2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote: »

Its funny how it always happens in whatever forum you are in.... just an observation

of course, im a very political person, we have a refusal to largely accept these political failures, in fact, some of us what to continue extremify these ideologies, which comes across as being almost psychopathic

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

Private debt to income ratio is coming down year on year. It is high but when you take in private savings ratio is also on the increase Ireland and at record levels. We are in a much better phase with regard to indebtedness than it was say 10 years ago.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1074366/household-debt-ratio-ireland/

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/household-savings-at-an-extraordinary-level-1.4440586

To say that we are paying out over 1/3rd of what we pay in taxation on welfare and this has has nothing to do with our indebtedness is just wrong. Everyone feels it on a weekly / monthly basis on their paycheck. To be exposed to losing half of every Euro earned at a rate way lower than the norm with regards to other OCED countries and lower than the AIW is the biggest factor to people working than what you are trying to spin.

jesus, this one again, the majority of property debt is held in the private domain, yes household debt has been reducing, but again, the majority of property debt is still held in the private domain, i.e. in private debt. this means the majority of money used to purchase property is bought with credit, i.e. which comes from private sector financial institutions in the form of credit. it has been these acts that has in fact caused property and land values to rise, as the more credit that is available to buyers, the higher the price.

Hubertj

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I actually think we have the balance right. That seems scandalous to say these days where everyone seems to lean one way or another. I wouldn't like to see the social divides you have in countries like the US, it leads to a really disjointed society. Any further taxation however will disincentivize people from improving themselves.

Just wish they could clean up the money wastage however, such as the Health service, poor planning on social housing, construction cartels, projects like the childrens hospital etc. And remove the land hording from certain parties & vulture funds. The overall ethos is right but the execution is wrong.

Nail on the head

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

of course, im a very political person, we have a refusal to largely accept these political failures, in fact, some of us what to continue extremify these ideologies, which comes across as being almost psychopathic

I think most people would agree that over the years politiacians have failed us with regard to certain policies. The problem is there is no accountability and absolutely no way of stopping certain gravy trains from choochooing down the track once they have sped off. I think the narritive needs be concentrated on politicians as in say we put certain conditions on politicians when they come into office/power. Say they give a spiel like what Sinn Fein are spouting and come up with say a top 10 items they want to improve/implement/increase/decrease or abandon depending on the policy, if their pay and pension were some how effected by how well they did with regards to these 10 items you can bet your hole they will be flat out working on those 10 issues and not ingrained in the whole parish pump crap that goes on in this country. Imagine being able to turn around to Bertie Ahern now and telling him he phucked the country up with things like social partnerships and benchmarking and ballooning both the property bubble and welfare rates and being able to take his pensions and other perks away. We need more whip than carrot for our political classes.

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

I think most people would agree that over the years politiacians have failed us with regard to certain policies. The problem is there is no accountability and absolutely no way of stopping certain gravy trains from choochooing down the track once they have sped off. I think the narritive needs be concentrated on politicians as in say we put certain conditions on politicians when they come into office/power. Say they give a spiel like what Sinn Fein are spouting and come up with say a top 10 items they want to improve/implement/increase/decrease or abandon depending on the policy, if their pay and pension were some how effected by how well they did with regards to these 10 items you can bet your hole they will be flat out working on those 10 issues and not ingrained in the whole parish pump crap that goes on in this country. Imagine being able to turn around to Bertie Ahern now and telling him he phucked the country up with things like social partnerships and benchmarking and ballooning both the property bubble and welfare rates and being able to take his pensions and other perks away. We need more whip than carrot for our political classes.

politics is astonishingly complex, governments actually have limited abilities and power to change things, we ve actually depowered these institutions, particularly in relation to traditional left leaning thinking and ideologies, i suspect if a party such as sf get into government, they ll have little power, if any at all. bertie was only a person, these issues are far greater than a single person, its deeply ideologically based, which is now defunct, we just havent largely accepted this yet

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

politics is astonishingly complex, governments actually have limited abilities and power to change things, we ve actually depowered these institutions, particularly in relation to traditional left leaning thinking and ideologies, i suspect if a party such as sf get into government, they ll have little power, if any at all. bertie was only a person, these issues are far greater than a single person, its deeply ideologically based, which is now defunct, we just havent largely accepted this yet

Capitalism is Dead.... Western way of thinking is all defunct...Get rid of private banks and replace with public banks...Universal credit for all....Government need to keep borrowing till we are all rich..... Sorry just trying to move the thread along a bit......

