2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

gourcuff

virginmediapls wrote: »

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

just cant see it, housing is still in high demand and supply is drying up, unless unemployment goes to 20% and banks shut up shop... and i am certainly not a property market PR guy

givyjoe

virginmediapls wrote: »

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

If Covid didn't manage it 12 months ago when it hit, what will? Unless the banks flood the market with repossessed properties (which they wont), or massive amounts of amounts of new builds come online (which they can't) it won't happen. There's still the same problem, demand is massively outstripping supply.

yagan

gourcuff wrote: »

just cant see it, housing is still in high demand and supply is drying up, unless unemployment goes to 20% and banks shut up shop... and i am certainly not a property market PR guy

Drying up?

We're in a pandemic with a 5km travel restriction nationwide and almost half a million workers on pandemic payments. There is little that's quantifiable at present.

Cyrus

yagan wrote: »

Drying up?

We're in a pandemic with a 5km travel restriction nationwide and almost half a million workers on pandemic payments. There is little that's quantifiable at present.

well they arent exactly throwing up loads of houses given construction is closed.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

If you agree that the govt and funds have easy access to cheap credit, presumably you'd agree this credit has been in the market long before 2021?

The funds have been very active since about 2013.

Well what I would say is the govenment had stopped borrowing in 2018 and 2019 and turned a surplus for 2019 (the rainy day fund) so the deficit had been bridged. Now they are borrowing for covid and this has added another 20 billion on top so I think its this money that will flow into what the govenment spend on and that will include the government buying houses competing with your bog standard Ann and Barry along side renting property from REITS and Vultures and any other private landlord to give to those who cant afford to pay rent I think that may be inflating a bubble now. The money may have been there pre 2021 but property prices up until about September of last year would bear out that there was no bubble as prices jumped up and down and not just up. Its hard to know when your in a bubble its always hindsight when it bursts.

fliball123

Shelga wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-65-edenmore-crescent-raheny-dublin-5/3156146

Serious question- why are EAs still listing properties like the above for €275k when they know it’s going to sell for €300k+? I predict that one will sell for about €320k.

Is it to generate interest? If so, is it not just creating more work for them, because they’ll have loads of initial bidders who’ll quickly drop out. I don’t even bother enquiring about places like that anymore, even though I could easily afford the asking price.

Some EAs go in with a strategy of listing below to drum up interest and a bidding war it also makes them look a lot better if they have achieved 40k over asking instead of 20k

Cyrus

fliball123 wrote: »

Some EAs go in with a strategy of listing below to drum up interest and a bidding war it also makes them look a lot better if they have achieved 40k over asking instead of 20k

i question this to be honest, we did it a few years back selling an apartment and while we eventually got the price we wanted it took an absolute age to sell.

it was more appealing to downsizers given the size and location so thats what we had bidding but they were all super cagey and bidding in 1k increments.

we would have been better just listing at what we wanted rather than telling someone who bid the asking, no we wont sell for that.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

i question this to be honest, we did it a few years back selling an apartment and while we eventually got the price we wanted it took an absolute age to sell.

it was more appealing to downsizers given the size and location so thats what we had bidding but they were all super cagey and bidding in 1k increments.

we would have been better just listing at what we wanted rather than telling someone who bid the asking, no we wont sell for that.

Well its a completely different market out there today I have heard tales from one or two friends of property being up for less than 2 weeks getting 40/50k over the asking and 20/25k over the sellers wanting price and both were cash buyers. I am also looking at the "currently buying or selling" thread on here and it seems to be the most one sided market seen in at least a decade buyers have poor choice and no new housing coming on stream, FTBs are rampantly looking at second hand property meaning they will be losing some of the state aid that they would be entitled to if they bought a brand new house.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

FTBs are rampantly looking at second hand property meaning they will be losing some of the state aid that they would be entitled to if they bought a brand new house.

Forced irrational exuberance

Another box ticked on the presence of factors that help to blow up an asset price bubble

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

Well its a completely different market out there today I have heard tales from one or two friends of property being up for less than 2 weeks getting 40/50k over the asking and 20/25k over the sellers wanting price and both were cash buyers. I am also looking at the "currently buying or selling" thread on here and it seems to be the most one sided market seen in at least a decade buyers have poor choice and no new housing coming on stream, FTBs are rampantly looking at second hand property meaning they will be losing some of the state aid that they would be entitled to if they bought a brand new house.

