2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

I think on current spending ffgg will have the pigs ear





Are they the soft landing folk of 07. Ronan Lyons as well as some here reckon we have way too many family homes

I dont disagree with you about the current spend I think the last recession they wasted an ideal time to cut the fat in our spend. As for people who think we need more houses I believe the Central bank and Irish Government and ecconomists like mr McWilliams said it as well. Do you really think they are trying to hoodwink us?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-bank-says-34-000-houses-needed-each-year-for-next-decade-1.4110839

https://www.thejournal.ie/factfind-irish-government-houses-built-4918423-Dec2019/

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30905413.html

hometruths

One for Datadude at €1m? Serious renovation job required but smashing house in smashing location.



https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-4-edward-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dalkey-co-dublin/3144784

What does this go for?

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

One for Datadude at €1m? Serious renovation job required but smashing house in smashing location.



https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-4-edward-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dalkey-co-dublin/3144784

What does this go for?

Unfortunately for someone much richer than I! It was sold in September 2019 for €895k. Planning obtained and then straight back on market it seems, not a tap done. How much does value does the hassle of doing that add to someone with the money to take this on? €50k? €1m wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

I honestly wouldn't even be able to hazard a guess at the cost of renovating and extending it would be, but I'd be pretty confident it's (well) north of €500k. Someone will end up with a smashing 200sqm house on Sorrento Road though so huge interest no doubt.

Personally, whilst I love the area, houses on Sorrento and Coliemore (even the small ones) carry huge premiums which aren't worth it to me. I'd prefer a house on a less prestigious road nearby with more off street parking! Priorities I guess.

Zenify

schmittel wrote: »

One for Datadude at €1m? Serious renovation job required but smashing house in smashing location.



https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-4-edward-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dalkey-co-dublin/3144784

What does this go for?

I'm surprised it's so cheap. Can't believe it sold for less than that in 2019. I'd expect it to go for 1.3m or 1.4m.

There's a lot more value in properties higher up the market IMO.

It has twice the land and twice the square footage of houses being sold in crap areas for 500k. That's why I say it's cheap.

DataDude

Zenify wrote: »

I'm surprised it's so cheap. Can't believe it sold for less than that in 2019. I'd expect it to go for 1.3m or 1.4m.

There's a lot more value in properties higher up the market IMO.

It has twice the land and twice the square footage of houses being sold in crap areas for 500k. That's why I say it's cheap.

You might be right, it could go way through asking! You'd need a detailed survey and some estimates before saying for sure

I've come to the conclusion that the "value in the market" is always 25% higher than your budget, no matter what your budget is. My friends in the €600k range insist the value starts at €800k, and if you had that you could have the dream house. Those at €800k say it's €1m. I'm convinced the correct figure is €1.5m

Kind like when you ask people what the ideal salary is, always what they earn plus a bit!

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

Unfortunately for someone much richer than I! It was sold in September 2019 for €895k. Planning obtained and then straight back on market it seems, not a tap done. How much does value does the hassle of doing that add to someone with the money to take this on? €50k? €1m wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

I honestly wouldn't even be able to hazard a guess at the cost of renovating and extending it would be, but I'd be pretty confident it's (well) north of €500k. Someone will end up with a smashing 200sqm house on Sorrento Road though so huge interest no doubt.

Personally, whilst I love the area, houses on Sorrento and Coliemore (even the small ones) carry huge premiums which aren't worth it to me. I'd prefer a house on a less prestigious road nearby with more off street parking! Priorities I guess.

No front garden, half assed drive way (if you have a car).... that’s before stepping inside!

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

You might be right, it could go way through asking! You'd need a detailed survey and some estimates before saying for sure

I've come to the conclusion that the "value in the market" is always 25% higher than your budget, no matter what your budget is. My friends in the €600k range insist the value starts at €800k, and if you had that you could have the dream house. Those at €800k say it's €1m. I'm convinced the correct figure is €1.5m

Kind like when you ask people what the ideal salary is, always what they earn plus a bit!

You might be onto something with your value theory.

It will be interesting to see sale price of this compared to that hovel in sandycove posted a few days ago. There is only 150k difference in the asking.

If it is anything close to that difference in sales price, I’d say this house represents good value.

Both buyers will have to throw money at the renovations, and whilst one of the will end up with a fine big house on a premium road, the other will still have a fairly ordinary house in a fairly ordinary estate. (IMO!)

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

You might be onto something with your value theory.

It will be interesting to see sale price of this compared to that hovel in sandycove posted a few days ago. There is only 150k difference in the asking.

If it is anything close to that difference in sales price, I’d say this house represents good value.

Both buyers will have to throw money at the renovations, and whilst one of the will end up with a fine big house on a premium road, the other will still have a fairly ordinary house in a fairly ordinary estate. (IMO!)

that house would do nothing for me to be honest, it needs 500k minimum and you have the bare minimum of off street parking for one car and no prospect of parking anywhere close by because its narrow along there and all yellow lined.

