2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

K.Hawksworth

After having been working from home every day for the last year, I personally cannot wait to return to my office. May continue 1 or 2 days a week from home, but full-time WFH? I would lose my mind.

PropQueries

Ozark707 wrote: »

Yes where I am working now 2 people are looking at the prospect of moving out. They said 2 days a week is doable for commute and the early indications is that they will be able to do this. Fantastic for those who can and want to avail of it. Will be great for places now outside of Dublin to get more people into them.

And how long will it take them to convince their employer than one day a month would suffice to be in the office?

As I've said before, if someone can WFH 3 days a week, they can WFH 5 days. Many employer's will "test" the whole 2 days in office and 3 days WFH for a few months, but gradually and then very quickly move to full time WFH IMO

The whole 2 days in office and 3 days WFH is basically just to show that they're taken all employees into account for staff morale reasons etc.

Eventually, it will be mostly full time WFH if the employee really can WFH 3 days post-covid IMO

Villa05

In addition
There is an assumption that people are coupling up to buy
Latest trends show coupling up happens much later in life. Would single people people be tempted away from Dublin rents to go for commuter ownership?

Pussyhands

We won't see a mass exodus.

First of all, there's plenty of Dubs. They're not going to be moving from the city to rural Offaly.

I'm from rural Ireland and I'm looking to buy in a city. I prefer the city lifestyle. The services are just so much better. I can go to the airport by bus in 30 minutes even during the middle of the night. Concerts, football games just a short drive/train away.

cnocbui

donnaille wrote: »

Is that +10%, 20%, 50%, 100%? etc.

20% over.

Ush1

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

One of the guys on here was looking at a gaf for a million quid in a new development with plastic windows....

What should the windows be made from?

yagan

TheSheriff wrote: »

It absolutely will, because once again as you have been told, not everyone wants to live in Wexford.

Not every commuter wants to commute, but that's what we ended up with with our profit driven planning regime.

Cyrus

Ush1 wrote: »

What should the windows be made from?

wood, clad with aluminium ideally, if you are paying a premium price.

Ush1

Cyrus wrote: »

wood, clad with aluminium ideally, if you are paying a premium price.

Wood and aluminum are inferior to upvc.

Cyrus

Ush1 wrote: »

Wood and aluminum are inferior to upvc.

No idea if they are or not but they cost more and look better.

Ush1

Cyrus wrote: »

No idea if they are or not but they cost more and look better.

You'd be doing well to tell the difference between an aluminum and upvc window unless you're touching the window.

Getting wooden windows would be madness to me in what is a very damp climate we have, and I honestly don't think they look better.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Low interest rates don't impact spending when people don't borrow because they're worried about how they will survive in their pensioner years i.e. they actually end up saving more.

It's a bit paradoxical, but current low interest rates signal to the consumer that the economy is still in trouble and consumers actually pull back spending rather then increase it.

A significant rise in interest rates may actually encourage consumer spending IMO

Based on your paradoxical opinion we shouldn’t see inflation as customers pull back spending and save instead as this all leads to a low velocity of money.

Cyrus

Ush1 wrote: »

You'd be doing well to tell the difference between an aluminum and upvc window unless you're touching the window.

Getting wooden windows would be madness to me in what is a very damp climate we have, and I honestly don't think they look better.

each to their own but i know what looks better to me,

i have yet to see a decent sash window that wasnt made from wood.

The_Conductor

PropQueries wrote: »

The minister for rural affairs has stated that 20% of public sector employees will be working remotely by the end of this year. Not 2022, not 2023, this year. And, she also said that that percentage will be increased every year going forward.

Love to know who these people are.

There are 37,500 civil servants in Ireland- of whom 22.280 are based outside of Dublin (aka a majority). Just over 15k in Dublin.

Of the other 271,000 public sector employees - 106,000 are employed in the HSE in various roles at various locations around the country- or in Dublin. They're not easy to move around the place.

165k other public sector employees. Of these 98k are teachers/principals in schools- bringing us down to 67k

14,000 Gardai - now we're down to 53,000

10,000 in Army/Naval Services etc - now we're down to 43,000

27,000 Local Authority employees - we're down to 16,000

13,000 in Non-Commercial State Bodies - down to 3,000


20% of 300,000 odd is 60,000 employees- which would be the entirety of the civil service and all local authority employees- of whom over 40,000 aren't based in Dublin to begin with.

