2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123

cnocbui wrote: »

Venture capital may be easy, but it isn't cheap.

If you read all of that section it states that the low interest rates were used to get credit

fliball123

Yurt! wrote: »

Have you taken a look at interest rates lately? The world is awash with cheap money, banks are choking with cash looking for it to find a home.

?? and whats your point?

Yurt2

fliball123 wrote: »

?? and whats your point?

You're denying the possibility a bubble in a period of extended rock bottom interest rates. These are the exact conditions where asset bubbles form. Take a look around you.

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

We discussed this before. I live near it. Couldn’t believe the price they put it up for. Crazy money.

It is insane. You’d want to be small too. Extrapolate the height of the downstairs ceiling from the height of the chairs and dining table. It ain’t high.

Marius34

Yurt! wrote: »

Have you taken a look at interest rates lately? The world is awash with cheap money, banks are choking with cash looking for it to find a home.

Private sector and household are sitting on lots of cash, and fairly low Credits. Which is very different from Credit crisis, with high Credits and fairly low Deposits.

Current high deposits could be a good conditions to form a housing Bubble in the future, if cash will start to move in Property market.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Then why are you arguing with me all I was saying if we are currently in a bubble that access to cheap credit which the government has had is what is fueling it ergo it seems to be one of the properties needed for a bubble historically

You've been banging on that we are not currently in a bubble because there is no cheap and easy credit in the market, look at the CBI income and LTV rules etc.

From these posts it seemed that you had failed to understand the impact of the cheap and easy credit available to the funds/councils etc.

But your posts this evening confirm that you've recognised that now.

So if you now think that there is in fact cheap and easy credit in the market, is it possible that we are currently in a bubble?

Yurt2

Marius34 wrote: »

Private sector and household are sitting on lots of cash, and fairly low Credits. Which is very different from Credit crisis, with high Credits and fairly low Deposits.

Current high deposits could be a good conditions to form a housing Bubble in the future, if cash will start to move in Property market.

We're not talking credit crisis and the central bank restrictions are the finger in the dyke for prices truth be told. The central bank can't control capital flows externally, institutions and pension funds coming to play and pump the market . There's all sorts of people playing in the Irish property market besides Johnny and Mary trade-up or FTBs.

As per the posts a few pages earlier, when Eddie Hobbs is doing a jig trying get investors in on the game, maybe people should wise up a bit.

Marius34

Yurt! wrote: »

We're not talking credit crisis and the central bank restrictions are the finger in the dyke for prices truth be told. The central bank can't control capital flows externally, institutions and pension funds coming to play and pump the market . There's all sorts of people playing in the Irish property market besides Johnny and Mary trade-up or FTBs.

As per the posts a few pages earlier, when Eddie Hobbs is doing a jig trying get investors in on the game, maybe people should wise up a bit.

FTB & STB are still the biggest players. And lets hope individual BTL investors will not enter the game, otherwise it's likely we will be heading to another Bubble.

SmokyMo

Yurt! wrote: »

We're not talking credit crisis and the central bank restrictions are the finger in the dyke for prices truth be told. The central bank can't control capital flows externally, institutions and pension funds coming to play and pump the market . There's all sorts of people playing in the Irish property market besides Johnny and Mary trade-up or FTBs.

As per the posts a few pages earlier, when Eddie Hobbs is doing a jig trying get investors in on the game, maybe people should wise up a bit.

haha, so true. Eddie Hobs would be the ultimate counter indicator. Chap is a financial charlatan.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

FTB & STB are still the biggest players. And lets hope individual BTL investors will not enter the game, otherwise it's likely we will be heading to another Bubble.

If you think the volume of BTL investors fuelled the bubble in 2006, it's worth bearing in mind the following from the BPFI Housing Market Monitor Q4 2020

At the peak of the mortgage activity in 2006, BTL loans accounted for around 20% of total mortgage drawdowns compared to less than 1% in 2020. At the same time, there has been a marked increase in the role of non-household buyers which includes private companies, charitable organisations, and state institutions who now account for 23% of all market transactions, up from 3% in 2010.”