JimmyVik

Someone PM me when this social drivel is over

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote: »

Capitalism is Dead.... Western way of thinking is all defunct...Get rid of private banks and replace with public banks...Universal credit for all....Government need to keep borrowing till we are all rich..... Sorry just trying to move the thread along a bit......

oh god! capitalism isnt dead, i cant see anything killing it to be honest, it has survived so much, and has been an astonishly powerful creation of mankind, truly transforming our species. trying to move the tread along! you seem to be offering some sort of utopic ideology or something, something similar to socialism, which i think would be incredibly dangerous for all humans. we actually need to move our current utopic ideology along, so call free market libertarianism, and possible move towards another form of capitalism

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh god! capitalism isnt dead, i cant see anything killing it to be honest, it has survived so much, and has been an astonishly powerful creation of mankind, truly transforming our species. trying to move the tread along! you seem to be offering some sort of utopic ideology or something, something similar to socialism, which i think would be incredibly dangerous for all humans. we actually need to move our current utopic ideology along, so call free market libertarianism, and possible move towards another form of capitalism

Sorry was having a brain fart....capitalism is not dead..it is communism is that right...I think it is.....Anyway do you just want to say what is needed to fix
all the issues in the housing market and moves us from a neo classical economy to a MMT economy.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Not all new devs not selling out??
Not all buyers are pulling out sales??
Daft is not showing a slowdown in prices. They went up the last 4 months of last year that had sales data?? I think when we get the full data set for last year prices will have increased slighty YOY. But we have to wait to see.
PPR shows an increase in actual volume as well from September on wards.
Vested interest talk a buoyant game at all stages of a cycle no matter if we are heading into a crash or a boom.

Who is not happy with the questioning. I might not agree with you or other posters on here but I do like the info that you bring and seeing it from a different point of view.

Not all new devs not selling out??

Perhaps the most notable part of the latest Goodbody report on housing is its conclusion that the stock of unsold properties are firmly on the rise. There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out, but Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093.

Not all buyers are pulling out sales?? I said I wasn't sure if that was happening.

Daft is not showing a slowdown in prices. There was a definite slow down pre Covid. The market seems to be enjoying a Covid bounce, but the trend was there.

Who is not happy with the questioning. As a few posters yesterday noted, I am not the only one who thinks that some on here adopt a slightly blinkered, intolerant, and at times aggressive tone towards bearish posts.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

The following is the breakdown of the housing burden for Ireland


The following is the breakdown of the housing burden for the EU


And Finally the Eurovision of housing owners Burden.

To find out why our affordability average is below the EUs that data doesn't tell us much. It's the people who are under 15% that are interesting.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

That is simply untrue the biggest portion of spend for our government and our taxes is social welfare/social protection not servicing debts and if you traverse through the years here from 2011 you will see servicing debts is decreasing and social welfare is increasing

https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/

You'll find the biggest spend on layabouts and workshy folk in that social protection category is the old age pension

thefridge2006

schmittel wrote: »

Not all new devs not selling out??



Not all buyers are pulling out sales?? I said I wasn't sure if that was happening.

Daft is not showing a slowdown in prices. There was a definite slow down pre Covid. The market seems to be enjoying a Covid bounce, but the trend was there.

