2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Mic 1972

Hubertj wrote: »

If prices fall as dramatically in Dublin as some geniuses predict it will see a lot of people who were priced out of Dublin move back in. Commuter towns could suffer because people can afford to move back to Dublin. In my opinion.

Prices are not going to fall anytime soon, whoever has been trying to buy in the last couple of years things have gone mental, less and less properties available, insane bidding wars.
Investors will pay any price at the moment

Gradius

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think it's as conspiratorial as all that.

In my opinion, it's more due to the globalisation of finance and that large funds can invest in any country and in any asset class. This may actually be the cure as these funds exit or decide to invest in other asset classes.

In fairness to many of them, they did build and they would have most likely sold or rented the completed units to the regular public as much lower prices/rents if the state didn't enter the fray and see them as the solution to solving their housing waiting list problem.

If the state pulls back, these funds will lower their pricing expectations quite quickly and their exit may actually benefit the next generation of buyers IMO

There have been many media reports of these funds entering into long-term leases with the local councils and then selling them on so this process is already in train IMO

The only unknown is when the state will pull back and I'm banking on around mid-2021 IMO

I do think there's an underhanded nature to this stuff, in so much as that it would go down like a lead balloon with the public if it were widely known.

For all the crying about expenses and lack of sufficient building by the media, the first hand experience of people at the coalface of bidding wars and excessive rents....pointing out that vulture funds and foreign interests are the competition and that they are specifically here to propagate outrageous prices is suspiciously quiet.

It would be incorrect to label it as a "conspiracy", it's more apt to call it the inevitable result of antagonistic forces overlapping. Like sending a crowd of drunken fools into a building filled with dynamite and detonators: they mightn't intend to blow themselves to pieces, but that will be the result nonetheless.

As for the government pulling back, these interests that now have a solid foothold are directly opposed to anything other than maximisation of profit. This country has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that property prices will be protected/pumped no matter what.

That's what these investors are here for, guaranteed returns from the golden goose of Irish people. They're not going to call it quits and sell the golden goose.

So, what do you do?

Gradius

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Prices are not going to fall anytime soon, whoever has been trying to buy in the last couple of years things have gone mental, less and less properties available, insane bidding wars.
Investors will pay any price at the moment

As someone pointed out, a woman was trying to buy a home and was outbid by the government, essentially. The government will then turn around to raise money by taxing this woman. So, bidding against herself.

Then, the cherry on top, they'll potentially sell this property to a vested entity whose sole purpose is to extract as much rent as possible. Or with equal chance, gift it to some migrant family that arrived off the last Ryanair flight.

It's like an assault from all sides on the average person thats supposed to benefit from having a country, crazy concept that its becoming

Hubertj

Gradius wrote: »

As someone pointed out, a woman was trying to buy a home and was outbid by the government, essentially. The government will then turn around to raise money by taxing this woman. So, bidding against herself.

Then, the cherry on top, they'll potentially sell this property to a vested entity whose sole purpose is to extract as much rent as possible. Or with equal chance, gift it to some migrant family that arrived off the last Ryanair flight.

It's like an assault from all sides on the average person thats supposed to benefit from having a country, crazy concept that its becoming

Is there something wrong with “migrants”?

Gradius

Hubertj wrote: »

Is there something wrong with “migrants”?

When a country...

1) can't build enough housing

2) sells existing housing to vultures

3) gives away free housing to people not even from this continent

All in the face of existing exorbitant costs, yes, of course there's something wrong with "migrants" receiving free housing. You expect a person to work their balls off their whole life and struggle with everything only to see someone from Brazil get gifted a home for life? It's bad enough to see anyone getting the ultimate leg-up for free, practically a lottery win, but not even from this country?

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

Cyrus

Gradius wrote: »

When a country...

1) can't build enough housing

2) sells existing housing to vultures

3) gives away free housing to people not even from this continent

All in the face of existing exorbitant costs, yes, of course there's something wrong with "migrants" receiving free housing. You expect a person to work their balls off their whole life and struggle with everything only to see someone from Brazil get gifted a home for life? It's bad enough to see anyone getting the ultimate leg-up for free, practically a lottery win, but not even from this country?

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

And there it is

L1011

Gradius is not to post in this thread again based on that selection of incendiary and worthless posts.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

And there it is

Well, when you've a "supposedly" limited resource, that's expected. Just look at the EU and their threats at an export ban on vaccines.

The Government should (and can IMO) resolve this current housing "shortage" immediately as it's the only way to stop these viewpoints taking hold. But labeling people with such views instead of providing plausible and timely solutions may make liberals etc. "feel good", but it will just drive people with such views further to the right and increase their base IMO

jill_valentine

Gradius wrote: »

When a country...

1) can't build enough housing

2) sells existing housing to vultures

3) gives away free housing to people not even from this continent

All in the face of existing exorbitant costs, yes, of course there's something wrong with "migrants" receiving free housing. You expect a person to work their balls off their whole life and struggle with everything only to see someone from Brazil get gifted a home for life? It's bad enough to see anyone getting the ultimate leg-up for free, practically a lottery win, but not even from this country?

