2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Then why are the MNCs not all opened up in the 10 places on the globe that are even bigger tax havens than Ireland. You went out of your way to say Ireland was in 11th spot? Surely all the MNCs if it was all about tax or ways to get around paying tax then surely they would be based in the list outlined in here.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/09/uk-overseas-territories-top-list-of-worlds-leading-tax-havens

Could it be that Ireland offer something else besides this?

Probably the weather.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Probably the weather.

So I take it you have no answer for it and have to grudgingly admit that MNCs are in Ireland for other reasons other than tax rates and the weather

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

So I take it you have no answer for it and have to grudgingly admit that MNCs are in Ireland for other reasons other than tax rates and the weather

I don’t think tax is the only reason, but I do think it is the principal reason. And and I think anybody who claims otherwise is deluded. Just my opinion.

But the discussion is like everything else on this thread.

If somebody says, hmm, economy might be facing a bit of a headwind with these tax reforms, cue outrage and replies of nonsense, it’s a ridiculous suggestion that MNCs are all going to suddenly leave Ireland because of a change in the tax laws, they’re not here just for tax you know?

Em, I didn’t say all MNCs would all suddenly leave Ireland. Just wanted to have a sensible discussion about the future impact.

Just like WFH. I.e if somebody posts hmm this trend of WFH might be a bit of a headwind for Dublin prices. Cue outrage, nonsense it’s a ridiculous suggestion that everybody is going to suddenly uproot from Dublin en masse because of WFH, some people like living in Dublin you know?

Em, I didn’t say everybody would all suddenly leave Dublin. Just wanted to have a sensible discussion about the future impact.

Or affordability. If somebody posts saying houses are not affordable, cue outrage, nonsense, it’s a ridiculous suggest that everybody should be able to afford a mansion in Howth with a sea view.

Em, I didn’t say anything about mansions in Howth with a sea view etc etc.

So if we can’t have a sensible discussion about these things, sometimes it is more fitting to make a quip about the weather.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I don’t think tax is the only reason, but I do think it is the principal reason. And and I think anybody who claims otherwise is deluded. Just my opinion.

Tax is a reason, but one of a multitude, if it was the principal reason they would be in lower tax jurisidictions.

and the degeneration of these discussions are two way streets, you are happy to indulge the wildest of props fantasies and support him so dont try and make out like you are the sole bastion of sensible discussion on here.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Probably the weather.

It's definitely the weather. Optics matter and for years many politicians and many journalists associated tax havens with beaches and sunshine. Yes, they were most likely influenced by the Hollywood films they watched grown up.

Our connections in the states and being in the EU also gave us some cover as being a respectable member of the international community over the past 40 years and we played it very well.

That's all now changed and we're very much on the tax haven radar in both the states and the EU.

The fact is, and it is a fact, that most of these type of companies R&D on this side of the Atlantic is done in either the UK or other countries in the EU and that's as big a signal as can be given IMO

That's not knocking the impact and jobs created. They're more than welcome. But if our politicians are making decisions on the basis that the next 30 years is going to be exactly like the last 30 years, we're in serious trouble IMO

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Tax is a reason, but one of a multitude, if it was the principal reason they would be in lower tax jurisidictions.

and the degeneration of these discussions are two way streets, you are happy to indulge the wildest of props fantasies and support him so dont try and make out like you are the sole bastion of sensible discussion on here.

I certainly don’t agree with everything Props says. For example I think he’s completely wrong about the blended WFH.

Can you give me an example of an occasion I’ve been “happy to indulge the wildest of Props fantasies?”. Genuine question. I am trying to understand which ones you think are the wildest?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I certainly don’t agree with everything Props says. For example I think he’s completely wrong about the blended WFH.

Can you give me an example of an occasion I’ve been “happy to indulge the wildest of Props fantasies?”. Genuine question. I am trying to understand which ones you think are the wildest?

the absolute wildest one is the prediction of 75% price drops in the coming 12 months, which is what predicates the thinking behind most of the rest of his posts.

are you saying that you arent supportive of him?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

the absolute wildest one is the prediction of 75% price drops in the coming 12 months, which is what predicates the thinking behind most of the rest of his posts.

are you saying that you arent supportive of him?

