2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will we ever be able to fill these things?


"Permission granted for almost 20,000 student beds in 2020"






https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40243325.html

Looks like the funds are finally getting through the "paperwork" from the €200 billion in distressed assets they purchased from NAMA and banks between 2012 and 2016 IMO

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will we ever be able to fill these things?


"Permission granted for almost 20,000 student beds in 2020"



https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40243325.html

Instead of asking the boards “experts” I’d look at the HEA reports on the subject.
I doubt a lot of them will get built or will be pushed out a Number of years. Besides there are literally hundreds of thousands of vacant units out there, possibly more.

L1011

If people could stop repeating things over and over for whatever effect they think it'll have, that'd be nice. You've made your point, often ten times over

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Will we ever be able to fill these things?


"Permission granted for almost 20,000 student beds in 2020"






https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40243325.html

I think what's interesting is that even the local councils have no idea what's being built in their local areas. Back in 2019, DCC asked a developer who wanted to build student accommodation in Dublin 7:

"The council has told the developer it has “serious concerns” in relation to “unacceptable levels of overlooking” of the primary school. It has also directed a map be submitted showing all student accommodation facilities within 1km of the site along with a justification for building student accommodation rather than standard residential accommodation."

How can DCC not already have this information? To use young peoples slang... like really?

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/more-student-housing-planned-close-to-grangegorman-campus-1.3884130

jill_valentine

In the interest of a change of topic then, a hypothetical -

Let's say for the sake of argument WFH or partial WFH becomes an established, totally normal element of the Irish working economy. Outside of Dublin, what towns would be most likely to benefit from the more mobile workforce and see a corresponding increase in property value? Would commuter/dormer areas suffer without their location offering the same draw anymore?

Lia_lia

jill_valentine wrote: »

In the interest of a change of topic then, a hypothetical -

Let's say for the sake of argument WFH or partial WFH becomes an established, totally normal element of the Irish working economy. Outside of Dublin, what towns would be most likely to benefit from the more mobile workforce and see a corresponding increase in property value? Would commuter/dormer areas suffer without their location offering the same draw anymore?

I would say parts of Kerry would go up in price. Lovely place to live (I grew up there) but not a lot of well paid jobs there.

Hubertj

jill_valentine wrote: »

In the interest of a change of topic then, a hypothetical -

Let's say for the sake of argument WFH or partial WFH becomes an established, totally normal element of the Irish working economy. Outside of Dublin, what towns would be most likely to benefit from the more mobile workforce and see a corresponding increase in property value? Would commuter/dormer areas suffer without their location offering the same draw anymore?

I think that depends on a few things. Look at the existing availability of broadband and also the national broadband plan to see what will be coming. Personally I would only plan for partial wfh irrespective of my current job in case I change jobs. Therefore somewhere commutable to a city maybe 2 days per week.

The most common problem that developer can buy journalist which will tell what developer want
The other problem the businessman could legally buy politician trough the lobby
The government will use media spreading news trying move economy forward and win second election
Guys,I dont know what you believe but for me all mess about the property in media at the moment remind group of people who try restart economy from first gear and get same profit as on 5th gear in 2019

thefridge2006

DataDude wrote: »

We have a dedicated office that calculates house price inflation. Dublin house prices are down since October 2018 in both nominal and real terms. That is a fact. That is not my opinion.

Picking a clearly inferior dataset to try and contradict the official data is more disingenuous that anything you have accused props of before. In fact he has had comments moderated for less ‘obviously false’ statements.

AMEN... Think he got threatened with a forum ban recently for something recently too?

If somebody did not understand what is going on I will try explain simple words
The mister X felt down from stairs and went to coma
The mister X was very big businessman and he paid wages to millions people
At the moment the company of mister X continue pay wages
But there is questions for how long management will continue pay wages,will mister X will wake up from coma and will be mister X same as he was before
Too many unknown and none known
At the moment if you still getting wages there is the best time buy property because if mister X will wake up there is same chance not get them as get them same as still have job to pay mortgage or get the mortgage
But one day to reduce mortgage rate to move builders forward mister X could decide take houses of those who will not pay mortgage
Nobody except God know what will going on.

ionapaul

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If somebody did not understand what is going on I will try explain simple words
The mister X felt down from stairs and went to coma
The mister X was very big businessman and he paid wages to millions people
At the moment the company of mister X continue pay wages
But there is questions for how long management will continue pay wages,will mister X will wake up from coma and will be mister X same as he was before
Too many unknown and none known
At the moment if you still getting wages there is the best time buy property because if mister X will wake up there is same chance not get them as get them same as still have job to pay mortgage or get the mortgage
But one day to reduce mortgage rate to move builders forward mister X could decide take houses of those who will not pay mortgage
Nobody except God know what will going on.

