2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

If prices are due to increase its funny advice not to buy now

I believe the advise was to stay out of the market until supply picks up. Covid has choked supply as vendors have been put off due to ban on viewings coupled with reduced supply of new houses
Mc believes now is the best time to get rid of the worst properties, no value, thereby advises buyers to stay out of the market

He didn't even mention the state and reits being predominant purchaser

Hulk Hands

Villa05 wrote: »

I believe the advise was to stay out of the market until supply picks up. Covid has choked supply as vendors have been put off due to ban on viewings coupled with reduced supply of new houses
Mc believes now is the best time to get rid of the worst properties, no value, thereby advises buyers to stay out of the market

I've said this already, there seems to be a serious amount of butthurt over his comments by people who have clearly not listened to what he actually said. With no viewings going on, houses aren't coming on-stream bar forced sells (older houses with elderly deaths). while demand is rising. Wait for this mini period to pass until viewings start and those that do want to sell start selling again, as well as construction starting again on new builds. People have seen a headline and ran with it

I say this as someone who's actively going against his advice, admittedly on a new build we're getting without the seeming 'pandemic premium' tacked on.

K.Hawksworth

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I've said this already, there seems to be a serious amount of butthurt over his comments by people who have clearly not listened to what he actually said. With no viewings going on, houses aren't coming on-stream bar forced sells (older houses with elderly deaths). while demand is rising. Wait for this mini period to pass until viewings start and those that do want to sell start selling again, as well as construction starting again on new builds. People have seen a headline and ran with it

I say this as someone who's actively going against his advice, admittedly on a new build we're getting without the seeming 'pandemic premium' tacked on.

I'm not butthurt about his comments, would just like to see some evidence backing them. Especially the highlighted part. I can see plenty of houses for sale on daft at the moment that are clearly not "older houses" or executor sales. Anecdotally also as someone who is currently selling and buying, I am generally not seeing a larger than usual number of older houses coming to market.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

whatever about conspiracy theories, in fairness he's got a point that journalism has got lazy. Whether that's by accident or design is another question!

Couldn’t agree more. Media in this country has gotten largely lazy. The claims and promises politicians in all parties are allowed to make without proper challenge is laughable. Add in the air time the 0 covidiots get without proper interrogation and it’s embarrassing.

Monsieur Folie

David is right to urge caution but it's nothing people looking to buy right now didn't already know. I think he just wanted to get his speak in on a hot topic and 'cease and desist!' was his soundbite. He didn't provide any further analysis or have anything meaningful to add to the conversation that wasn't anecdotal. I say this as someone with no issue with him and I do enjoy his podcasts.

Personally I am looking to get out of renting, I am sick of it. I have factored in the possibility that I am potentially paying a covid premium if I move in next 6 months but if you're not looking to sell on again in the next few years it shouldn't be a huge concern, so long as the repayments are affordable.

Hopefully they bring back viewings in April to settle things down but it doesn't sound like they are planning to.

fliball123

Monsieur Folie wrote: »

David is right to urge caution but it's nothing people looking to buy right now didn't already know. I think he just wanted to get his speak in on a hot topic and 'cease and desist!' was his soundbite. He didn't provide any further analysis or have anything meaningful to add to the conversation that wasn't anecdotal. I say this as someone with no issue with him and I do enjoy his podcasts.

Personally I am looking to get out of renting, I am sick of it. I have factored in the possibility that I am potentially paying a covid premium if I move in next 6 months but if you're not looking to sell on again in the next few years it shouldn't be a huge concern, so long as the repayments are affordable.

Hopefully they bring back viewings in April to settle things down but it doesn't sound like they are planning to.

This is the thing he flat out told people not to buy..not caution. The guy needs to see other underlining factors that all spill into the irish property market, sure he probably thinks we are still in a bubble like he spouted back in 2017.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

This is the thing he flat out told people not to buy..not caution. The guy needs to see other underlining factors that all spill into the irish property market, sure he probably thinks we are still in a bubble like he spouted back in 2017.

Why does the fact he (or any other person) thinks now is a bad time to buy offend you so much? His comments really do seem to make you quite angry, or butthurt as HulkHands put it.

DataDude

What are peoples thoughts on Redwood in Enniskerry? https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/redwood-development-enniskerry-co-wicklow/1507074

They seem to be struggling to sell and all are going €150k+ below asking. Also on the surface seems like someone who went in early got stung with an identical one next door going for €100k less a couple of months later. Although I think they’re among the nicest new builds I’ve seen, headline starting price of €1.3m seems very steep?

