2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Fair point. Have a vague memory that this was the sort of drum Stephen Donnelly was banging way back when he was a Social Democrat, and before he started warning us about the dangers of trampolines.

I remember thinking he seemed like he might make a refreshing change and it was a shame he was not likely to become a minister.

I was wrong about that.

Yep, talk is cheap when you’re not the 1 having to make the decisions... he’d be still banging the same drum and sounding credible if he remained an SD....

Almost as if opinions are easy and running a govt is hard isnt it lads

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

Almost as if opinions are easy and running a govt is hard isnt it lads

Seems easy enough to me - get a brown paper bag and then tell a few people quitly that you have one and soon you'll find it filled, as if by magic. Just make sure you have the world's harshest libel laws first, though.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I agree with you that these are the two areas where the most fat can be cut off, but they're also the two most politically sensitive.

I can't see govt saying "We're going to cut health and housing budgets in aftermath of pandemic and midst of housing crisis." The opposition will have a field day.

I would reckon they will look at the current vacant figures in those new built apartments and will demand a much better deal on any further long term lease agreements signed. Even on the buying side for new builds, I think they will try and get much much better deals.

In relation to health. That budget will be increasing for the next several years as they must deal with the backlog of appointments, operations etc. that have built up over the past 12 months on top of the record or near record waiting lists they existed back in January 2020 IMO

Even with efficiencies etc. there’s no possible savings in health IMO

thefridge2006

Deleted User wrote: »

Almost as if opinions are easy and running a govt is hard isnt it lads

Donnelly is that you??? if so you and your pals are a disgrace

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

I would reckon they will look at the current vacant figures in those new built apartments and will demand a much better deal on any further long term lease agreements signed. Even on the buying side for new builds, I think they will try and get much much better deals.

I wish I shared your optimism!

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

I would reckon they will look at the current vacant figures in those new built apartments and will demand a much better deal on any further long term lease agreements signed. Even on the buying side for new builds, I think they will try and get much much better deals.

In relation to health. That budget will be increasing for the next several years as they must deal with the backlog of appointments, operations etc. that have built up over the past 12 months on top of the record or near record waiting lists they existed back in January 2020 IMO

Even with efficiencies etc. there’s no possible savings in health IMO

If you look at the money raised by the bond issuance and start looking at where it was used at least 50% of it must have gone into health and policing and that's what taxes will need to be raised for to be able to keep paying for it into the future. Most people will automatically blame any tax increase on PUP but if that is a one off during the crisis then it is a lot easier to manage than increasing the health and policing budget for the ongoing future. Add on top of that HAP growing year on year and you have a very toxic situation. In my opinion it is a pity that the PD's no longer exist because you need someone like them to control FF/FG spending.

cnocbui

The NZ government just announced some measures to tackle affordability of property for FTBs. Disallowing the deduction of interest payments is a big gutsy move.

will be extended from five to 10 years, meaning profits from the sale of property within 10 years of buying it could be hit with a tax of up to 39 per cent (actually a persons marginal rate).

The income caps for the Government’s First Home Grants and First Home Loans will also be raised, allowing more potential first home buyers to access Government help with mortgages.

any investor settling on a property after Saturday will not be able to write off their interest costs against the tax on their rental income.

if you acquired a property before March 27 2021, you can still claim interest on pre-existing loans as an expense against your residential property income, but this will be phased out over the next five tax years.

$3.8b put into a Housing Acceleration Fund aimed at enabling thousands of new homes by footing the bill for pipes and new roads to support housing development

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300259389/housing-government-to-double-brightline-test-and-end-interest-writeoff-in-war-on-property-speculation-will-spend-38b-on-new-supply

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

If you look at the money raised by the bond issuance and start looking at where it was used at least 50% of it must have gone into health and policing and that's what taxes will need to be raised for to be able to keep paying for it into the future. Most people will automatically blame any tax increase on PUP but if that is a one off during the crisis then it is a lot easier to manage than increasing the health and policing budget for the ongoing future. Add on top of that HAP growing year on year and you have a very toxic situation. In my opinion it is a pity that the PD's no longer exist because you need someone like them to control FF/FG spending.

True about the PDs.

But, I guess my expected €10k annual tax (based on 5% on €200k value similar to Washington D.C. vacant homes tax) on second homes isn't looking so out-there now?