Who is not happy with the questioning. As a few posters yesterday noted, I am not the only one who thinks that some on here adopt a slightly blinkered, intolerant, and at times aggressive tone towards bearish posts.

to put it mildly....they've literally ran some people off the thread... even the Mods allowed it. Certain folk on here can do what they like and say what you like....depending if you're bullish or bearish unfortunately

Graham

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fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

politics is astonishingly complex, governments actually have limited abilities and power to change things, we ve actually depowered these institutions, particularly in relation to traditional left leaning thinking and ideologies, i suspect if a party such as sf get into government, they ll have little power, if any at all. bertie was only a person, these issues are far greater than a single person, its deeply ideologically based, which is now defunct, we just havent largely accepted this yet

Are you serious the current government have shown in the last year how much power it has. It locked down and opened up the country on command I dont know how you can say we depowered them. Bertie was the head of the government that steered the good ship Ireland inc into decisions like benchmarking, social partnerhip, property bubbles and upping welfare to crazy levels during his tenure and the effects and costs are still being felt today. He had power to tell the unions to f-off. He had the power to not over heat the economy on the way into the bubble, (anyone remember the SSIA for god sake). He also had the power to cut spending like every other government. So to say they dont have power is just wrong.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

To find out why our affordability average is below the EUs that data doesn't tell us much. It's the people who are under 15% that are interesting.

Unfortunately that data is not there...

I have extracted the breakdown by household type
i.e.
This indicator is defined as the percentage of the population living in a household where the total housing costs (net of housing allowances) represent more than 40% of the total disposable household income (net of housing allowances) presented by household type

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

As a few posters yesterday noted, I am not the only one who thinks that some on here adopt a slightly blinkered, intolerant, and at times aggressive tone towards bearish posts.

And of course its complete one way traffic, the whole thread was dominated by one individual of a bearish disposition who misrepresented him or herself at the start and then littered the thread with as much bearish rheoteric no matter how tangential. When called out would then ignore that thread and move on to another.

I suppose thats fine though?

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

to put it mildly....they've literally ran some people off the thread... even the Mods allowed it. Certain folk on here can do what they like and say what you like....depending if you're bullish or bearish unfortunately

jesus wept, the poster was banned for a week, quite correctly, after being warned.

he or she hasnt chosen to come back yet but im sure they will.

they certainly werent the type to be ran off anything.

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

Are you serious the current government have shown in the last year how much power it has. It locked down and opened up the country on command I dont know how you can say we depowered them. Bertie was the head of the government that steered the good ship Ireland inc into decisions like benchmarking, social partnerhip, property bubbles and upping welfare to crazy levels during his tenure and the effects and costs are still being felt today. He had power to tell the unions to f-off. He had the power to not over heat the economy on the way into the bubble, (anyone remember the SSIA for god sake). He also had the power to cut spending like every other government. So to say they dont have power is just wrong.

bertie had a whole ideology behind him, hes not that good yea know

Granolite

Timing belt wrote: »

The following is the breakdown of the housing burden for Ireland


The following is the breakdown of the housing burden for the EU


And Finally the Eurovision of housing owners Burden.

Good data compilation here Timing Belt.


From the data presented in this table would I be correct in deducing Ireland appears to be performing quite well, comparatively speaking with its European neighbours, in terms of affordability of rent and mortgage debt servicing?

Wanderer78

Granolite wrote: »

Good data compilation here Timing Belt.


From the data presented in this table would I be correct in deducing Ireland appears to be performing quite well, comparatively speaking with its European neighbours, in terms of affordability of rent and mortgage debt servicing?

so everything is fine in these sectors?

Timing belt

Granolite wrote: »

Good data compilation here Timing Belt.


From the data presented in this table would I be correct in deducing Ireland appears to be performing quite well, comparatively speaking with its European neighbours, in terms of affordability of rent and mortgage debt servicing?

That is what the data is telling us but we are trying to understand why...

The data comes from a annual survey and is published on the Eurostat website.

I have a feeling that the strict lending rules by the CBI is driving the mortgage data because you can't get a mortgage if you can afford it..... in other EU countries lending standards are more relaxed... But this is only a guess.

The Rent is the one that does not sit right with me but then again when you look at the average rent published by the CSO it is significantly lower than market rates for a variety of reasons.... If they are using this data it might explain it

Granolite

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so everything is fine in these sectors?

Well, I'm just reading the data presented, and assuming the information gathered was subject to due diligence / scrutiny prior to release so as to be a fair and accurate representation of how housing costs compare across the EU. I think its worth further discussion. It was posted about 5 pages back and since then no one has actually discussed it - instead we have had plenty of myopic talk about ethics of neo-liberalism and socialism.

