2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Zenify

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

In the context of my own little bubble of self serving interests, the market has gone off the rails in the past few weeks. One property of particular interest has risen by almost 80k in barely 2 days. I bid on many properties in the past year and a half but I have never seen anything like this considering the type of house and the area. It's a frenzy of bid after bid coming in. I could share more stories of much the same for plain bare bones properties. I am convinced EAs are taking bids from non AIP buyers who are desperate to get viewings.

We just enquired with 5 properties and bids were all over asking so we didn't follow up. That was about 1 month ago. Got 2 emails in the last few days from estate agents asking us to send our number so they can call us. I've been looking at property for about 4 years and never got an email like that before. Things do seem to be selling so it seems odd.

hi!

cnocbui wrote: »

Well This a remarkable turn around in attitude. I suggested earlier that people who can't afford to buy in Dublin should perhaps look outside of Dublin where housing is cheaper and i had my head bitten off. Now it's a great and sensible idea. :rolleyes:



https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116673947&postcount=6470

That was me and I stand by what I said.

Baby01032012

Had a look at the Daft Q1 sales report being released tomorrow, supply down 34%, average price nationwide up 7% in Q1. Dublin prices up 8% in last 12 months with many counties outside Dublin up 11-12% in last 12 months.

standardg60

coolbeans wrote: »

This is ridiculous negativity. Your entire argument seems to be based on Ireland's low corpo tax regime and if that changes then they'll all be gone in the morning. In other words we have nothing to offer apart from tax which is total rubbish for reasons others have touched on. The mass exodus you speak of is not going to happen as there are many other reasons they are here (as others have touched on) that have nothing to do with tax.
Another reason we're not in a bubble is population trends which put plainly show that there are far more people than available houses and that trend is set to continue. In that respect it's nothing like the previous crash where people built houses regardless of demand or location. Look at the CSO website and crunch the numbers for yourself.
IMO the only asset that may be overvalued are certain flats in Dublin but houses, no way. The only way is up for them unfortunately.
Tldr ; we're not as useless and without value as you think we are and there are way, way more people than houses to accommodate them. #nobubble.

If the Corp tax rate is so low down the list of priorities of MNCs then why is our Government dead against the harmonisation of it with our EU neighbours?
Surely your own statement that there are more people than available houses is the very essence of a bubble?

Graham

standardg60 wrote: »

Surely your own statement that there are more people than available houses is the very essence of a bubble?

A people bubble?

Is that a thing?

standardg60

Graham wrote: »

A people bubble?

Is that a thing?

Why not answer the question instead of trying to be smart?

There is a shortage of housing because despite who people blame the Government has no influence in it, apart from being told by vested interests, the CIF, the Banking Industry Federation, both run by former politicians, that the only solution is to keep throwing money at it, undermining the independence of the CB in the process.
As DMcW says, how is it that we are being fleeced to both live and rent in our own sparsely populated country?
We not only need a buyers strike, but a renters one too, but it has to start with the Government initiating it's own.

coolbeans

standardg60 wrote: »

If the Corp tax rate is so low down the list of priorities of MNCs then why is our Government dead against the harmonisation of it with our EU neighbours?
Surely your own statement that there are more people than available houses is the very essence of a bubble?

Of course the government would lobby to keep the status quo as it is one element of our competitive advantage along with English speaking, Anglo/US business culture, access to EU etc and an embeddedness of skills experience, and infrastructure in high value sectors that have been here for nigh on fifty years. Do you have any idea how hard it is to get FDA approval when you're manufacturing for and exporting to the US market for example?

Your second point makes no sense to me, sorry.

MacronvFrugals

Baby01032012 wrote: »

Had a look at the Daft Q1 sales report being released tomorrow, supply down 34%, average price nationwide up 7% in Q1. Dublin prices up 8% in last 12 months with many counties outside Dublin up 11-12% in last 12 months.

I have stopped even looking, would feel like an awful sucker buying now!

McWilliams is right also that a serious amount of houses are probate (the bathrooms give them away)

standardg60

coolbeans wrote: »

Of course the government would lobby to keep the status quo as it is one element of our competitive advantage along with English speaking, Anglo/US business culture, access to EU etc and an embeddedness of skills experience, and infrastructure in high value sectors that have been here for nigh on fifty years. Do you have any idea how hard it is to get FDA approval when you're manufacturing for and exporting to the US market for example?

