2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

yagan

Hubertj wrote: »

Who’d pay that to live on the north side? Some people just get notions

I've a strong suspicion that we're going to end up creating new inner city slums once the investor tide goes out. A lot of stock isn't fit for long term rentals as it slipped in under student accommodation and is even smaller than the Liam Carroll shoeboxes.

Retrospective planning permission for 500 such units to be switched to long term private rental down in the docklands was sought last summer, no sign of the international rental yield seeking funds snapping.

Money drives our planning policies, not social stability and we'll be paying for that in the long run.

thomas 123

Any timescale on the Shared Equity scheme?

As in when could one expect to apply? News seems to be dried up on it even after vote yesterday.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

You operate under this assumption that nobody wants to be in the office ever. I think this is ultimately what is fueling your confusion as to how things work.

If your team is in the office, you can collaborate. Why do you think every single employee from every team needs to be there for it to be worthwhile?

I really do not understand why you keep thinking it's all or nothing. There is a reason that hybrid work is so overwhelmingly popular, at some stage you need to accept this.

If you're working on one team, you generally know everything that's going on and you can zoom or email them when seeking help on a task or project as they are all on the same page.

When trying to get to grips with a company culture, you need to interact with all different teams from IT to legal to HR to some other group.

If the legal department team decides to come in on Thursdays and Fridays and your team decides to come in on Monday and Tuesdays, there is no "collaboration".

I fully understand the benefits of an office environment and that's why I say it's either full time WFH or full time work in the office. The hybrid model won't work if things like "collaboration" etc. are the primary reasons given to embrace it IMO

Mic 1972

eBay have rearranged their office space in D15 to accommodate for the 2-3 days office + 2-3 WFH
it looks like the hybrid model maybe the way to go for the future, as opposite to full WFH which most people have grown tired of

Mic 1972

DataDude wrote: »

Your source is clearly an unadjusted link to the PPR that's somewhat interesting but in no way statistically rigorous (again as posted by someone previously). Any dataset that shows a 4% rise from October 2020 to November 2020, followed by a fall of 7% from November to December should be treated with caution....

For example your "source" would indicate Dublin house prices fell by 6.4% from April 2020 to December 2020. We're in the midst of a major collapse so....

Who would look at sales trends on a MOM basis in the first place?
The report shows monthly sales, it gives an idea of where we stand. You can't compare one month with the previous one and pull a % drop like that.
Overall the 2020 sales, although low in volumes, have been consistently higher.
Anyone who has been bidding for properties in the last few months will be able to confirm this

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

eBay have rearranged their office space in D15 to accommodate for the 2-3 days office + 2-3 WFH
it looks like the hybrid model maybe the way to go for the future, as opposite to full WFH which most people have grown tired of

Probably just to appease and show some staff that "They gave it a go".


I'm calling it. It won't work

bilbot79

ReturnOfThe wrote: »

As I see it, the housing market is driven by a number of variables which tend to apply upward or downward pressure on prices.

Variables which pull house prices in the same direction.
Economic Outlook.
Population Growth.
Demand (Speculative in times of low interest, non-speculative in times of low supply).
Mortgage Approvals.

Variables which push house prices in the opposite direction.
Supply.
Interest Rates.

So if someone is looking for house prices to fall, they would have to be looking out for at least one of the below headlines in the papers..

Economic outlook deteriorating
Population growth being reversed
Demand falling
Mortgage approvals falling
Supply increasing and outpacing demand
Interest rates rising

I think most people will agree that none of the above look remotely like happening in the short to medium term except maybe for the last one and I'm beginning to think that maybe it would be a good thing at this stage as I think that low interest rates contributes (perversely) to rising house prices.

There are only 5 criteria there really with 4 under the umbrella of 'demand falling' + interest rates rising.

I think they are all present post-covid

Hubertj

If people can wfh full time but live in rural areas they will move to larger towns and cities. Who would want to be stuck in a 1 horse town all day every day. Get to the city and get a life. After all rents will plummet when hundreds of thousands of people based in Dublin flee to the countryside and occupy all the vacant units.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

If people can wfh full time but live in rural areas they will move to larger towns and cities. Who would want to be stuck in a 1 horse town all day every day. Get to the city and get a life. After all rents will plummet when hundreds of thousands of people based in Dublin flee to the countryside and occupy all the vacant units.

