2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

TheSheriff

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Christ, this thread has gone a bit wayward. Any moderate bear prediction is immediately shot down, albeit not with facts, just statements or fluffy reports from institutions with vested interests predicting a "wild year of growth" , surprised bears haven't been cancelled at this stage.

Signing off boards until October this year, i predict second-hand property prices will start dropping by around 10-15% around that time on the condition that the economy reopens around June/July. I also don't think we will see general inflation across the board, there is a reason why we have record low interest rates and in some cases negative rates, it's priced in that there won't be a rate raise anytime soon as the slightest indication of a rate rise would send the markets into turmoil.

Whatever happens, this property market is currently a disaster whichever way you look at it.

Hope you have great health/wealth in 2021 and hold yourself accountable to your habits.

Is this not the second time you've said "I'm signing off until XX month?"

See you soon:D

thefridge2006

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Christ, this thread has gone a bit wayward. Any moderate bear prediction is immediately shot down, albeit not with facts, just statements or fluffy reports from institutions with vested interests predicting a "wild year of growth" , surprised bears haven't been cancelled at this stage.

Signing off boards until October this year, i predict second-hand property prices will start dropping by around 10-15% around that time on the condition that the economy reopens around June/July. I also don't think we will see general inflation across the board, there is a reason why we have record low interest rates and in some cases negative rates, it's priced in that there won't be a rate raise anytime soon as the slightest indication of a rate rise would send the markets into turmoil.

Whatever happens, this property market is currently a disaster whichever way you look at it.

Hope you have great health/wealth in 2021 and hold yourself accountable to your habits.

Fully agree. Bear opinions aren't welcome here, you'd swear there wasn't a world wide pandemic and recession lol . take it easy

Remember a few months back, when the radio talk shows were full of estate agent guests, talking about how they're inundated with people wanting to buy the ramshackled cottages around the country now that they can work from home.. did that ever materialise?

Haven't seen any real sign of those cheap and cheerful houses being snapped up (just yet)? Or is it just me with my blinders on?

Louis Friend

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Remember a few months back, when the radio talk shows were full of estate agent guests, talking about how they're inundated with people wanting to buy the ramshackled cottages around the country now that they can work from home.. did that ever materialise?

Haven't seen any real sign of those cheap and cheerful houses being snapped up (just yet)? Or is it just me with my blinders on?

That had to have been spoof. There’s too much uncertainty for people to do that. For all we know, things will be back to normal 11 months from now.
You’d feel pretty stupid leaving Dublin, for example, only to have to come back.

Zenify

Honestly, you would think some of the posters here are working full time putting up their predictions of property growth. I'm actually so tired of it, I've switched off boards a good few times because of it. I would really like a proper debate about the property market but as others have stated only one argument is allowed by some posters.

Dav010

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Remember a few months back, when the radio talk shows were full of estate agent guests, talking about how they're inundated with people wanting to buy the ramshackled cottages around the country now that they can work from home.. did that ever materialise?

Haven't seen any real sign of those cheap and cheerful houses being snapped up (just yet)? Or is it just me with my blinders on?

You should read the property magazine in yesterday’s Sunday Times, coincidentally increases in properties outside Dublin are being put down to people moving out of the capitol to wfh and returning from abroad. I don’t think it stated they are looking for ramshackle cottages, but you get the drift.

Timing belt

Zenify wrote: »

Honestly, you would think some of the posters here are working full time putting up their predictions of property growth. I'm actually so tired of it, I've switched off boards a good few times because of it. I would really like a proper debate about the property market but as others have stated only one argument is allowed by some posters.

What is it that you wish to debate? All views are welcome.... You were right on previous post that property should have fallen last year and thefridge2006 was correct in saying we have had a world wide pandemic and a recession. But as you pointed out we didn't see a drop in prices because of government/central bank intervention on a massive scale.

fliball123

Reversal wrote: »

But the narrative is that the demand has been there all along, only supply has been constrained.

Maybe but the means to get it as in people put on PUP payments where not allowed lending by the bank as well as there being very little to choose from when it comes to supply.

markodaly

Hubertj wrote: »

I think there are opportunities in hospitality medium term. Commercial rents will/are falling. Sadly, I think a lot of bars/restaurants/hotels etc will not reopen or will go it of business. Opportunity for someone else to take on a lease at lower rent with lower overheads etc...

A quote I heard during the week.

"Hundreds of thousands of people in Ireland are out of a job and unemployed, they just don't know it yet."

With Covid biting right now, but good news about vaccines rollout coming every day, we will see a re-opening of the economy come spring and full opening come the summer, which will see all the state supports to businesses and people being cut off, while many will then need to go it alone.

Some will be fine, others not so fine.

