2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Interested Observer

bubblypop wrote: »

now, this is not true, Dublin has much more than Leitrim ever will.
Theatres, cinemas, resturants, cafes, classes, walks, meet ups, not to mention shops, all within walking or public travel distance.
Thats a big difference, you will have to get into your car to travel to get the weekly grocery shop in a supermarket in Leitrim.
Nothing is convenient in Leitrim. Which is fine for some people who want to live quietly in the countryside, but it's not for everyone.

Aside from the most obvious one imo, your friends and family are unlikely to be in Leitrim unless you're from there.

I have lived in a large enough rural town and I have lived in Dublin, there really is nothing that would make me move back to the rural town from Dublin. I don't care how cheap the houses are. Saying there's no difference is just ridiculous.

MacronvFrugals

You now have funds buying portfolios directly and solely targeting social housing from the state, what a great deal But the dogs on the street know most of these developments will go that way.

Is this really sustainable?


39 units in Smithfield are let to Dublin City Council on 25-year inflation-linked lease

Global asset manager Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI) has made its first investment in Ireland’s fast-growing private rented sector (PRS) market, paying €20 million for a portfolio of 39 apartments in Dublin city centre.

Built by Red Rock Developments, the scheme at 19-20 Blackhall Street in Smithfield promises to deliver a steady and reliable return to ASI’s European Long Income Real Estate Fund, as it is being let in its entirety to Dublin City Council on a 25-year inflation-linked lease.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aberdeen-standard-fund-pays-20m-for-dublin-apartment-portfolio-1.4500219?mode=amp

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

You now have funds buying portfolios directly and solely targeting social housing from the state, what a great deal But the dogs on the street know most of these developments will go that way.

Is this really sustainable?


39 units in Smithfield are let to Dublin City Council on 25-year inflation-linked lease







https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aberdeen-standard-fund-pays-20m-for-dublin-apartment-portfolio-1.4500219?mode=amp

Does anyone know who is actually paying for the leases on a yearly basis e.g. is it actually DCC or central government?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Apologies I’m not saying there is anything wrong with Leitrim, I think 1 of the reports on vacant properties showed there area disproportionate number in the county.
Also need to consider the infrastructure where a lot of the vacant properties are depending on stage in life - childcare, schools, broadband - already available or part of NBP etc.

Depends on the state of “vacant” as well. Some geniuses seem to think it is cheap to refurbish a house.

Another of the reports showed a there are a disproportionate number of vacant properties in D4. Not saying there is anything wrong with D4

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

If prices fall as dramatically in Dublin as some geniuses predict it will see a lot of people who were priced out of Dublin move back in. Commuter towns could suffer because people can afford to move back to Dublin. In my opinion.

One of the more sensible arguments peddled on here that WFH won't affect Dublin prices is because people are settled where they live, kids settled in local schools etc and they are unlikely to uproot to their family just because they don't have to be close to the office anymore.

The same will happen in commuter towns. People moved to these towns in the first place because they were priced out of Dublin, but having established their lives there I cannot see them rushing back to the city because the houses are cheaper.

Certainly there is nobody in Greystones hoping that prices fall so they can move to Dublin.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Another of the reports showed a there are a disproportionate number of vacant properties in D4. Not saying there is anything wrong with D4

With neighbours like me I can see why people would leave their houses and apartments vacant.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

One of the more sensible arguments peddled on here that WFH won't affect Dublin prices is because people are settled where they live, kids settled in local schools etc and they are unlikely to uproot to their family just because they don't have to be close to the office anymore.

The same will happen in commuter towns. People moved to these towns in the first place because they were priced out of Dublin, but having established their lives there I cannot see them rushing back to the city because the houses are cheaper.

Certainly there is nobody in Greystones hoping that prices fall so they can move to Dublin.

I agree with you to an extent but places like Greystones have a lot more going for it than just being within commuting distance of Dublin.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I agree with you to an extent but places like Greystones have a lot more going for it than just being within commuting distance of Dublin.

Nowadays yes, but it wasn't always the case. Greystones has thrived because people were priced out of Dublin and made their lives here instead. As more people came, amenities followed, and more people followed the amenities etc etc.

My parents moved to the area from SCD in 1975 and my mother hated it.

My predictions for the impact of WFH is seeing a lot more towns filling up with new residents and ambitions to be like Greystones, and the transformation of these places happening much quicker.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I agree with you to an extent but places like Greystones have a lot more going for it than just being within commuting distance of Dublin.

But is it more to do with the people than the actual area? Like minded people generally live in the same areas. If that's down to education, similar class etc., I don't know, but most likely. Also, people who feel safe are generally more relaxed, friendly and open to strangers.

