2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

bubblypop wrote: »

nothing wrong with leitrim!
its two hours from Dublin, if you needed to be in the office for a day.

my brother & his girlfriend have been wfh for 12 months, they are renting in Dublin, now looking to buy in the countryside, Im sure there's many more like them.

I think they bring up Leitrim to knock back the idea. But Dublin is also only a 2 hour drive to Limerick City and a shorter distance from every town in between Limerick City and Dublin.

I think people fail to realise remote working has opened up vast swathes of the country as a possible place to live in the not too distant future.

How that impacts Dublin prices depends on how long sellers intend to wait for a rebound in demand that may now never happen.

donnaille

PropQueries wrote: »

I think they bring up Leitrim to knock back the idea. But Dublin is also only a 2 hour drive to Limerick City and a shorter distance from every town in between Limerick City and Dublin.

I think people fail to realise remote working has opened up vast swathes of the country as a possible place to live in the not too distant future.

How that impacts Dublin prices depends on how long sellers intend to wait for a rebound in demand that may now never happen.

I think people living further outside Dublin will happen, the question is whether it has a visible effect on property prices. Personally I think it’s too difficult to prove it as relevant or not - we could all debate it for weeks, but the data won’t exist to prove conclusive.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

There are and my theory is that once the owners see there's actually demand for them, they will refurbish them and then bring them to the market.

If they believed in 2019 that there was no real demand for their vacant property and it would only achieve c. €100k, even if they did spend €10k on refurbishing it and bringing it up to standard e.g. new windows, doors, heating, fitted kitchen etc., they probably weren't incentivised to do anything with it.

Now, with all this WFH talk, they may very well be incentivised to refurbish it (it would take 4 weeks max for the above) and bring it to market for e.g. c. €150k.

We're going to see an awful lot of these entering the market in the not too distant future IMO

10K for a house? You hardly can fit a single kitchen for that amount if it's includes change of windows&heating. You live in Ireland, you should know that labour is not that cheap in ireland, even without looking at the material costs.

Marius34

awec wrote: »

If anything it could be more expensive to buy the rural gaffs if what you say comes to pass, we could see a real surge in rural prices.

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to the rural gaffs becoming more expensive. It won't happen. There's too many of them lying vacant and if there really is a market for such homes, the owners of of these vacant homes will refurbish them and start bringing them to market in short order IMO

but it will

PropQueries wrote: »

If they believed in 2019 that there was no real demand for their vacant property and it would only achieve c. €100k, even if they did spend €10k on refurbishing it and bringing it up to standard e.g. new windows, doors, heating, fitted kitchen etc., they probably weren't incentivised to do anything with it.

Now, with all this WFH talk, they may very well be incentivised to refurbish it (it would take 4 weeks max for the above) and bring it to market for e.g. c. €150k

Hubertj

bubblypop wrote: »

nothing wrong with leitrim!
its two hours from Dublin, if you needed to be in the office for a day.

my brother & his girlfriend have been wfh for 12 months, they are renting in Dublin, now looking to buy in the countryside, Im sure there's many more like them.

Apologies I’m not saying there is anything wrong with Leitrim, I think 1 of the reports on vacant properties showed there area disproportionate number in the county.
Also need to consider the infrastructure where a lot of the vacant properties are depending on stage in life - childcare, schools, broadband - already available or part of NBP etc.

Depends on the state of “vacant” as well. Some geniuses seem to think it is cheap to refurbish a house.

Gael23

What’s the story with the property market after April 5th?

ExMachina1000

Will European tax laws be changing to reflect the supposed wfh revolution?
People dont need to even reside in the state to work for a company. Could it happen?

What percentage of fb, google etc employees are non national? Must be a high percentage. If they could return home but continue to work for those companies it would help our housing supply issues no doubt.

Would they face a pay cut though? 100k salary working for an "Irish based" company but paying Romanian or Lithuanian rents and living expenses would be a different standard of living altogether.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

but it will

"Bring to market at"

There may be some first mover advantage for the first few sellers but as more and more jump on the bandwagon, more and more will start entering the market and prices will fall below what they were even before the refurbishments etc. I think that's economics 101 and just like when Telecom Eireann started to have competitors, prices will plummet.

Remote working has now made housing little more than a commodity and home ownership will soon be available to everyone no matter how poor they are IMO

There is/will be no difference between living in Swords compared to a similar three bed in e.g. Leitrim and the prices of such houses will be similar.