We’ve registered an interest in a similar scale/price development launching next year and I was semi tempted to try buy off plans. But having watched the premium houses in the Greystones Marina and now Redwood all stick and ultimately go well below the headline price, I’m reluctant to do so...But also don’t want to miss out if we do decide we like them!

Always thought a potential benefit of going new development was no negotiation - price is the price and you’re not getting ripped off or getting a steal. Apparently not the case!

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Why does the fact he (or any other person) thinks now is a bad time to buy offend you so much? His comments really do seem to make you quite angry, or butthurt as HulkHands put it.

It doesnt, what offends me is him telling people not to buy when he is either ignoring a plethora of underlining issues that are feeding into the market currently or he lying about them. He has already been caught on a lie in his show when he said we were back in a bubble and tried to make out that a bubble can exist without easy access to cheap credit which is completely false and every bubble in history has had some form of easy access to cheap credit behind it. How can he tell the future? I think it is dangerous for someone who has gotten so much wrong recently to be saying "do not buy now" people will have a lot of other reasons to buy or sell I just hope people who listen to him don't end up like those who listened to him back in 2017 when he was singing we are back in a bubble from the rafters. Anyone who was looking to buy back then will have to pay more for that property in 2021 and would of had to pay for alternative accommodation for the 4 years. By all means he is entitled to his opinion but back it up with fact and stop ignoring fact that counters it.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

It doesnt, what offends me is him telling people not to buy when he is either ignoring a plethora of underlining issues that are feeding into the market currently or he lying about them. He has already been caught on a lie in his show when he said we were back in a bubble and tried to make out that bubble can exist without easy access to cheap credit which completely false and every bubble in history has had some form of easy access to cheap credit behind it. How can he tell the future it I think it is dangerous for someone who has gotten so much wrong recently to be saying "do not buy now" people will have a lot of other reasons to buy or sell I just hope people who listen to him dont end up like those who listened to him back in 2017 when he was singing we are back in a bubble to the rafters. Anyone who was looking to buy back then will have to pay more for that property in 2021 and would of had to pay for alternative accommodation for the 4 years. By all means he is entitled to his opinion but back it up with fact and stop ignoring fact that counters it.

Just because prices have continued to rise does not make his opinion in 2017 wrong. It is a bit disingenuous to say he has been caught lying!

Essentially he is saying don't buy now - we're in a sellers market and supply is at record lows.

It seems obviously correct that we're in a sellers market and supply is at record lows. What are the facts he is ignoring?

JimmyVik

DataDude wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on Redwood in Enniskerry? https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/redwood-development-enniskerry-co-wicklow/1507074

They seem to be struggling to sell and all are going €150k+ below asking. Also on the surface seems like someone who went in early got stung with an identical one next door going for €100k less a couple of months later. Although I think they’re among the nicest new builds I’ve seen, headline starting price of €1.3m seems very steep?

We’ve registered an interest in a similar scale/price development launching next year and I was semi tempted to try buy off plans. But having watched the premium houses in the Greystones Marina and now Redwood all stick and ultimately go well below the headline price, I’m reluctant to do so...But also don’t want to miss out if we do decide we like them!

Always thought a potential benefit of going new development was no negotiation - price is the price and you’re not getting ripped off or getting a steal. Apparently not the case!

Over €1m for a house in an estate.
Let that sink in

Villa05

Monsieur Folie wrote:

David is right to urge caution but it's nothing people looking to buy right now didn't already know. I think he just wanted to get his speak in on a hot topic and 'cease and desist!' was his soundbite. He didn't provide any further analysis or have anything meaningful to add to the conversation that wasn't anecdotal. I say this as someone with no issue with him and I do enjoy his podcasts.

Asuuming everybody knows what's going on with the property market is naieve.

Supply is at record lows
Most new builds are not made available for sale to the general public
Your competing against large entities that either use your money or have a significant competitive advantage in that they pay no tax

I think alot of people are not aware of all these issues. When a market is that stacked against the person's that wish to buy a home. Its best to pause and wait

The content of his podcasts needs to balanced with the target audience and purpose of his podcast which is to make economics relevant and understandable to the everyday person
He achieves that with exceptional guest speakers. This I'm sure you can see as like me you enjoy his podcast. I'm sure there are not too many people out there that looked forward to their mainstream economics class.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on Redwood in Enniskerry? https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/redwood-development-enniskerry-co-wicklow/1507074

They seem to be struggling to sell and all are going €150k+ below asking. Also on the surface seems like someone who went in early got stung with an identical one next door going for €100k less a couple of months later. Although I think they’re among the nicest new builds I’ve seen, headline starting price of €1.3m seems very steep?