An influx of new people into an area like Greystones (even if they believe they're like minded) could change its appeal very quickly. I'm also thinking of the possible future use for e.g. Marina Village and it's possible impact on the town.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Nowadays yes, but it wasn't always the case. Greystones has thrived because people were priced out of Dublin and made their lives here instead. As more people came, amenities followed, and more people followed the amenities etc etc.

My parents moved to the area from SCD in 1975 and my mother hated it.

My predictions for the impact of WFH is seeing a lot more towns filling up with new residents and ambitions to be like Greystones, and the transformation of these places happening much quicker.

Greystones is right on the sea and very commutable to Dublin and also has the dart to be fair it’s an anomaly in that regard.

thefridge2006

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Just reading here and now understand that all the twenty somethings will be abandoning cities with universities, art galleries, restaurants, bars, nightlife etc. in order to live in the woods in Leitrim. This is fantastic news and hope that all those out bidding us will realise the error of their ways and wish them well in Leitrim.

twenty somethings will be going to college virtually for the foreseeable....i dont know many twenty somethings too interested in art galleries, especially interested enough to move to Dublin. twenty somethings eat in chain restaurants and finally twenty somethings couldn't care less where or what type of bars they attend as long as they get in and served with the opposite sex.
I'm a Dub and it really is an over priced kip.

Gradius

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

You now have funds buying portfolios directly and solely targeting social housing from the state, what a great deal But the dogs on the street know most of these developments will go that way.

Is this really sustainable?


39 units in Smithfield are let to Dublin City Council on 25-year inflation-linked lease







https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aberdeen-standard-fund-pays-20m-for-dublin-apartment-portfolio-1.4500219?mode=amp

When you have entities from here, there and everywhere queuing up at the door to buy your stuff, they aren't your new friends, they're here to capitalise on your stupidity, ad infinitum. You're so f'in stupid it's famous, the word on your stupidity has spread around.

Not to mention whether you should be selling at all.

1) you can't build enough housing because it's so expensive, apparently
2) instead, you'll sell what you do have mega cheap, then rent it back for many multiples of the price in perpetuity.

Something absolutely stinks in this country, something is fundamentally wrong and it's going to come back on us all, every last one of us with no exception spared.

enricoh

Gradius wrote: »

When you have entities from here, there and everywhere queuing up at the door to buy your stuff, they aren't your new friends, they're here to capitalise on your stupidity, ad infinitum.

Not to mention whether you should be selling at all.

1) you can't build enough housing because it's so expensive, apparently
2) instead, you'll sell what you do have mega cheap, then rent it back for many multiples of the price in perpetuity.

Something absolutely stinks in this country, something is fundamentally wrong and it's going to come back on us all, every last one of us with no exception spared.

I really hope some officials are getting serious backhanders out of these deals! It's about the only reason they should be signing up to them! It's a complete get out of jail card for developers, no one else was gonna buy them but we'll give you full whack anyway! Just lob in on the national debt - sorted!

tommyombomb

enricoh wrote: »

I really hope some officials are getting serious backhanders out of these deals! It's about the only reason they should be signing up to them! It's a complete get out of jail card for developers, no one else was gonna buy them but we'll give you full whack anyway! Just lob in on the national debt - sorted!

What gets me is that no journalist has done a proper article on this. Assume the gen public wouldnt be too impressed

Also nearly have more respect if back handers were given for these deals as otherwise they are total morons and the public is worse for letting it, myself included

bilbot79

Gradius wrote: »

When you have entities from here, there and everywhere queuing up at the door to buy your stuff, they aren't your new friends, they're here to capitalise on your stupidity, ad infinitum. You're so f'in stupid it's famous, the word on your stupidity has spread around.

Not to mention whether you should be selling at all.

1) you can't build enough housing because it's so expensive, apparently
2) instead, you'll sell what you do have mega cheap, then rent it back for many multiples of the price in perpetuity.

Something absolutely stinks in this country, something is fundamentally wrong and it's going to come back on us all, every last one of us with no exception spared.

Someone noted before that the funds buying apartments to rent will not drop their prices and instead leave them empty. Doesn't make sense unless:

The business model is in fact based on a long term view that the high rents will force potential homebuyers into a rent trap they can never escape from and which self perpetuates by preventing the ability of people to own anything. We Irish thought we got our land back!

The people should find a reddit type method of ganging up and battling them through coordinated action

Villa05

bilbot79 wrote:

The people should find a reddit type method of ganging up and battling them through coordinated action

Are many people aware this is going on. Irish media is wall to wall covid

What's going on is outright robbery

SmokyMo

Nothing will change unless there is serious campaign to take to the streets.
A lot of politicians and people attached to that industry, civil servants including, are making load of money and quite happy with way things are.

