2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

standardg60

givyjoe wrote: »

And you think we're going to be able to keep that tax regime in place? And yes, zero incentive to hire FUTURE staff based here when they can get better, based remotely elsewhere. They're not going to shut up shop immediately. It's also not the only reason they're here, one of them though.

Glad you admit that they are here for a reason at least.
Do i think that reason can remain long term? No i don't.
We are sleepwalking into a scenario of mass multinational exodus, creating a housing/rental bubble on it's temporary back.
And who's to blame?
Anyone who's posted on this thread complaining about their inability to climb onto the property ladder must also ask themselves if they mentioned 'the homeless crisis' in various polls leading up to the last election. Those who promised action gained traction leading those who gained power to run scared.
Government parties are only ever interested in the next election, hence an interference in a market in which they should play no part.
What if car ownership became a fundamental right, and tax incentives, rent subsidies, shared equities, and help to buy schemes became the norm.
Do you think prices would rise or fall?
We are all authors of our own downfall, all hoisters of our own petard, all that remains is how long the pretence can be maintained by cheap Government borrowing.
The State is the new Anglo.

Pussyhands

So is there anyone out there getting value?

Everything just seems squeezed to the max. I'm kinda nervous about buying in this time as it won't be my long term home (will rent out a room though so will cover some of the mortgage)

hometruths

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm literally from one of the towns earmarked on news reports today as prime benefactors of this plan....

Where did you see towns named? Was this news outlets speculating on where the investment would go, or government?

riclad

if you live in a small town you can buy a house at a low price,
considering mortgage expense,s, you will have maybe a better quality of life,theres less noise, zero traffic jams,easy to find a parking space.
If you can get a full time job there .
if you are working for certain companys, eg intel,
google, etc you have to live in or close to dublin.
Most big civil service government offices are located in dublin
the government does not help small landlords financially .
the goverment only helps first time buyers mostly.
i think its a great idea in that it will increase investment in rural towns,
it will reduce traffic,
its like they copied wework,
eg use old empty buildings for shared office space
with modern faciltys like high speed internet wifi.
i don,t think the government wants to inflate house prices,
i think they want people on a average wage buy a house.

i think in 2019 the government announced a plan to build 1000,s of
social housing units,
before the covid crisis happened to close down all building sites.

theballz

McWilliams was right in latest podcast. Anyone who buys now is mad.

standardg60

theballz wrote: »

McWilliams was right in latest podcast. Anyone who buys now is mad.

Whilst he was right in identifying a state influenced property market, i think the bubble will go on for a number of years yet.
Put it this way, if i was able to avail of any Government inducements to get on the ladder i would be filling my boots, both in terms of help to buy or shared equity schemes. If the banks are having so much difficulty repossessing homes due to non performing loans then what chance has the State? Imagine the uproar.

Pussyhands

It's so hard to know. I remember thinking back in 2019 it was a bad time to buy, and here we are 2 years later.

It's head wrecking. I don't want to be waiting each year wondering if there'll be a renewal on the rent or if the rent is going up. I want to take power of my own and build up equity but the downsides are high too.

ExMachina1000

How many houses and apartments will Councils/government buy up annually when OGorman's own door replacement for direct provision is rolled out?

I understand it's not a fixed number either. More arrivals means more accommodation. No limit set

MacronvFrugals

Whilst low interest rates is having investors driving up property everywhere as always the Irish put the cream on top.

Funds sweating to come here to directly either build to rent or buy and leasing to councils at inflation linked rates, even Eddie Hobbs is trying to get in on the action!

And we actually think we’re grown up like the Scandinavian countries, only someone who hasn’t lived in these places would even say something like that.

Stark

Asking prices aren't crazy but people seem to have completely abandoned the idea of having a walk away price in the bidding wars.

Also I'm pretty sure this bid before you view thing is pushing prices up. I'd say a fair few of the people who love to view properties with no intent of buying are now pushing the bids to the max in the knowledge that they're under no obligation to go through with the purchase. Quite a few estate agents I've dealt with have only asked me for proof of funds when the bidding was closed so you could have all sorts of messers.

combat14

commercial property market must surely be an absolute mess at this stage ..