I'm not sure you succeeded in making a complex situation easy to understand!

ionapaul

ionapaul wrote: »

I'm not sure you succeeded in making a complex situation easy to understand!

We are in situation which world never was before.
And everything what was do job before not work anymore.

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

If somebody did not understand what is going on I will try explain simple words
The mister X felt down from stairs and went to coma
The mister X was very big businessman and he paid wages to millions people
At the moment the company of mister X continue pay wages
But there is questions for how long management will continue pay wages,will mister X will wake up from coma and will be mister X same as he was before
Too many unknown and none known
At the moment if you still getting wages there is the best time buy property because if mister X will wake up there is same chance not get them as get them same as still have job to pay mortgage or get the mortgage
But one day to reduce mortgage rate to move builders forward mister X could decide take houses of those who will not pay mortgage
Nobody except God know what will going on.

This still isn't coherent. Please don't try "explain" any further.

L1011

L1011 wrote: »

This still isn't coherent. Please don't try "explain" any further.

Please name me 3 economists which you follow everyday.Thank you

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

Please name me 3 economists which you follow everyday.Thank you

Do not reply to moderation. That also means - do not reply to this post either

L1011

thefridge2006 wrote: »

AMEN... Think he got threatened with a forum ban recently for something recently too?

Do not discuss moderation on-thread in any way, shape or form

The quality of posting in the past few pages here has been abysmal almost all-round. If it doesn't improve I will need to lock the thread for cleanup and sanctions

thefridge2006

Deleted User wrote: »

The most common problem that developer can buy journalist which will tell what developer want
The other problem the businessman could legally buy politician trough the lobby
The government will use media spreading news trying move economy forward and win second election
Guys,I dont know what you believe but for me all mess about the property in media at the moment remind group of people who try restart economy from first gear and get same profit as on 5th gear in 2019

You know we're in trouble when 25 new jobs and 50 new jobs are making the big news stories on the two major news papers in the last few days

Aldi to create 25 new jobs with new store in Co Cavan - the times
SL Controls will generate 50 jobs - indo

Pelezico

thefridge2006 wrote: »

You know we're in trouble when 25 new jobs and 50 new jobs are making the big news stories on the two major news papers in the last few days

Aldi to create 25 new jobs with new store in Co Cavan - the times
SL Controls will generate 50 jobs - indo

The biggest news was that scam pulled by the Davys 16. Those guys hit very greedy.

And the German Invsstment fund which burned lot of Irish hoping to make some money in renovations in Germany.

thefridge2006

I find it very ironic that Cyrus would give someone stick for being a cheerleader

L1011

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I find it very ironic that Cyrus would give someone stick for being a cheerleader

Attack the post and not the poster.

If there's no improvement in posting quality - practically every post is off-topic, actionable or both currently - the thread will be closed temporarily

TheSheriff

jill_valentine wrote: »

In the interest of a change of topic then, a hypothetical -

Let's say for the sake of argument WFH or partial WFH becomes an established, totally normal element of the Irish working economy. Outside of Dublin, what towns would be most likely to benefit from the more mobile workforce and see a corresponding increase in property value? Would commuter/dormer areas suffer without their location offering the same draw anymore?

I would say ANY Dublin suburb/commuter town which is on the train line/easy commute had upside potential.

For example, this house in Kildare (no idea of house prices in this part of Kildare), but its currently bidding at >50k over asking.

https://homebid.ie/searchproperties/7-boycetown-court

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I find it very ironic that Cyrus would give someone stick for being a cheerleader

Can you give a little context here ? What have I been cheerleading ?

HansKroenke

PropQueries wrote: »

Just looking at the share prices of the companies with most (all?) exposure to the Irish property market:

Cairn Homes: Today = €1.09 vs Jan 2018 = €2.00

Glenveagh: Today = €0.90 vs Jan 2018 = €1.26

Irish Reit: Today = €1.57 vs Dec. 2019 = €1.83

Hibernian Reit: Today = €1.15 vs May 2018 = €1.57

While Hibernian Reit (primarily office based investments) can be explained, why have the other three (primarily residential investments and primarily invested in the Greater Dublin region) moved in the opposite direction to what is both the public's perception and what the most recent data appears to show in relation to the movement of property prices in the Irish residential market?