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

If you think the volume of BTL investors fuelled the bubble in 2006, it's worth bearing in mind the following from the BPFI Housing Market Monitor Q4 2020

No, i'm not saying that BTL alone fuelled bubble, it's massive Credits taken by BTL/FTB/STB.
20% might look as not to high in percentage form, but it's most probably higher in volume (28,000 properties/in 2006), then all none-household buyers all added-up together in current year.
And 23% might look high today, but the same number of sales would be below 10% in 2006 competition

fliball123

Yurt! wrote: »

You're denying the possibility a bubble in a period of extended rock bottom interest rates. These are the exact conditions where asset bubbles form. Take a look around you.

If you look I am saying right now we could quite possible be in a bubble I have said it a few times. I said between 2017 and 2020 we were not as the stats would back it up

MacronvFrugals

Does anyone know what percentage of GDP housing accounts for in Ireland?

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

No, i'm not saying that BTL alone fuelled bubble, it's massive Credits taken by BTL/FTB/STB.
20% might look as not to high in percentage form, but it's most probably higher in volume (28,000 properties/in 2006), then all none-household buyers all added-up together in current year.
And 23% might look high today, but the same number of sales would be below 10% in 2006 competition

I guess then the 23% of the significantly lower volume is moving the price more in 2020 than the BTL crowd in 2006.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

You've been banging on that we are not currently in a bubble because there is no cheap and easy credit in the market, look at the CBI income and LTV rules etc.

From these posts it seemed that you had failed to understand the impact of the cheap and easy credit available to the funds/councils etc.

But your posts this evening confirm that you've recognised that now.

So if you now think that there is in fact cheap and easy credit in the market, is it possible that we are currently in a bubble?

Yeah I was of that opinion up till the start of the year as the historical data would of borne that out that we were not in a bubble but recently in the last month or so I think we might be at the start of one. Prices seem to be flying up and with people bidding against the state with their access to credit it might inflate it for some time. But like everything else we will only know in hindsight

Hubertj

Deleted User wrote: »

It is insane. You’d want to be small too. Extrapolate the height of the downstairs ceiling from the height of the chairs and dining table. It ain’t high.

I think the ceilings look normal heigh. The gates are open when I walk past sometimes and it looks standard enough.

MacronvFrugals

Interesting quote from Fintan o Toole in 2009

‘There is no question that almost all of the Irish media
for the last 10–15 years has had a crucial economic stake in a rising property
market. Because property advertising is very lucrative and is a very important
part of what makes the Irish media tick"

This free paper from UCD's Dr Julien Merceile is the number one source on the Irish media's relationship with the property sector


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263725836_The_Role_of_the_Media_in_Sustaining_Ireland's_Housing_Bubble/link/552450130cf2b123c5173a89/download

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting quote from Fintan o Toole in 2009





This free paper from UCD's Dr Julien Merceile is the number one source on the Irish media's relationship with the property sector


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263725836_The_Role_of_the_Media_in_Sustaining_Ireland's_Housing_Bubble/link/552450130cf2b123c5173a89/download

Well with the way the winds have change with regards to newspapers and with advertising I don't think the property porn section that once existed in certain papers would be the boon for them it once was.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah I was of the opinion up till the start of the year as the historical data would of borne that out that we were not in a bubble but recently in the last month or so I think we might be at the start of one. Prices seem to be flying up and with people bidding against the state with their access to credit it might inflate it for some time. But like everything else we will only know in hindsight

Well that clears that up. No argument from me with the above about this year anyway.

I must have misunderstood you, as for some reason I thought you were saying the complete opposite yesterday:

fliball123 wrote: »

Also there is no easy access to credit, ask anyone trying to get a mortgage the hoops you have to jump through are crazy and the central bank rules have keep prices in check. 2005/6 banks were given money out like confetti, 110% mortgages anyone.. The is not the same in 2021

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting quote from Fintan o Toole in 2009





This free paper from UCD's Dr Julien Merceile is the number one source on the Irish media's relationship with the property sector


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263725836_The_Role_of_the_Media_in_Sustaining_Ireland's_Housing_Bubble/link/552450130cf2b123c5173a89/download

Am sure he’s a clever boy and knows his stuff but also 1 of the 0 Covidiots. Imagine a geography teacher telling people how to manage the Irish border! Mad stuff altogether!