We’ve registered an interest in a similar scale/price development launching next year and I was semi tempted to try buy off plans. But having watched the premium houses in the Greystones Marina and now Redwood all stick and ultimately go well below the headline price, I’m reluctant to do so...But also don’t want to miss out if we do decide we like them!

Always thought a potential benefit of going new development was no negotiation - price is the price and you’re not getting ripped off or getting a steal. Apparently not the case!

i have looked at that a few times, looks a fine house with a high spec, plenty of space aswell.

Id personally rather be in greystones although enniskerry is nice, but doesnt have nearly as much going on.

As for new builds, always negotiate, especially at that end of the market

Cyrus

JimmyVik wrote: »

Over €1m for a house in an estate.
Let that sink in

plenty of estates with houses over 1m, some with houses over 2m.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Just because prices have continued to rise does not make his opinion in 2017 wrong. It is a bit disingenuous to say he has been caught lying!

Essentially he is saying don't buy now - we're in a sellers market and supply is at record lows.

It seems obviously correct that we're in a sellers market and supply is at record lows. What are the facts he is ignoring?

what makes his opinion wrong is prices since 2017 have gone up a bit gone back down a bit then gone back up a bit then down a bit..This is not a trajectory a bubble takes. We may now in 2021 be at the beginning of a bubble but from 2017 to the end of 2020 we were not. He was caught lying he lied about the dotcom bubble not being based on easy to access to cheap credit when it was, he was trying to prove that a bubble can exist without this property when history shows it cant.

Well like I say in 2017 he was saying bubble we are in a bubble again trying to persuade people not to buy..How is that working out for anyone who listened to him in 2021?

DataDude

JimmyVik wrote: »

Over €1m for a house in an estate.
Let that sink in

I can find higher than €1m if you want!

I would somewhat agree if it was like Eagle Valley with 100+ houses. But a small enclave of 9 detached houses wouldn’t be enough to put me off.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

plenty of estates with houses over 1m, some with houses over 2m.

I know. Doesnt make it easy to swallow.
I'll say it again.
€1,000,000 + for a house in an estate - give me the shivers.
Any chance I can have one of the social houses in there

Cyrus

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know. Doesnt make it easy to swallow.
I'll say it again.
€1,000,000 + for a house in an estate - give me the shivers.

not sure why to be honest

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Asuuming everybody knows what's going on with the property market is naieve.

Supply is at record lows
Most new builds are not made available for sale to the general public
Your competing against large entities that either use your money or have a significant competitive advantage in that they pay no tax

I think alot of people are not aware of all these issues. When a market is that stacked against the person's that wish to buy a home. Its best to pause and wait

The content of his podcasts needs to balanced with the target audience and purpose of his podcast which is to make economics relevant and understandable to the everyday person
He achieves that with exceptional guest speakers. This I'm sure you can see as like me you enjoy his podcast. I'm sure there are not too many people out there that looked forward to their mainstream economics class.

Can you see any of the above properties changing anytime soon and if so how?

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

i have looked at that a few times, looks a fine house with a high spec, plenty of space aswell.

Id personally rather be in greystones although enniskerry is nice, but doesnt have nearly as much going on.

As for new builds, always negotiate, especially at that end of the market

Yeah I’m also not a massive Enniskerry fan (like town, logistically difficult). The one we’re looking at will have 9 houses also. But there’s 1 (maybe 2) that are clearly considerably more desirable than the other 7. So feels potentially like a game of chicken to try haggle for the best one.

But yes, my observations to date would align with your suggestion. New builds in the €1m+ range are sticky. The ones in Brighton Wood also don’t appear to be flying off the shelf by any means!

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

what makes his opinion wrong is prices since 2017 have gone up a bit gone back down a bit then gone back up a bit then down a bit..This is not a trajectory a bubble takes. We may now in 2021 be at the beginning of a bubble but from 2017 to the end of 2020 we were not. He was caught lying he lied about the dotcom bubble not being based on easy to access to cheap credit when it was, he was trying to prove that a bubble can exist without this property when history shows it cant.

Well like I say in 2017 he was saying bubble we are in a bubble again trying to persuade people not to buy..How is that working out for anyone who listened to him in 2021?