Not many realise that the taxation of immovable assets (e.g. property, pensions, inheritance taxes etc.) has already been seriously debated over the past few years (here and worldwide) and is now actually near enough debated out and is now mainstream thinking IMO

We're not left with many alternatives IMO

Sweet.Science

Do people expect and influx of properties to come on the market after April 5th ?

Graham

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Do people expect and influx of properties to come on the market after April 5th ?

I'd expect to see a bump in the number of properties and the number of buyers.

fliball123

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Do people expect and influx of properties to come on the market after April 5th ?

Graham wrote: »

I'd expect to see a bump in the number of properties and the number of buyers.

I still dont see the gap closing anyone selling will surely also have to buy so its a zero sum game when things open back up and it comes to the supply/demand dynamic. The only way this will shift is if they get new builds going back and built very quickly.

Balluba

At the BidX residential and commercial property auction last Friday some properties went 25%over the guide price. I’m wondering though if the guide price was too low in the first place?

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

I still dont see the gap closing anyone selling will surely also have to buy so its a zero sum game when things open back up and it comes to the supply/demand dynamic. The only way this will shift is if they get new builds going back and built very quickly.

Whilst people looking to trade up or down will be a zero sum game, the market dynamics will still change. If there are 17000 buying units versus 14000 properties available and then 3000 traders enter, the absolute shortage is still the same but in relative terms the shortage drops (20000 buyers and 17000 properties in this example). No idea how many people buy or sell or trade up in a given year.

The landlords who are looking to offload investment properties will also be able to enter the market as they've been unable to serve notice to tenants on the grounds of sale due to Covid restrictions.

Marius34

Balluba wrote: »

At the BidX residential and commercial property auction last Friday some properties went 25%over the guide price. I’m wondering though if the guide price was too low in the first place?

Bidx1 is an auction. Auction does not really have a guide price, but instead the opening (minimum) price, from where the bidding starts. 25% is not unusual.

Pelezico

The numbers on myhome have now fallen below 12000. I wonder can we get as low as 8000.

DFt and myhome must really be hurting at this stage. Irish Times in particular needs the property porn revenue to fund its excellent pensions.

It is a fantastic time to sell a property.

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Do people expect and influx of properties to come on the market after April 5th ?

Has it really been that hard to view properties? I bought a rural cottage in February and had no problems travelling out west to view a couple of times. My experience was no different to pre-COVID

optogirl

Deleted User wrote: »

Has it really been that hard to view properties? I bought a rural cottage in February and had no problems travelling out west to view a couple of times. My experience was no different to pre-COVID

you cannot view in person at the moment - it's ridiculous. A couple of houses we are interested in have come up. We email the EA. Standard respons 'Due to covid restrictions we are unable to provide viewings' :rolleyes:

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

The numbers on myhome have now fallen below 12000. I wonder can we get as low as 8000.

DFt and myhome must really be hurting at this stage. Irish Times in particular needs the property porn revenue to fund its excellent pensions.

It is a fantastic time to sell a property.

It's unlikely to go below 11,000 at least until December. Simply because of the coming season.

optogirl

optogirl wrote: »

you cannot view in person at the moment - it's ridiculous. A couple of houses we are interested in have come up. We email the EA. Standard respons 'Due to covid restrictions we are unable to provide viewings' :rolleyes:

I was viewing in person with Sherry Fitz (not some cowboy agent)

All COVID secure of course. Masks, not touching anything, sanitiser etc

random_banter

I've noticed a number of former rental properties have gone up for sale. For example, a row of houses in Whately Place, Stillorgan. And others. And also two or three in a row in Rathmines etc. It seems like landlords who bought a few properties in the same place and now they're getting out. You can tell they're long term rental properties, hardly modernised, no furniture, etc.

Seems to be supporting the narrative I've read from posters here about landlords getting out of the game.

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

Whilst people looking to trade up or down will be a zero sum game, the market dynamics will still change. If there are 17000 buying units versus 14000 properties available and then 3000 traders enter, the absolute shortage is still the same but in relative terms the shortage drops (20000 buyers and 17000 properties in this example). No idea how many people buy or sell or trade up in a given year.

The landlords who are looking to offload investment properties will also be able to enter the market as they've been unable to serve notice to tenants on the grounds of sale due to Covid restrictions.

In your first paragraph the gap is still the same relative or absolute and in your second paragraph the tenants who have just been evicted then needs somewhere to live so they either leave the country, rent somewhere else, buy somewhere else or get accommodated by the state so once again a property is available and another property is needed unless the renter is leaving Ireland and would you take that risk currently We have possibly one of the best rates of social welfare benefits when compared globally in the world there to help you out would you be leaving Ireland when the globe is still suffering from Covid. The only real way to fix the current problem is by building or if Props is to be believed get the 100k properties including rooms over the shops into play.

