2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

Love to know who these people are.

There are 37,500 civil servants in Ireland- of whom 22.280 are based outside of Dublin (aka a majority). Just over 15k in Dublin.

Of the other 271,000 public sector employees - 106,000 are employed in the HSE in various roles at various locations around the country- or in Dublin. They're not easy to move around the place.

165k other public sector employees. Of these 98k are teachers/principals in schools- bringing us down to 67k

14,000 Gardai - now we're down to 53,000

10,000 in Army/Naval Services etc - now we're down to 43,000

27,000 Local Authority employees - we're down to 16,000

13,000 in Non-Commercial State Bodies - down to 3,000


20% of 300,000 odd is 60,000 employees- which would be the entirety of the civil service and all local authority employees- of whom over 40,000 aren't based in Dublin to begin with.

A 20% WFH does not equate with large numbers of new people moving out of Dublin at all- in fact, I'd suggest it may have negligible to no effect whatsoever on the numbers of public sector employees in Dublin.

Source for the above here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_service_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Actually very good points there. But look at it another way.

If only a total of 8,000 workers between all the civil service and private companies embraced WFH to the fullest and left Dublin, that’s the equivalent of Google shutting up shop tomorrow.

What would be the impact on the Dublin property market if Google shut down tomorrow?

Samuel T. Cogley

PropQueries wrote: »

What would be the impact on the Dublin property market if Google shut down tomorrow?

Probably about the same as AirBnB being 'banned'. i.e. a drop, albeit a fairly large one, in the ocean.

DataDude

cnocbui wrote: »

Well This a remarkable turn around in attitude. I suggested earlier that people who can't afford to buy in Dublin should perhaps look outside of Dublin where housing is cheaper and i had my head bitten off. Now it's a great and sensible idea. :rolleyes:



https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116673947&postcount=6470

Just to clarify - it's a great idea and sensible based on the reality on which we currently live. I don't think it's desirable that people are forced to do so, but that's the hand you've been dealt so you do what's best for your family.

I can advise my partner to not walk the streets alone at night and yet still advocate for a world where she theoretically could if she wanted to without being a hypocrite.

PropQueries

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Probably about the same as AirBnB being 'banned'. i.e. a drop, albeit a fairly large one, in the ocean.

The AirBnB properties didn’t re-enter the market because the state either bought or rented many of them.

Basically Dublin City may be just one big corporation estate in a few years.

Another reason for people to start embracing WFH outside the capital IMO

Villa05

The_Conductor wrote:

The suggestion was that as a scheme it was a manner of freeing up housing in Dublin while simultaneously being a good step towards rebooting the economies of many remote towns in Ireland. My point- is that it means no such thing.

It's an excuse to give grants to a much favoured sector in the past
The publicans

I'd really question making the pub a workplace in Ireland

There's so many things that could go wrong

cnocbui

DataDude wrote: »

Yep! We have TDs on €100k looking for pay increases due to lack of housing options. It really doesn't seem farfetched to me to think those on lower incomes might consider a move to a less expensive area.

"A TD on a €100,000 a year cannot afford to buy a modest three-bedroomed home in many parts of Dublin, the Fine Gael parliamentary party was told last week."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/oh-councillors-will-get-their-50pc-pay-hike-all-right-40167207.html

I think the pay of civil servants is greatly exaggerated. The job security and pensions are fantastic, but it's not like 30 somethings entering it today would have their pick of family homes in Dublin. Personally I'd be gone like a shot to any of Galway/Waterford/Wexford if in their shoes and given the choice!

I don't think the pay of civil servants is exagerated. Fortunately we don't have as many proportionate to private sector workers as other places. Norway is bonkers.

Samuel T. Cogley

That looks like Public Sector rather than Civil Service. The point being there are doctors, professors etc. in the above. You'd need to be a AP on at least LS1 to be earning that. There is not an insignificant number of them but it's tiny compared to the number of COs and EOs earning less than 50K.