PropQueries

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PropQueries

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Gradius

bilbot79 wrote: »

Someone noted before that the funds buying apartments to rent will not drop their prices and instead leave them empty. Doesn't make sense unless:

The business model is in fact based on a long term view that the high rents will force potential homebuyers into a rent trap they can never escape from and which self perpetuates by preventing the ability of people to own anything. We Irish thought we got our land back!

The people should find a reddit type method of ganging up and battling them through coordinated action

In the midst of a global pandemic property costs have remained practically untouched despite the severe blows to employment, business, productivity, you name it. Does that make sense??

World war 3? Alien invasion? No, nothing stops Irish people paying through the arse, nothing.

It's the mythical golden goose, the rest of the world wants a piece of the action, and the government's are more than willing to sell the goose at a discounted price. The docility of the Irish person is shameful, to be honest.

Ireland is the new frontier, the wild west and they're tripping over themselves to lay their claims and take advantage of the suckers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFrVoG-edFc

Villa05

bilbot79 wrote:

Someone noted before that the funds buying apartments to rent will not drop their prices and instead leave them empty. Doesn't make sense unless:

It makes sense if you are the dominant player through government policy of taxing private landlords out of existence so the competition is chased out or heavily handicapped.

A large part of your income is derived from long term state guaranteed leases so by restricting supply you are controlling price thereby maintaining upward trajectory in inflation, rents and revenues. Your assets are valued at potential return so leaving them empty makes business sense

You pay little or no tax on profits so in effect like most public private partnerships, taxpayers money is gifted to private enterprise

Who pays for all this
Your children through rent gouging
The taxpayer
The economy through loss of competiveness
The nation through unsustainable debt

All this is achieved through our own government s policy. It is truly incredible that a government would enact such policy that is so stacked against a country and its citizens and economy

And when they are called out about it all we hear on this forum is

Look over there it's SF, they'll bankrupt the country. I'm leaving

Gradius

Villa05 wrote: »

It makes sense if you are the dominant player through government policy of taxing private landlords out of existence so the competition is chased out or heavily handicapped.

A large part of your income is derived from long term state guaranteed leases so by restricting supply you are controlling price thereby maintaining upward trajectory in inflation, rents and revenues. Your assets are valued at potential return so leaving them empty makes business sense

You pay little or no tax on profits so in effect like most public private partnerships, taxpayers money is gifted to private enterprise

Who pays for all this
Your children through rent gouging
The taxpayer
The economy through loss of competiveness
The nation through unsustainable debt

All this is achieved through our own government s policy. It is truly incredible that a government would enact such policy that is so stacked against a country and its citizens and economy

And when they are called out about it all we hear on this forum is

Look over there it's SF, they'll bankrupt the country. I'm leaving

I genuinely think the majority of Irish people are cowed through lack of information, or worse, half-information. If information on the state of the country were to be publicly disseminated I don't think people would be so friendly and accepting.

Tangentially, there was a segment on the RTE news about the struggles of the Fota Island facility in Cork. What isn't publicised is that it cost 90 million to develop, and was then sold for 20 million to Chinese by NAMA.

The news networks will tell you regularly about the suffering cost of the pandemic pup payments. They don't disclose that 25% of those payments are given to non-irish people.

Same with a lot of these building developments, the costs will be trumpeted until the end of time, but barely a whisper of who is profiting and who will eventually pay. The new children's hospital, anyone? That estate of houses, that block of apartments, that sewer system, that energy plant, that wing of that hospital...

What about the investor Visa's where you essentially pay for citizenship then get to claw back that investment?




It's too easy to say these things have nothing to do with property costs, but the simple fact of the matter is that they have everything to do with it. Business is business and financial realities exist, and then there's the line crossed into stuff being sold wholesale to entities with a direct interest in getting maximum profit left, right and center. The sale of social housing is perhaps a new low. Are people aware? No, I don't think so. That's not an accident.

It's so farcical you may as well lean in to the joke fully, "they live" all right

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLQ2d89vCiw

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

... I'm leaving

Very sensible, it's the only practical solution in the face of a government that is committed to selling out it's own populace to profit foreign 0.01 percenters behind REITs.

Apoapsis Rex

Villa05 wrote: »

Are many people aware this is going on. Irish media is wall to wall covid

What's going on is outright robbery

Anyone aware is being branded a conspiracy theorist as what is happening seems to allign with the Great reset plans that the world economic Forum has advertised on their website and mentioned in meetings with World leaders (all available to view online).