Unfortunately, places like e.g. Dalkey will be competing with similar wealthy areas around the world so they will be severely impacted (price wise) as well IMO

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

"Bring to market at"

There may be some first mover advantage for the first few sellers but as more and more jump on the bandwagon, more and more will start entering the market and prices will fall below what they were even before the refurbishments etc. I think that's economics 101 and just like when Telecom Eireann started to have competitors, prices will plummet.

Remote working has now made housing little more than a commodity and home ownership will soon be available to everyone no matter how poor they are IMO

There is/will be no difference between living in Swords compared to a similar three bed in e.g. Leitrim and the prices of such houses will be similar.

Unfortunately, places like e.g. Dalkey will be competing with similar wealthy areas around the world so they will be severely impacted (price wise) as well IMO

There is a difference between Swords and Leitrim though. Swords is essentially a Dublin suburb and Leitrim is 2 hours away. Very different lifestyles on offer.

Or are we now pretending that this doesn’t matter?

PropQueries

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Will European tax laws be changing to reflect the supposed wfh revolution?
People dont need to even reside in the state to work for a company. Could it happen?

What percentage of fb, google etc employees are non national? Must be a high percentage. If they could return home but continue to work for those companies it would help our housing supply issues no doubt.

Would they face a pay cut though? 100k salary working for an "Irish based" company but paying Romanian or Lithuanian rents and living expenses would be a different standard of living altogether.

Leo appears to believe this will happen:

"Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford and Galway will be competing with Barcelona, Liverpool, Paris and Lisbon in the battle for talent. And talent can remote work from almost anywhere, so our cities need to be vibrant places where talent wants to live"

But, then again he's only the Tanaiste and his best buddy is only the Minister for Finance.

Link to Leo's interview on RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0318/1204784-living-wage-varadkar/

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

There is a difference between Swords and Leitrim though. Swords is essentially a Dublin suburb and Leitrim is 2 hours away. Very different lifestyles on offer.

Or are we now pretending that this doesn’t matter?

There is absolutely no difference between Swords and Leitrim. If you mentioned a similarly distanced suburb outside e.g. London, I would agree, but Dublin has absolutely nothing to offer that would entice someone to spend an extra c. €200k on a similar type house to be close to it IMO

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

Apologies I’m not saying there is anything wrong with Leitrim, I think 1 of the reports on vacant properties showed there area disproportionate number in the county.
Also need to consider the infrastructure where a lot of the vacant properties are depending on stage in life - childcare, schools, broadband - already available or part of NBP etc.

Depends on the state of “vacant” as well. Some geniuses seem to think it is cheap to refurbish a house.

Not only do they think it cheap and easy to renovate an old property, they think it's a given that the owner has the capital or ability to borrow to finance it.

I thought about renovating my old property, but the amount of money required to do so is prodigious and I would never remotely consider borrowing such a sum to do it as the repayments would be greater than I would want to take on and I am not convinced that I could recoup the value of the renovation on selling the property.

MacronvFrugals

It’s a double edged sword because our company has hired 60% of people from the UK in the last few months fully WFH, these would have been mostly Irish based ore-Covid, for a niche sector it opens up a whole lot of extra talent but not so great for Irish staff.

One way or another this will affect the market imo how can it not.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

"Bring to market at"

There may be some first mover advantage for the first few sellers but as more and more jump on the bandwagon, more and more will start entering the market and prices will fall below what they were even before the refurbishments etc. I think that's economics 101 and just like when Telecom Eireann started to have competitors, prices will plummet.

Remote working has now made housing little more than a commodity and home ownership will soon be available to everyone no matter how poor they are IMO

There is/will be no difference between living in Swords compared to a similar three bed in e.g. Leitrim and the prices of such houses will be similar.

Unfortunately, places like e.g. Dalkey will be competing with similar wealthy areas around the world so they will be severely impacted (price wise) as well IMO

No, there is no logic in here at all. They were not willing to sell for c.100K to buyers, but they would be if they can get 150K, and they will be ok to sell for 50K, when demands and obvious competition go up from WFH.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

There is absolutely no difference between Swords and Leitrim. If you mentioned a similarly distanced suburb outside e.g. London, I would agree, but Dublin has absolutely nothing to offer that would entice someone to spend an extra c. €200k on a similar type house to be close to it IMO

I think you’re talking a special kind of nonsense now.

Leitrim and Swords are exactly the same in the way Dublin and New York are exactly the same. Am I doing it right?

Or is it that everyone’s elses cities are great places to live? Irish cities are totally different, nobody actually wants to live near them. They’re just forced to?

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Leo appears to believe this will happen:

"Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford and Galway will be competing with Barcelona, Liverpool, Paris and Lisbon in the battle for talent. And talent can remote work from almost anywhere, so our cities need to be vibrant places where talent wants to live"

But, then again he's only the Tanaiste and his best buddy is only the Minister for Finance.