DataDude

cnocbui wrote: »

I don't think the pay of civil servants is exagerated. Fortunately we don't have as many proportionate to private sector workers as other places. Norway is bonkers.

I should have been more specific. I whole heartedly agree with your sentiments that the Public Sector is overcompensated, were I given dictatorial powers tomorrow I'd slash their Defined Benefit pension schemes in a heartbeat and relish the interaction with their unions. I'm by no means defending the value for money they provide as a whole.

My point in that post was more to counteract the notion that the public sector cohort of workers can easily afford to live in Dublin and therefore why would they leave. I think the average public sector wage is roughly €50k. It's good money, better than the private sector, but it doesn't go a long way in the Dublin housing market.

The Spider

Browney7 wrote: »

In high demand sectors where employees can be fussy and pick and choose employers I think employers will find it difficult to use the stick of "ye're in the office full time lads just because we say so".

I feel like employers will have to demonstrate the value of the office and what having an office presence gives them - and there is a lot of value in the office.

But a hybrid model of 50:50 or 75:25 office and home will need some thought - there's no point bringing people into an office to go on zoom calls. Collaboration and team days will be the order of the day for sure but are you better off having those as off sites and ditching the office altogether?

There's a demand from people I know to get back in the office but how much of this is cabin fever from being at home versus versus lockdown cabin fever because the country is closed. Work from home in an open country will be far different to the WFH we have now.

As regards property, I find it difficult to see people making life decisions in such an uncertain climate and decamping en masse - pandemic has likely fast forwarded decisions by a few years but people decamping to belmullet with no connection to the and working in Google full time remote just seems off to me.

I agree with a lot of your points above, I do think cabin fever has set in and people looking for the office are looking for human contact full stop. When you can WFH and go to the local cafe for a cup of coffee, and local restaurants for lunch and the local pubs for a few pints in the evening I think it’ll be a different ballgame.

People who aren’t from Dublin, intinctivly react against the the high prices for rent and buying property and generally would be gone in a heart beat to buy something bigger and cheaper down the country or to another city in Ireland.

Younger people will still want the bright lights and city experience, but after a year or two of house sharing it gets old pretty quickly especially if you spent four years getting a degree, and are now sharing a house with strangers, and can’t eat your dinner in the evening because they insist on monopolising the kitchen.

Meanwhile there’s a guy you went to school with who left when he was 15 and got a job in the local factory, he now has a decent house he’s settled down and doing adult things like going out to dinner with his wife/fiancé, he’s also started saving money and is thinking about investing in another property.

You have a degree from trinity agood job in a multinational, you’re earning a lot more than your school mate but you can’t save, you can’t even sit down and watch what you want on tv, Dublin is sucking every penny out of your pocket.

Those guys will be gone like a bullet after a year or two in Dublin


On a side note I think people are getting the wrong end of the stick with the civil service going remote. When they go remote it normalises it for every other company in the private sector

Pussyhands

DataDude wrote: »

Out of curiosity, why do you think this? I'd have thought that quality of life for a young family would be 10x higher somewhere like Waterford vs Dublin if you don't own your own home and your household income is sub €100k (maybe even higher).

I do wonder of all the people adamant that nobody would ever want to leave Dublin, how many are paying 50%+ of their after tax income on rent with zero prospect of ever owning a home. I suspect this might change your perspective.

If you've lived all your life in Dublin then chances of moving I think are nil. Country living is a big change. Even a regular occurance like slurry spreading I think would put city dwellers off.

Your friends are not there.

I'm from the countryside and I don't plan on moving back. Rural Ireland everyone knows your business, terrible amount of begrudgery. Anyone with ambition is seen to have notions.

A simple thing in Dublin like going to the airport requires way more planning and cost.

I'm sure some people will up sticks and move, but it's a massive change of lifestyle.

Pussyhands

PropQueries wrote: »

Actually very good points there. But look at it another way.

If only a total of 8,000 workers between all the civil service and private companies embraced WFH to the fullest and left Dublin, that’s the equivalent of Google shutting up shop tomorrow.