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

Am sure he’s a clever boy and knows his stuff but also 1 of the 0 Covidiots. Imagine a geography teacher telling people how to manage the Irish border! Mad stuff altogether!

Almost nobody else did these type of statistical analysis's on this subject, something we should be hugely grateful for!

Although today we have some protections in place the bubble arguments are eerily similar

For example, economic consultant Peter Bacon said that the ‘housing market is
well underpinned by demographics’ (27 August 2003).

Fianna Fail politician Sean Fleming declared that ‘definitely, the house market is going to be very strong in Ireland for the years to come’ because of ‘growing population’ and because ‘incomes are strong’ (12 April 2006).

On the same show, Shane Daly (of real estate company Gunne New Homes) said that ‘people exaggerate often the level of debt that people are getting into’ (12 April 2006).

Timing belt

fliball123 wrote: »

Show me one bubble in history not predicated on easy access to cheap credit?

The impact of low interest rates is the equivalent of cheap credit....on the retail side you have people with extra cash that they have not invested or left in a savings account...on the wholesale side funds have access to cheap source of capital to invest... This also explains why rising property prices is worldwide and not just isolated to Ireland.

Fuzzy_Dunlop

sanfranbest wrote: »

This house has been on the market for a few months, it was originally priced at 1.2 million,
Now it has been relisted at 995k

It's still a horrible house,, no curb appeal,,, dark and bad layout,

Still not worth 995K,,,
You are paying for the address,, not the house,,

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4/3152823

What is going on with that steel beam cantilevering out over the back garden?

Smouse156

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

What is going on with that steel beam cantilevering out over the back garden?

How was that asking 1.2? Or even 995k. It’s a 2-bed. Can buy a 2-bed in Lansdowne Place cheaper, similar size.

Interested Observer

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

What is going on with that steel beam cantilevering out over the back garden?

Bizarre isn't it. It's like they were planning to build bigger at the back and then stopped.

JohnnyChimpo

Interested Observer wrote: »

Bizarre isn't it. It's like they were planning to build bigger at the back and then stopped.

I thought this was just the usual Boardsie begrudgery, but then I took a look at the link and it's truly one of the most GUBU house designs I've ever seen. Mews designs are often weird, and maybe there were issues with historical protection, but still very strange

Tea drinker

Fuzzy_Dunlop wrote: »

What is going on with that steel beam cantilevering out over the back garden?

Well...if ever you get into reconditioning truck engines you can put a hoist on it and use as a gantry.

Hubertj

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

I thought this was just the usual Boardsie begrudgery, but then I took a look at the link and it's truly one of the most GUBU house designs I've ever seen. Mews designs are often weird, and maybe there were issues with historical protection, but still very strange

While those mews aren’t protected structures there are feature walls at the back on the upper leve which have to be preserved. Perhaps that has something to do with it.

lalababa

Apologies if this has been touched on before..but just took a look at bidx1 results for March in the lower price brackets and by my reckoning results are around 1/3 higher than a year ago. E.g. a group of holiday homes in Kerry that went for between 40k and 65k from 2019 on has one sold in March for c.103k.
Banna beach holiday homes.
Houses off the beaten track or well in the countryside that were 35-75k are now 50-100k.

JimmyVik

lalababa wrote: »

Apologies if this has been touched on before..but just took a look at bidx1 results for March in the lower price brackets and by my reckoning results are around 1/3 higher than a year ago. E.g. a group of holiday homes in Kerry that went for between 40k and 65k from 2019 on has one sold in March for c.103k.
Banna beach holiday homes.
Houses off the beaten track or well in the countryside that were 35-75k are now 50-100k.

People are mad for holiday homes these days, brought on by the covid madness
You would have some buyers remorse when Covid is gone and those holiday homes go back to normal prices.