I don't think they will need to leave Dublin or other cities.

The very real possibility that a potential purchaser may now be able to choose to live in the city or outside the city and not worry about commuting times anymore will ensure that city property prices will fall to rural property prices with the possibility of a very small premium (c. 5%) for city properties IMO

Basically people can forget about hoping to achieve €600k+ on a e.g. Stillorgan 3 bed within the next couple of years IMO

thomas 123

Hubertj wrote: »

If people can wfh full time but live in rural areas they will move to larger towns and cities. Who would want to be stuck in a 1 horse town all day every day. Get to the city and get a life. After all rents will plummet when hundreds of thousands of people based in Dublin flee to the countryside and occupy all the vacant units.

Who would want to be stuck in a filthy city all day every day?

Horses for courses and all that ...

I also don’t think there are as many vacant “units” as you think the the countryside. Referring to a house as a unit is pretty sad also imo.

DataDude

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Who would look at sales trends on a MOM basis in the first place?
The report shows monthly sales, it gives an idea of where we stand. You can't compare one month with the previous one and pull a % drop like that.
Overall the 2020 sales, although low in volumes, have been consistently higher.
Anyone who has been bidding for properties in the last few months will be able to confirm this

We have a dedicated office that calculates house price inflation. Dublin house prices are down since October 2018 in both nominal and real terms. That is a fact. That is not my opinion.

Picking a clearly inferior dataset to try and contradict the official data is more disingenuous that anything you have accused props of before. In fact he has had comments moderated for less ‘obviously false’ statements.

Hubertj

thomas 123 wrote: »

Who would want to be stuck in a filthy city all day every day?

Horses for courses and all that ...

I also don’t think there are as many vacant “units” as you think the the countryside. Referring to a house as a unit is pretty sad also imo.

According to some of the experts on this thread there are literally hundreds of thousands of vacant units across the country. I have no reason to doubt the claims made by random punters on the internet.

I think the longer term picture is likely to be a lot more complex than one side saying "whod live in a shoebox" and the other saying "whod live in a field"

And yet that seems to be the only level a lot of people than operate at whenever the topic comes up.

thomas 123

Hubertj wrote: »

According to some of the experts on this thread there are literally hundreds of thousands of vacant units across the country. I have no reason to doubt the claims made by random punters on the internet.

Lol yes - and the magical affordable and perfectly normal housing market outside of Dublin also - it’s awful in Dublin but not exactly great anywhere else on this island.


Maybe Leitrim - but just Leitrim

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

According to some of the experts on this thread there are literally hundreds of thousands of vacant units across the country. I have no reason to doubt the claims made by random punters on the internet.

According to the CSO there are literally hundreds of thousands vacant units across the country. According to some of the experts on this thread you cannot believe the CSO.

thomas 123

schmittel wrote: »

According to the CSO there are literally hundreds of thousands vacant units across the country. According to some of the experts on this thread you cannot believe the CSO.

Are we talking about bordered up derelict buildings or property available for purchase or rent?

If it’s the former you know as well as I that that statistic is about as useful as the digital pixels it’s written on.

How many hundred thousand vacant houses are there by the way?

hometruths

thomas 123 wrote: »

Are we talking about bordered up derelict buildings or property available for purchase or rent?

If it’s the former you know as well as I that that statistic is about as useful as the digital pixels it’s written on.

How many hundred thousand vacant houses are there by the way?

Boarded up derelict buildings are not counted as vacant by the CSO. I believe it is a useful count.

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

I think the longer term picture is likely to be a lot more complex than one side saying "whod live in a shoebox" and the other saying "whod live in a field"

It does seem odd that the state is paying 500 to 900k for apartments for social/affordable when I'd imagine the market for such properties at that price is very very small from private buyers wishing to make it their home.

International trends are showing that with the exodus to the burbs and beyond for more space/value.