Owners of Kildare Village expect ‘significant impact’ on business from Covid-19

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/owners-of-kildare-village-expect-significant-impact-on-business-from-covid-19-1.4523119%3fmode=amp

interesting to see rental model used:

Value Retail’s business model is as a landlord to fashion brands, and it charges them a royalty fee based on sales instead of a fixed rent.


so maybe tenants not as badly affected as other retailers


meanwhile looks like summer is on the verge of being cancelled - economy and govt finances will be in serious problems if we dont reopen soon ...

Easing lockdown now could result in new wave of Covid cases lasting until mid-summer, Nphet warns

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/easing-lockdownnow-could-result-in-new-wave-of-covid-cases-lasting-until-mid-summer-nphet-warns-40254516.html

theballz

standardg60 wrote: »

Whilst he was right in identifying a state influenced property market, i think the bubble will go on for a number of years yet.
Put it this way, if i was able to avail of any Government inducements to get on the ladder i would be filling my boots, both in terms of help to buy or shared equity schemes. If the banks are having so much difficulty repossessing homes due to non performing loans then what chance has the State? Imagine the uproar.

The biggest issue is supply.

I’m a first time single buyer, I was bidding on a ground floor apartment a few weeks ago. It went for 70k over asking price (without being able to view it.)

6 months prior, an apartment in the same building top floor went for cheaper.

Rents are falling too. It’s not a time to be buying, the government needs to let construction back or this will be years as you correctly said.

treenytru

Stark wrote: »

Asking prices aren't crazy but people seem to have completely abandoned the idea of having a walk away price in the bidding wars.

Also I'm pretty sure this bid before you view thing is pushing prices up. I'd say a fair few of the people who love to view properties with no intent of buying are now pushing the bids to the max in the knowledge that they're under no obligation to go through with the purchase. Quite a few estate agents I've dealt with have only asked me for proof of funds when the bidding was closed so you could have all sorts of messers.

Many that agree with you stark. People bidding just to go sale agreed to get a view of the house, then pulling out. Kicker us some estate agents reposting ad at that inflated price.

Paul merriman, a financial advisor, advising people to get out of the market for 18mths - 2 hrs

https://www.newstalk.com/news/buying-a-home-during-lockdown-some-people-are-bidding-just-to-get-a-look-at-a-house-1172478

yer man!

David McWIlliams has a followup podcast on the housing market and FTBs. Definitely an interesting approach to just step out of the market if you can. I'm currently on a job abroad on the continent and seeing the same thing here with regards to probate crappy houses up for sale and almost no new builds.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9kYXZpZG1jd2lsbGlhbXMubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M/episode/ODc1NjU4MjMtODRiZi00Nzk2LWFkYTQtYjZiNTllNjM3NTlj?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahcKEwiAo4HLw9fvAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAg

JohnnyChimpo

DataDude wrote: »

P.S. I don't think I've ever met someone who considers proximity to the airport as a key factor in buying a house. How many holidays do you go on???

Pre-lockdown, my SO was over to London at least once a fortnight. I have other mates with similar setups, one of them has to be in either Stockholm or London multiple times per month. Now hopefully there'll be a whole new perspective on that kind of frivolous business travel in post-COVID times, but it should be obvious that there's lots of people who get genuine benefit from being close to an international airport, and its not just so they can commute to their weekend home on the Costa Del Sol.

Personally, I don't drive and my SO rents a car whenever necessary. So if I lived in the back of beyonds I guess a business trip for me would involve herself getting up at the crack of dawn to drive me a couple of hours to the airport and back (in the car we now own) before she starts her own work day, that would take some cajoling. As it is, I just walk out the door and get a bus or taxi and I'm at airport security within 20 min. Sure, I could learn how to drive and wax a bunch of money on a car, running costs and insurance, but I have no interest.

(Just for clarity, I didn't buy a house specifically because it was handy for the airport, but it's a nice bonus. And if the MetroNorth ever gets built it'll be even handier)

Pussyhands

treenytru wrote: »

Many that agree with you stark. People bidding just to go sale agreed to get a view of the house, then pulling out. Kicker us some estate agents reposting ad at that inflated price.

Paul merriman, a financial advisor, advising people to get out of the market for 18mths - 2 hrs

https://www.newstalk.com/news/buying-a-home-during-lockdown-some-people-are-bidding-just-to-get-a-look-at-a-house-1172478

That's depressing. I'm looking to buy somewhere and keep for at least 3/4 years before I move to another part of the country for long term.