They propose that people will rent everything. Not just accommodation.
Wait for news that private construction will be kept closed on April 5th...

Marius34

bilbot79 wrote: »

Someone noted before that the funds buying apartments to rent will not drop their prices and instead leave them empty. Doesn't make sense unless:

The business model is in fact based on a long term view that the high rents will force potential homebuyers into a rent trap they can never escape from and which self perpetuates by preventing the ability of people to own anything. We Irish thought we got our land back!

The people should find a reddit type method of ganging up and battling them through coordinated action

There is one missing peace to make some sense for Landlords not to reduce drastically Rental price during Covid in City Center.
"A Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ) is a designated electoral area where rents can only be increased by up to 4% annually."

Hubertj

Gradius wrote: »

In the midst of a global pandemic property costs have remained practically untouched despite the severe blows to employment, business, productivity, you name it. Does that make sense??

World war 3? Alien invasion? No, nothing stops Irish people paying through the arse, nothing.

It's the mythical golden goose, the rest of the world wants a piece of the action, and the government's are more than willing to sell the goose at a discounted price. The docility of the Irish person is shameful, to be honest.

Ireland is the new frontier, the wild west and they're tripping over themselves to lay their claims and take advantage of the suckers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFrVoG-edFc

I can’t remember where I read or saw it, perhaps one of the experts on here posted the article but prices actually increased significantly in some Europe countries last year. Such a disconnect from reality. It’s a systemic issue and not just down to government policy (contributory factor)

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I can’t remember where I read or saw it, perhaps one of the experts on here posted the article but prices actually increased significantly in some Europe countries last year. Such a disconnect from reality. It’s a systemic issue and not just down to government policy (contributory factor)

Systemic global issue, yes
Government policy issue, major yes, cannot argue otherwise imo

As was the last crash.

Do we put contingency plans in place to protect against global issues or do we go all in and add considerably to those issues

Mad_maxx

i think things are going the way of the likes of NZ and that property is going to get a good bit more expensive , its difficult to find a western country in 2021 where housing is not very expensive bar Berlin which is an outlier in Germany

Gradius

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i think things are going the way of the likes of NZ and that property is going to get a good bit more expensive , its difficult to find a western country in 2021 where housing is not very expensive bar Berlin which is an outlier in Germany

I think a lot of these irrational price increases are due to outside influences. Underhand stuff that's kept more or less hush-hush.

You hear of Toronto regularly with it's empty apartment buildings, bought by foreign investors, while locals are gouged on the daily, thus beginning the cycle of non-ownership/no ability to ever own/social dissolution.

Increasingly I see no reason to honour such purchases that are directly detrimental to a nation. Pieces of paper can be written upon just as quickly as they can be burned.

And if there's no appetite from government's to serve the people's interests, if there's no recourse or possibility to improve the lives of a country, there are many other inflammatory actions to be taken.

The details of who owns what and where are all obtainable.

Let the prices continue to climb and climb. Why not have a 1 bedroom apartment cost 200 million euro? It's just as attainable as 10 million, or 800k. Watch the natural reaction take its course too.

PropQueries

Gradius wrote: »

I think a lot of these irrational price increases are due to outside influences. Underhand stuff that's kept more or less hush-hush.

You hear of Toronto regularly with it's empty apartment buildings, bought by foreign investors, while locals are gouged on the daily, thus beginning the cycle of non-ownership/no ability to ever own/social dissolution.

Increasingly I see no reason to honour such purchases that are directly detrimental to a nation. Pieces of paper can be written upon just as quickly as they can be burned.

And if there's no appetite from government's to serve the people's interests, if there's no recourse or possibility to improve the lives of a country, there are many other inflammatory actions to be taken.

The details of who owns what and where are all obtainable.

Let the prices continue to climb and climb. Why not have a 1 bedroom apartment cost 200 million euro? It's just as attainable as 10 million, or 800k. Watch the natural reaction take its course too.

I don't think it's as conspiratorial as all that.

In my opinion, it's more due to the globalisation of finance and that large funds can invest in any country and in any asset class. This may actually be the cure as these funds exit or decide to invest in other asset classes.

In fairness to many of them, they did build and they would have most likely sold or rented the completed units to the regular public as much lower prices/rents if the state didn't enter the fray and see them as the solution to solving their housing waiting list problem.

If the state pulls back, these funds will lower their pricing expectations quite quickly and their exit may actually benefit the next generation of buyers IMO

There have been many media reports of these funds entering into long-term leases with the local councils and then selling them on so this process is already in train IMO

The only unknown is when the state will pull back and I'm banking on around mid-2021 IMO