2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

The_Conductor

We need a separate property tax- ontop of a residents tax- the residents tax to pay for all local authority expenditure- the property tax to fund our national debt.

Vis-a-vis our national debt- even in this era of ultra low interest rates, we still paid almost 8 billion in interest payments on our national debt in 2020. People do not seem to have any cognisance of this- the average person walking down the street refuses on a point of principle to look at the bigger picture, and only sees whats in it for them.

The average person- has gotten it in their noggin, that printing money is both viable and indeed, preferable, to anyone paying down debt. This story/myth has been peddled by various parts of the political spectrum and the media- and by god they are going to howl when the day of reckoning comes.

I personally think that a reasonable property tax- based on a regularly reappraised value of the unit (say 1.5% of the value for example) is fair and reasonable- providing it is accompanied by a fair and reasonable residential tax- which would be completely ringfenced by local authority jurisdictions- so Dara in his McMansion in Leitrim- gets off lightly on the property tax- but pays the true cost of providing services, facilities and amenities to their McMansion in the arse end of nowhere. Meanwhile Mary and Mark in Dublin- get hit badly on the property tax- but get a break on their residential tax.

The first time round- there was no appetite to look outside the box on the 'property tax' and include an element of dwelling size in the calculation- when it was to pay for local authorities. Now we have an opportunity to revisit that travesty.

The harder thing of all- will be selling this to the Irish who have a fixation with owning property. Well, owning property- is going to be more expensive in future, come what may..........

A 5k per annum property tax charge- might reduce property prices by 10-15%? I don't necessarily think this would be a bad thing.

Let Revenue purloin all income- in a similar manner to PAYE, but to include people outside of the PAYE net- they are quite remarkably good at it after all.

So a whole new tax- paid by property residents- alongside a fair and reasonable property tax paid by property owners- to reflect both property prices, and also the actual costs of servicing local authority - to pay back a chunk of national debt (or to at least pay the interest on it).

The other mistruth being peddled- is how we can let inflation diminish the debt- well, in an era of low inflation- or negative inflation- that just doesn't happen. Did the EU manage to breach a 2% inflation level at any stage in the last 15 years?

We are so incredibly screwed.

jill_valentine

Villa05 wrote: »

It's the elephant in the roomwhen you add the projected move from:
5 workers for every 1 pensioner
To
2 workers for every 1 pensioner

Imagine what that will do to welfare and health budgets plus a policy of long term leasing of social housing

It would be advisable to prepare for national bankruptcy in the lifetime of your new mortgage

And what happens when many, if not most, of those pensioners are also still having to pay rent?

hometruths

bellylint wrote: »

just interested, where do you base/get that from? Would like to look into it more myself.

There is lots of discussion on it from both sides of the fence in this thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058118775

It's fascinating, but be warned, it's a rabbit hole!

cnocbui

The_Conductor wrote: »

We need a separate property tax- ontop of a residents tax- the residents tax to pay for all local authority expenditure- the property tax to fund our national debt.

...

The average person- has gotten it in their noggin, that printing money is both viable and indeed, preferable, to anyone paying down debt. This story/myth has been peddled by various parts of the political spectrum and the media- and by god they are going to howl when the day of reckoning comes.

I personally think that a reasonable property tax- based on a regularly reappraised value of the unit (say 1.5% of the value for example) is fair and reasonable...

The Irish solution to all problems - more tax.

My solution is less tax, increasing the available consumption capability of people so they can better afford housing and consumption, leading to increased economic activity.

The potential buyer of one of my properties recently said the bank had rejected her first loan application but her second has the verbal nod, so my dream of getting the feck out of this insane country is looking slightly more achievable. Happy daya.

Zenify

cnocbui wrote: »

my dream of getting the feck out of this insane country is looking slightly more achievable. Happy daya.

Where to?

cnocbui

Zenify wrote: »

Where to?

