2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Wanderer78

tombliboo83 wrote: »

Very well for McWilliams but rent is killing people right now, so much so that it is far cheaper for many to pay over the odds if your mortgage is 25% cheaper than rent.

mcwilliams argument is sellers are sitting tight, so only sh1te houses are on the market, so buyers are bidding for sh1te houses, he reckons sit tight for another year or two, until building comes back on stream, makes a lot of sense, but i do appreciate its a sh1te situation to be in

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

Thats the most they can stay before you have to go to the RTB.
After that they can stay a couple of years before a landlord can finally get rid of them.
They pay no penalty for this service The landlord does.
If SF have there way, they'll be allowed to stay forever.


Someone buying a house in another thread yesterday cant proceed because the tenants wont move out of the house.

Thats absolutely bonkers so now we have a situation in the country that you cant evict tenants and banks cant repossess houses..and people think there will be a glut of property after covid goes ... I dont think so

K.Hawksworth

Pelezico wrote: »

Big article in Indo today says house prices will increase due to fewer builds and large savings.

Covid is certainly cruel with an adjacent article suggesting that 25% of people are really struggling.

Grim reading, especially this part:

An original estimate for 26,000 housing completions this year has been cut to just 15,000 – around a quarter less than were completed during last year’s lockdowns.
"Even that might be on the optimistic side,” Prof McQuinn said.

These aren't vested interests (like EAs) trying to hype the market either. Looks a certainty now that prices are going to keep rising over the next 1-2 years.

Cuddlesworth

fliball123 wrote: »

Is there some other way (besides covid) of someone staying in a rented property for longer?

Yeah, you don't leave. If and when it gets around to the court case(1+ year), do a sob story, pay a small amount, promise to pay more, the process starts again. Depending on the judge, or judges, and the naviety of the landlord, you can can go years in some cases.

fliball123

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Yeah, you don't leave. If and when it gets around to the court case(1+ year), do a sob story, pay a small amount, promise to pay more, the process starts again. Depending on the judge, or judges, and the naviety of the landlord, you can can go years in some cases.

Just out of curiosity for those on here thinking once covid is gone there seems to be some notion that we will be swimming in properties for sale. Where is this glut of properties going to come from.?

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Thats absolutely bonkers so now we have a situation in the country that you cant evict tenants and banks cant repossess houses..and people think there will be a glut of property after covid goes ... I dont think so

And now you know why landlords are leaving.

There was another thread here s few days ago where the RTB were not allowing the landlord to evict a tenant for being anti-social. The next door neighbor brought the landlord to the RTB and the RTB fined the landlord.

So there we have the RTB on the one hand preventing him evicting in order do do something about the problem. And on the other hand fining him for doing something about them.

And the kicker is. If a tenant stays for two years, wrecks the place and pays no rent. They landlord cant even get the damages or back rent back.

Cyrus

Wanderer78 wrote: »

mcwilliams argument is sellers are sitting tight, so only sh1te houses are on the market, so buyers are bidding for sh1te houses, he reckons sit tight for another year or two, until building comes back on stream, makes a lot of sense, but i do appreciate its a sh1te situation to be in

there are some amazing properties on the market but they are very expensive.

timmyntc

For the people treating housing as an asset rather than a home, there is no immediate need to sell
Like any speculative asset, you aim to ride the growth to the top and sell at the peak.

However once that peak is hit and prices begin to fall again, expect a lot of people to frantically sell and a lot more volume to hit the market.

K.Hawksworth

timmyntc wrote: »

For the people treating housing as an asset rather than a home, there is no immediate need to sell
Like any speculative asset, you aim to ride the growth to the top and sell at the peak.

However once that peak is hit and prices begin to fall again, expect a lot of people to frantically sell and a lot more volume to hit the market.

Are there that many people holding property as a speculative asset, (and not their primary residence) - enough numbers to flood the market and cause any significant impact to prices? I don't think so. A lot of small landlords (< 5 properties) have exited the market en masse over the last 10 years. They can't compete with the tenant favored legislation changes and massive REITs who can offset tax liabilities etc who are in for the long-term (foreign pension fund investments and so on)

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity for those on here thinking once covid is gone there seems to be some notion that we will be swimming in properties for sale. Where is this glut of properties going to come from.?