What would be the impact on the Dublin property market if Google shut down tomorrow?

Nothing.

Approximately 30k net migration to Ireland each year, mostly Dublin....that hasn't happened this year, and nothing's changed.

yagan

Pussyhands wrote: »

If you've lived all your life in Dublin then chances of moving I think are nil. lifestyle.

This is hilarious but not untypical of the Dublincentric view that urbanity ends outside the M50.

The simple fact is that there's many urban centres around this country that can offer a superior quality of life even with lower than Dublin wages.

The_Conductor

DataDude wrote: »

My point in that post was more to counteract the notion that the public sector cohort of workers can easily afford to live in Dublin and therefore why would they leave. I think the average public sector wage is roughly €50k. It's good money, better than the private sector, but it doesn't go a long way in the Dublin housing market.

The median public sector employee is on a payscale that tops out at EUR38k (HSE or civil service) after 14-20 years service.

In the last call for movements out of Dublin in the public sector (2018) almost 3/4 of those who applied were Clerical Officers on an average salary of EUR32.5k (their salary scale goes up to EUR38k- after 20 years service, however, any of the long servicing COs were less likely to want to move (as they had put down roots in communities)).

When EOs and higher grades were asked why they were not willing to relocate- the largest cohort of them said their reason was roots in the community, the second largest cohort (and actually the youngest staff in the questionaire) said moving would be detrimental to their careers and any hope they might have of ultimately succeeding in promotional competitions.

So- most of the jobs moving- are clerical in nature and newbie staff who don't have roots in their communities. Anyone over the age of 30 was extremely unlikely to apply for a transfer, regardless of where they came from.

The PSEU used publish these surveys all the time- Forsa haven't had as many- and they have tended to focus on clerical rather than executive grades.

DataDude

Pussyhands wrote: »

If you've lived all your life in Dublin then chances of moving I think are nil. Country living is a big change. Even a regular occurance like slurry spreading I think would put city dwellers off.

Your friends are not there.

I'm from the countryside and I don't plan on moving back. Rural Ireland everyone knows your business, terrible amount of begrudgery. Anyone with ambition is seen to have notions.

A simple thing in Dublin like going to the airport requires way more planning and cost.

I'm sure some people will up sticks and move, but it's a massive change of lifestyle.

Have to say I don't agree.

And even were it true, there's still a significant number of people not from Dublin forced to live there by their jobs. A couple of lads on my team, graduated a few years. All 3 not from Dublin and living in house shares. Earning "good money" but still spending absurd percentage of their wage on rent. They've been home for the last 12 months and I can sense their thoughts wandering. Expecting the notice to be handed in any day now as they can move to a rival who's committed to full WFH. Alternatively, if they're smart, they'll use the threat to strong arm us into giving them the same option.

P.S. I don't think I've ever met someone who considers proximity to the airport as a key factor in buying a house. How many holidays do you go on???

The_Conductor

yagan wrote: »

This is hilarious but not untypical of the Dublincentric view that urbanity ends outside the M50.

The simple fact is that there's many urban centres around this country that can offer a superior quality of life even with lower than Dublin wages.

It would be an excellent way of cutting public sector wages- by benchmarking them against the local cost of living. Seeing as only a minority of the public sector are in Dublin to begin with- there could be significant savings made. Of course there would be war if you suggested this.

newuser99999

DataDude wrote: »

.

P.S. I don't think I've ever met someone who considers proximity to the airport as a key factor in buying a house. How many holidays do you go on???

It’s such a ridiculous statement hahahaha. I’d much rather fly out of Knock, Shannon, Cork or Farranfore than I would Dublin. One of the worst airports I’ve been to.

The Spider

Pussyhands wrote: »

If you've lived all your life in Dublin then chances of moving I think are nil. Country living is a big change. Even a regular occurance like slurry spreading I think would put city dwellers off.

Your friends are not there.

I'm from the countryside and I don't plan on moving back. Rural Ireland everyone knows your business, terrible amount of begrudgery. Anyone with ambition is seen to have notions.