I saw something interesting about insolvency, where there are x number of businesses or companies going insolvent every year, a natural order of things.
Apparently, last year has seen a massive drop in this number, so there will be a pent up demand of the number of businesses going bang, never mind covid damaged businesses that are saddled with extra debt.

How this affects the wider economy and property market is anyone guess. Things seem to be upside down now. Big demand for property, right in the middle of a pandemic.

Timing belt

Almost 7 in 10 people in Ireland are living in homes ‘too big for their needs’

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/almost-7-in-10-people-in-ireland-are-living-in-homes-too-big-for-their-needs-39958654.html

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote:

Almost 7 in 10 people in Ireland are living in homes ‘too big for their needs’

Maybe people had kids, who have since grown up, and moved out, this is common the world over

hometruths

markodaly wrote: »

A quote I heard during the week.

"Hundreds of thousands of people in Ireland are out of a job and unemployed, they just don't know it yet."

With Covid biting right now, but good news about vaccines rollout coming every day, we will see a re-opening of the economy come spring and full opening come the summer, which will see all the state supports to businesses and people being cut off, while many will then need to go it alone.

Some will be fine, others not so fine.

I saw something interesting about insolvency, where there are x number of businesses or companies going insolvent every year, a natural order of things.
Apparently, last year has seen a massive drop in this number, so there will be a pent up demand of the number of businesses going bang, never mind covid damaged businesses that are saddled with extra debt.

How this affects the wider economy and property market is anyone guess. Things seem to be upside down now. Big demand for property, right in the middle of a pandemic.

Very good point about pent up insolvencies which adds to the logic that suggests the pent up property demand will be less than the pent up supply.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Almost 7 in 10 people in Ireland are living in homes ‘too big for their needs’

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/almost-7-in-10-people-in-ireland-are-living-in-homes-too-big-for-their-needs-39958654.html

Some interesting stuff in there:

Official statistics released by Eurostat reveal that 69.6pc of Irish people were living in dwellings deemed too large for their needs in 2019 in terms of excess rooms – more than twice the EU average of 32.7pc.

Only 3.2pc of the Irish population were classified as living in overcrowded households in 2019, although the figure has increased from 2.7pc the previous year.

It is still the second lowest rate among the EU’s 27 member states where 17.2pc of people on average live in households without enough rooms for their needs.

Housing crisis my foot!

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Some interesting stuff in there:





Housing crisis my foot!

I blame the adds by the banks...’you know it’s time to move when...’ lol

hometruths

More Euro data: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/digpub/housing/bloc-2a.html?lang=en

The highest housing costs in 2019 compared to the EU average were found in Ireland (77 % above the EU average),

Despite having the highest housing costs, the cost of construction has kept pace with EU average:



Whilst we are an extreme outlier in terms of cost, the EU says we are good in terms of affordability - EU average people spend 20% of disposable income on housing costs whereas we spend 15.7%. This surprised me.

Zenify

schmittel wrote: »

Whilst we are an extreme outlier in terms of cost, the EU says we are good in terms of affordability - EU average people spend 20% of disposable income on housing costs whereas we spend 15.7%. This surprised me.

wow that is surprising. I wonder if they broke it down into age groups would we see something different? I think our older age group are paying less and our younger age group are paying more...? any thoughts?

Timing belt

Zenify wrote: »

wow that is surprising. I wonder if they broke it down into age groups would we see something different? I think our older age group are paying less and our younger age group are paying more...? any thoughts?

If you take into account 1/3 of homeowners own their houses outright it will lower the average

hometruths

Zenify wrote: »

wow that is surprising. I wonder if they broke it down into age groups would we see something different? I think our older age group are paying less and our younger age group are paying more...? any thoughts?

Greece is highest at 40%, and at first I thought it might be something to do with fact that we would have far higher numbers of dual income households than Greece (as well as higher incomes), but that doesn't really hold in comparison to Denmark (27%) and Germany (26%).

Struggling to understand it I must admit.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

If you take into account 1/3 of homeowners own their houses outright it will lower the average

Are we an outlier in this? i.e any idea what the average % of people owning house without mortgage in EU is? We are not an outlier in terms of % owning property irrespective of mortgage status.

hometruths

Zenify wrote: »

wow that is surprising. I wonder if they broke it down into age groups would we see something different? I think our older age group are paying less and our younger age group are paying more...? any thoughts?

Might be something to do with the fact that mortgage payments are optional in Ireland!

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Might be something to do with the fact that mortgage payments are optional in Ireland!

