated to allocate 47 apartments – or 10 per cent of the complex

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/eastwise-to-charge-dublin-city-council-eur531k-for-two-bed-apartments-1a219e3f

tigger123

Article on the Irish Times a few moments ago: House price growth accelerates to 2.6% as market defies pandemic low'.

Linked here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-accelerates-to-2-6-as-market-defies-pandemic-low-1.4508597

Mic 1972

DataDude wrote: »

Thankfully, as has been posted by myself and others numerous times in response to your assertions, we have a Central Statistic Office which deals with such matters. In fact they just updated today and Dublin Jan-21 prices are 1.5% lower than their October 2018 PEAK. And that's in nominal terms, real terms the difference would be closer to 5%.

I guess it's only Props who gets in trouble for "repeatedly posting false statements"!

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/

I posted my source, I dont make up stuff

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

As I believe I stated before, many companies will try this "Hybrid" model "nonsense" and once they do, they will realise very quickly it's not going to work and they will move very quickly to either full time WFH or full time in the office.

It looks like Liberty Insurance has already taken my viewpoint on it.

As I believe I've told you numerous times before, hybrid working is nothing new.

For whatever reason, you continually ignore this fact.

JimmyVik

tigger123 wrote: »

Article on the Irish Times a few moments ago: House price growth accelerates to 2.6% as market defies pandemic low'.

Linked here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-accelerates-to-2-6-as-market-defies-pandemic-low-1.4508597

Its almost like we can find links to support any view we like

DataDude

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I posted my source, I dont make up stuff

Your source is clearly an unadjusted link to the PPR that's somewhat interesting but in no way statistically rigorous (again as posted by someone previously). Any dataset that shows a 4% rise from October 2020 to November 2020, followed by a fall of 7% from November to December should be treated with caution....

For example your "source" would indicate Dublin house prices fell by 6.4% from April 2020 to December 2020. We're in the midst of a major collapse so....

tigger123

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its almost like we can find links to support any view we like

I've been following this forum for years, and for years the price crash has been just around the corner, and somehow it never materialises.

fago

tigger123 wrote: »

Article on the Irish Times a few moments ago: House price growth accelerates to 2.6% as market defies pandemic low'.

Linked here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-price-growth-accelerates-to-2-6-as-market-defies-pandemic-low-1.4508597

To restate once again in terms of Dublin:
- no one including me, is arguing that they haven't increased YoY, but they are still clearly below the Oct 2018 peak.
- new dwellings YoY rate of increase (2%) is 10x the 2nd hand rate of increase .2% https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/newandexistingdwellings/

If you were looking at a 2nd hand house in Dublin at the median price it's 385,000*.002 (less than 1k) more expensive in last 12 months.

Some equally correct headlines without the wow factor:
- "Second hand house prices remain flat despite supply pressures"
- "New house price growth continues to diverge from 2nd hand prices"
- "Government policies for FTBs continue to underpin new homes market" :-)

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

As I believe I've told you numerous times before, hybrid working is nothing new.

For whatever reason, you continually ignore this fact.

The difference now is that the "showing your face" factor in the office may no longer apply to work your way up. Noone is going to be asking "did you see john recently" etc. If everyone, from the top down, is going to be WFH, then there's no real need for the hybrid model going forward.

They can book a meeting room at the local Hilton for any face-to-face meetings that are required IMO

Employees have been given out for years about those employees who worked in the office until 8 p.m. every night just to be seen to be working hard. Admittedly, some did need to work those hours, but the underlings felt they had to be there as well just "to be seen" and advance.

That most likely will no longer apply.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

From every angle the state is keeping the show on the road, Part V is a nice little earner for developers


'Eastwise to charge Dublin City Council €531k for two-bed apartments'





https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/eastwise-to-charge-dublin-city-council-eur531k-for-two-bed-apartments-1a219e3f

Who’d pay that to live on the north side? Some people just get notions

tigger123

fago wrote: »

To restate once again in terms of Dublin:
- no one including me, is arguing that they haven't increased YoY, but they are still clearly below the Oct 2018 peak.
- new dwellings YoY rate of increase (2%) is 10x the 2nd hand rate of increase .2% https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/newandexistingdwellings/

If you were looking at a 2nd hand house in Dublin at the median price it's 385,000*.002 (less than 1k) more expensive in last 12 months.

An equally correct headline "Second hand house prices remain flat despite supply pressures", but doesn't have the same wow factor.

I'm not arguing about whether or not there has been, or will continue to be, fluctuations in prices.

What I am saying is that posters in this forum have been predicting a bubble bursting or a major decrease in price for years, and it still hasn't happened yet.

Another take away (or headline) from the article could be that prices have remained relatively stable despite a once in a lifetime pandemic.

tigger123

PropQueries wrote: »

The difference now is that the "showing your face" factor in the office may no longer apply to work your way up. Noone is going to be asking "did you see john recently" etc. If everyone, from the top down, is going to be WFH, then there's no real need for the hybrid model going forward.

They can book a meeting room at the local Hilton for any face-to-face meetings that are required IMO

Employees have been given out for years about those employees who worked in the office until 8 p.m. every night just to be seen to be working hard. Admittedly, some did need to work those hours, but the underlings felts they had to be there as well just "to be seen" and advance.