Regression toward the mean.

timmyntc

K.Hawksworth wrote: »

Are there that many people holding property as a speculative asset, (and not their primary residence) - enough numbers to flood the market and cause any significant impact to prices? I don't think so. A lot of small landlords (< 5 properties) have exited the market en masse over the last 10 years. They can't compete with the tenant favored legislation changes and massive REITs who can offset tax liabilities etc who are in for the long-term (foreign pension fund investments and so on)

If theres any truth to the stories of institutional investors buying up properties and leaving them vacant, you would think they are treating them as speculative assets - as buying apartments and houses en masse only to not rent them out doesnt make much financial sense.

Mic 1972

timmyntc wrote: »

For the people treating housing as an asset rather than a home, there is no immediate need to sell
Like any speculative asset, you aim to ride the growth to the top and sell at the peak.

However once that peak is hit and prices begin to fall again, expect a lot of people to frantically sell and a lot more volume to hit the market.

According to some that peak was hit in 2018

Villa05

K.Hawksworth wrote:

These aren't vested interests (like EAs) trying to hype the market either. Looks a certainty now that prices are going to keep rising over the next 1-2 years.

Just a word of caution

There appears to be a bit of news management over the last couple of weeks

The rehashed Intel jobs announcement was plastered all over the media yesterday. It does seem unusual when the announcement was made and in the news in 2019

Is the state fearful that a post pandemic pick up might be sluggish. Have they information that might suggest this that is not available to others.

Fear and greed drive markets, is the media driving the fear as they did in the last bubble pushing people into a panic to drive up the housing market. Once the panic is kick started it moth balls quickly

The state paying silly money for housing and long term leases is buried in the commercial property sections of the media. This should be national headline news as it has to be paid for by all of us including ftb the state is competing against

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Just a word of caution

There appears to be a bit of news management over the last couple of weeks

The rehashed Intel jobs announcement was plastered all over the media yesterday. It does seem unusual when the announcement was made and in the news in 2019

Is the state fearful that a post pandemic pick up might be sluggish. Have they information that might suggest this that is not available to others.

Fear and greed drive markets, is the media driving the fear as they did in the last bubble pushing people into a panic to drive up the housing market. Once the panic is kick started it moth balls quickly

The state paying silly money for housing and long term leases is buried in the commercial property sections of the media. This should be national headline news as it has to be paid for by all of us including ftb the state is competing against

This is proper conspiracy theory stuff.

The BBC also had a piece on Intel yesterday that also spoke to their expansion in Kildare, do you they're in on it as well?

Hubertj

How do prices on 2nd hand vs new home compare? With reports of significantly reduced supply of new builds due to restrictions that impacts supply. However, there are clearly a lot of people holding their property back from the market for obvious reasons. So when restrictions are lifted etc what will net impact be on supply considering price differential new v 2nd hand etc. Also am I correct in thinking that 2nd hand homes are not eligible for HTB? That would also need to be considered.

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s pretty bad taste on his part. Didn’t he make a balls up with property in the past? Something to do with Detroit?

Any individual giving money to or basing decisions on this puffed-up clown deserves what they get

Any platform giving him attention should be pilloried

Himself, george lee, david mcwilliams, three experts who either just handwave away realities by using vague, idealised cases or ignore amy of their previous writings/witterings that prove disastrous.

We love wafflers who never have to do anything or stand over anything. Shane ross and george lee found out and were found out, people should have been watching closely and considered what that taught us about the value of celebrity columnists in actual practice

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

McWilliams recommending people not to bother buying now, due to these conditions, he's probably right to, brutal time for buyers

If prices are due to increase its funny advice not to buy now

Galwayhurl

Anyone else notice the increase in prices of new builds on Daft over the last 24 hours?

I saw a lot of increases, all of them yesterday. It's almost like it was coordinated. Very strange.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

If prices are due to increase its funny advice not to buy now

Prices will increase if people try to buy now

Ozark707

Galwayhurl wrote: »

Anyone else notice the increase in prices of new builds on Daft over the last 24 hours?

I saw a lot of increases, all of them yesterday. It's almost like it was coordinated. Very strange.

Dublin?

Galwayhurl

Ozark707 wrote: »

Dublin?

Mostly Dundalk and Drogheda. Also Wexford and Limerick.

Villa05

awec wrote:

The BBC also had a piece on Intel yesterday that also spoke to their expansion in Kildare, do you they're in on it as well?