I am struggling to find underlying data for this..... What I did find was how we was this graph from the ESRB report on housing

6541

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/timeline-ten-years-of-chaos-36156646.htmlThis just got posted in another thread.
it shows a timeline of Irish property - it's fairly shocking to be honest.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

I am struggling to find underlying data for this..... What I did find was how we was this graph from the ESRB report on housing

The only way that 1/3 of people own their houses mortgage free would skew our affordability figures would be if that was considerably higher than EU average - doesn't look like from that graph.

hometruths

6541 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/timeline-ten-years-of-chaos-36156646.htmlThis just got posted in another thread.
it shows a timeline of Irish property - it's fairly shocking to be honest.

If you believe in cycles (as I do) I'd say we are at a similar point to 2007, or at least we were in Jan 2020 pre Covid.

2007- There are signs that all is not well in the property market - new developments aren't selling out, buyers are pulling out of sales and a daft.ie report indicates a slowdown in prices in the second quarter of the year. But vested interests are still talking a buoyant game and not everyone is happy with those who question the strength of the market.

new developments aren't selling out - tick
buyers are pulling out of sales - not sure if this was commonplace
daft.ie report indicates a slowdown in prices - tick
vested interests are still talking a buoyant game - tick
not everyone is happy with those who question the strength of the market - tick

History does not repeat itself, but it tends to rhyme!

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

The only way that 1/3 of people own their houses mortgage free would skew our affordability figures would be if that was considerably higher than EU average - doesn't look like from that graph.

I have got the data source will pull the data together by age income etc in a bit..

The one thing that I did think of is that the ownership v renting may be different and older people would still be paying rent where as owners would have little cost

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

If you believe in cycles (as I do) I'd say we are at a similar point to 2007, or at least we were in Jan 2020 pre Covid.



new developments aren't selling out - tick
buyers are pulling out of sales - not sure if this was commonplace
daft.ie report indicates a slowdown in prices - tick
vested interests are still talking a buoyant game - tick
not everyone is happy with those who question the strength of the market - tick

History does not repeat itself, but it tends to rhyme!

Not all new devs not selling out??
Not all buyers are pulling out sales??
Daft is not showing a slowdown in prices. They went up the last 4 months of last year that had sales data?? I think when we get the full data set for last year prices will have increased slighty YOY. But we have to wait to see.
PPR shows an increase in actual volume as well from September on wards.
Vested interest talk a buoyant game at all stages of a cycle no matter if we are heading into a crash or a boom.

Who is not happy with the questioning. I might not agree with you or other posters on here but I do like the info that you bring and seeing it from a different point of view.

I have said time and again personal influences will sway a person decision to buy more than the market, the gov or anyone else.

Personally I bought last year just after the first lockdown . I went from a 3 bed room and upsized to a 5 bed with a nice bit of land and lockdown this time is far better I can let the kids out into the garden when they feel couped up and with the space we have it does not feel like a lock down.

If property dropped by the magic 50% that props kept going on about all last year I really wouldn't care as I wont be selling this place and will probably have enough room for my own burial plot so I will here long after I am dead Add in if the worst was now to happen say my wife and I both lost our jobs I know that I can stay here without paying the mortgage as this country do not do turf people out of the family home. So it is a safe bet as far as I am concerned.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Some interesting stuff in there:





Housing crisis my foot!

Type of housing. We discussed this before but I think the issue with older people is finding suitable housing to “downsize” to. In laws have spent a few years looking and yet to find something that ticks all boxes.

thefridge2006

markodaly wrote: »

A quote I heard during the week.

"Hundreds of thousands of people in Ireland are out of a job and unemployed, they just don't know it yet."

With Covid biting right now, but good news about vaccines rollout coming every day, we will see a re-opening of the economy come spring and full opening come the summer, which will see all the state supports to businesses and people being cut off, while many will then need to go it alone.

Some will be fine, others not so fine.

I saw something interesting about insolvency, where there are x number of businesses or companies going insolvent every year, a natural order of things.
Apparently, last year has seen a massive drop in this number, so there will be a pent up demand of the number of businesses going bang, never mind covid damaged businesses that are saddled with extra debt.

How this affects the wider economy and property market is anyone guess. Things seem to be upside down now. Big demand for property, right in the middle of a pandemic.

heard that on the radio myself. if you think about it, this global pandemic that has shut down the world for what will be over a year but has had no real affect on anything is down to Govs kicking the can down the road. This will come to a horrible end as there is no realistic way of continuing like this. When is the question....

Timing belt

Timing belt wrote: »

I have got the data source will pull the data together by age income etc in a bit..

The one thing that I did think of is that the ownership v renting may be different and older people would still be paying rent where as owners would have little cost

The following is the breakdown of the housing burden for Ireland


The following is the breakdown of the housing burden for the EU


And Finally the Eurovision of housing owners Burden.

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote: »

The following is the breakdown of the housing burden for Ireland

what a housing 'burden'?