Genuinely not a loaded question. Seems like one of the buys of the decade if someone is on the bullish side IMO

Even if someone believes the current low prices are down to the fact that share prices move according to international sentiment, they really should appear like a buy if someone believes that the Irish property market can indeed only go one way, rent or selling wise, going forward IMO

It's not easy to explain what's happening in equity markets with rational arguments. When you have central banks buying bonds in order to keep yields low, this is preventing equities from correcting themselves. However, central banks don't want to take their foot off the gas to let asset prices correct so who knows what is going to happen. What is happening in equity markets is that they have decoupled from the economy in which the companies operate. As such, I wouldn't read too much into the drops as explaining the drops in share prices with rational arguments like the property market has peaked or that Euro equities in general are falling due to the vaccine delays across the continent while the US economy is going to roar ahead in a few weeks, need to be couched in the lack of a free market in which those equities are trading.

Mic 1972

DataDude wrote: »

We have a dedicated office that calculates house price inflation. Dublin house prices are down since October 2018 in both nominal and real terms. That is a fact. That is not my opinion.

Picking a clearly inferior dataset to try and contradict the official data is more disingenuous that anything you have accused props of before. In fact he has had comments moderated for less ‘obviously false’ statements.

Not sure why you keep bringing up props if you have an issue with my posts

mcsean2163

HansKroenke wrote: »

It's not easy to explain what's happening in equity markets with rational arguments. When you have central banks buying bonds in order to keep yields low, this is preventing equities from correcting themselves. However, central banks don't want to take their foot off the gas to let asset prices correct so who knows what is going to happen. What is happening in equity markets is that they have decoupled from the economy in which the companies operate. As such, I wouldn't read too much into the drops as explaining the drops in share prices with rational arguments like the property market has peaked or that Euro equities in general are falling due to the vaccine delays across the continent while the US economy is going to roar ahead in a few weeks, need to be couched in the lack of a free market in which those equities are trading.

Nope, equities are generally inflated as deposit rates are negative.

There are empty apartments all over Dublin. Emigration figures are unknown.

I'd say uncertainty is high, there could be a massive crash or a big recovery when covid19 resumes.

Based on those figures, market is hesitant but not yet terrified.

bellylint

mcsean2163 wrote: »

There are empty apartments all over Dublin. Emigration figures are unknown.

just interested, where do you base/get that from? Would like to look into it more myself.

Hubertj

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-to-build-the-15-minute-city-1.4508694

Not sure if anyone posted this already but an interesting read. Author doesn’t think very high rise is required for the city. It makes some very good points on how the city could be better developed. I always thought that densification was the only way to go but doesn’t appear to be

Villa05

<SNIP>

PropQueries

There's a good editorial in the Sunday Times today:

"Ireland's mountain of national debt can’t be overlooked — it must be scaled. Ireland’s national debt will be the highest in Europe per head of population by the end of the year. This is according to the latest figures from the European Commission, which calculates that by the end of 2021 we will owe €241.6 billion. That’s up 10% on last year, and equivalent to more than €48,000 owed by every man, woman and child in the country, to use that old-fashioned metric. The debt mountain will grow even higher in 2022, it has been forecast."

However, the more interesting solution they suggest for paying down this debt is:

"The property tax can, which has been repeatedly kicked down the road, has to be prised open."

This makes sense as I don't think income taxes can rise much further and the ever increasing carbon taxes are already baked into the government revenue forecasts out until 2030. There can't be really any savings from social welfare either due to the high cost of living in this country e.g. primarily rents.

Another possible consequence of ever higher property taxes that may impact property valuations both today and going forward is, in my opinion, will mortgage lenders start to include future expected significant increases in both property taxes and carbon taxes into their loan to income limits going forward? Especially as these are well flagged or at least expected by the public going forward IMO

Link to editorial in the Sunday Times here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/editorial-ireland-s-mountain-of-national-debt-cant-be-overlooked-it-must-be-scaled-pdjtprd9f

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

"Ireland's mountain of national debt can’t be overlooked — it must be scaled. Ireland’s national debt will be the highest in Europe per head of population by the end of the year. This is according to the latest figures from the European Commission, which calculates that by the end of 2021 we will owe €241.6 billion. That’s up 10% on last year, and equivalent to more than €48,000 owed by every man, woman and child in the country, to use that old-fashioned metric. The debt mountain will grow even higher in 2022, it has been forecast."

It's the elephant in the roomwhen you add the projected move from:
5 workers for every 1 pensioner
To
2 workers for every 1 pensioner

Imagine what that will do to welfare and health budgets plus a policy of long term leasing of social housing

It would be advisable to prepare for national bankruptcy in the lifetime of your new mortgage