2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Pelezico

Pelezico wrote: »

Ok....it makes sense to me but everyone is different.

It would really concern me if I overpaid. As I said everyone is different.

And how does it make sense?
One neighbour may have bought their house in 2007, another may have bought in 1997, another may have bought in 2019, do you see where this is going?

MacronvFrugals

McWilliams is divisive on here but interesting nonetheless...


"David McWilliams urges house buyers to stop searching immediately as market is at ‘peak dysfunction’"

The economist also highlighted the fact that house prices are rising while the price of rentals are falling – a key signifier that it is time ‘not to buy’.

‘My take on Ireland right now is that in the last year, the number of properties available to buy has fallen by 40%. Why is this? Because at the start of the pandemic, the Government said ‘no viewing’,’ McWilliams said speaking on his podcast.

‘So you can’t view the house. So, therefore, would-be sellers are saying “if there’s no viewing, I won’t put the house up for sale” – particularly if they want to get a good price and move on.

https://extra.ie/2021/03/23/must-see/david-mcwilliams-urges-house-buyers-to-stop-searching-immediately-as-market-is-at-peak-dysfunction

hometruths

bubblypop wrote: »

And how does it make sense?
One neighbour may have bought their house in 2007, another may have bought in 1997, another may have bought in 2019, do you see where this is going?

There are lots of posters on here who say it doesn’t really matter what you pay for a house, if you can afford and will be happy there for a long time. That’s fair enough.

But relatively recent history shows us that’s lots of people really really do care if they pay big money for a house and It is subsequently worth barely half what they paid for it.

It’s a bit daft to argue with somebody because they’re price sensitive on the largest purchase of their lives. You might not be price sensitive but to suggest other people are silly to be is crazy.

TobyHolmes

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

McWilliams is divisive on here but interesting nonetheless...


"David McWilliams urges house buyers to stop searching immediately as market is at ‘peak dysfunction’"





https://extra.ie/2021/03/23/must-see/david-mcwilliams-urges-house-buyers-to-stop-searching-immediately-as-market-is-at-peak-dysfunction

people though arent thinking with their heads at the moment

its panic buying
its emotional buying
its i am trapped in this place as a result of this pandemic and i need my own house buying
its I have the money so i must buy now, now, now

believe me i understand it


but people have to learn the lessons for themselves

Sierra Oscar

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

McWilliams is divisive on here but interesting nonetheless...


"David McWilliams urges house buyers to stop searching immediately as market is at ‘peak dysfunction’"





https://extra.ie/2021/03/23/must-see/david-mcwilliams-urges-house-buyers-to-stop-searching-immediately-as-market-is-at-peak-dysfunction

All of his points are spot on, but it doesn't change the fact that one of the core reasons we have a dysfunctional housing market with increasing prices is due to a supply crisis. Which is getting worse.

cnocbui

'‘In two or three years, all the construction that was put on the back burner [with the current situation] will be accelerated. So there will be lots more new apartments, lots more new developments.'

He's a twit who's out of touch.

People don't want f'n apartments.

You only live once, so this wait a few 'years' stuff is for the birds.

If you have a limited construction workforce, you won't be accelerating anything.

So long as the mortgage is less than the rent, the falling rent argument is moot.

If you already have your accommodation sorted, it's really easy to advise other people to put their aspirations on hold for half a decade or more. I'm all right jack.

TobyHolmes

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

All of his points are spot on, but it doesn't change the fact that one of the core reasons we have a dysfunctional housing market with increasing prices is due to a supply crisis. Which is getting worse.

yup!

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

McWilliams is divisive on here but interesting nonetheless...


"David McWilliams urges house buyers to stop searching immediately as market is at ‘peak dysfunction’"





https://extra.ie/2021/03/23/must-see/david-mcwilliams-urges-house-buyers-to-stop-searching-immediately-as-market-is-at-peak-dysfunction

yeah its quite easy for someone who probably has a nice big house worth well over a million with no mortgage to tell others dont buy now keep paying that insanely high rent. Yet there is a massive supply problem that is not going to be fixed anytime soon and when the world opens again and we start seeing immigration increasing into Ireland again we will have a need for more housing to be built

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

There are lots of posters on here who say it doesn’t really matter what you pay for a house, if you can afford and will be happy there for a long time. That’s fair enough.

