2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

Ah yes and all those who warned us in 05 and 06 of what was coming down the road were just a load of moaners?

All those who said house prices were in a bubble were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we shut construction during pandemic were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we allow the shared-equity scheme to go ahead were moaners

Well we are not talking about a bubble in this context we are talking about Props assertion that the US is gong to bring Ireland and their MNCs down and even through the last recession the MNCs status stayed fairly constant in Ireland even after the bubble popped in 07/08

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

Gov themselves have stated that current revenues from corpo tax are not sustainable into the future. would it not be prudent to ringfence tax from this source to use on much needed one off capital expenditure programs such as
Housing
Broadband
Renewable energy sources etc

These areas of spending suffered most in the last bust

Instead we are entering long term leases amongst other recurring spending putting significant pressure on taxpayers and leaving us exposed and vulnerable in the next downturn

We have been here before, repeating the same mistakes over and over again and wait for it

Nobody saw it coming!

There should be a council tax in Ireland. Paid by everyone living in the area benefiting from said tax, whether they rent or own the house they are living in.

PropQueries

coolbeans wrote: »

Some people just can't see anything attractive in Ireland and can't get their heads around the fact that we are a relatively decent country to live in. You'd think you were reading the Daily Express comments section here such is the determination to make us out to be a complete basket case of a nation.

You’re mistaken peoples concerns. The state has been spending the taxes levied on multinationals like they’re a permanent source of long term tax revenue.

If there are changes in the global tax regime that reduces these significantly in the future, all those pay increases to the public sector will have to be reversed and then some.

If a public sector employee buys a home based on his current salary, that person could be in serious financial trouble in the near future.

If at the extreme end, multinationals actually start leaving the state, their employees are also in serious financial difficulty. If they got a mortgage, that means our banks are bust again and this time permanently IMO.

That means no small business can get loans, people can’t get loans to buy cars, homes, pay for home improvements etc. etc.

Think Greece 2010 but worse IMO

Sue de Nimes

Does anyone know if there were any changes to viewings being permitted?

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

There should be a council tax in Ireland. Paid by everyone living in the area benefiting from said tax, whether they rent or own the house they are living in.

Yes but only in a properly functioning market. How can people paying up to 50% of income on rent afford to pay any further tax of any nature

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

You’re mistaken peoples concerns. The state has been spending the taxes levied on multinationals like they’re a permanent source of long term tax revenue.

If there are changes in the global tax regime that reduces these significantly in the future, all those pay increases to the public sector will have to be reversed and then some.

If a public sector employee buys a home based on his current salary, that person could be in serious financial trouble in the near future.

If at the extreme end, multinationals actually start leaving the state, their employees are also in serious financial difficulty. If they got a mortgage, that means are banks are bust again and this time permanently IMO.

That means no small business can get loans, people can’t get loans to buy cars, homes, pay for home improvements etc. etc.

Think Greece 2010 but worse IMO

Will you stop oh my god Props seriously you need to go and have a cola or something else that might make you a little more positive. Greece had feck all people paying taxes and your proposed global tax reform has been spoken about for longer than a decade at this stage. You have little or no evidence of the doomsday scenario your mind seems to be lodged in playing out for real anytime soon.

coolbeans

timmyntc wrote: »

Ah yes and all those who warned us in 05 and 06 of what was coming down the road were just a load of moaners?

All those who said house prices were in a bubble were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we shut construction during pandemic were moaners
All those who said house prices would climb even more if we allow the shared-equity scheme to go ahead were moaners

Totally different situation. People were building houses with absolutely no regard to location or demand. It was exacerbated by the FF government linking a huge amount of tax revenue to property transactions. All of that was crazy, the definition of a bubble and we got the very predictable crash we deserved. This time, credit is restricted, building is restricted, population is increasing. That means no bubble.
Fwiw, I'll be looking to build or buy next year but I'm not going to distract myself with pie in the sky notions that's it's gonna crash. There's a lot of wishful thinking on this thread. Most of us live in the real world and will need a house in the near future. There was little available the before covid and even less now.

fliball123

coolbeans wrote: »

Totally different situation. People were building houses with absolutely no regard to location or demand. It was exacerbated by the FF government linking a huge amount of tax revenue to property transactions. All of that was crazy, the definition of a bubble and we got the very predictable crash we deserved. This time, credit is restricted, building is restricted, population is increasing. That means no bubble.