JimmyVik

random_banter wrote: »

I've noticed a number of former rental properties have gone up for sale. For example, a row of houses in Whately Place, Stillorgan. And others. And also two or three in a row in Rathmines etc. It seems like landlords who bought a few properties in the same place and now they're getting out. You can tell they're long term rental properties, hardly modernised, no furniture, etc.

Seems to be supporting the narrative I've read from posters here about landlords getting out of the game.

Also councils and REITS are literally knocking on their doors and asking do they want to sell to them.
A guy from Fingal coco knocked on my friends door (a house, not even up for sale). Introduced himself and asked would he be interested in selling to the council.
He said no. But he saw him going to the next house.
I now someone working in there and I asked what the story was. I thought it might be a con man going around. They said it was legit.

hometruths

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Do people expect and influx of properties to come on the market after April 5th ?

Is there any indication yet on whether or not normal viewings will be permitted again after April 5th. i.e viewing before you bid?

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Is there any indication yet on whether or not normal viewings will be permitted again after April 5th. i.e viewing before you bid?

Are you actually buying I thought you had the opinion that the market is going to fall ???

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Are you actually buying I thought you had the opinion that the market is going to fall ???

I am thinking of selling. Maybe buying as well. Maybe not.

Shelga

I'm currently in a ridiculous bidding situation on an apartment. My head is wrecked. If I bid higher, the sale will be at least €20k over what any other place in the development has sold for in the last decade.

It all comes down to whether things are going to get better, stay the same, or get worse. I have no idea what to do. My anxiety is through the roof. I'm starting to hate this country again.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

In your first paragraph the gap is still the same relative or absolute and in your second paragraph the tenants who have just been evicted then needs somewhere to live so they either leave the country, rent somewhere else, buy somewhere else or get accommodated by the state so once again a property is available and another property is needed unless the renter is leaving Ireland and would you take that risk currently We have possibly one of the best rates of social welfare benefits when compared globally in the world there to help you out would you be leaving Ireland when the globe is still suffering from Covid. The only real way to fix the current problem is by building or if Props is to be believed get the 100k properties including rooms over the shops into play.

The shortage is 3000 in both scenarios. As a percentage of the buying units, 3000/14000 = 21.4% shortage, 3000/17000 = 17.6% shortage.

If you think 20000 units chasing 17000 units is the same market dynamic as 17000 buyers chasing 14000 units you're entitled to your view but I don't believe it to be the same.

Rental market is up in a heap, people have stopped renting and moved home, people have left the country, people have returned to the country, people are not paying rent or accruing arrears, others are unaffected. There will be a lot of dust to settle in Q3 in my view

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

The shortage is 3000 in both scenarios. As a percentage of the buying units, 3000/14000 = 21.4% shortage, 3000/17000 = 17.6% shortage.

If you think 20000 units chasing 17000 units is the same market dynamic as 17000 buyers chasing 14000 units you're entitled to your view but I don't believe it to be the same.

Rental market is up in a heap, people have stopped renting and moved home, people have left the country, people have returned to the country, people are not paying rent or accruing arrears, others are unaffected. There will be a lot of dust to settle in Q3 in my view

It still boils down to this after all the chasing is done and all of the units are allocated there is still a need for 3000 units so anyone trading up or down its a zero sum game in your scenario it just means more selection but also more competition.

Shelga

Shelga wrote: »

I'm currently in a ridiculous bidding situation on an apartment. My head is wrecked. If I bid higher, the sale will be at least €20k over what any other place in the development has sold for in the last decade.

It all comes down to whether things are going to get better, stay the same, or get worse. I have no idea what to do. My anxiety is through the roof. I'm starting to hate this country again.

If this is going to be your home, in which you will build a life, rather than be purely an investment, then IMO you need to change your mindset. It’s potential as your home, as compared to other places you are seeing in the market, is more important than whether it’s €20k above some ‘market’ price. And if its within your borrowing capacity, then €20k will be barely noticeable on your monthly payments.

If it’s something you see yourself flipping in the next few years, then it’s obviously a different calculation

I just paid 25% above asking for a place after a crazy bidding war. But because I want it, and I see a life there, I don’t care what the supposed ‘market’ is at