A 20% WFH does not equate with large numbers of new people moving out of Dublin at all- in fact, I'd suggest it may have negligible to no effect whatsoever on the numbers of public sector employees in Dublin.

Source for the above here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_service_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Cyrus

The_Conductor wrote: »

Love to know who these people are.

There are 37,500 civil servants in Ireland- of whom 22.280 are based outside of Dublin (aka a majority). Just over 15k in Dublin.

Of the other 271,000 public sector employees - 106,000 are employed in the HSE in various roles at various locations around the country- or in Dublin. They're not easy to move around the place.

165k other public sector employees. Of these 98k are teachers/principals in schools- bringing us down to 67k

14,000 Gardai - now we're down to 53,000

10,000 in Army/Naval Services etc - now we're down to 43,000

27,000 Local Authority employees - we're down to 16,000

13,000 in Non-Commercial State Bodies - down to 3,000


20% of 300,000 odd is 60,000 employees- which would be the entirety of the civil service and all local authority employees- of whom over 40,000 aren't based in Dublin to begin with.

A 20% WFH does not equate with large numbers of new people moving out of Dublin at all- in fact, I'd suggest it may have negligible to no effect whatsoever on the numbers of public sector employees in Dublin.

don't be discrediting soundbite headlines with your reasoned analysis

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

In addition
There is an assumption that people are coupling up to buy
Latest trends show coupling up happens much later in life. Would single people people be tempted away from Dublin rents to go for commuter ownership?

There’s a lot to consider there - where to possibly commute from, where are friends and family based, degree of flexibility in both jobs. It would be nice for many people.

awec

The_Conductor wrote: »

Love to know who these people are.

There are 37,500 civil servants in Ireland- of whom 22.280 are based outside of Dublin (aka a majority). Just over 15k in Dublin.

Of the other 271,000 public sector employees - 106,000 are employed in the HSE in various roles at various locations around the country- or in Dublin. They're not easy to move around the place.

165k other public sector employees. Of these 98k are teachers/principals in schools- bringing us down to 67k

14,000 Gardai - now we're down to 53,000

10,000 in Army/Naval Services etc - now we're down to 43,000

27,000 Local Authority employees - we're down to 16,000

13,000 in Non-Commercial State Bodies - down to 3,000


20% of 300,000 odd is 60,000 employees- which would be the entirety of the civil service and all local authority employees- of whom over 40,000 aren't based in Dublin to begin with.

A 20% WFH does not equate with large numbers of new people moving out of Dublin at all- in fact, I'd suggest it may have negligible to no effect whatsoever on the numbers of public sector employees in Dublin.

Source for the above here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_service_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

The minister said 20% working remotely. They can work remotely from wherever they currently are based.

Cyrus

awec wrote: »

The minister said 20% working remotely. They can work remotely from wherever they currently are based.

its more likely they will flee dublin in their droves sending prices tumbling 75% is it not.

Pussyhands

The_Conductor wrote: »

Love to know who these people are.

There are 37,500 civil servants in Ireland- of whom 22.280 are based outside of Dublin (aka a majority). Just over 15k in Dublin.

Of the other 271,000 public sector employees - 106,000 are employed in the HSE in various roles at various locations around the country- or in Dublin. They're not easy to move around the place.

165k other public sector employees. Of these 98k are teachers/principals in schools- bringing us down to 67k

14,000 Gardai - now we're down to 53,000

10,000 in Army/Naval Services etc - now we're down to 43,000

27,000 Local Authority employees - we're down to 16,000

13,000 in Non-Commercial State Bodies - down to 3,000


20% of 300,000 odd is 60,000 employees- which would be the entirety of the civil service and all local authority employees- of whom over 40,000 aren't based in Dublin to begin with.

A 20% WFH does not equate with large numbers of new people moving out of Dublin at all- in fact, I'd suggest it may have negligible to no effect whatsoever on the numbers of public sector employees in Dublin.

Source for the above here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_service_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

I don't really see the impact this will have at all.

If you're in the civil service in Dublin, you're not gonna move to Mayo or Carlow.

There are public servants living in rural Ireland today. Them working at a hub isn't going to restore life to a town. So they may buy lunch or something (at most), but that's hardly revolutionary?



I'd love to see an example of someone they think this would apply to.

Back in my hometown in rural setting, I know civil servants. They may commute an hour or whatever to work, but they'd be getting fuel in the local filling station, buying snacks and drinks, for their journey.

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

The minister said 20% working remotely. They can work remotely from wherever they currently are based.