In Oz, a property in inner Sydney went for $1.4 M over reserve a few days ago.

LasersGoPewPew

virginmediapls wrote: »

The arse is falling out of the property market in Ireland within the next 18 months.

That is all.

The ECB won't allow interest rates to rise given the state of European economies. Employment in 'high' earning sectors like financial services, IT, legal, health, engineering won't be affected. People working in these sectors will continue to support the market. Supply is low, demand is high so a collapse won't happen. It's not like the end of the celtic tiger where there as an oversupply and a credit crunch. People are not getting 100% mortgages like they were in the naughtys.

The_Conductor

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

The ECB won't allow interest rates to rise given the state of European economies. Employment in 'high' earning sectors like financial services, IT, legal, health, engineering won't be affected. People working in these sectors will continue to support the market. Supply is low, demand is high so a collapse won't happen. It's not like the end of the celtic tiger where there as an oversupply and a credit crunch. People are not getting 100% mortgages like they were in the naughtys.

The ECB doesn't give a rats arse about employment- they have one metric they look at- and that is the consumer inflation index. If/when it exceeds 2%- they will raise rates.

Also- whether we like it or not- the ECB dances to Germany's tune- what Germany wants, they pretty much get. At the moment German pensioners are hurting badly from the interest rate regime. This has been highlighted several times (even in Bild last weekend). It beggars belief that that the wishes of German pensioners are not going to feature prominently in what the ECB does or doesn't do- esp. given the federal elections coming up in Germany later this year- and how terrified the CDU are after their recent election failures.

Ireland is a minnow- while we have a voice, we only have a little voice, and our wishes at the table are right at the bottom of the list. Anyone who imagines otherwise is delusional. We are going to be dancing to the tune of the pensioners of Germany- whether we like it, or not.

donnaille

cnocbui wrote: »

In Oz, a property in inner Sydney went for $1.4 M over reserve a few days ago.

Is that +10%, 20%, 50%, 100%? etc.

PropQueries

The minister for rural affairs has stated that 20% of public sector employees will be working remotely by the end of this year. Not 2022, not 2023, this year. And, she also said that that percentage will be increased every year going forward.

She also said: "There are many young people who moved to Dublin because it represented their only prospect of securing work. My message is let’s give those people a choice."

So, that's the first rung on the current Dublin housing market pyramid scheme being gradually removed. That will reverberate on house prices all the way up to the very top very quickly IMO

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/rural-future-plan-relocation-grants-andtax-breaks-to-lure-workersfrom-cities-to-ruraltowns-40249817.html

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Well what I would say is the govenment had stopped borrowing in 2018 and 2019 and turned a surplus for 2019 (the rainy day fund) so the deficit had been bridged. Now they are borrowing for covid and this has added another 20 billion on top so I think its this money that will flow into what the govenment spend on and that will include the government buying houses competing with your bog standard Ann and Barry along side renting property from REITS and Vultures and any other private landlord to give to those who cant afford to pay rent I think that may be inflating a bubble now. The money may have been there pre 2021 but property prices up until about September of last year would bear out that there was no bubble as prices jumped up and down and not just up. Its hard to know when your in a bubble its always hindsight when it bursts.

Exactly. Which is why your certainty that we have not been in a bubble pre 2021 is suspect at best. IMO.

Mad_maxx

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

The ECB won't allow interest rates to rise given the state of European economies. Employment in 'high' earning sectors like financial services, IT, legal, health, engineering won't be affected. People working in these sectors will continue to support the market. Supply is low, demand is high so a collapse won't happen. It's not like the end of the celtic tiger where there as an oversupply and a credit crunch. People are not getting 100% mortgages like they were in the naughtys.

you also dont have a Jean Claude Trichet at the head of the ECB who tightened credit during the 2008 - 2012 recession and even raised rates at one stage

credit is plentiful right now , different situation entirely now in terms of attitude from the central banks

Villa05

LasersGoPewPew wrote:

. Employment in 'high' earning sectors like financial services, IT, legal, health, engineering won't be affected. People working in these sectors will continue to support the market. Supply is low, demand is high so a collapse won't happen. It's not like the end of the celtic tiger.