Link to Leo's interview on RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0318/1204784-living-wage-varadkar/

You have missed the critical ingredient in sarcasm.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

No, there is no logic in here at all. They were not willing to sell for c.100K to buyers, but they would be if they can get 150K, and they will be ok to sell for 50K, when demands and obvious competition go up from WFH.

Human psychology. Once they have refurbished and put it up for sale, they would have already spent the sales proceeds in their heads. If they were hoping to get €150k but now realise they will only get €50k, they will take the €50k in most circumstances if they see prices not ever increasing further.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I think you’re talking a special kind of nonsense now.

Leitrim and Swords are exactly the same in the way Dublin and New York are exactly the same. Am I doing it right?

Or is it that everyone’s elses cities are great places to live? Irish cities are totally different, nobody actually wants to live near them. They’re just forced to?

95% the case for most of the rural folk who were forced to live in Dublin for work purposes and I don't believe many of those Google employees would have chosen to live in Dublin if Google wasn't here.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

You have missed the critical ingredient in sarcasm.

Probably I'm fighting several different battles here at the same time

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Probably I'm fighting several different battles here at the same time

Did you start them, by any chance?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

95% the case for most of the rural folk who were forced to live in Dublin for work purposes and I don't believe many of those Google employees would have chosen to live Dublin if Google wasn't here.

95%? That’s quite the number.

What’s your source for this claim?

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Did you start them, by any chance?

No. I just put up a thought and it drives some people nuts for some reason. I kind of have to respond when they dismiss my argument outright

Hubertj

If prices fall as dramatically in Dublin as some geniuses predict it will see a lot of people who were priced out of Dublin move back in. Commuter towns could suffer because people can afford to move back to Dublin. In my opinion.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

No. I just put up a thought and it drives some people nuts for some reason. I kind of have to respond when they dismiss my argument outright

I can't imagine for the life of my why anyone would dismiss one of your arguments outright.

That's how you do sarcasm.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

If prices fall as dramatically in Dublin as some geniuses predict it will see a lot of people who were priced out of Dublin move back in. Commuter towns could suffer because people can afford to move back to Dublin. In my opinion.

Exactly. That has been my argument for quite some time. The price premium for city vs rural town prices will fall to maybe 5% maximum. The rural properties will always be there lurking in the background to keep on lid on prices in Dublin from rising even if demand increases due to falling prices.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Human psychology. Once they have refurbished and put it up for sale, they would have already spent the sales proceeds in their heads. If they were hoping to get €150k but now realise they will only get €50k, they will take the €50k in most circumstances if they see prices not ever increasing further.

When this phase is expected to happen for tens thousands of vacant rural gaffs?

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

95%? That’s quite the number.

What’s your source for this claim?

Myself. I grew up down the country and Dublin was very rarely mentioned as a place to live when we all left school. The nearest cities, yes, but hardly ever Dublin, unless that was the only place someone could do the university course or find the job they wanted to do.

I like Dublin but there really isn't anything here to entice someone to spend an additional €200k+ on a standard 3 bed to live here if they have the real option to live and work elsewhere. There's really nothing to grab the imagination of the younger folk to entice them to live in Dublin outside of being forced to live here for university or work.

MacronvFrugals

Capital dock has a 46% vacancy rate according to the latest Kennedy Wilson report.

It’s also not just ‘because of Covid’ these things were never filling with the outlandish cost for 1 beds.

Fund build to rent schemes are a sham and most importantly they waste valuable construction employee resources to then lie empty.


Will Ireland ever grow up?

mcsean2163

Just reading here and now understand that all the twenty somethings will be abandoning cities with universities, art galleries, restaurants, bars, nightlife etc. in order to live in the woods in Leitrim. This is fantastic news and hope that all those out bidding us will realise the error of their ways and wish them well in Leitrim.

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

There is absolutely no difference between Swords and Leitrim. If you mentioned a similarly distanced suburb outside e.g. London, I would agree, but Dublin has absolutely nothing to offer that would entice someone to spend an extra c. €200k on a similar type house to be close to it IMO

now, this is not true, Dublin has much more than Leitrim ever will.
Theatres, cinemas, resturants, cafes, classes, walks, meet ups, not to mention shops, all within walking or public travel distance.
Thats a big difference, you will have to get into your car to travel to get the weekly grocery shop in a supermarket in Leitrim.
Nothing is convenient in Leitrim. Which is fine for some people who want to live quietly in the countryside, but it's not for everyone.