There's plenty of reasons for the hybrid model, but one of the main ones is that it allows people to maintain the social and collaborative element of work, and balance their family responsibilities at home. It also allows companies to reduce their office space and pay less rent.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

The difference now is that the "showing your face" factor in the office may no longer apply to work your way up. Noone is going to be asking "did you see john recently" etc. If everyone, from the top down, is going to be WFH, then there's no real need for the hybrid model going forward.

They can book a meeting room at the local Hilton for any face-to-face meetings that are required IMO

Employees have been given out for years about those employees who worked in the office until 8 p.m. every night just to be seen to be working hard. Admittedly, some did need to work those hours, but the underlings felt they had to be there as well just "to be seen" and advance.

That most likely will no longer apply.

its almost like humans need no interaction at all

or trainees require no guidance or training.

it must be a terrible time to be a new intake into a big 4 or large legal firm.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

That's the issue. People see their neighbour getting "renovations" and the neighbour tells them it cost e.g. €50k, but will "increase" the value of their house by e.g. €100k.

Then, when they decide to get the same renovations and are quoted a similar figure, they just go with it as they have nothing to compare it to and believe the renovations will pay for themselves due to the potential increase in market value post renovation works.

As market values start falling, that mindset will change very quickly in the not too distant future IMO

Anyone who has had a property renovated will know that what you pay out you will not see a return on it you will be lucky to see 20% more than the same house without the renovations if your selling

PropQueries

tigger123 wrote: »

There's plenty of reasons for the hybrid model, but one of the main ones is that it allows people to maintain the social and collaborative element of work, and balance their family responsibilities at home. It also allows companies to reduce their office space and pay less rent.

And how long before people ask why they need to come in two days a week when they are doing their job perfectly well from home for the other 3 days?

And what's the point in one team coming in on e.g. Monday and Tuesday if the other team is in on Thursday and Friday?

There won't be any "collaboration" etc. in such circumstances and the executives will quickly just move most to full-time WFH IMO

tigger123

PropQueries wrote: »

And how long before people ask why they need to come in two days a week when they are doing their job perfectly well from home for the other 3 days?

And what's the point in one team coming in on e.g. Monday and Tuesday if the other team is in on Thursday and Friday?

There won't be any "collaboration" etc. in such circumstances and the executives will quickly just move most to full-time WFH IMO

What is your own experience of working from home, or working in a hybrid set up? How have you found WFH full time to effect your mental health, or your relationship with colleagues?

fago

tigger123 wrote: »

I'm not arguing about whether or not there has been, or will continue to be, fluctuations in prices.

What I am saying is that posters in this forum have been predicting a bubble bursting or a major decrease in price for years, and it still hasn't happened yet.

Another take away (or headline) from the article could be that prices have remained relatively stable despite a once in a lifetime pandemic.

I can't disagree with any of that, everyone suffers from confirmation bias.
Potential buyers anchor on the negative spin, the economy will collapse post covid, everyone is leaving Dublin, look at city X whatever.
Existing purchasers, vested interests anchor and echo the positive "Asking prices up X", "Very little supply"

The statistics (with the inevitable lag) move along indicating neither of the above is accurate, and the answer is somewhere in between.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

And how long before people ask why they need to come in two days a week when they are doing their job perfectly well from home for the other 3 days?

And what's the point in one team coming in on e.g. Monday and Tuesday if the other team is in on Thursday and Friday?

There won't be any "collaboration" etc. in such circumstances and the executives will quickly just move most to full-time WFH IMO

You operate under this assumption that nobody wants to be in the office ever. I think this is ultimately what is fueling your confusion as to how things work.

If your team is in the office, you can collaborate. Why do you think every single employee from every team needs to be there for it to be worthwhile?

I really do not understand why you keep thinking it's all or nothing. There is a reason that hybrid work is so overwhelmingly popular, at some stage you need to accept this.

tigger123

fago wrote: »

I can't disagree with any of that, everyone suffers from confirmation bias.
Potential buyers anchor on the negative spin, the economy will collapse post covid, everyone is leaving Dublin, look at city X whatever.
Existing purchasers, vested interests anchor and echo the positive "Asking prices up X", "Very little supply"

The statistics (with the inevitable lag) move along indicating neither of the above is accurate, and the answer is somewhere in between.

From my perspective, the unfortunate truth is that housing is so broken in this country, and supply of affordable homes so lacking, that not even Covid can impact it. I'm not seeing anything FF will do to turn it around either.

There's similar issues in other parts of Europe too; housing becoming more expensive coupled with the gap/stagnation in wages means that owning your own home is continuing to be outside of the grasp of a lot of working people.

IMO it's a complete failure on the part of society.

tigger123

awec wrote: »

You operate under this assumption that nobody wants to be in the office ever. I think this is ultimately what is fueling your confusion as to how things work.

If your team is in the office, you can collaborate. Why do you think every single employee from every team needs to be there for it to be worthwhile?

I really do not understand why you keep thinking it's all or nothing. It's non-sensical. There is a reason that hybrid work is so overwhelmingly popular, at some stage you need to accept this.

I can't wait to se all my work colleagues and friends again.