While I agree to a point I think we could potentially be heading into bubble territory. While every tom dick and harry has restricted access to credit, the state has access to unlimited cheap credit and they have been a big player in buying property and also using renting property from the REITS and Vultures and keeping their balance sheet going. So the 20 Billion borrowed last year and the projected 20 billion this year will in some way filter into the buying of these houses and could be blowing up prices as the state, REITs and vultures compete with Tom dick and harry to buy from a very small pool of property. So that is where the access to cheap credit may be blowing it up. There is a big difference between supply and demand so the price going up could be as a result of this as well or combo of both. We will only know in hindsight.

timmyntc

Villa05 wrote: »

Gov themselves have stated that current revenues from corpo tax are not sustainable into the future. would it not be prudent to ringfence tax from this source to use on much needed one off capital expenditure programs such as
Housing
Broadband
Renewable energy sources etc

These areas of spending suffered most in the last bust

Instead we are entering long term leases amongst other recurring spending putting significant pressure on taxpayers and leaving us exposed and vulnerable in the next downturn

We have been here before, repeating the same mistakes over and over again and wait for it

Nobody saw it coming!

We should be paying back our govt debt. More crises will come down the line - we cant go for the conservative pay back as little as possible approach and kick the can down the road. Covid is just one such thing, I dont doubt that between now and 2035 there'll be another financial shock. We cant just keep borrowing forever.

Some light reading: https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/parliamentaryBudgetOffice/2020/2020-04-21_national-debt-an-overview_en.pdf

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

While I agree to a point I think we could potentially be heading into bubble territory. While every tom dick and harry has restricted access to credit, the state has access to unlimited cheap credid and they have been a big player in buying property and also using renting property from the REITS and Vultures and keeping their balance sheet going. So the 20 Billion borrowed last year and the projected 20 billion this year will in some way filter into the buying of these houses and could be blowing up prices as the state, REITs and vultures compete with Tom dick and harry to buy from a very small pool of property. So that is where the access to cheap credit may be blowing it up. There is a big difference between supply and demand so the price going up could be as a result of this as well or combo of both. We will only know in hindsight.

This time next year I will have you converted and house prices will be 20% higher

Welcome to the club

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

We should be paying back our govt debt. More crises will come down the line - we cant go for the conservative pay back as little as possible approach and kick the can down the road. Covid is just one such thing, I dont doubt that between now and 2035 there'll be another financial shock. We cant just keep borrowing forever.

I believe we are paying it back as we go and it was the plan up until covid we had actually turned from borrowing to having a surplus in 2019. Sure get out of Covid first , get the economy rocking again and then yes I agree we should be paying this back at a rate higher than .

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

This time next year I will have you converted and house prices will be 20% higher

Welcome to the club

Well I call it as I see it

Villa05

timmyntc wrote:

We should be paying back our govt debt. More crises will come down the line - we cant go for the conservative pay back as little as possible approach and kick the can down the road. Covid is just one such thing, I dont doubt that between now and 2035 there'll be another financial shock. We cant just keep borrowing forever.

Debt is good thing if you can get a return higher than the cost or saves in multiple terms

Housing is the obvious candidate
Renewable energy also as it generates income

Hubertj

The impending changes to corporation tax internationally has been discussed to death on this thread. It will impact Ireland medium term. MNCs have already factored this into their plans. Amazingly they continue to invest in Ireland even though the only reason they are here is for tax purposes but taxes are going to increase. I don’t understand it. Someone from boards should tell them before they make a terrible mistake.

