2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Well that clears that up. No argument from me with the above about this year anyway.

I must have misunderstood you, as for some reason I thought you were saying the complete opposite yesterday:

No as you say I think you misunderstood no harm no foul

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

No as you say I think you misunderstood no harm no foul

If you agree that the govt and funds have easy access to cheap credit, presumably you'd agree this credit has been in the market long before 2021?

The funds have been very active since about 2013.

Zenify

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-stay-away-from-the-property-market-it-holds-no-value-1.4520834?mode=amp

Article today about property. I don't have a subscription so anybody care to provide the details?

Hubertj

Zenify wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-stay-away-from-the-property-market-it-holds-no-value-1.4520834?mode=amp

Article today about property. I don't have a subscription so anybody care to provide the details?

I think it is a repeat of what he recently discussed in his podcast. The podcast was discussed in here a few pages back I think. Market is broken, etc.

hometruths

Zenify wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-stay-away-from-the-property-market-it-holds-no-value-1.4520834?mode=amp

Article today about property. I don't have a subscription so anybody care to provide the details?

He's calling for a buyer's strike! Telling 30 somethings to act collectively and refuse to pay current prices.

He makes the same point again about the idea that buyers re panicking to get on the ladder and then happy to pull the ladder up behind them:

The worst thing about this state of affairs is that once you buy a property, you swap sides. When looking for a property, the buyer wants prices to fall, but once the property is purchased, self-interest morphs the new homeowner into a person who wants prices to rise.

However, this game of looting the younger generation to copper-bottom the wealth of the older generation can only go on so long. Eventually, prices go so high that rates of home ownership plummet, as is happening now. At this point, the state that is wedded to the property-finance complex comes up with all sorts of wheezes to keep the intergenerational scam going.

LasersGoPewPew

David predicted a collapse of the property market just when covid hit. Now it has gone the opposite way. It's ok for him to tell people in their 30's to partake in a buyer strike when he's sitting comfortably in a nice house in Dun Laoghaire with probably no mortgage to service, or can easily pay it. Nobody has an answer to the ever-rising price of rent or property values. Some properties have doubled in value in the past 8 years(nice areas of Dublin). We are absolutely desperate to buy and start a family but prices keep rising, we can't get viewings, quality of housing currently available is abysmal.

yagan

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

David predicted a collapse of the property market just when covid hit. Now it has gone the opposite way. It's ok for him to tell people in their 30's to partake in a buyer strike when he's sitting comfortably in a nice house in Dun Laoghaire with probably no mortgage to service, or can easily pay it. Nobody has an answer to the ever-rising price of rent or property values. Some properties have doubled in value in the past 8 years(nice areas of Dublin). We are absolutely desperate to buy and start a family but prices keep rising, we can't get viewings, quality of housing currently available is abysmal.

The last year is not comparable to any year, either in a booming or falling market.

I'd describe it as ossified market.

He did raise an interesting point about volume last being this low as 2006 when the prices were red hot. I remember noting empty estates piling up all around yet venders weren't selling. One high end empty gated estate near where I was living had actually been taken over the bank in 2006 and they were simply hoarding it.

It will be very interesting to see what happens when viewings can start up again.

Marius34

yagan wrote: »

The last year is not comparable to any year, either in a booming or falling market.

I'd describe it as ossified market.

He did raise an interesting point about volume last being this low as 2006 when the prices were red hot. I remember noting empty estates piling up all around yet venders weren't selling. One high end empty gated estate near where I was living had actually been taken over the bank in 2006 and they were simply hoarding it.

It will be very interesting to see what happens when viewings can start up again.

Busy, bidding wars to continue for the rest of the year.

Villa05

LasersGoPewPew wrote:

David predicted a collapse of the property market just when covid hit. Now it has gone the opposite way. It's ok for him to tell people in their 30's to partake in a buyer strike when he's sitting comfortably in a nice house in Dun Laoghaire with probably no mortgage to service, or can easily pay it. Nobody has an answer to the ever-rising price of rent or property values. Some properties have doubled in value in the past 8 years(nice areas of Dublin). We are absolutely desperate to buy and start a family but prices keep rising, we can't get viewings, quality of housing currently available is abysmal.

I don't think he predicted a collapse. He said we are in a bubble and the property market is a scam.continuation of these issues will lead to a crash.
It is refreshing for a property owner to be crying foul to rising prices if we all did the solutions would come much quicker.