There is a reason that its 'cheap' it certainly isnt for everyone even if you love dalkey. Proximity to finnegans is a plus.

there is a nice house right beside the entrance to the loreto primary school, similar style, sold for under 1m a few years ago, it looks more, but the drawbacks hindered the price.

awec

The parking situation would be off-putting on the Dalkey one. Particularly with the double yellow lines.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

The parking situation would be off-putting on the Dalkey one. Particularly with the double yellow lines.

Don’t underestimate the value of the double yellows. They’re adding value to that house.

I remember over 20 years ago some young lads from dalkey had a massive converted bus camper van. Huge big green and white thing.

Saw it regularly parked outside that house, much to the house owners annoyance blocking the light in his windows. No yellows in those days

PropQueries

More news from the WFH front. According to the Sunday Business Post:

"Reach, the UK publisher which owns the Irish Mirror, the Irish Daily Star and RSVP as well as a string of regional and online publications, will close two of its main Irish offices as part of a move towards permanent home working.".

How can any commercial office space anywhere be worth more than 50% of it's pre-covid value at this stage? Especially as there must be real uncertainty regarding around any office leases that start expiring over the next few years. Even if they have a 20 year lease remaining, the value of that building in 20 years time is valued at what?

Link to article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/media-marketing/newspaper-publisher-to-close-two-irish-offices-in-move-to-permanent-home-working-7b18ab7a

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

How can any commercial office space anywhere be worth more than 50% of it's pre-covid value at this stage?

The market generally disagrees with your outlook?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

The market generally disagrees with your outlook?

That's only because they're taking investors money, buying a building they know will be worth nothing in 10 years and pocketing their bonuses for the year

Mic 1972

DataDude wrote: »

Unfortunately for someone much richer than I! It was sold in September 2019 for €895k. Planning obtained and then straight back on market it seems, not a tap done. How much does value does the hassle of doing that add to someone with the money to take this on? €50k? €1m wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

I honestly wouldn't even be able to hazard a guess at the cost of renovating and extending it would be, but I'd be pretty confident it's (well) north of €500k. Someone will end up with a smashing 200sqm house on Sorrento Road though so huge interest no doubt.

Personally, whilst I love the area, houses on Sorrento and Coliemore (even the small ones) carry huge premiums which aren't worth it to me. I'd prefer a house on a less prestigious road nearby with more off street parking! Priorities I guess.

Prices have gone up quite significantly in the last 2 years it seems

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

More news from the WFH front. According to the Sunday Business Post:

"Reach, the UK publisher which owns the Irish Mirror, the Irish Daily Star and RSVP as well as a string of regional and online publications, will close two of its main Irish offices as part of a move towards permanent home working.".

How can any commercial office space anywhere be worth more than 50% of it's pre-covid value at this stage? Especially as there must be real uncertainty regarding around any office leases that start expiring over the next few years. Even if they have a 20 year lease remaining, the value of that building in 20 years time is valued at what?

Link to article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/media-marketing/newspaper-publisher-to-close-two-irish-offices-in-move-to-permanent-home-working-7b18ab7a

With all these WFH people one has to wonder why traffic is still so bad at rush hour

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

That's only because they're taking investors money, buying a building they know will be worth nothing in 10 years and pocketing their bonuses for the year

Or you're wrong and residential property won't lose 75% and commercial property won't lose 50% of their respective values.

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

With all these WFH people one has to wonder why traffic is still so bad at rush hour

People who previously used public transport now less likely to use public transport due to the pandemic?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

People who previously used public transport now less likely to use public transport due to the pandemic?

Once again any proof of this, did you stop everyone in a car over the last week and ask them this? Also arent they still going into work. Kind of puts a fly in your ointment that WFH is here now and no one will do blended or have to come into the office at all. Well at least not in the world according to props

yagan

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again any proof of this, did you stop everyone in a car over the last week and ask them this? Also arent they still going into work. Kind of puts a fly in your ointment that WFH is here now and no one will do blended or have to come into the office at all. Well at least not in the world according to props

Type in Dublin in the drop down.
https://covid19.apple.com/mobility

Hubertj

yagan wrote: »

Type in Dublin in the drop down.
https://covid19.apple.com/mobility

Whatever about wfh, I presume plenty of people aren’t driving or using public transport to go to work as they have no work to go to.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again any proof of this, did you stop everyone in a car over the last week and ask them this? Also arent they still going into work. Kind of puts a fly in your ointment that WFH is here now and no one will do blended or have to come into the office at all. Well at least not in the world according to props

All I ever said was that if a company introduces hybrid working, they will quickly realise that it's either full time in the office or full time WFH. 2 days in the office and 3 days at home still makes absolutely no sense to me.