But relatively recent history shows us that’s lots of people really really do care if they pay big money for a house and It is subsequently worth barely half what they paid for it.

It’s a bit daft to argue with somebody because they’re price sensitive on the largest purchase of their lives. You might not be price sensitive but to suggest other people are silly to be is crazy.

no one wants to spend a million on a house if its going to be worth 500k in a years time, i dont think anyone is arguing that, but the point is also well made you cant really worry about what your neighbour paid, depending on when they bought it they could have paid double or 1/5 of what you are paying now.

Cyrus

Back to the houses, cant say im a fan of the extension here

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-woodbine-park-booterstown-dublin/4490549

TobyHolmes

fliball123 wrote: »

yeah its quite easy for someone who probably has a nice big house worth well over a million with no mortgage to tell others dont buy now keep paying that insanely high rent. Yet there is a massive supply problem that is not going to be fixed anytime soon and when the world opens again and we start seeing immigration increasing into Ireland again we will have a need for more housing to be built

there will be mass emigration due to remote work
people certainly wont be coming here

MacronvFrugals

To quote McWilliams from a 2003 episode of Prime Time -

"The Irish housing market is a scam, it is an enormous financial swindle that could potentially confine an entire generation of young Irish workers to years of bad debt"

TobyHolmes

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

To quote McWilliams from a 2003 version of Prime Time -

"The Irish housing market is a scam, it is an enormous financial swindle that could potentially confine an entire generation of young Irish workers to years of bad debt"

in an ideal world we would all just save our money and buy houses for cash
then no need for mortgages
so there is plenty of vested interest in keeping prices high

Sierra Oscar

The likes of McWilliams was predicting a collapse in house prices at the onset of the pandemic. The opposite has happened and there is a good chance prices will continue to climb given the absence of supply. At this rate it will take years before the supply increases to a level necessary for a functioning housing market. I can understand the mentality of people who want to just get on with it and make a purchase.

The only thing that will lead to a serious suppression in prices is a collapse in demand to meet the significant low levels of supply. I wouldn't be betting on that happening. There are still a lot of wealthy couples out there who are both working and looking to purchase, some with serious cash deposits bolstered by the pandemic and not having to spend a bob in well over a year. I'd argue that any suppression in demand as a result of working from home initiatives and so on won't even register on the market given the colossal collapse in supply.

It could take 5 years for supply to recover from the pandemic to reach the levels necessary to sustain a functioning housing market. Waiting the crisis out might seem sensible, but it has to be balanced with potentially 5 years of not owning a home, 5 years of rental payments and 5 years of paying off a mortgage.

I don't blame people for wanting to get their purchase over with. I remember the discussion from many here in 2016 was that we were in an inflated market, that people should wait for supply to increase so that house prices could settle somewhere along the prices that they were achieving in 2013 - 2014. Yet here we are 5 years later with house prices at record highs and a very real prospect that they will remain so for another few years.

It is bleak as **** and the market is clearly dysfunctional. I just wouldn't immediately buy into the thought that dysfunction = collapse in prices. What we have seen in recent times is that it can work both ways, unfortunately.

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

To quote McWilliams from a 2003 episode of Prime Time -

"The Irish housing market is a scam, it is an enormous financial swindle that could potentially confine an entire generation of young Irish workers to years of bad debt"

Just imagine people who listened to that who have instead paid 17 years worth of rent, with no assets to show for it now.

I can't imagine what he would think of really hot markets like Oz and Nz.

cgcsb

Number of properties asking for less than €200k on daft seems to have increased again. Fixer uppers are looking like particularly good value at the moment.

MacronvFrugals

cnocbui wrote: »

Just imagine people who listened to that who have instead paid 17 years worth of rent insted, with no assets to show for it now.