The cause and answer to rising prices is obvious and that is government policy

And your views on the quality and state of the market are the very reasons David called for a buyers strike

Hubertj

Can someone please link the report that shows how many / % of properties purchased by consumers vs non consumers (state, funds, etc)?
Think it was linked in last few weeks but am unable to find it.

So the latest report I can find is this but it’s a year old

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2020/non-householdsector/

I presume there is more up to date but I am unable to find it

mcsean2163

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

David predicted a collapse of the property market just when covid hit. Now it has gone the opposite way. It's ok for him to tell people in their 30's to partake in a buyer strike when he's sitting comfortably in a nice house in Dun Laoghaire with probably no mortgage to service, or can easily pay it. Nobody has an answer to the ever-rising price of rent or property values. Some properties have doubled in value in the past 8 years(nice areas of Dublin). We are absolutely desperate to buy and start a family but prices keep rising, we can't get viewings, quality of housing currently available is abysmal.

He's in dalkey and don't forget about the holiday home in Croatia.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

He's in dalkey and don't forget about the holiday home in Croatia.

He isn’t and nor was he

riclad

Its the law of supply and demand.low no of houses being built ,alot of people want to buy a 2 or 3 bed house.
theres very few empty sites left anywhere close to the city centre.
builders are mostly building apartments or offices
there will never be any more houses built in cabra or phibsboro.
Are the rates of ownership falling cos there is simply a tiny amount of houses for sale ,a lack of supply .
there are simply not enough houses being built for the no of gen z potential buyers .
i think most people reach a certain age 25-30 when if they are working
they will try to buy a house or an apartment.
or else they will simply give up
I Think the same thing is happening in america ,
house prices are rising way faster than the salary of the average person
under the age of 30.
he,s an economist whether he owns 2 or 3 propertys is not relevant to
the argument he makes.

Beigepaint

I like how McW drives discussion at least. I’m sure he or at least his researchers read this thread to see the opinions of the entrenched.

I’d really love if he ran with the citizens assembly on housing idea.

The housing market in this country is always on the verge of the next ill-advised quick fix, rather than one painful permanent solution. (A directly elected mayor would help with this too, an idea he also pushes).

It reminds me of Vimes’ Boots:

“The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

{...}

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.”

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

He isn’t and nor was he

Oh must of got that mixed up. His grandmother's from Dalkey?

He talks of his Croatian home here.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/croatia-wins-at-football-loses-in-economics-the-opposite-of-ireland/

He's been talking about stuff for ages. Lately he's been recommending we borrow loads. He also recommended guaranteeing the banks etc. In the GFC.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Oh must of got that mixed up. His grandmother's from Dalkey?

He talks of his Croatian home here.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/croatia-wins-at-football-loses-in-economics-the-opposite-of-ireland/

He's been talking about stuff for ages. Lately he's been recommending we borrow loads. He also recommended guaranteeing the banks etc. In the GFC.

To be fair he wasn’t far away moved from killiney to dun laoghaire .

Villa05

mcsean2163 wrote:

He also recommended guaranteeing the banks etc. In the GFC.

I belive the recommendation was a temporary guarantee to buy time to see how bad they were

Villa05

<SNIP>

yagan

mcsean2163 wrote: »

He's been talking about stuff for ages. Lately he's been recommending we borrow loads. He also recommended guaranteeing the banks etc. In the GFC.

He didn't recommend the blanket guarantee that Lenehen Jr came up with.

What he proffered was a bank shut down and dividing of bad loans from good loans, letting the banks like Anglo sink.

What we got was Lenehen giving the banks a blank cheque to continue as they were (SF voted for it too) but eventually the sate itself was bankrupted two years after.

Many people honestly believed that we could reinflate the bubble with the bank guarantee.

Where I would criticise McWilliams was his later solo run about ditching euro which meant leaving the EU. He never likes being reminded of that.

Shelga

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-65-edenmore-crescent-raheny-dublin-5/3156146

Serious question- why are EAs still listing properties like the above for €275k when they know it’s going to sell for €300k+? I predict that one will sell for about €320k.

Is it to generate interest? If so, is it not just creating more work for them, because they’ll have loads of initial bidders who’ll quickly drop out. I don’t even bother enquiring about places like that anymore, even though I could easily afford the asking price.

Villa05

Shelga wrote:

Serious question- why are EAs still listing properties like the above for €275k when they know it’s going to sell for €300k+? I predict that one will sell for about €320k.