Your second point makes no sense to me, sorry.

That's a very quick climbdown from 'total rubbish' to 'one element'.
I understand you may have skin in the game but the only entities who publicy promote the 'other benefits' of locating here are the MNCs themselves. No one knows what they're promoting behind closed doors, which makes me question the Government's stance. Do you remember Dell?

I have no idea why you wouldn't address/make sense of my second point.
An imbalance of supply versus demand doesn't create a skewed market?

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

How would you have proposed the government deal with the shortwave of skilled labour over the last 5-7 years? There was a focus on building offices of which there was a shortage. Offices were required for people to work in. Should the government have increased the number of people coming to Ireland to work? If so where would those people have lived? Where would they come from? I’ve asked you this a few times but you can’t or won’t answer the question.

We have direct access to one of the biggest labour markets in the world in the eu

During the pandemic we had no issue bringing in fruit pickers from Bulgaria. Did strawberries double in price as a result

Again during the pandemic, one of the main arteries into limerick City was completely resurfaced efficiently by a crew of Eastern European workers who worked day and night. Imagine that working on roads at night in the Irish Republic. I don't know what happened the council workers that used to do this work, maybe there still waiting to be transferred to Irish water

I suppose if we were getting any notions that Government would help to address the supply issue they are now and into the future pursuing a policy of long term leasing when it certainly appears that commercial property will be winding down for some time thus releasing significant labour resources to the market.
So we are the largest owner of land
Access to 0% finance
Access to an increasing labour pool. some of which may end up on social welfare and the EU encouraging states to stimulate economies to reboot after the pandemic.
Yet the government believes long term leasing of existing housing with what is reported to be a chronic supply issue is the answer.

Pussyhands

Would make you sick to hear Martin going on about re-opening construction of house building because of the housing crisis yet the crisis was there in January ffs.

I really thought prices had peaked around 2019 but no, the government did their very best to pump prices higher with the increased HTB and shutting down constructions.

TheSheriff

Baby01032012 wrote: »

Had a look at the Daft Q1 sales report being released tomorrow, supply down 34%, average price nationwide up 7% in Q1. Dublin prices up 8% in last 12 months with many counties outside Dublin up 11-12% in last 12 months.

Worth pointing out for those wandering into this thread that the majority of people (myself included) have been 100% wrong on the market. It goes to show nobody really has a clue....

Did anyone call the increase ? I can only remember that we were meant to have 75% decreases.

Villa05

Baby01032012 wrote:

Had a look at the Daft Q1 sales report being released tomorrow, supply down 34%, average price nationwide up 7% in Q1. Dublin prices up 8% in last 12 months with many counties outside Dublin up 11-12% in last 12 months.

Imagine what a shared ownership scheme will do in an environment like this

AdamD

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I have stopped even looking, would feel like an awful sucker buying now!

McWilliams is right also that a serious amount of houses are probate (the bathrooms give them away)

I doubt that at any given moment in time a serious number of houses on the market are probate, given how difficult it is to repossess a house in Ireland.

Marius34

TheSheriff wrote: »

Worth pointing out for those wandering into this thread that the majority of people (myself included) have been 100% wrong on the market. It goes to show nobody really has a clue....

Did anyone call the increase ? I can only remember that we were meant to have 75% decreases.

By expecting only 3-5% decrease, you already was seen as an Estate Agent.
Now I'm saying that we won't see 2020 lows anymore, and it seems like I'm not talking serious.
Someone predicting price increase in beginning of the crisis, by most would be seen as an absolute joke..
I think this mindset is caused by unique 2008 massive Crash. As if this should repeat from now on, on any Crisis.

I think this is a good video for this thread, if it's a good time to buy property:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCzfLX_meDU

fago

Since it seemed like a constant question, the source data is available and the maths is simple I tried to see how closely correlated the daft report might be against the CSO.

Took:
- https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/
- https://ww1.daft.ie/report/2021-Q1-houseprice-daftreport.pdf?d_rd=1 The asking prices residential table.