The Spider

givyjoe wrote: »

Good luck getting a job in a multinational, based here, in the future so. If they go fully remote there is literally zero incentive for them to hire staff here, of they can be got elsewhere, for the same or less cost and arguably a larger pool of equal talent to choose from. While multinationals INITIALLY may have been all for remote working, that isn't the case at this point as they're starting to see a lot of the negative effects of FT WFH appearing. Very few if any companies will be fully remote and even fewer staff will be. It won't be long before FT WFH start getting serious fomo while their colleagues return at least some of the time to the office. Whether that be social interaction, promotions etc, they absolutely will be missing out at home. These multinationals are also largely staffed by highly mobile immigrants, the absolute last place they're going to be moving to is ballygobackwards.

As I said, very few will be 5 days, WFH, 1 day in the office is pointless and hubs just aren't a reasonable prospect for the vast majority of companies. Multinationals make up a small proportion of our total workforce. They will not be the ones making a noticeable difference to the wider housing market. They may make a dent in the premium rental market in Dublin however.

Ok the vast majority of what you've said there is nonsense, and is your opinion rather than what is actually happening. Time and again you hear from people who dont understand the sector that WFH will mean that companies will outsource to cheaper locations. Outsourcing has been here since the 90's it still hasnt happened.

American multinationals are here to get access to the european market and beyond, we're a native english speaking country in europe. Again on this Irish IT staff are ridiculously good at what they do so companies will rather pay the money for experts.

WFH doesnt mean always at home, the vast majority of locations on this island are within a two-three hour drive to dublin.

Now I personally know CEO's who have said WFH in their orgs is here to stay. No multinationals havent rolled back on WFH. Twitter have said all staff can continue doing so if they want, as have others.

Promotions I'll grant you can be tricky we'll have to see how it plays out.

PropQueries

theballz wrote: »

The biggest issue is supply.

I’m a first time single buyer, I was bidding on a ground floor apartment a few weeks ago. It went for 70k over asking price (without being able to view it.)

6 months prior, an apartment in the same building top floor went for cheaper.

Rents are falling too. It’s not a time to be buying, the government needs to let construction back or this will be years as you correctly said.

I think what the Housing Minister said back in July 2020 could be a possible reason for the above scenario. Back on the 12th of July 2020, the Housing Minister said:

"The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly.".

The timeframe seems to match up with what you're seeing.

Link to article in The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/

coolbeans

standardg60 wrote: »

Glad you admit that they are here for a reason at least.
Do i think that reason can remain long term? No i don't.
We are sleepwalking into a scenario of mass multinational exodus, creating a housing/rental bubble on it's temporary back.
And who's to blame?
Anyone who's posted on this thread complaining about their inability to climb onto the property ladder must also ask themselves if they mentioned 'the homeless crisis' in various polls leading up to the last election. Those who promised action gained traction leading those who gained power to run scared.
Government parties are only ever interested in the next election, hence an interference in a market in which they should play no part.
What if car ownership became a fundamental right, and tax incentives, rent subsidies, shared equities, and help to buy schemes became the norm.
Do you think prices would rise or fall?
We are all authors of our own downfall, all hoisters of our own petard, all that remains is how long the pretence can be maintained by cheap Government borrowing.
The State is the new Anglo.

This is ridiculous negativity. Your entire argument seems to be based on Ireland's low corpo tax regime and if that changes then they'll all be gone in the morning. In other words we have nothing to offer apart from tax which is total rubbish for reasons others have touched on. The mass exodus you speak of is not going to happen as there are many other reasons they are here (as others have touched on) that have nothing to do with tax.
Another reason we're not in a bubble is population trends which put plainly show that there are far more people than available houses and that trend is set to continue. In that respect it's nothing like the previous crash where people built houses regardless of demand or location. Look at the CSO website and crunch the numbers for yourself.
IMO the only asset that may be overvalued are certain flats in Dublin but houses, no way. The only way is up for them unfortunately.
Tldr ; we're not as useless and without value as you think we are and there are way, way more people than houses to accommodate them. #nobubble.

Villa05

coolbeans wrote:

unfortunately. Tldr ; we're not as useless and without value as you think we are and there are way, way more people than houses to accommodate them. #nobubble.