If only the state listened and put a tranquillizer in the Tiger....

fliball123

TobyHolmes wrote: »

there will be mass emigration due to remote work
people certainly wont be coming here

WFH is not here yet remember employees have been forced to work from home it might be here for the next generation but the general consensus is that a blended working model will be the norm going forward.

Are you certain people wont be coming here as I believe covid has affected the globe so the same race and the same hurdles will exist in other countries..So if your leaving Ireland your also leaving one of the most generous welfare rates globally. Also we had an average of about 35k nett immigration into Ireland pre covid from (2015 to 2019) and even had a plus figure for 2020. Now add in that the government have made the whacko decision to cut the time people will be spending in the refuge centers in Ireland from 8 years to 4 months..Its not hard to cop that we are going to see a huge influx of people coming here. We are already attractive for people looking to speak English (as the only native English speaking country in the EU) add in the high end Tech and Pharma jobs But sure no point arguing we will see when Covid is no longer an issue

TobyHolmes

cnocbui wrote: »

Just imagine people who listened to that who have instead paid 17 years worth of rent insted, with no assets to show for it now.

I can't imagine waht he would think of really hot markets like Oz and Nz.

yeah exactly so they will spend the next 30 years paying off a mortgage and eventually actually own the home when they are 60plus.
instead of just saving for 10 years, and owning the house outright
we should all be encouraged to save for a house
not save for a deposit
but its impossible when house prices are so high

but you can buy a house outright in other countries as prices more reasonable

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

Back to the houses, cant say im a fan of the extension here

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-woodbine-park-booterstown-dublin/4490549

Don't hate the extension, don't love it - either way, a house of 320m2 on Woodbine road, newly renovated. That's going closer to €2m than €1.5m surely?

Know this is much more impressive from the outside, but given what it would cost to fix up etc. and it'd still be only 2/3rds the size. Makes the other one look like an absolute steal.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/casa-maria-blackrock-co-dublin/4490164

Yurt2

Cyrus wrote: »

no one wants to spend a million on a house if its going to be worth 500k in a years time, i dont think anyone is arguing that, but the point is also well made you cant really worry about what your neighbour paid, depending on when they bought it they could have paid double or 1/5 of what you are paying now.

A friend of mine has great craic with a passive-aggressive neighbour who bought off-plan at the top of the boom, and the estate was a semi-ghost estate for years up until maybe 2014/15.

She kept on needling him how much he paid for the house as it obviously stuck in her craw. He refused to tell her unless she told him how she paid - she gave the figure and he paused before saying: "you f*cking eejit"

fliball123

TobyHolmes wrote: »

yeah exactly so they will spend the next 30 years paying off a mortgage and eventually actually own the home when they are 60plus.
instead of just saving for 10 years, and owning the house outright
we should all be encouraged to save for a house
not save for a deposit
but its impossible when house prices are so high

but you can buy a house outright in other countries as prices more reasonable

I believe that rent is competing in price with a hell of a lot of mortgages currently, good luck saving for those 10 years paying the high rent rates we are currently seeing,

So what if you can buy a house outright in another country in other countries prices for houses are more expensive and you need more savings and a bigger mortgage but neither of these points have any sway in the Irish property market so its a moot point.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Don't hate the extension, don't love it - either way, a house of 320m2 on Woodbine road, newly renovated. That's going closer to €2m than €1.5m surely?

Know this is much more impressive from the outside, but given what it would cost to fix up etc. and it'd still be only 2/3rds the size. Makes the other one look like an absolute steal.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/casa-maria-blackrock-co-dublin/4490164

Woodlands park is more desirable than woodbine road though.... but i have to say 1.95m for that seems batsh!t

It will be interesting to see what woodbine road goes for, the size is impressive but its very unimaginative and pretty ugly. Someone will buy it.

Or you could buy what is basically being sold as a site in dalkey for 1.5m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-knocknacree-park-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-k8r9/4490615

cnocbui

TobyHolmes wrote: »

yeah exactly so they will spend the next 30 years paying off a mortgage and eventually actually own the home when they are 60plus.
instead of just saving for 10 years, and owning the house outright
we should all be encouraged to save for a house
not save for a deposit
but its impossible when house prices are so high

but you can buy a house outright in other countries as prices more reasonable

I had a 60% deposit for my first house and had the mortgage paid off in about a year with two incomes working on it.