Most of the people employed in the sectors you mention won't be paying up to 800k for a 2 bed apartment which is what is currently happening for social and affordable.

In theory what is happening is worse than the Celtic tiger, as price for everyone is being set by what the top 15/20% earn. It's akin to a policy that everybody's car must be a shiny new mid range BMW

In the Celtic tiger there were multiple markets at multiple price points and let's face it after the Celtic tiger the vast majority of buyers came out the other side without too much damage

Those that cannot afford to buy are left to the rental market to be fleeced

The state is the biggest bankroller of all this madness and has in its power the necessary ingredients to solve it, but won't and instead makes it worse.

Can you remember what happened the entities that bankrolled the Celtic tiger.
A crash is inevitable, just a matter of when

Mad_maxx

The_Conductor wrote: »

The ECB doesn't give a rats arse about employment- they have one metric they look at- and that is the consumer inflation index. If/when it exceeds 2%- they will raise rates.

Also- whether we like it or not- the ECB dances to Germany's tune- what Germany wants, they pretty much get. At the moment German pensioners are hurting badly from the interest rate regime. This has been highlighted several times (even in Bild last weekend). It beggars belief that that the wishes of German pensioners are not going to feature prominently in what the ECB does or doesn't do- esp. given the federal elections coming up in Germany later this year- and how terrified the CDU are after their recent election failures.

Ireland is a minnow- while we have a voice, we only have a little voice, and our wishes at the table are right at the bottom of the list. Anyone who imagines otherwise is delusional. We are going to be dancing to the tune of the pensioners of Germany- whether we like it, or not.

at a time when the EU project is as shaky as it is , German pensioners and savers are going to have to suck it up , they are not going to drive the bus on this one

there will be no Trichet like moves at the ECB for a long time yet

mandrake04

donnaille wrote: »

Is that +10%, 20%, 50%, 100%? etc.

about +25% it went for $6.9m.


https://www.domain.com.au/news/home-in-sydneys-inner-west-sells-1-4m-above-reserve-on-auction-super-saturday-1039749/

Its will be a knockdown rebuild for sure.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Exactly. Which is why your certainty that we have not been in a bubble pre 2021 is suspect at best. IMO.

Well look at the trajectory of actual selling prices from 2017 to mid 2020 and prices did not balloon up (which is what it should of done had we been in a bubble) they went up and down and up and down so that data in itself is proof we were not in a bubble then.

Mad_maxx

Villa05 wrote: »

Most of the people employed in the sectors you mention won't be paying up to 800k for a 2 bed apartment which is what is currently happening for social and affordable.

In theory what is happening is worse than the Celtic tiger, as price for everyone is being set by what the top 15/20% earn. It's akin to a policy that everybody's car must be a shiny new mid range BMW

In the Celtic tiger there were multiple markets at multiple price points and let's face it after the Celtic tiger the vast majority of buyers came out the other side without too much damage

Those that cannot afford to buy are left to the rental market to be fleeced

The state is the biggest bankroller of all this madness and has in its power the necessary ingredients to solve it, but won't and instead makes it worse.

Can you remember what happened the entities that bankrolled the Celtic tiger.
A crash is inevitable, just a matter of when

there are multiple markets today , outside the Dublin market ( and even particular Dublin micro markets ) , houses are still well below pre 2008 , circa 2006 , houses were crazy prices everywhere

you can still buy a three bed semi in Limerick city for under 300 k and thats in a very good area , most of Co Meath the same and parts of Kildare even

PropQueries

Mad_maxx wrote: »

at a time when the EU project is as shaky as it is , German pensioners and savers are going to have to suck it up , they are not going to drive the bus on this one

there will be no Trichet like moves at the ECB for a long time yet

I think you're mistaking our debt problems as a eurozone wide debt problem. The vast majority of eurozone members have no real debt problem and as a poster said this morning, it's german etc. pensioners that are suffering from this low interest rate environment.

Interest rates really are only going one way (they're less than zero, so they really can only go one way) and the only unknown is when and by how much.