Continuation of building almost exclusivly for social and transient renters will make Dublin City centre less appealing into the future

thomas 123

schmittel wrote: »

Boarded up derelict buildings are not counted as vacant by the CSO. I believe it is a useful count.

Look at the data, the total available for sale or rent as of 2016 is ~20k. There is a large portion of other on the table also - so their could be an additional 10-20k(couldn’t be bothered working out the proportional probability based on the other types listed)

Here is a nice bit of data for you ~60k students do the leaving cert every year - for arguments sake let’s say 50k.

Let’s pretend they all decide to have a “normal” family together - the housing need at best for these 50k students is 25k “units”.

Don’t forget that’s every single year, year after year. House prices can only go up in the country, the demand is dwarfing the supply and the gap is growing.

In short we are f’d.

hometruths

thomas 123 wrote: »

Look at the data, the total available for sale or rent as of 2016 is ~20k. There is a large portion of other on the table also - so their could be an additional 10-20k(couldn’t be bothered working out the proportional probability based on the other types listed)

Here is a nice bit of data for you ~60k students do the leaving cert every year - for arguments sake let’s say 50k.

Let’s pretend they all decide to have a “normal” family together - the housing need at best for these 50k students is 25k “units”.

Don’t forget that’s every single year, year after year. House prices can only go up in the country, the demand is dwarfing the supply and the gap is growing.

In short we are f’d.

Believe me, I've looked at the data!

thomas 123

schmittel wrote: »

Believe me, I've looked at the data!

Then you would know there is not literally hundreds of thousands of units as you said earlier.

hometruths

thomas 123 wrote: »

Then you would know there is not literally hundreds of thousands of units as you said earlier.

The data says there are.

Are you saying it is misleading because 30-40k of these should not count because they available for either rent or sale?

fliball123

thomas 123 wrote: »

Then you would know there is not literally hundreds of thousands of units as you said earlier.

Wait till props kicks in saying there is nearly 1 million empty properties, including rooms over shops ...

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

So the Irish Times article on Liberty Insurance stating that "all staff, including its senior leadership team, will continue to work from home once the pandemic has passed". is a "falsehood"?

No, it's just irrelevant in the greater picture.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

According to the CSO there are literally hundreds of thousands vacant units across the country. According to some of the experts on this thread you cannot believe the CSO.

According to some experts on this thread MNCs are only here for tax purposes when it’s clear that’s a load of boll*x. They just can’t seem to believe that and make stupid throwaway comments about it.

johnnyskeleton

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I posted my source, I dont make up stuff

But your source doesnt show dublin prices higher in 2020 than in 2018. It shows them having dropped during that time!

Hence Im trying to figure out where youre coming from

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

According to some experts on this thread MNCs are only here for tax purposes when it’s clear that’s a load of boll*x. They just can’t seem to believe that and make stupid throwaway comments about it.

Guilty as charged.

2lazytogetup

Mic 1972 wrote: »

eBay have rearranged their office space in D15 to accommodate for the 2-3 days office + 2-3 WFH
it looks like the hybrid model maybe the way to go for the future, as opposite to full WFH which most people have grown tired of

i agree, i think the hybrid model is way going forward. need some face to face time for effective meetings and informal chats.

days when you just need to sit down at a computer and execute what was agreed at meetings, not sure what the point of going into an office to do that would be.

2lazytogetup

2lazytogetup wrote: »

i agree, i think the hybrid model is way going forward. need some face to face time for effective meetings and informal chats.

days when you just need to sit down at a computer and execute what was agreed at meetings, not sure what the point of going into an office to do that would be.

and on this basis, id say property prices in commuter towns will start to drop. im sure peopel are sick of ancedotal evidence. but i know people that would happily have stayed living in the west of ireland and just drive to dublin for a couple of days a week. instead of buying in a commuter town.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Guilty as charged.

Then why are the MNCs not all opened up in the 10 places on the globe that are even bigger tax havens than Ireland. You went out of your way to say Ireland was in 11th spot? Surely all the MNCs if it was all about tax or ways to get around paying tax then surely they would be based in the list outlined in here.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/09/uk-overseas-territories-top-list-of-worlds-leading-tax-havens

Could it be that Ireland offer something else besides this?