The figures as presented are worth exploring further to establish their credentials and if necessary highlight facts from fiction as to the state of the accommodation and property market.

Wanderer78

Granolite wrote: »

Well, I'm just reading the data presented, and assuming the information gathered was subject to due diligence / scrutiny prior to release so as to be a fair and accurate representation of how housing costs compare across the EU. I think its worth further discussion. It was posted about 5 pages back and since then no one has actually discussed it - instead we have had plenty of myopic talk about ethics of neo-liberalism and socialism.

The figures as presented are worth exploring further to establish their credentials and if necessary highlight facts from fiction as to the state of the accommodation and property market.

...so are we gathering the correct data, and analyzing this data, and does this process reflect our reality?

timmyntc

Timing belt wrote: »

The following is the breakdown of the housing burden for the EU

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but why in the EU28 figures do the categories total more than 100% of the population? Is there significant overlap in these categories or are they supposed to be mutually exclusive?

Granolite

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...so are we gathering the correct data, and analyzing this data, and does this process reflect our reality?

Well that's where the discussion needs to centre on to allow a fair comparison of how we stand versus our European neighbours. Time and effort is better spent either blowing a hole in either the fallacy of the Eurostats figures for Ireland (and by extension the CSO figures), or alternatively confirming the Eurostats report as as reliable and accurate reflection of true rental / housing market conditions across the EU

For example, the figures as tabulated may perhaps underestimate the burden of income allocated to rent and mortgage servicing in the greater Dublin area as CSO will in all likelihood derived its outputs from the national total for example. Does the Dublin versus country property affordability imbalance equally skew the outcome of affordability as presented in the Eurostats figures? Does this country Vs. City property value imbalance not also feed into other EU data inputs or is the imbalance particularly strong here in Ireland?

hometruths

Granolite wrote: »

Good data compilation here Timing Belt.


From the data presented in this table would I be correct in deducing Ireland appears to be performing quite well, comparatively speaking with its European neighbours, in terms of affordability of rent and mortgage debt servicing?

I would say we appear to be performing very well compared to our neighbours.

So well that it does not tally with anecdotal, media, government etc reports. Something does not smell right, but cannot think of any rational explanation.

Timing belt

Granolite wrote: »

Well that's where the discussion needs to centre on to allow a fair comparison of how we stand versus our European neighbours. Time and effort is better spent either blowing a hole in either the fallacy of the Eurostats figures for Ireland (and by extension the CSO figures), or alternatively confirming the Eurostats report as as reliable and accurate reflection of true rental / housing market conditions across the EU

For example, the figures as tabulated may perhaps underestimate the burden of income allocated to rent and mortgage servicing in the greater Dublin area as CSO will in all likelihood derived its outputs from the national total for example. Does the Dublin versus country property affordability imbalance equally skew the outcome of affordability as presented in the Eurostats figures? Does this country Vs. City property value imbalance not also feed into other EU data inputs or is the imbalance particularly strong here in Ireland?

Link to the data https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database

Granolite

Timing belt wrote: »

That is what the data is telling us but we are trying to understand why...

The data comes from a annual survey and is published on the Eurostat website.

I have a feeling that the strict lending rules by the CBI is driving the mortgage data because you can't get a mortgage if you can afford it..... in other EU countries lending standards are more relaxed... But this is only a guess.

The Rent is the one that does not sit right with me but then again when you look at the average rent published by the CSO it is significantly lower than market rates for a variety of reasons.... If they are using this data it might explain it

Do CSO figures for average rents not track the market. I know you say there are a "variety of reasons" for this being the case but does the Eurostats report reference the CSO dataset so that we can determine if the CSO figures deviate much from the considered market rate?

I have to admit it I'm a total "noob" to this forum but I do check in now and then and the figures you posted here from Eurostat really intrigued me, in light of all the talk of non-affordability in the housing and rental market in recent years.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Link to the data https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database

Do you know if Eurostat sources data from CSO? And if so is the CSO data available?