Both daft and CSO are normalized to 100 but to a different base, so I just looked at the ratio.

I am comparing the daft number and the CSO PPR number ~one year later~. That gives plenty of time for changes in asking price to filter through to completed sales appearing on the PPR.

The data would indicate there has been a pretty consistently relationship between the 2 for the last 6 years.
Net: If asking prices are up 10% Mar 2021 the PPR should be up 10% in Mar 2022.

(This is the sort of activity that daft should really do, with a bit more statistical rigor)

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

By expecting only 3-5% decrease, you already was seen as an Estate Agent.
Now I'm saying that we won't see 2020 lows anymore, and it seems like I'm not talking serious.
Someone predicting price increase in beginning of the crisis, by most would be seen as an absolute joke..
I think this mindset is caused by unique 2008 massive Crash. As if this should repeat from now on, on any Crisis.

If the 2008 crash was caused by too much credit given to homebuyers and investors, isn't the exact same thing happening now? i.e. the state being offered too much credit to buy, enter in long-term lease agreements or to pay for a doubling of HAP this year?

Just like when the credit was removed from the private market after 2007, once the credit is removed from the state, the exact same thing happens IMO

People go on about the funds etc. But the apartments and houses being built by the funds are only possible because the state is either buying or leasing a significant percentage of the end product.

It's all down to when someone believes when this credit to the state will dry up. Then we do have a 2008 scenario again IMO

As is often mentioned here, the property market doesn't impact on people in safe relatively high paying jobs like the multinationals, public sector etc.

But, if they really are in such relatively high paying jobs, I assume most would already have being renting. If they buy, their previously rented property enters the market again i.e. near enough zero-sum.

The state is the demand side of the housing market now and once the state is forced to pull out, the market plummets IMO

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

Worth pointing out for those wandering into this thread that the majority of people (myself included) have been 100% wrong on the market. It goes to show nobody really has a clue....

Is it really a mystery though given what the state is doing which this thread has been excellent in highlighting. The vast majority on here, many with an obvious vested interest were predicting a fall and instead we are looking at double digit increases. That shows the level of interference.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

Is it really a mystery though given what the state is doing which this thread has been excellent in highlighting. The vast majority on here, many with an obvious vested interest were predicting a fall and instead we are looking at double digit increases. That shows the level of interference.

State interference drives property prices up.
State interference drives rent up.


State might do well to read those two sentences.

timmyntc

PropQueries wrote: »

If the 2008 crash was caused by too much credit given to homebuyers and investors, isn't the exact same thing happening now? i.e. the state being offered too much credit to buy, enter in long-term lease agreements or to pay for a doubling of HAP this year?

Just like when the credit was removed from the private market after 2007, once the credit is removed from the state, the exact same thing happens IMO

People go on about the funds etc. But the apartments and houses being built by the funds are only possible because the state is either buying or leasing a significant percentage of the end product.

It's all down to when someone believes when this credit to the state will dry up. Then we do have a 2008 scenario again IMO

As is often mentioned here, the property market doesn't impact on people in safe relatively high paying jobs like the multinationals, public sector etc.

But, if they really are in such relatively high paying jobs, I assume most would already have being renting. If they buy, their previously rented property enters the market again i.e. near enough zero-sum.

The state is the demand side of the housing market now and once the state is forced to pull out, the market plummets IMO

All true in theory - but the thing with public debt is that there are no rules - countries can borrow and borrow and noone really cares. This country will be borrowing for the foreseeable and I cant see the credit drying up tbh

TheSheriff

Villa05 wrote: »

Is it really a mystery though given what the state is doing which this thread has been excellent in highlighting. The vast majority on here, many with an obvious vested interest were predicting a fall and instead we are looking at double digit increases. That shows the level of interference.

Totally agree, and also agree that should the shared equity come to pass these figures will be pumped up further.