To be fair, he has knocked me back on that one nearly as much as you

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

To be fair, he has knocked me back on that one nearly as much as you

he asked which one i think is the wildest, thats the one there.

but if thats your baseline everything else you say has to be taken in that context.

IMO of course.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

the absolute wildest one is the prediction of 75% price drops in the coming 12 months, which is what predicates the thinking behind most of the rest of his posts.

are you saying that you arent supportive of him?

I think Props prediction of 75% drops within the next 12 months is batsh*t crazy and have never agreed with it or indulged it.

Cannot be any clearer than that.

Any other wild fantasies i’ve Indulged?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

he asked which one i think is the wildest, thats the one there.

but if thats your baseline everything else you say has to be taken in that context.

IMO of course.

I asked which ones I indulged.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

he asked which one i think is the wildest, thats the one there.

but if thats your baseline everything else you say has to be taken in that context.

IMO of course.

Don't forget my theory that the so-called vulture funds own/control a significant percentage of the vacant housing stock in the country and that when they decide to exit...

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Don't forget my theory that the so-called vulture funds own a significant percentage of the vacant housing stock in the country and that when they decide to exit...

I’ve belittled that one as well.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I asked which ones I indulged.

you asked which fantasy was the wildest, i answered, as to which ones you indulged i really cba going back through the thread to pin point them to be honest.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

you asked which fantasy was the wildest, i answered, as to which ones you indulged i really cba going back through the thread to pin point them to be honest.

I asked which ones I indulged because I’ve never indulged any of his wild fantasies, as you call them.

hometruths

Though I must say I think he’s onto something about the weather!

Never considered the idea that our dreary weather lends our tax haven activities a veneer of respectability, contradicting the stereotypes of sandy beaches and pina coladas.

But now he mentions it... bang on the money once again Prop’s!

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Props being bang on the money is becoming quite the trend.

cool ill sit it out while you post stuff like this and thank each others posts then

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Assistant professor of architecture at UCD Orla Hegarty has been addressing the Soc Dems conference:



Sounds like she has a direct line to Props!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/construction-sector-spin-must-be-challenged-soc-dems-conference-told-1.4497193

and this is where our housing shortage is solved above shops and commercial units.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

and this is where our housing shortage is solved above shops and commercial units.

To be fair, neither me nor Orla Hegarty can take full credit for that idea. It was David McWilliams back in 2018:

"How come there are only 100,000 people living between the canals in Dublin when at the same time in Copenhagen there are close to 600,000 living in more or less the same footprint? Copenhagen a not high-rise city, rather it is an intensively-used six-storey city. The main difference is usage. In Copenhagen buildings are used in their entirety"

The possible big difference is that this time many of these types of buildings are actually controlled by foreign funds who may not be as willing to keep them as under-utilised for as long as their previous Irish owners did IMO

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

and this is where our housing shortage is solved above shops and commercial units.

Yep an example of something that Props posted on here and was immediately lampooned for, and then a similar idea subsequently aired by a respected commentator at a political party event, and subsequently reported in the media.

If experts such as this are spouting similar idea as Props, then those specific ideas cannot be dismissed as his wildest fantasies. You’ll need to try a bit harder.

Hubertj

For those leaving Dublin, follow the coffee. Key determining factor

https://www.starbucks.ie/store-locator?zoom=7&latLng=52.890887236468686%2C-8.492068113013127

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

aired by a respected commentator at a political party event, and subsequently reported in the media.

If experts such as this are spouting similar idea as Props, then those specific ideas cannot be dismissed as his wildest fantasies. You’ll need to try a bit harder.

an assistant professor at a soc dem event?

i wouldnt take that as validation of anything.

and as he said it self it came orginally from David McWilliams, i cant remember where you stand on him, i think it depends on what he is saying at the time.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

an assistant professor at a soc dem event?

i wouldnt take that as validation of anything.

and as he said it self it came orginally from David McWilliams, i cant remember where you stand on him, i think it depends on what he is saying at the time.