Would I be correct in assuming that is a former council house
Meanwhile the state is paying 3+ times for smaller units.
I suspect they may well be interested in buying this one also.

LasersGoPewPew

Beigepaint wrote: »

I like how McW drives discussion at least. I’m sure he or at least his researchers read this thread to see the opinions of the entrenched.

I’d really love if he ran with the citizens assembly on housing idea.

To be fair I like reading David's opinion pieces as an economist, and I don't begrudge his housing or financial status. Some people loathe him, some like him, but I respect non-extremist people with the guts to give a broad-reaching opinion on an incredibly complex topic. He means well by his advice as he's trying to stir discussion. It's just deeply frustrating for those of us who are so emotionally invested in finding our own little place we can call home.

What if the government prevented REITs from purchasing huge blocks of properties/apartments, or only a percentage of new and existing builds say 30-40% can be purchase by funds with the remainder going to first-time buyers, along with social and affordable housing. This could be mandated via legislation. It would feed the rental market while simultaneously housing those who want to buy. Currently, funds are buying entire developments while private buyers don't even get a chance.

mcsean2163

yagan wrote: »

He didn't recommend the blanket guarantee that Lenehen Jr came up with.

What he proffered was a bank shut down and dividing of bad loans from good loans, letting the banks like Anglo sink.

What we got was Lenehen giving the banks a blank cheque to continue as they were (SF voted for it too) but eventually the sate itself was bankrupted two years after.

Many people honestly believed that we could reinflate the bubble with the bank guarantee.

Where I would criticise McWilliams was his later solo run about ditching euro which meant leaving the EU. He never likes being reminded of that.

He came out later to say his idea was a two year guarantee, i.e. time limited.


Green Party leader and Environment Minister John Gormley roused from his slumber to participate in a cabinet meeting by phone. “Are we going with the David McWilliams option?”, he is reported to have asked. They were.

hTtps://www.thejournal.ie/readme/night-of-the-bank-guarantee-4258897-Sep2018/

I saw a deep hole into which I advised people to climb to shelter in order from the rain. When the rain had stopped, they couldn't get out, it wasn't my fault that the hole was too deep to get out.

yagan

mcsean2163 wrote: »

He came out later to say his idea was a two year guarantee, i.e. time limited.

Got a link?

I remember him distinctly railing against the blanket guarantee as it wasn't the shut down model he proffered on the early 90s Swedish banking crisis.

Fianna Fail went from chest thumping about the cheapest bailout in history to blaming everyone including McWilliams when it blow up on them.

Fianna Fail are so adrift in this internet age where they can easily have their noses rubbed in their previous transgressions. A few months ago Michael Martin had to correct his Dail assertion that there was no bailout.

The truth is there's loads of vested interests happy for our property market to be so broken and they're very happy to keep spinning nonsense.

Villa05

yagan wrote:

I remember him distinctly railing against the blanket guarantee as it wasn't the shut down model he proffered on the early 90s Swedish banking crisis.

It would seem very illogical for a person who was calling a bubble for years prior to 2008 to advise a blanket unconditional guarantee of the financial institutions that were driving that bubble

theflash

Shelga wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-65-edenmore-crescent-raheny-dublin-5/3156146

Serious question- why are EAs still listing properties like the above for €275k when they know it’s going to sell for €300k+? I predict that one will sell for about €320k.

Is it to generate interest? If so, is it not just creating more work for them, because they’ll have loads of initial bidders who’ll quickly drop out. I don’t even bother enquiring about places like that anymore, even though I could easily afford the asking price.

In my opinion too its to generate interest. 320 won't be far of the mark.

Stark

Friend of mine sold a house a couple of years ago and was told to put an asking price that was lower than valuation on it in order to generate interest/bids.

K.Hawksworth

Stark wrote: »

Friend of mine sold a house a couple of years ago and was told to put an asking price that was lower than valuation on it in order to generate interest/bids.

That's it exactly, once someone places a bid on a property they become a little emotionally involved and start imagining their life there which may result in them bidding over what they would be comfortable paying (if up against other bidders). Setting realistic or high asking prices scares those potential buyers off.

virginmediapls

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

Cyrus

virginmediapls wrote: »

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

that has been flagged in these threads for sometime now, its always within the next 18 months mind.

Price drops in the region of 75% are predicted.