My current house I bought shortly before McBoofhead was saying don't buy. Paid it off some years ago and now I have an asset I can sell to help finance my move to an actullay hot market instead of this slightly warm one.

TobyHolmes

fliball123 wrote: »

I believe that rent is competing in price with a hell of a lot of mortgages currently, good luck saving for those 10 years paying the high rent rates we are currently seeing,

So what if you can buy a house outright in another country in other countries prices for houses are more expensive and you need more savings and a bigger mortgage but neither of these points have any sway in the Irish property market so its a moot point.

you think houses in other countries are more expensive than ireland?
really?
i beg to differ.

my point was as i said we should be encouraged to save for a house not a deposit on a house.
and yes its not easy but its certainly not impossible.
but people are encouraged by society to be in debt so that we stay part of the system.
and whichever way you want to spin in - a mortgage is a debt.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

Woodlands park is more desirable than woodbine road though.... but i have to say 1.95m for that seems batsh!t

It will be interesting to see what woodbine road goes for, the size is impressive but its very unimaginative and pretty ugly. Someone will buy it.

Or you could buy what is basically being sold as a site in dalkey for 1.5m

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-knocknacree-park-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-k8r9/4490615

Ah right, I'm not familiar with the specifics of those locations but was saying to my other half that Woodlands Park must be a serious address to justify that price tag!

If I had money to burn, I'd buy that site in Dalkey - imagine what that's going to look like in a couple years when its done!!

Speaking of money to burn - the previously discussed wreck on Breffni Road didn't take long to sell! https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-neptune-terrace-breffni-road-sandycove-co-dublin/4486805

TobyHolmes

cnocbui wrote: »

I had a 60% deposit for my first house and had the mortgage paid off in about a year with two incomes working on it.

My current house I bought shortly before McBoofhead was saying don't buy. Paid it off some years ago and now I have an asset I can sell to help finance my move to an actullay hot market instead of this slightly warm one.

yes perfect and thats the way to do it!

fliball123

TobyHolmes wrote: »

you think houses in other countries are more expensive than ireland?
really?
i beg to differ.

my point was as i said we should be encouraged to save for a house not a deposit on a house.
and yes its not easy but its certainly not impossible.
but people are encouraged by society to be in debt so that we stay part of the system.
and whichever way you want to spin in - a mortgage is a debt.

People make a decision to get a mortgage for a number of reasons. Such as they no longer want to live with mam and dad, they have a kid on the way and need the space, the job is a 2 hour commute, kids need to be near to schools etc..these factors will always trump the market forces.

Really so Ireland is the most expensive place to buy a house in the world is that what your saying???

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-property-price-growth-lags-international-trends-1.4513727#:~:text=Republic%20ranks%2048th%20out%20off,by%20Turkey%20and%20New%20Zealand&text=Irish%20property%20price%20growth%20lagged,according%20to%20a%20new%20report.


https://www.comparethemarket.com.au/home-contents-insurance/global-cost-of-property/

jill_valentine

fliball123 wrote: »

I believe that rent is competing in price with a hell of a lot of mortgages currently, good luck saving for those 10 years paying the high rent rates we are currently seeing

It's outpacing it comfortably, still. My rent is nearly double what I'd have been paying for a mortgage for some of the apartments I had been working towards before Covidmageddon, and I live in a ****hole. They aren't joking when they call it a trap.

I'm luckier than many, maybe most, in that my parents can help me out deposit wise a bit, but the salary cap is there on the other end too, in case anyone manages to make any headway.

fliball123

jill_valentine wrote: »

It's outpacing it comfortably, still. My rent is nearly double what I'd have been paying for a mortgage for some of the apartments I had been working towards before Covidmageddon, and I live in a ****hole. They aren't joking when they call it a trap.

I feel sorry for anyone in your situation..I hope they can get supply sorted soon but I have absolutely zero confidence in this happening