Sh's a Professor of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy and has been consulted by government, central bank, esri etc for expert opinion!

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

and as he said it self it came orginally from David McWilliams, i cant remember where you stand on him, i think it depends on what he is saying at the time.

Oddly enough yes, whether or not I agree with McWilliams depends on what he is saying!

Sometimes he says things I agree with, other times he says things I disagree with.

I adopt the same approach with Props posts. And your own. Hopefully I'm not an outlier in this!

drogon.

Hubertj wrote: »

For those leaving Dublin, follow the coffee. Key determining factor

https://www.starbucks.ie/store-locator?zoom=7&latLng=52.890887236468686%2C-8.492068113013127

Follow good coffee, not whatever they sell

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Sh's a Professor of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy and has been consulted by government, central bank, esri etc for expert opinion!

You should let her know that she has been promoted

https://people.ucd.ie/orla.hegarty/publications

PropQueries

Just looking at the share prices of the companies with most (all?) exposure to the Irish property market:

Cairn Homes: Today = €1.09 vs Jan 2018 = €2.00

Glenveagh: Today = €0.90 vs Jan 2018 = €1.26

Irish Reit: Today = €1.57 vs Dec. 2019 = €1.83

Hibernian Reit: Today = €1.15 vs May 2018 = €1.57

While Hibernian Reit (primarily office based investments) can be explained, why have the other three (primarily residential investments and primarily invested in the Greater Dublin region) moved in the opposite direction to what is both the public's perception and what the most recent data appears to show in relation to the movement of property prices in the Irish residential market?

Genuinely not a loaded question. Seems like one of the buys of the decade if someone is on the bullish side IMO

Even if someone believes the current low prices are down to the fact that share prices move according to international sentiment, they really should appear like a buy if someone believes that the Irish property market can indeed only go one way, rent or selling wise, going forward IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Just looking at the share prices of the companies with most (all?) exposure to the Irish property market:

Cairn Homes: Today = €1.09 vs Jan 2018 = €2.00

Glenveagh: Today = €0.90 vs Jan 2018 = €1.26

Irish Reit: Today = €1.57 vs Dec. 2019 = €1.83

Hibernian Reit: Today = €1.15 vs May 2018 = €1.57

While Hibernian Reit (primarily office based investments) can be explained, why have the other three (primarily residential investments and primarily invested in the Greater Dublin region) moved in the opposite direction to what is both the public's perception and what the most recent data appears to show in relation to the movement of property prices in the Irish residential market?

Genuinely not a loaded question. Seems like one of the buys of the decade if someone is on the bullish side IMO

Even if someone believes the current low prices are down to the fact that share prices move according to international sentiment, they really should appear like a buy if someone believes that the Irish property can indeed only go one way, rent or selling wise, going forward IMO

First off ideally you’d like to see them return to profitability, and secondly it depends on your view of the enterprise value , are glenveagh or cairn worth materially more than the 800m the market values them at right now ?

If they were you’d imagine someone would be looking to take them private .

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

First off ideally you’d like to see them return to profitability, and secondly it depends on your view of the enterprise value , are glenveagh or cairn worth materially more than the 800m the market values them at right now ?

If they were you’d imagine someone would be looking to take them private .

According to the Irish Times last week, Cairn Homes has 16,800 individual sites in the Dublin region. It's current market value is c. €800m

So, for Cairn Homes, it's basically completely valued at the current "market value" of their total sites?

That's a buy even if someone believes property prices will remain static going forward?

MacronvFrugals

Will we ever be able to fill these things?


"Permission granted for almost 20,000 student beds in 2020"

Apartments, powered by student accommodation demand, overtook houses when it came to planning permission being granted for new builds last year, while the green light for new homes overall grew by 13.5%.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40243325.html