The suggestion was that as a scheme it was a manner of freeing up housing in Dublin while simultaneously being a good step towards rebooting the economies of many remote towns in Ireland. My point- is that it means no such thing.

awec

The_Conductor wrote: »

The suggestion was that as a scheme it was a manner of freeing up housing in Dublin while simultaneously being a good step towards rebooting the economies of many remote towns in Ireland. My point- is that it means no such thing.

The Minister for Rural Affairs is playing to her audience a bit.

jill_valentine

Hubertj wrote: »

There’s a lot to consider there - where to possibly commute from, where are friends and family based, degree of flexibility in both jobs. It would be nice for many people.

I think the horrible rental market here could have laid the groundwork for some surprising effects on whatever the new normal will be in that regard.

Even before Covid most of my friends live far enough away from each other (ie where they can afford) that meeting up is already something that has to be arranged in advance, and I was working with people who commuted in from Drogheda. I think we could find ourselves surprised at how many Millenials have already been living without the "perks" working in Dublin is meant to offer.

We could find too that, post lockdown, people find the idea of their own space much more valuable than amenities they managed to live without. Wowburger is grand, but is it worth housesharing with three other people forever in Carrickmines if you could work for the exact same company in Navan, in a room you chose the paint for?

I don't expect a mass exodus, but I do expect a slowly growing stream once things start moving and people take stock of the recent past and the future risk of similar events. I would sooner live in the Ailwee Caves than spend the next pandemic in the living situation I spent this one.

DataDude

Pussyhands wrote: »

I don't really see the impact this will have at all.

If you're in the civil service in Dublin, you're not gonna move to Mayo or Carlow.
.

Out of curiosity, why do you think this? I'd have thought that quality of life for a young family would be 10x higher somewhere like Waterford vs Dublin if you don't own your own home and your household income is sub €100k (maybe even higher).

I do wonder of all the people adamant that nobody would ever want to leave Dublin, how many are paying 50%+ of their after tax income on rent with zero prospect of ever owning a home. I suspect this might change your perspective.

jill_valentine

DataDude wrote: »

Out of curiosity, why do you think this? I'd have thought that quality of life for a young family would be 10x higher somewhere like Waterford vs Dublin if you don't own your own home and your household income is sub €100k (maybe even higher).

I do wonder of all the people adamant that nobody would ever want to leave Dublin, how many are paying 50%+ of their after tax income on rent with zero prospect of ever owning a home. I suspect this might change your perspective.

Yeah. I think this thread is consistently inclined to think of this stuff in terms of "Buying in Dublin vs Buying Elsewhere" when imho many, if not most would be FTBs are more likely to be pondering this question, as you say, "Renting in Dublin vs Buying Elsewhere."

The Spider

givyjoe wrote: »

The vast majority of people will not be fully remote. Id wager 1 day office based is also highly improbably because well, what benefit does that give. Hubs as you say are also not likely for the vast majority of businesses, for obvious reasons, namely cost and scale. What matters for the property market is decisions the majority are going to make. Anyway, the point im making is essentially the same thing, a lot of people initially foolishly made long terms decisions without knowing what long term working arrangements they were going to have. I don't think we'll see a mass exodus, even with 2/3 days WFH.

Completely disagree with this, vast majority in IT and similar office setups will have remote working, big multinationals have already come out and said remote is the way forward and thats who the indigenous companies are competing with.

The very least will be a blended approach 1-2 days on the office and the rest remote, if a company especially in IT wants staff in full time, prepare to lose the talent, most IT staff already have one foot out the door at the best of times, most leave after two to three years if they havent been promoted.

Only option really is if ypu want your staff in the office full time to pay more than twitter and give better benefits, how likely is that?

I think a bigger issue is for all the smaller companies down the country who hae decent teams, now losung staff to the multinational as they can't compete on salary or benefits.

hometruths

The_Conductor wrote: »

The suggestion was that as a scheme it was a manner of freeing up housing in Dublin while simultaneously being a good step towards rebooting the economies of many remote towns in Ireland. My point- is that it means no such thing.

I don't understand what the problem with the logic here is? This makes sense to me.

DataDude

jill_valentine wrote: »

Yeah. I think this thread is consistently inclined to think of this stuff in terms of "Buying in Dublin vs Buying Elsewhere" when imho many, if not most would be FTBs are more likely to be pondering this question, as you say, "Renting in Dublin vs Buying Elsewhere."