A people's value should not be defined by the value of their homes

coolbeans

Villa05 wrote: »

A people's value should not be defined by the value of their homes

I never said that it should, the poster to whom I was referring is making out that we have no value to MNCs without the tax incentive.

Villa05

Is now the time to buy a home?
Irish indo, behind a paywall for those interested

Villa05

Wall Street journal have a piece on House prices rising in many markets/countries.

Money printing and 0 interest rates could be blowing up a bubble of epic proportions

Will post link later.


Ps does anyone know how to post a link on the boards phone app

Reins

Villa05 wrote: »

Wall Street journal have a piece on House prices rising in many markets/countries.

Money printing and 0 interest rates could be blowing up a bubble of epic proportions

Will post link later.


Ps does anyone know how to post a link on the boards phone app

Link gets saved to your phones clipboard and can post it from there

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

A people's value should not be defined by the value of their homes

thats not what was posted.

Villa05

coolbeans wrote:

Another reason we're not in a bubble is population trends which put plainly show that there are far more people than available houses and that trend is set to continue. In that respect it's nothing like the previous crash where people built houses.

I believe like you that we are not useless and therefore we have the capability to forecast demand and put in place plans to meet that demand with adequate supply. We have a 20 plus years headstart in forecasting demand

Given the current scenario and the relative ease in forecasting demand, we have to ask ourselves why there is such an imbalance.

All government policies are demand side from a state that is the largest owner of the key ingredient of increasing supply ie Land

Supply side policies such as vacancy taxes, taxing land hoarding etc are blocked by industry lobbyists. Ineffective and expensive regulation is rife in the industry adding significant cost to the end user

Entities that have access to 0% finance and pay no tax are the most active in the most expensive markets therefore set price pushing out workers in those areas

So one can argue that demand/supply is being controlled and entities whose sole objective is to increase price and rents are been given a huge taxation advantage by the state over its citizens

Could you create a more perfect breeding ground for the formation and sustaining of an asset price bubble. The problem is that the state that is the most indebted in the EU is financing and subsidising this madness

We are babies playing with fire

The Spider

givyjoe wrote: »

Good luck getting a job in a multinational, based here, in the future so. If they go fully remote there is literally zero incentive for them to hire staff here, of they can be got elsewhere, for the same or less cost and arguably a larger pool of equal talent to choose from. While multinationals INITIALLY may have been all for remote working, that isn't the case at this point as they're starting to see a lot of the negative effects of FT WFH appearing. Very few if any companies will be fully remote and even fewer staff will be. It won't be long before FT WFH start getting serious fomo while their colleagues return at least some of the time to the office. Whether that be social interaction, promotions etc, they absolutely will be missing out at home. These multinationals are also largely staffed by highly mobile immigrants, the absolute last place they're going to be moving to is ballygobackwards.

As I said, very few will be 5 days, WFH, 1 day in the office is pointless and hubs just aren't a reasonable prospect for the vast majority of companies. Multinationals make up a small proportion of our total workforce. They will not be the ones making a noticeable difference to the wider housing market. They may make a dent in the premium rental market in Dublin however.

Oh and for anyone thinking that remote work is going to disappear any time soon have a read of this:

https://irishdev.com/Home/News/1981-Exodus-of-Workers-May-Seek-New-Jobs.html

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I believe like you that we are not useless and therefore we have the capability to forecast demand and put in place plans to meet that demand with adequate supply. We have a 20 plus years headstart in forecasting demand

Given the current scenario and the relative ease in forecasting demand, we have to ask ourselves why there is such an imbalance.

All government policies are demand side from a state that is the largest owner of the key ingredient of increasing supply ie Land

Supply side policies such as vacancy taxes, taxing land hoarding etc are blocked by industry lobbyists. Ineffective and expensive regulation is rife in the industry adding significant cost to the end user

Entities that have access to 0% finance and pay no tax are the most active in the most expensive markets therefore set price pushing out workers in those areas

So one can argue that demand/supply is being controlled and entities whose sole objective is to increase price and rents are been given a huge taxation advantage by the state over its citizens

Could you create a more perfect breeding ground for the formation and sustaining of an asset price bubble. The problem is that the state that is the most indebted in the EU is financing and subsidising this madness

We are babies playing with fire

How would you have proposed the government deal with the shortwave of skilled labour over the last 5-7 years? There was a focus on building offices of which there was a shortage. Offices were required for people to work in. Should the government have increased the number of people coming to Ireland to work? If so where would those people have lived? Where would they come from? I’ve asked you this a few times but you can’t or won’t answer the question.