New Zealand. The drawbridge is up, but as I have two properties to offload and work to do to get planning compliant on one, hopefully by the time I get to a property free state, the road will be open.

Villa05

jill_valentine wrote:

And what happens when many, if not most, of those pensioners are also still having to pay rent?

David McWilliams has a saying that we are 3 big decisions away from greatness

I would argue the opposite is also the case. Failure to deal with housing affordability is 1.
Implementing polices that make it worse is another and these are both choices that are still available to us.

Housing could easily be a revenue generator for the state, we have chosen to make it a major drag

Some movements on rental market.
You could see HAP welcome when before nobody did not want it.

Hubertj

https://m.independent.ie/news/private-62-acre-island-with-a-microclimate-off-the-coast-of-west-cork-goes-under-the-hammer-40189426.html

What sort of “microclimate” do you get off the coast of cork?

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/news/private-62-acre-island-with-a-microclimate-off-the-coast-of-west-cork-goes-under-the-hammer-40189426.html

What sort of “microclimate” do you get off the coast of cork?

Snap, I thought exactly the same thing - with the winds off the Irish coast, that would be my nomination for Most Creative Bullsh​it in a Property Spiel award.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

Snap, I thought exactly the same thing - with the winds off the Irish coast, that would be my nomination for Most Creative Bullsh​it in a Property Spiel award.

To be fair it doesn’t really say that it’s better, or worse, than the mainland climate!

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

To be fair it doesn’t really say that it’s better, or worse, than the mainland climate!

I'd suggest extra rain days, more storms and general misery.

The_Conductor

cnocbui wrote: »

The Irish solution to all problems - more tax.

My solution is less tax, increasing the available consumption capability of people so they can better afford housing and consumption, leading to increased economic activity.

The potential buyer of one of my properties recently said the bank had rejected her first loan application but her second has the verbal nod, so my dream of getting the feck out of this insane country is looking slightly more achievable. Happy daya.

The problem is we are going to have to both pay more tax, and spend less- whether we like it or not. We will have the highest debt per capita in the EU in 2021 (at approx. 48,200 per head of population)- and our national debt is on a trajectory to continue increasing for the next 4-5 years.

We need to pull the brakes on spending- and simultaneously increase taxation.

We have an illusion of wealth in Ireland- an illusion that does not really exist, and its an illusion that we have been allowed perpetuate for the past number of years, as it suited not to call a halt to the party.

Ireland is an incredibly expensive little country- and we have been exceptionally generous to those in society who have difficulty in living the lifestyle they'd like here. All of this house of cards is going to tumble.

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

The problem is we are going to have to both pay more tax, and spend less- whether we like it or not. We will have the highest debt per capita in the EU in 2021 (at approx. 48,200 per head of population)- and our national debt is on a trajectory to continue increasing for the next 4-5 years.

We need to pull the brakes on spending- and simultaneously increase taxation.

We have an illusion of wealth in Ireland- an illusion that does not really exist, and its an illusion that we have been allowed perpetuate for the past number of years, as it suited not to call a halt to the party.

Ireland is an incredibly expensive little country- and we have been exceptionally generous to those in society who have difficulty in living the lifestyle they'd like here. All of this house of cards is going to tumble.

I just looked up Jobseeker's Benefit in 2010 and today. It was €196 in 2010 and it's €203 today.

Wouldn't that mean that the living standards of the unemployed have fallen significantly in real terms over the past ten years, which contradicts the narrative from some quarters that they're creaming it?

Given that social welfare (as the layman understands it) comprises a very small percentage of the budget, I just don't see any real savings to made there IMO

I also don't see how property taxes can be increased to such a level to make any difference.

They did come after our pensions last time. Does anyone have any ideas on how they will come after our savings which they appear to be keeping too close an eye on recently IMO

ExMachina1000

PropQueries wrote: »

I just looked up Jobseeker's Benefit in 2010 and today. It was €196 in 2010 and it's €203 today.