What is it about easy access to cheap credit that makes it the essential ingredient of a bubble? Can you explain why this is so?

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

what makes his opinion wrong is prices since 2017 have gone up a bit gone back down a bit then gone back up a bit then down a bit..This is not a trajectory a bubble takes. We may now in 2021 be at the beginning of a bubble but from 2017 to the end of 2020 we were not. He was caught lying he lied about the dotcom bubble not being based on easy to access to cheap credit when it was, he was trying to prove that a bubble can exist without this property when history shows it cant.

Well like I say in 2017 he was saying bubble we are in a bubble again trying to persuade people not to buy..How is that working out for anyone who listened to him in 2021?

Jan 16 the index stood at 104. Jan 17 the national RPI index was at 113. At Jan 18 it increased to 126.5. Jan 19 it increased 133.1. In Jan 13 it stood at 75.2. Those numbers show strong price growth and yet supply is still incredibly week.

The thing with bubbles is you can only prove they are bubbles after they pop

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Yeah I’m also not a massive Enniskerry fan (like town, logistically difficult). The one we’re looking at will have 9 houses also. But there’s 1 (maybe 2) that are clearly considerably more desirable than the other 7. So feels potentially like a game of chicken to try haggle for the best one.

But yes, my observations to date would align with your suggestion. New builds in the €1m+ range are sticky. The ones in Brighton Wood also don’t appear to be flying off the shelf by any means!

I think Enniskerry is a very pretty little village but it just feels like it is the wrong side of the N11 in my opinion. I think it used to achieve a premium compared to Delgany/Greystones but I suspect those days are over.

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

I think Enniskerry is a very pretty little village but it just feels like it is the wrong side of the N11 in my opinion. I think it used to achieve a premium compared to Delgany/Greystones but I suspect those days are over.

Interesting. I was using Redwood as my barometer for what this other development is worth if we’re to be first in the door. I would have assumed that Enniskerry would have been a fair bit cheaper than Delgany/Greystones when doing the comparison. Very promising if that’s not necessarily the case!

Edit - I know Enniskerry has a higher average sale price but just assumed this was due to the different mix of houses vs Greystones.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

what makes his opinion wrong is prices since 2017 have gone up a bit gone back down a bit then gone back up a bit then down a bit..This is not a trajectory a bubble takes. We may now in 2021 be at the beginning of a bubble but from 2017 to the end of 2020 we were not. He was caught lying he lied about the dotcom bubble not being based on easy to access to cheap credit when it was, he was trying to prove that a bubble can exist without this property when history shows it cant.

Would it be more correct to say that demand has moved further away from from the main cities to commuter regions as affordability thresholds have been reached. Does that trend sound familiar from the last bubble or was that not a bubble either.

Prices in the cities have remaind stable or even increased despite Brexit uncertainty and a global pandemic. Does that imply bubble characteristics or is it normal for houses to increase in these scenarios of heightened risk

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Interesting. I was using Redwood as my barometer for what this other development is worth if we’re to be first in the door. I would have assumed that Enniskerry would have been a fair bit cheaper than Delgany/Greystones when doing the comparison. Very promising if that’s not necessarily the case!

Edit - I know Enniskerry has a higher average sale price but just assumed this was due to the different mix of houses vs Greystones.

I'd agree that is due to different mix of houses.

What I meant is 10/15 years ago Enniskerry would have been more expensive like for like, but I suspect that situation has been reversed.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Can you see any of the above properties changing anytime soon and if so how?

Villa05 wrote:

Supply is at record lows Most new builds are not made available for sale to the general public Your competing against large entities that either use your money or have a significant competitive advantage in that they pay no tax

Assuming these are the properties you refer to

If I were in the market for a home and these were the preconditions in the market The only purchase I would be making would be the longest of barge poles as all of the above are completely unsustainable and the longer they persist the greater the resulting crash

cubatahavana

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know. Doesnt make it easy to swallow.
I'll say it again.
€1,000,000 + for a house in an estate - give me the shivers.
Any chance I can have one of the social houses in there

Less than 11 units doesn't qualify for social

JimmyVik

cubatahavana wrote: »

Less than 11 units doesn't qualify for social

Pity. Someone has missed out

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Interesting. I was using Redwood as my barometer for what this other development is worth if we’re to be first in the door. I would have assumed that Enniskerry would have been a fair bit cheaper than Delgany/Greystones when doing the comparison. Very promising if that’s not necessarily the case!

Is there a new high end development in Delgany/Greystones in the pipeline?