And no, it hasn't been "tried" in the past and worked. That was some people working hybrid, not 90%+ of the employees.

Once they try 90%+ of the employees on 2 days in the office and 3 days at home and if it works, within 12 months, they will quickly shift to full time WFH and maybe one day a month in a meeting room at the local hotel for collaboration (whatever that is) etc. But even that will gradually disappear after a while IMO

I still stand by my either full time in the office or full time WFH.

Mic 1972

This morning it was pretty jammed getting out of my estate at 8:30 and i normally work from home so I had forgotten about it.
It looked like a normal pre-covid morning if you ask me.

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

People who previously used public transport now less likely to use public transport due to the pandemic?

Lots of people who previously used public transport didn't have a car and continue not to have one

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

This morning it was pretty jammed getting out of my estate at 8:30 and i normally work from home so I had forgotten about it.
It looked like a normal pre-covid morning if you ask me.

Given that the government advice is WFH until June...

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Given that the government advice is WFH until June...

Imagine after then, if it's already jammed now

The_Conductor

fliball123 wrote: »

Once again I pointed out we built up 200Billion worth of debt leading up to and during the 08 crash at a much higher interest rate than now. We have added 20 billion or so, in 2020 and probably the same for 2021 if Corona keeps us in lockddown..So we will have borrowed an extra 40Billion. But as I have pointed out over and over we have refinanced the existing 200Billion worth of debt at a much lower % point now than in 08 and will be borrowing the 40Billion for almost zero %. The amount coming out of the coffers for servicing the debt will be marginal at best. If we are in a position where the economy flat lines after corona goes then the ship will sink but we wont be the only country in this boat. For example the UK borrowed 400Billion for corona alone. Your guessing at best what if the economy takes off?? What if a high % of people go back working at the jobs there were doing pre-lockdown. Was this not the whole point of PUP and support for businesses so that when covid goes they can open up and go back to pre covid levels of consumer activity. Also when they open up people have been saving in record amounts the highest amounts in Irish savings accounts ever. So I can tell you there will a hunger for people to go out and splurg. Your opinion is so negative all the time, with very little factual data to support it. You really should go find a happy place Props.

We paid a smidgeon under 8 billion in interest last year (2020) and are projected to pay over 7 billion in each year over the next 4 years.

10% of our tax revenue- is going on servicing debt (assuming revenue of circa 80 billion).

Rates may be low- but we're not in a good place if we are hemorrhaging this level of revenue purely on funding debt.

By the way- we got off a 750m bond at -0.58% this week- notwithstanding this- we will be spending circa 22 billion more than our income in 2021.

I know its Covid time and everything- but seriously, our finances are so far out of kilter that they're just not funny.

The_Conductor

PropQueries wrote: »

How can any commercial office space anywhere be worth more than 50% of it's pre-covid value at this stage? Especially as there must be real uncertainty regarding around any office leases that start expiring over the next few years. Even if they have a 20 year lease remaining, the value of that building in 20 years time is valued at what?

Simples- convert a sizable quantity of office space into generous sized apartments, and solve two problems with the one stone.

There is no reason that this particular cloud couldn't have a silver lining.

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

Simples- convert a sizable quantity of office space into generous sized apartments, and solve two problems with the one stone.

There is no reason that this particular cloud couldn't have a silver lining.

Someone here posted an excellent point a good while ago and it was that the first impact will be felt in those office spaces above shops etc. that are used by small accountants etc.

Maybe the owners of such space will be incentivised to convert them into residential space fairly quickly as they would already be of the mindset to achieve maximum rental income from their investment property.

The interesting thing would be that, just like the student accommodation units, nobody will see this potentially large supply of new residential units entering the market as it would be a large number of small actors acting individually but all at the same time.

Pelezico

The_Conductor wrote: »

We paid a smidgeon under 8 billion in interest last year (2020) and are projected to pay over 7 billion in each year over the next 4 years.

10% of our tax revenue- is going on servicing debt (assuming revenue of circa 80 billion).

Rates may be low- but we're not in a good place if we are hemorrhaging this level of revenue purely on funding debt.

By the way- we got off a 750m bond at -0.58% this week- notwithstanding this- we will be spending circa 22 billion more than our income in 2021.

I know its Covid time and everything- but seriously, our finances are so far out of kilter that they're just not funny.

Alarmist ....we will slowly inflate ourselves and currency will lose value. Those with debts will be better off and those with savings or fixed incomes will suffer.

That is the only solution....by the way we are not alone in this si that is reassuring.

Property prices will not keep pace with inflation but will increase nominally and property taxes will also increase.

Zenify

Pelezico wrote: »

Alarmist ....we will slowly inflate ourselves and currency will lose value. Those with debts will be better off and those with savings or fixed incomes will suffer.

At what rate will we inflate ourselves out of debt? What inflation percent do you think will achieve this positive result?