Wouldn't that mean that the living standards of the unemployed have fallen significantly in real terms over the past ten years, which contradicts the narrative from some quarters that they're creaming it?

Given that social welfare (as the layman understands it) comprises a very small percentage of the budget, I just don't see any real savings to made there IMO

I also don't see how property taxes can be increased to such a level to make any difference.

They did come after our pensions last time. Does anyone have any ideas on how they will come after our savings which they appear to be keeping too close an eye on recently IMO

Up to 1 million people don't pay income taxes in this country. The net needs to be widened

Villa05

ExMachina1000 wrote:

Up to 1 million people don't pay income taxes in this country. The net needs to be widened

Our housing policy has closed that particular door. A large portion of these people will be renting, there will be little scope to extract any more blood from that stone

PropQueries

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Up to 1 million people don't pay income taxes in this country. The net needs to be widened

Unfortunately that can't work due to the rapid rise in the cost of living for the lower income groups (e.g. rent etc.) over the past number of years. Contrary to the narrative, they really have nothing left to hand over in most cases.

All that would happen would be that the state would have to supplement their wages IMO

Even Simon Coveney stated a few months ago that "there could be as many people in his department on the Working Family Payment as in the whole of the Defence Forces."

They really are going to have to think outside the box on this one and the only source I see are our savings.

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coveney-many-civil-servants-in-my-department-are-on-family-income-top-up-like-members-of-defence-forces-39601376.html

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

The problem is we are going to have to both pay more tax, and spend less- whether we like it or not. We will have the highest debt per capita in the EU in 2021 (at approx. 48,200 per head of population)- and our national debt is on a trajectory to continue increasing for the next 4-5 years.

We need to pull the brakes on spending- and simultaneously increase taxation.

We have an illusion of wealth in Ireland- an illusion that does not really exist, and its an illusion that we have been allowed perpetuate for the past number of years, as it suited not to call a halt to the party.

Ireland is an incredibly expensive little country- and we have been exceptionally generous to those in society who have difficulty in living the lifestyle they'd like here. All of this house of cards is going to tumble.

They can start with the public sector. There are billions to be saved there. The 2% pay increase the other week was insulting to the country given the current circumstances. We have thousands too many admin staff and not enough front line workers - doctors, nurses, law enforcement etc. Public services need to clean up their own act while reforming the taxation system - broadening it etc.

back to the property market and the sinnn Fein housing policy for affordable housing. Does the purchaser get free hold or lease hold of the property? Are there conditions attached to purchasing your property for €240k or whatever number it is.

cnocbui

The_Conductor wrote: »

The problem is we are going to have to both pay more tax, and spend less- whether we like it or not. We will have the highest debt per capita in the EU in 2021 (at approx. 48,200 per head of population)- and our national debt is on a trajectory to continue increasing for the next 4-5 years.

We need to pull the brakes on spending- and simultaneously increase taxation.

We have an illusion of wealth in Ireland- an illusion that does not really exist, and its an illusion that we have been allowed perpetuate for the past number of years, as it suited not to call a halt to the party.

Ireland is an incredibly expensive little country- and we have been exceptionally generous to those in society who have difficulty in living the lifestyle they'd like here. All of this house of cards is going to tumble.

Agree with the gist, but I diagree with the idea I am going to have to pay for it. Not my debt, I'm off, and thanks for all the fish.

I havve to laugh at the tax more angle. We have the second highest CGT, One of the highest VAT rates. The highest inheritance tax rates. We have hidden sneaky stuff like levies on every form of insurance, we have the second most expensive car operating costs in the EU, which is mostly tax induced, including probably the most egregious gouge of all, VRT. And so it goes. What we never see, and which is the thing most needed, is any mention of reducing government expenditure, together with increased taxation of large companies. I know that's probably the biggest holy cow in the country, after the Catholic pedophilery, but it's why personal taxation has to be so high.