The_Conductor

riclad wrote: »

if you live in a small town you can buy a house at a low price,
considering mortgage expense,s, you will have maybe a better quality of life,theres less noise, zero traffic jams,easy to find a parking space.

It depends entirely on which small town you have in mind- some of our regional towns are worse traffic wise than much of Dublin- and if you want the city with the most expensive average price of housing in Ireland- its Galway, not Dublin.

The picture you're painting is very much the middle of nowhere whatsoever- its not reflective of what many of us recognise as part and parcel of our towns and villages outside of the Pale.

riclad wrote: »

If you can get a full time job there .
if you are working for certain companys, eg intel,
google, etc you have to live in or close to dublin.

The primary factor used to determine where Intel located- was the speed at which you could get to and from Dublin airport. Nothing more, nothing less. Leixlip got lucky. I was on several of the exploratory trips (not as an employee) back in the 80s- believe you me, there was a large element of luck involved in Leixlip's case. We had fun with the presentation for a few different locations- Leixlip was just outside the timeline for getting to/from the airport- but the location fit the other criteria.

riclad wrote: »

Most big civil service government offices are located in dublin

Almost 78% of civil servants are already outside of Dublin after all the decentralisation schemes (the last one was in 2018). There are two issues with those remaining in Dublin 1) predominantly COs and not higher grades want to decentralise and 2) moving from Dublin is viewed as career suicide.

riclad wrote: »

the government does not help small landlords financially .
the goverment only helps first time buyers mostly.

The government allows 100% mortgage interest as an allowable deduction to try and help small landlords. I'd argue that the interest on debt, on any sort of debt, should never ever be an allowable cost against tax. Its why the National Lottery don't pay any tax- it was sold to a consortium led by the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund- who lent the consortium the funds to buy it at a 9% coupon rate- which neatly means it largely soaks up any profit the entity makes. (9% is a damn nice rate of return).

riclad wrote: »

i think its a great idea in that it will increase investment in rural towns,
it will reduce traffic,

I'm not clear how you imagine it'll reduce traffic- many people who might move from Dublin and who now rely on public transport- will be forced to buy their first cars in rural areas. You have little option but to drive from A to B- whereas this may not be the case for many in Dublin. In terms of traffic- it may lead to an increase in the number of cars on Irish roads. It may make a small difference to Dublin traffic- but it could just as easily cause a logjam somewhere else. Have you ever been stuck on the Headford road at 5pm on any weekday evening? Its worse than the quays in Dublin. It is not the panacea that you are suggesting.

riclad wrote: »

its like they copied wework,
eg use old empty buildings for shared office space
with modern faciltys like high speed internet wifi.
i don,t think the government wants to inflate house prices,
i think they want people on a average wage buy a house.

My sympathies to anyone who copies 'Wework'- which is synonymous for burning through billions of other people's money. Its a goddamn awful example- and if this is what we are aspiring towards, I want out.

riclad wrote: »

i think in 2019 the government announced a plan to build 1000,s of social housing units,
before the covid crisis happened to close down all building sites.

To provide thousands of social housing units- not build them. In practice this meant local authorities buying up developments and taking away opportunities from prospective first time buyers. Its hardly a good idea. Some local authorities were worse than others at this (Kildare or Galway for example).

There is no magic wand that can be waved which will provide succor to the different interested parties in this equation. Buying a house- removes an opportunity from someone else to buy it- and buying up a whole estate- risks creating a ghetto. Our track record is appalling- to the extent that as late as 2017, the EU Commission were holding study tours for planners in Roumania, Hungary and Poland- to come to Ireland and see what a haemes we were making of our housing situation. Its not gotten any better since.

LasersGoPewPew

In the context of my own little bubble of self serving interests, the market has gone off the rails in the past few weeks. One property of particular interest has risen by almost 80k in barely 2 days. I bid on many properties in the past year and a half but I have never seen anything like this considering the type of house and the area. It's a frenzy of bid after bid coming in. I could share more stories of much the same for plain bare bones properties. I am convinced EAs are taking bids from non AIP buyers who are desperate to get viewings.