A simple thing in Dublin like going to the airport requires way more planning and cost.

I'm sure some people will up sticks and move, but it's a massive change of lifestyle.

Ah c’mon there’s not much slurry spreading goes on in Waterford City, or any other city for that matter. As for going to the airport, it’s around an hour and forty five minutes from Waterford and it’s motorway all the way, not exactly a massive hardship.

If you’re gong to the airport from Gorey it’s around an hour and twenty minutes again not exactly a huge amount of time (Granted there is some slurry spreading in Gorey)

Pussyhands

yagan wrote: »

This is hilarious but not untypical of the Dublincentric view that urbanity ends outside the M50.

The simple fact is that there's many urban centres around this country that can offer a superior quality of life even with lower than Dublin wages.

There was specific mention of towns and villages.

Pussyhands

The Spider wrote: »

Ah c’mon there’s not much slurry spreading goes on in Waterford City, or any other city for that matter. As for going to the airport, it’s around an hour and forty five minutes from Waterford and it’s motorway all the way, not exactly a massive hardship.

If you’re gong to the airport from Gorey it’s around an hour and twenty minutes again not exactly a huge amount of time (Granted there is some slurry spreading in Gorey)

I don't think Waterford City is the target of this programme...The population of Waterford City is about 60k...you'd need a massive amount moving there to have an impact.

jill_valentine

cnocbui wrote: »

Well This a remarkable turn around in attitude. I suggested earlier that people who can't afford to buy in Dublin should perhaps look outside of Dublin where housing is cheaper and i had my head bitten off. Now it's a great and sensible idea. :rolleyes:



https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116673947&postcount=6470

One of these things is not like the other.

"I think people will have the option to move out of Dublin in future" and "hasn't it occurred to you to just move somewhere cheaper?" are not the same thing.

The deciding factor is work. People need to live where they can work, and it's not altogether clear how that looks yet, so all this remains hypothetical. We're talking about a near future market here, not an existing one.

Discussing possibilities offered by the prospect of WFH - which I've been talking about since being involved in my company's rollout, roughly around this time last year - isn't remotely the same as scolding people for not having already done the things people have very patiently explained to you have not been viable options for some time, based on your misunderstanding of the modern market.

What do you suggest to that nurse? What apartments did you mean in Limerick? How much do you think a phone upgrade costs? How do you propose people get BOI, AIB and KBC'S internal risk appetite guidelines changed so they can get mortgages for derelicts?

yagan

Pussyhands wrote: »

There was specific mention of towns and villages.

Towns and villages, what with donkeys and priests roaming the streets?

Have you ever lived in an Irish urban centre outside of Dublin?

Pussyhands

DataDude wrote: »

P.S. I don't think I've ever met someone who considers proximity to the airport as a key factor in buying a house. How many holidays do you go on???

It's a service...

People already made the move out, hence why there's things called commuter towns.

I really think people overestimate how many will move. It's easy to say now, oh let's move to the countryside when everything is locked up and the only difference between country and city is the amount of space in your house you have.

We've heard the things like "Covid has shown us what really matters!"...Once this is over we'll be back to normal.

Pussyhands

yagan wrote: »

Towns and villages, what with donkeys and priests roaming the streets?

Have you ever lived in an Irish urban centre outside of Dublin?

I'm literally from one of the towns earmarked on news reports today as prime benefactors of this plan....

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

It's an excuse to give grants to a much favoured sector in the past
The publicans

I'd really question making the pub a workplace in Ireland

There's so many things that could go wrong

All part of the conspiracy as some publicans are also developers. Shock horror

Cyrus

newuser99999 wrote: »

It’s such a ridiculous statement hahahaha. I’d much rather fly out of Knock, Shannon, Cork or Farranfore than I would Dublin. One of the worst airports I’ve been to.

Hardly any more ridiculous than the above might not be an amazing airport but it’s certainly the best one we have.

givyjoe

The Spider wrote: »

Completely disagree with this, vast majority in IT and similar office setups will have remote working, big multinationals have already come out and said remote is the way forward and thats who the indigenous companies are competing with.