Irish governments are incapable of hard decisions; like cutting public service benefits and numbers; reposessing houses from defaulters; becoming less reliant on being a tax haven for US multinationals; looking at the cost of CO2 reduction targets and just saying nope; widening the tax base; fixing the legal system to make it cheaper for everyone, particularly the government itself.

I ran the numbers of your batshi​t crazy property tax proposal for my circumstances. I would be left with €4 K a year for 3 people to live on and my tax burden would be 85.3 % of my income.

But, hey, knock yourself out trying to squeeze more out of the stone (broke) middle incomers - I'll send you a post card.

Yurt2

Hubertj wrote: »

They can start with the public sector. There are billions to be saved there. The 2% pay increase the other week was insulting to the country given the current circumstances. We have thousands too many admin staff and not enough front line workers - doctors, nurses, law enforcement etc. Public services need to clean up their own act while reforming the taxation system - broadening it etc.

back to the property market and the sinnn Fein housing policy for affordable housing. Does the purchaser get free hold or lease hold of the property? Are there conditions attached to purchasing your property for €240k or whatever number it is.

Had a look there, there are clawback provisions if the house is sold withing a certain time period, usually 10-20 years (nothing unusual in that, standard terms for a publicly built unit).

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

They can start with the public sector. There are billions to be saved there. The 2% pay increase the other week was insulting to the country given the current circumstances. We have thousands too many admin staff and not enough front line workers - doctors, nurses, law enforcement etc. Public services need to clean up their own act while reforming the taxation system - broadening it etc.

Parts of the public sector are already quite slim in comparison to other OECD countries. Also- the 2% payrise is for a 2 year period to February 2023- during which time the rate of inflation is predicted to be 2.7% see here In light of the fact that the payrise is below the predicted rate of inflation- it is a cut in real terms.

Yes- there are too many admin staff- or even technical or medical staff in admin roles- we do need a seachange. We were promised a seachange in the HSE- when the old healthboards were abolished- however, instead of the predicted savings on admin and overheads- instead we ended up with bloat.

No politicians have the gonads to tackle this- indeed, some politicians actively defend it.

Hubertj wrote: »

back to the property market and the sinnn Fein housing policy for affordable housing. Does the purchaser get free hold or lease hold of the property? Are there conditions attached to purchasing your property for €240k or whatever number it is.

Fine Gael came out swinging on Twitter during the week- on the premise that Fine Gael was helping people to own houses, while Sinn Féin was only leasing houses to them. Either way- its nonsense- its largess from a government who don't have two brass farthings to rub against one another- trying to outdo each other and see who can promise the most ridiculous goodies to prospective voters.

People have no cognisance of just how much trouble this county is in- and how we are not going to be given the latitude that many politicians imagine they will have if/when they are voted in on promises of bestowing goodies on their constituents.

We are our own worst enemies.

cnocbui

The PS should not get a pay rise based in inflation! It should, at the extreme, only be based on the actual wage inflation of the non-PS sector. It's beyond rubbery to base real world benefits on future predictions. Wait for the real figures.

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

Parts of the public sector are already quite slim in comparison to other OECD countries. Also- the 2% payrise is for a 2 year period to February 2023- during which time the rate of inflation is predicted to be 2.7% see here In light of the fact that the payrise is below the predicted rate of inflation- it is a cut in real terms.

Yes- there are too many admin staff- or even technical or medical staff in admin roles- we do need a seachange. We were promised a seachange in the HSE- when the old healthboards were abolished- however, instead of the predicted savings on admin and overheads- instead we ended up with bloat.

No politicians have the gonads to tackle this- indeed, some politicians actively defend it.





Fine Gael came out swinging on Twitter during the week- on the premise that Fine Gael was helping people to own houses, while Sinn Féin was only leasing houses to them. Either way- its nonsense- its largess from a government who don't have two brass farthings to rub against one another- trying to outdo each other and see who can promise the most ridiculous goodies to prospective voters.