Journalism has got lazy and more copy and paste, you don't see much investigative journalism anymore. It's all press releases regurgitated. I just feel it is suspicious that this is news again 2 years after it was annonced.

Conspiracy theory, this maybe but do you thrust media given recent history
British media is openly labelled as either pro or nay Brexit

Irish media has always been property bubble cheerleading tool

L1011

Galwayhurl wrote: »

Anyone else notice the increase in prices of new builds on Daft over the last 24 hours?

I saw a lot of increases, all of them yesterday. It's almost like it was coordinated. Very strange.

Or people read the last few days of stories about asking prices being exceeded and decided to capitalise, which is far more likely.

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Just a word of caution

There appears to be a bit of news management over the last couple of weeks

The rehashed Intel jobs announcement was plastered all over the media yesterday. It does seem unusual when the announcement was made and in the news in 2019

Is the state fearful that a post pandemic pick up might be sluggish. Have they information that might suggest this that is not available to others.

Fear and greed drive markets, is the media driving the fear as they did in the last bubble pushing people into a panic to drive up the housing market. Once the panic is kick started it moth balls quickly

The state paying silly money for housing and long term leases is buried in the commercial property sections of the media. This should be national headline news as it has to be paid for by all of us including ftb the state is competing against

I think it's a deliberate thing to try and draw attention to the company and the new CEO who seems to fancy he's a superhero. There has been simultaneous chest-thumping in the US as well:

‘Intel is back:’ New CEO’s plan to make chips for other companies excites investors
Published Tue, Mar 23

Intel said it would double down on manufacturing, and invest $20 billion in two new chip factories in Arizona.

So it's just puffery and likely won't result in 1600 'new' jobs, as Jill V. mentioned previously.

cnocbui

Property prices are heading up globally and I think McWilliams is potentially doing people a great disservice with his distinctly questionable advice and assessments.

He sounds like people in early 2017 advising people not to buy bitcoin when it was $2K 'it's too expensive, it's not worth that, it's going to crash, you'll lose it all.'

Tea drinker

Yurt! wrote: »

When you see Eddie Hobbs jumping up and down trying to get in on the act you know it's a spiv feeding ground. A "new social housing market" - how about that for freshly-minted industry patter.

Atrocious deal for the taxpayer, and you can take it that if the shoeshine boy Hobbs trumpeting it, this is now the way of things.

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/mark-keenan-is-social-housing-set-to-become-the-new-cape-verde-37483247.html

All the Direct Provision places are to go, all refugees and economic migrants will get an own door accomadation. They will skip all current social housing lists and be immediately catered for.

I can only see the demand for this rising as government will be pressured by the NGO it (we) pay for to push us to pay for more accommodation... we pay for.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/plan-to-end-direct-provision-by-2024-would-see-asylum-seekers-housed-in-state-accommodation-1.4495389

fago

Hubertj wrote: »

How do prices on 2nd hand vs new home compare? With reports of significantly reduced supply of new builds due to restrictions that impacts supply. However, there are clearly a lot of people holding their property back from the market for obvious reasons. So when restrictions are lifted etc what will net impact be on supply considering price differential new v 2nd hand etc. Also am I correct in thinking that 2nd hand homes are not eligible for HTB? That would also need to be considered.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/newandexistingdwellings/

New 2% YoY, 2nd hand .02%

The pattern has been pretty consistent across the last 5 quarters.

And if we take the anecdotal stories at face value for 2nd hand, that .02 should become 2% or higher in the next 2 Qs.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Journalism has got lazy and more copy and paste, you don't see much investigative journalism anymore. It's all press releases regurgitated. I just feel it is suspicious that this is news again 2 years after it was annonced.

Conspiracy theory, this maybe but do you thrust media given recent history
British media is openly labelled as either pro or nay Brexit

Irish media has always been property bubble cheerleading tool

It’s a conspiracy theory.
Do you trust media reporting on anything?

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

Property prices are heading up globally and I think McWilliams is potentially doing people a great disservice with his distinctly questionable advice and assessments.

He sounds like people in early 2017 advising people not to buy bitcoin when it was $2K 'it's too expensive, it's not worth that, it's going to crash, you'll lose it all.'

Hes probably got some family looking to buy at the moment so using his clout to try and cool the market while they get their house in order

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s a conspiracy theory.
Do you trust media reporting on anything?

whatever about conspiracy theories, in fairness he's got a point that journalism has got lazy. Whether that's by accident or design is another question!