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

The issue is not, by any means, some overpopulation scarcity.

If we have a significant supply of housing that nobody can live in - which we do, the exact figures are arguable, but there is absolutely no denying a ton of units are sitting idle in Grand Canal, there are whole blocks of student units sitting dark, and there is brownfield land all over Dublin growing dandilions - then decisions have been made to artificially lever the market, regardless of how many people vs places there are.

The scarcity then is artificial. And the reality is, it doesn't really matter how many people live here if the scarcity is artificial. The scarcity has been engineered - if the conditions change, it will simply be re engineered again to make sure the outcome's the same.

It is not an issue of supply and demand when supply is being kept out of reach strategically. If we launched every non-Irish born resident off the island tomorrow then, we would not suddenly solve the homelesness issue. The goalposts would just be quietly moved again.

Blaming migration is a distraction. A likely scapegoat, but a distraction. Like arguing about the other guy at the table over card counting when the casino pays in counterfeit cash.

Edit- apologies, didn't see the mod note.

ExMachina1000

jill_valentine wrote: »

The issue is not, by any means, some overpopulation scarcity.

If we have a significant supply of housing that nobody can live in - which we do, the exact figures are arguable, but there is absolutely no denying a ton of units are sitting idle in Grand Canal, there are whole blocks of student units sitting dark, and there is brownfield land all over Dublin growing dandilions - then decisions have been made to artificially lever the market, regardless of how many people vs places there are.

The scarcity then is artificial. And the reality is, it doesn't really matter how many people live here if the scarcity is artificial. The scarcity has been engineered - if the conditions change, it will simply be re engineered again to make sure the outcome's the same.

It is not an issue of supply and demand when supply is being kept out of reach strategically. If we launched every non-Irish born resident off the island tomorrow then, we would not suddenly solve the homelesness issue. The goalposts would just be quietly moved again.

Blaming migration is a distraction. A likely scapegoat, but a distraction. Like arguing about the other guy at the table over card counting when the casino pays in counterfeit cash.

Edit- apologies, didn't see the mod note.

This article (from 2011, you wouldn't get away with saying such things now) states that over half of the people/families on the dublin public housing list are non nationals with a third being non EU.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/herald/news/over-half-on-housing-list-are-foreign-27973856.html

One would wonder what the up to date figures are.

House building isnt at a rate to accommodate the indigenous population never mind the large number of immigrants. That's the reality. Like it or not

yagan

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

This article (from 2011, you wouldn't get away with saying such things now) states that over half of the people/families on the dublin public housing list are non nationals with a third being non EU.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/herald/news/over-half-on-housing-list-are-foreign-27973856.html

One would wonder what the up to date figures are.

House building isnt at a rate to accommodate the indigenous population never mind the large number of immigrants. That's the reality. Like it or not

The gas thing is in 2011 the indigenous population, including myself were emigrating to Australia and elsewhere because picking mushrooms wasn't going to pay the bills.

Like Irish diaspora in the past immigrant communities tend to want to cluster for community support which only adds greater pressures to the capital.

In the 80s I was one of those emigrants who'd cluster in cramped accommodation in the USA and I can see the same cycle repeating itself here now.

ExMachina1000

yagan wrote: »

The gas thing is in 2011 the indigenous population, including myself were emigrating to Australia and elsewhere because picking mushrooms wasn't going to pay the bills.

Like Irish diaspora in the past immigrant communities tend to want to cluster for community support which only adds greater pressures to the capital.

In the 80s I was one of those emigrants who'd cluster in cramped accommodation in the USA and I can see the same cycle repeating itself here now.

I was in Australia myself in 2009- 2015. And socialised with fellow irish people via sport and nights out etc.
Different system there though ie we all had to rent. There is no tax payer funded housing for migrants.

Villa05

Gradius wrote:

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

Just For the record what is happening is not the fault of foreign nationals or refugees.

This is a scam feisted upon people working in Ireland by people elected to to represent the best interests of Irish people

This is very much a homegrown issue

Gradius

Gradius wrote: »

When a country...

1) can't build enough housing

2) sells existing housing to vultures

3) gives away free housing to people not even from this continent

All in the face of existing exorbitant costs, yes, of course there's something wrong with "migrants" receiving free housing. You expect a person to work their balls off their whole life and struggle with everything only to see someone from Brazil get gifted a home for life? It's bad enough to see anyone getting the ultimate leg-up for free, practically a lottery win, but not even from this country?

What kind of blind fool would NOT see it as a problem?

Do all migrants get free houses then?
Do Brazilians get free houses?

yagan

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I was in Australia myself in 2009- 2015. And socialised with fellow irish people via sport and nights out etc.
Different system there though ie we all had to rent. There is no tax payer funded housing for migrants.

Do Brazilian butchers and filipino health staff get free gaffs from the state?

The working conditions revealed by covid in Irish factories is putting me off meat.

As far as I can see there's probably loads of live in indentured slavery happening in wealthy suburbs around Ireland that no one wants to talk about but lets blame the immigrants for the vested interests who've fúcked over this nation which casino driven planning policies.

yagan

yagan wrote: »

Do Brazilian butchers and filipino health staff get free gaffs from the state?