Nobody wins again, except for the REITs

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

We have direct access to one of the biggest labour markets in the world in the eu

During the pandemic we had no issue bringing in fruit pickers from Bulgaria. Did strawberries double in price as a result

Again during the pandemic, one of the main arteries into limerick City was completely resurfaced efficiently by a crew of Eastern European workers who worked day and night. Imagine that working on roads at night in the Irish Republic. I don't know what happened the council workers that used to do this work, maybe there still waiting to be transferred to Irish water

I suppose if we were getting any notions that Government would help to address the supply issue they are now and into the future pursuing a policy of long term leasing when it certainly appears that commercial property will be winding down for some time thus releasing significant labour resources to the market.
So we are the largest owner of land
Access to 0% finance
Access to an increasing labour pool. some of which may end up on social welfare and the EU encouraging states to stimulate economies to reboot after the pandemic.
Yet the government believes long term leasing of existing housing with what is reported to be a chronic supply issue is the answer.

Dancing around the question as usual. Where would they all live as there was clearly a shortage of accommodation already. But go ahead and blame the gubberment as usual.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Is it really a mystery though given what the state is doing which this thread has been excellent in highlighting. The vast majority on here, many with an obvious vested interest were predicting a fall and instead we are looking at double digit increases. That shows the level of interference.

This thread has also been excellent at highlighting how many people don’t have a clue what is going on with the property market. There are conspiracy theorists, people who think there is nothing wrong, misery merchants and those that think they now what’s going on. Some of the stuff posted here is neary as bad as what you read on the Covid forum. Mad stuff altogether

6541

Hubertj wrote: »

This thread has also been excellent at highlighting how many people don’t have a clue what is going on with the property market. There are conspiracy theorists, people who think there is nothing wrong, misery merchants and those that think they now what’s going on. Some of the stuff posted here is neary as bad as what you read on the Covid forum. Mad stuff altogether

Okay so - Can you summarize what is actually going on and then what you predict will happen. Thanks.

woejus

AdamD wrote: »

I doubt that at any given moment in time a serious number of houses on the market are probate, given how difficult it is to repossess a house in Ireland.

You seem confused on the meaning of repossession & probate.

Probate sales are a relatively steady supply of properties (albeit usually in a state of disrepair), as the number of people dying and leaving estates is relatively similar year to year.

Repossessions are a function of political will and overall performance of loan books.

There is a well oiled machine working in the background, packaging up NPLs and repos to be sold to investors and individually through platforms like bidx1.

JohnnyChimpo

woejus wrote: »

You seem confused on the meaning of repossession & probate.

Probate sales are a relatively steady supply of properties (albeit usually in a state of disrepair), as the number of people dying and leaving estates is relatively similar year to year.

Repossessions are a function of political will and overall performance of loan books.

There is a well oiled machine working in the background, packaging up NPLs and repos to be sold to investors and individually through platforms like bidx1.

tbf, the former owner would have a lot of difficulty repossessing a house after it goes into probate.

unless the new owners break out the ouija board

Pussyhands

What's happening if you see a property go up on Daft but it's gone within a week but then weeks and weeks later there's still nothing on the PPR.

I saw a lovely spot I'm sure it was pre Christmas and it was taken down within a week. I don't see it anywhere on PPR.

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

Totally agree, and also agree that should the shared equity come to pass these figures will be pumped up further.

Shared equity is a bit of a panic from Ff. They are worried that homeownership rates are falling towards 60% and that will be the catalyst for a voters revolt as we head towards a critical mass of citizens that are impacted by extortionate rents.

Shared ownership is a mechanism to get more people in with skin in the game. It of course is going to be inflationary and will again blow up in our faces.

Ff was always party before the country no matter what the cost
Ff claim to have learned the lessons of the last crash. I'd say it's the wrong lessons they learned. They are using similar tactics to anglo irish

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Dancing around the question as usual. Where would they all live as there was clearly a shortage of accommodation already. But go ahead and blame the gubberment as usual.

Okay
We can't build houses because they are no houses for the builders to live in so we will do sweet fkall
and
when we do have builders we'll put them on social welfare and buy 750k units for them to live in

Thanks for your contribution

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Okay
We can't build houses because they are no houses for the builders to live in so we will do sweet fkall
and
when we do have builders we'll put them on social welfare and buy 750k units for them to live in

Thanks for your contribution

If you bother to read my post I was referring to the last 5-7 years when there was a focus on building commercial and not residential. But sidestep again.