The very least will be a blended approach 1-2 days on the office and the rest remote, if a company especially in IT wants staff in full time, prepare to lose the talent, most IT staff already have one foot out the door at the best of times, most leave after two to three years if they havent been promoted.

Only option really is if ypu want your staff in the office full time to pay more than twitter and give better benefits, how likely is that?

I think a bigger issue is for all the smaller companies down the country who hae decent teams, now losung staff to the multinational as they can't compete on salary or benefits.

Good luck getting a job in a multinational, based here, in the future so. If they go fully remote there is literally zero incentive for them to hire staff here, of they can be got elsewhere, for the same or less cost and arguably a larger pool of equal talent to choose from. While multinationals INITIALLY may have been all for remote working, that isn't the case at this point as they're starting to see a lot of the negative effects of FT WFH appearing. Very few if any companies will be fully remote and even fewer staff will be. It won't be long before FT WFH start getting serious fomo while their colleagues return at least some of the time to the office. Whether that be social interaction, promotions etc, they absolutely will be missing out at home. These multinationals are also largely staffed by highly mobile immigrants, the absolute last place they're going to be moving to is ballygobackwards.

As I said, very few will be 5 days, WFH, 1 day in the office is pointless and hubs just aren't a reasonable prospect for the vast majority of companies. Multinationals make up a small proportion of our total workforce. They will not be the ones making a noticeable difference to the wider housing market. They may make a dent in the premium rental market in Dublin however.

standardg60

givyjoe wrote: »

Good luck getting a job in a multinational, based here, in the future so. If they go fully remote there is literally zero incentive for them to hire staff here, of they can be got elsewhere, for the same or less cost and arguably a larger pool of equal talent to choose from. While multinationals INITIALLY may have been all for remote working, that isn't the case at this point as they're starting to see a lot of the negative effects of FT WFH appearing. Very few if any companies will be fully remote and even fewer staff will be. It won't be long before FT WFH start getting serious fomo while their colleagues return at least some of the time to the office. Whether that be social interaction, promotions etc, they absolutely will be missing out at home. These multinationals are also largely staffed by highly mobile immigrants, the absolute last place they're going to be moving to is ballygobackwards.

As I said, very few will be 5 days, WFH, 1 day in the office is pointless and hubs just aren't a reasonable prospect for the vast majority of companies. Multinationals make up a small proportion of our total workforce. They will not be the ones making a noticeable difference to the wider housing market. They may make a dent in the premium rental market in Dublin however.

Zero incentive?
What about the only reason they're here in the first place?
Tax

standardg60

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm literally from one of the towns earmarked on news reports today as prime benefactors of this plan....

You are batting well.

What people don't generally realise is that the more a Government financially interferes with an open market the more skewed, ie bubble, that market becomes.
Has anyone asked why big international property funds have seen Dublin as a viable 'build to rent' investment? What do they see?
A long term commitment by multinationals to hire here due to tax reasons?
A Government strategy to create a rent floor based Hap?
A parallel Government strategy to inflate a housing market based on being both a lender to developers and a lender to buyers, thereby putting house ownership further and further away from renters?

Or all of the above?

givyjoe

standardg60 wrote: »

Zero incentive?
What about the only reason they're here in the first place?
Tax

And you think we're going to be able to keep that tax regime in place? And yes, zero incentive to hire FUTURE staff based here when they can get better, based remotely elsewhere. They're not going to shut up shop immediately. It's also not the only reason they're here, one of them though.

PommieBast

Villa05 wrote: »

It's an excuse to give grants to a much favoured sector in the past
The publicans

I'd really question making the pub a workplace in Ireland

There's so many things that could go wrong

I assume they would refit the places rather than leave in all the plumbing :rolleyes:

But yes it is basically a sop to a sector that has been abandoned. 18 months with little or no business is going to see a lot of pubs close permanently.