Yep! We have TDs on €100k looking for pay increases due to lack of housing options. It really doesn't seem farfetched to me to think those on lower incomes might consider a move to a less expensive area.

"A TD on a €100,000 a year cannot afford to buy a modest three-bedroomed home in many parts of Dublin, the Fine Gael parliamentary party was told last week."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/oh-councillors-will-get-their-50pc-pay-hike-all-right-40167207.html

I think the pay of civil servants is greatly exaggerated. The job security and pensions are fantastic, but it's not like 30 somethings entering it today would have their pick of family homes in Dublin. Personally I'd be gone like a shot to any of Galway/Waterford/Wexford if in their shoes and given the choice!

Samuel T. Cogley

DataDude wrote: »

Out of curiosity, why do you think this? I'd have thought that quality of life for a young family would be 10x higher somewhere like Waterford vs Dublin if you don't own your own home and your household income is sub €100k (maybe even higher).

I do wonder of all the people adamant that nobody would ever want to leave Dublin, how many are paying 50%+ of their after tax income on rent with zero prospect of ever owning a home. I suspect this might change your perspective.

Problem is that the lower paid workers are the ones who can't feasibly WFH on a regular basis. They're relied on in offices too much to do anything from meet with visitors to photocopying and binding and answering letters. This will be a perk for middle and upper management with the odd person at CO and EO level given it to be family friendly.

Yes work practices could, and should, be changed but that will go at a glacial pace.

It also shouldn't be underestimated how many are commuting from as far away as Wexford to Civil Service jobs in Dublin already. Their move to a WFH model does nothing the free up housing in Dublin.

Browney7

The Spider wrote: »

Completely disagree with this, vast majority in IT and similar office setups will have remote working, big multinationals have already come out and said remote is the way forward and thats who the indigenous companies are competing with.

The very least will be a blended approach 1-2 days on the office and the rest remote, if a company especially in IT wants staff in full time, prepare to lose the talent, most IT staff already have one foot out the door at the best of times, most leave after two to three years if they havent been promoted.

Only option really is if ypu want your staff in the office full time to pay more than twitter and give better benefits, how likely is that?

I think a bigger issue is for all the smaller companies down the country who hae decent teams, now losung staff to the multinational as they can't compete on salary or benefits.

In high demand sectors where employees can be fussy and pick and choose employers I think employers will find it difficult to use the stick of "ye're in the office full time lads just because we say so".

I feel like employers will have to demonstrate the value of the office and what having an office presence gives them - and there is a lot of value in the office.

But a hybrid model of 50:50 or 75:25 office and home will need some thought - there's no point bringing people into an office to go on zoom calls. Collaboration and team days will be the order of the day for sure but are you better off having those as off sites and ditching the office altogether?

There's a demand from people I know to get back in the office but how much of this is cabin fever from being at home versus versus lockdown cabin fever because the country is closed. Work from home in an open country will be far different to the WFH we have now.

As regards property, I find it difficult to see people making life decisions in such an uncertain climate and decamping en masse - pandemic has likely fast forwarded decisions by a few years but people decamping to belmullet with no connection to the and working in Google full time remote just seems off to me.

cnocbui

jill_valentine wrote: »

Nobody's moving anywhere atm, so I'm not sure that's a useful reflection.

I'd love to stay living in Dublin, just can't afford to. None of the amenities are worth having to deal with landlords forever. I'd rather own a pallet floating in the middle of the Atlantic than carry on handing this much money to somebody every year for the privilege of a mouldy shoebox here.

DataDude wrote: »

Yep! We have TDs on €100k looking for pay increases due to lack of housing options. It really doesn't seem farfetched to me to think those on lower incomes might consider a move to a less expensive area.

"A TD on a €100,000 a year cannot afford to buy a modest three-bedroomed home in many parts of Dublin, the Fine Gael parliamentary party was told last week."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/oh-councillors-will-get-their-50pc-pay-hike-all-right-40167207.html

I think the pay of civil servants is greatly exaggerated. The job security and pensions are fantastic, but it's not like 30 somethings entering it today would have their pick of family homes in Dublin. Personally I'd be gone like a shot to any of Galway/Waterford/Wexford if in their shoes and given the choice!

Well This a remarkable turn around in attitude. I suggested earlier that people who can't afford to buy in Dublin should perhaps look outside of Dublin where housing is cheaper and i had my head bitten off. Now it's a great and sensible idea. :rolleyes:



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