People have no cognisance of just how much trouble this county is in- and how we are not going to be given the latitude that many politicians imagine they will have if/when they are voted in on promises of bestowing goodies on their constituents.

We are our own worst enemies.

Too many vested interests in the public sector. No political party will take on and break the control unions have over public services.

Regarding the promises of parties in relation to housing, isn’t populism a wonderful thing.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

back to the property market and the sinnn Fein housing policy for affordable housing. Does the purchaser get free hold or lease hold of the property? Are there conditions attached to purchasing your property for €240k or whatever number it is.

The Sinn Fein policy is actually a pretty good one to be fair. There are two conditions attached:

The property can never be rented out on the private rented market, and it can never be sold on the open market at an unaffordable price. If the owner wants to sell the home, it must be sold back into the affordable housing scheme to another affordable purchaser at the future affordable housing price.

So basically if affordability is your biggest concern, buy a house in this scheme. Happy days.

If investment is more of a factor and you're looking for income or capital gains, then sorry this is not for you. Fair enough.

FGs attacks on it shows their mindset that they see rising property prices as the only game in town and compounding the current problems.

SFs policy has the wisdom of taking a longer term view by trying to create a subsector in the market of affordable properties that will be available for people facing the same problem in 5, 10 or 15 years time.

This is an altogether better approach.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

The Sinn Fein policy is actually a pretty good one to be fair. There are two conditions attached:



So basically if affordability is your biggest concern, buy a house in this scheme. Happy days.

If investment is more of a factor and you're looking for income or capital gains, then sorry this is not for you. Fair enough.

FGs attacks on it shows their mindset that they see rising property prices as the only game in town and compounding the current problems.

SFs policy has the wisdom of taking a longer term view by trying to create a subsector in the market of affordable properties that will be available for people facing the same problem in 5, 10 or 15 years time.

This is an altogether better approach.

How can you sell something at an unaffordable price? If someone can afford to buy something that makes it affordable.

So it is really redefining the concept of home ownership in that you don’t really own it.

Yurt2

Hubertj wrote: »

How can you sell something at an unaffordable price? If someone can afford to buy something that makes it affordable.

So it is really redefining the concept of home ownership in that you don’t really own it.

Super-yachts are affordable then by your definition. Because somebody's buying them.


Then again, nobody needs a super-yacht, but everybody needs a stable roof over their head.


This is the craic when talking about housing - people coming out with mad stuff to justify a mad property market.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

How can you sell something at an unaffordable price? If someone can afford to buy something that makes it affordable.

So it is really redefining the concept of home ownership in that you don’t really own it.

That's exactly what makes it a better scheme in the context of solving the affordability problem.

You can do everything you want with it except rent it out or sell it on the open market. The only thing you are giving up is potential rental income or market derived capital gains.

Sure that's unattractive for those people who can afford houses at current market rates, but for those that cannot it is a much better idea than taking on a bigger chunk of unaffordable debt.

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

SFs policy has the wisdom of taking a longer term view by trying to create a subsector in the market of affordable properties that will be available for people facing the same problem in 5, 10 or 15 years time.

You could easily implement proper market rules in the private sector, like if your not paying for it you loose the asset

Timing belt

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd suggest extra rain days, more storms and general misery.

There are gardens where tropical plants grow down west cork that won’t grow anywhere else in Ireland.. I think it has something to do with Gulf Stream and temp always staying high because of it.

https://curiousireland.ie/garinish-island-glengarriff-co-cork/

Mad_maxx

cnocbui wrote: »

New Zealand. The drawbridge is up, but as I have two properties to offload and work to do to get planning compliant on one, hopefully by the time I get to a property free state, the road will be open.

why New Zealand may i ask ?

they do have a much more pro workers taxation code , is it purely down to this ?