The working conditions revealed by covid in Irish factories is putting me off meat.

As far as I can see there's probably loads of live in indentured slavery happening in wealthy suburbs around Ireland that no one wants to talk about but lets blame the immigrants for the vested interests who've fúcked over this nation which casino driven planning policies.

In last month 4 families left Ireland from my side.1 family came back home to Eastern Europe were they can enjoy pension from Ireland at home which will pay brazilians working low paid jobs in Ireland.This family working low paid job paid pensions to irish people.They left empty house on renting market which will be easily occupied by cheap brazilians.

Show must go On my friend !

Well,the more cheap labor from Brazil ( around 220 millions population ) will come the more local work force will get smaller wages due with ordinary Competition on jobs market

What will help you buy house cheaper.

enricoh

bubblypop wrote: »

Do all migrants get free houses then?
Do Brazilians get free houses?

No, but theres certainly plenty that do get them for a pittance.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/huge-scale-of-immigration-is-making-our-housing-crisis-worse-35498057.html
Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc. This is a remarkable total. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

ExMachina1000

yagan wrote: »

Do Brazilian butchers and filipino health staff get free gaffs from the state?

They might do. 50% of the people registered on the public housing list as per the Irish independent article were non nationals with one third of those being non EU.

Figures quoted were from Dublin city council.

If you are talking about non EU meat workers they are in shared accommodation payed for by employers and if non EU they are on some kind of temporary worker visa.

Building enough houses to hand over to any Irish person who wants or needs one is the stuff of fantasy. The supply is already extremely tight without housing non nationals.

Am I wrong?

L1011

This is not the thread or forum to discuss migration.

yagan

<MOD SNIP>

see previous post.

I only saw your mod note after I'd posted my reply to Exmachina.

thefridge2006

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I was in Australia myself in 2009- 2015. And socialised with fellow irish people via sport and nights out etc.
Different system there though ie we all had to rent. There is no tax payer funded housing for migrants.

you mean to tell me you don't get free gafs over in Oz worth in the region of €700,000 and €950,000.????????

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/social-tenants-in-rathgar-complex-excluded-from-certain-facilities-1.4415042

Baby01032012

thefridge2006 wrote: »

you mean to tell me you don't get free gafs over in Oz worth in the region of €700,000 and €950,000.????????

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/social-tenants-in-rathgar-complex-excluded-from-certain-facilities-1.4415042

I’m looking forward to this thread getting back on topic on the Irish property market!

thefridge2006

Baby01032012 wrote: »

I’m looking forward to this thread getting back on topic on the Irish property market!

in the region of €700,000 and €950,000....... let that sink in....... DCC bought 19 units

Baby01032012

thefridge2006 wrote: »

in the region of €700,000 and €950,000....... let that sink in....... DCC bought 19 units

Yes I appreciate the craziness. All county councils and voluntary housing associations have masses of money to spend on social housing. However instead of a concerted effort and policy to use this money build social housing it is put into any privately built housing. There is pressure to use funds available. They have deadlines and unit targets to meet. And to buy where multiple units can be bought. No strategic planning or cost analysis is undertaken. I deal with DCC and housing associations who will pay top dollar for top end apartments in most expensive parts of Dublin.

Graham

Gucciblues wrote: »

This is the "Irish Property Market Chat" topic, not the "Selective Elements of the Irish Property Market Chat" topic.

Gucciblues welcome.

Please take a few minutes to familiarise yourself with the forum charter before posting again.

Hubertj

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-councils-accused-of-wasting-taxpayers-money-by-leasing-social-housing-1.4516158

Does Elon O’Brin read boards.ie? Question still remains how do councils deliver housing short term.

enricoh

enricoh wrote: »

No, but theres certainly plenty that do get them for a pittance.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/huge-scale-of-immigration-is-making-our-housing-crisis-worse-35498057.html
Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc. This is a remarkable total. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

I'm 'foreign born' but I'm completely Irish

DataDude

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490118

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenbank-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490119

Two identical sized houses, similar plots, same road, same estate agent, put up same day.

Seems a remarkably high premium of €400k for the refurbed one, especially given the C3 BER? The cheaper one is also a better location I think. Am I missing something?

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490118

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/greenbank-stradbrook-road-blackrock-co-dublin/4490119

Two identical sized houses, similar plots, same road, same estate agent, put up same day.

Seems a remarkably high premium of €400k for the refurbed one, especially given the C3 BER? The cheaper one is also a better location I think. Am I missing something?

I don’t know about the price differential but the house needing renovation is right at the junction. That would put me off - noise from cars, trucks and buses starting and stopping, difficulty driving in and out of driveway etc.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

I don’t know about the price differential but the house needing renovation is right at the junction. That would put me off - noise from cars, trucks and buses starting and stopping, difficulty driving in and out of driveway etc.

Maybe that’s it, thanks. I was thinking that maybe you’d be far back enough off the road that it wouldn’t be too bad. Proximity to dart very handy also. Will take a wander down at some point this week to evaluate.