But, it's not going to be more than 2 years away IMO

PropQueries

Mad_maxx wrote: »

there are multiple markets today , outside the Dublin market ( and even particular Dublin micro markets ) , houses are still well below pre 2008 , circa 2006 , houses were crazy prices everywhere

you can still buy a three bed semi in Limerick city for under 300 k and thats is a very good area , most of Co Meath the same and parts of Kildare even

Do you not think €300k is rather expensive for a house on a low population density island off an island off europe? Even a €300k price tag on any home in e.g. Ballsbridge appears expensive to me IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you're mistaking our debt problems as a eurozone wide debt problem. The vast majority of eurozone members have no real debt problem and as a poster said this morning, it's german etc. pensioners that are suffering from this low interest rate environment.

Interest rates really are only going one way (they're less than zero, so they really can only go one way) and the only unknown is when and by how much.

But, it's not going to be more than 2 years away IMO

I cant see them being put up for a few years until Covid is gone and growth has come back into the Eurozone, putting up rates during a period of uncertainty would make the uncertainty more uncertain and as much as Germany or any other country might want this they know that if other countries are struggling that they will feel that pain as well and not one country has been immune from Coivid.

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you're mistaking our debt problems as a eurozone wide debt problem. The vast majority of eurozone members have no real debt problem and as a poster said this morning, it's german etc. pensioners that are suffering from this low interest rate environment.

Interest rates really are only going one way (they're less than zero, so they really can only go one way) and the only unknown is when and by how much.

But, it's not going to be more than 2 years away IMO

Japan has battled low inflation for three decades , growth in the EU ( or most of it bar Germany in terms of large countries ) has been slow for two decades , Brexit means that the EU family needs to unite more and not ignore the needs of countries smaller than Germany

Gemans need to spend more , lack of spending by Germans has long been a problem within the context of the broader EU

Villa05

Mad_maxx wrote:

there are multiple markets today , outside the Dublin market ( and even particular Dublin micro markets ) , houses are still well below pre 2008 , circa 2006 , houses were crazy prices everywhere

So there is no need to pay 800k for a 2 bed social housing unit or lease one for up to 3k+ per month on an inflation linked long term lease.

PropQueries

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Japan has battled low inflation for three decades , growth in the EU ( or most of it bar Germany in terms of large countries ) has been slow for two decades , Brexit means that the EU family needs to unite more and not ignore the needs of countries smaller than Germany

Gemans need to spend more , lack of spending by Germans has long been a problem within the context of the broader EU

Low interest rates don't impact spending when people don't borrow because they're worried about how they will survive in their pensioner years i.e. they actually end up saving more.

It's a bit paradoxical, but current low interest rates signal to the consumer that the economy is still in trouble and consumers actually pull back spending rather then increase it.

A significant rise in interest rates may actually encourage consumer spending IMO

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

Do you not think €300k is rather expensive for a house on a low population density island off an island off europe? Even a €300k price tag on any home in e.g. Ballsbridge appears expensive to me IMO

then you are viewing life as how you would like it to be rather than how it is

we have very strict building regulations in this country , building houses is expensive inherently nowadays no matter what David Mc Williams or SF says etc

there are more property markets today than in 2006 in terms of price variance , in 2006 , houses in the likes of Roscommon or Offaly were about 50% higher than today if not more , with covid and more remote working , lower cost home choices are now opening up , its certainly not the solution to all our problems but might be the one silver lining post covid

Mad_maxx

Villa05 wrote: »

So there is no need to pay 800k for a 2 bed social housing unit or lease one for up to 3k+ per month on an inflation linked long term lease.

those are micro issues and even within the context of institutional money leasing property to local authorities , not at all typical

PropQueries

Mad_maxx wrote: »

then you are viewing life as how you would like it to be rather than how it is

we have very strict building regulations in this country , building houses is expensive inherently nowadays no matter what David Mc Williams or SF says etc

there are more property markets today than in 2006 in terms of price variance , in 2006 , houses in the likes of Roscommon or Offaly were about 50% higher than today if not more , with covid and more remote working , lower cost home choices are now opening up , its certainly not the solution to all our problems but might be the one silver lining post covid

You're right about covid opening up the housing markets outside Dublin.

In relation to looking at it as how I would like it to be. Not really, if I truly thought the housing market was based on sound fundamentals. But, at the moment, I really don't see those fundamentals there. And my only real concern is that if I'm right, it's my home, my income and my pension that they will come looking to help pay for the clean up IMO