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

I believe we are paying it back as we go and it was the plan up until covid we had actually turned from borrowing to having a surplus in 2019. Sure get out of Covid first , get the economy rocking again and then yes I agree we should be paying this back at a rate higher than .

From that doc I linked, the govts plan pre covid was not to reduce the debt, but to grow GNI so that our GNI to debt ratio went from ~100% to 80%.

The plan is just to pay the interest, and grow the economy so the numbers look better. There is no ambition to pay back this debt and no contingency for our GNI shrinking. Infinite growth is the name of the game apparently

Pussyhands

Can anyone see house price increases in a years time?

I earn a decent sum but even if a partner of mine earned the same I'd still not be able afford a mortgage on a new semi D. Who the hell are these buyers? Are parents giving big sums of cash to kids?

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

From that doc I linked, the govts plan pre covid was not to reduce the debt, but to grow GNI so that our GNI to debt ratio went from ~100% to 80%.

The plan is just to pay the interest, and grow the economy so the numbers look better. There is no ambition to pay back this debt and no contingency for our GNI shrinking. Infinite growth is the name of the game apparently

Yeah your right it was sure they were keeping the surplus for a rainy day fund..

fliball123

Pussyhands wrote: »

Can anyone see house price increases in a years time?

I earn a decent sum but even if a partner of mine earned the same I'd still not be able afford a mortgage on a new semi D. Who the hell are these buyers? Are parents giving big sums of cash to kids?

It all depends I think the 2 main stats to keep your eye on are new supply coming on stream and net immigration. These 2 IMO will tell you what way prices will go in the future

TheSheriff

combat14 wrote: »

house prices absolutely soaring now again in the double digits - gosh the country must be experiencing some kind of economic boom with no economic shutdown and mass borrowing of governnent debt for people to be paying these prices for such poor quality homes

https://www.thejournal.ie/daft-report-3-5395912-Mar2021/

As terrible as it sounds, some sectors/people are experiencing an economic boom.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

The impending changes to corporation tax internationally has been discussed to death on this thread. It will impact Ireland medium term. MNCs have already factored this into their plans. Amazingly they continue to invest in Ireland even though the only reason they are here is for tax purposes but taxes are going to increase. I don’t understand it. Someone from boards should tell them before they make a terrible mistake.

If the pandemic showed us anything, it's that many of the service based multinationals can stay located here until the very last day that the tax advantages end and then ship all their employees to another state within 24 hours IMO

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah your right it was sure they were keeping the surplus for a rainy day fund..

Ah yes the rainy day fund thats more than offset by the extra borrowing the govt did when that rainy day came.

if they wanted to spend the money on something as an investing (like housing or infrastructure) at least that I could understand, but letting money sit when you have massive debts and record low interest rates - I personally do not get it.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

Yes but only in a properly functioning market. How can people paying up to 50% of income on rent afford to pay any further tax of any nature

Sure you would never get round to it then.
4 adults living in my parents house. Only one property tax between them.
A friend is living in his parents house with 3 sisters and both parents. Only one property tax between 6 of them.
The lady living next door alone has to pay the same all on her own.
You need to reform this at some stage.
If you keep waiting it gets harder to fix it.

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

Sure you would never get round to it then.
4 adults living in my parents house. Only one property tax between them.
A friend is living in his parents house with 3 sisters and both parents. Only one property tax between 6 of them.
The lady living next door alone has to pay the same all on her own.
You need to reform this at some stage.
If you keep waiting it gets harder to fix it.

You are suggesting a poll tax, not a property tax.

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

You are suggesting a poll tax, not a property tax.

Yes, some kind of universal charge that we can use to fund social amenities, we can call it.. the universal social charge

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

Sure you would never get round to it then.
4 adults living in my parents house. Only one property tax between them.
A friend is living in his parents house with 3 sisters and both parents. Only one property tax between 6 of them.
The lady living next door alone has to pay the same all on her own.
You need to reform this at some stage.
If you keep waiting it gets harder to fix it.

We cant just keep taxing when you look at what you have to pay to live in this country we are paying out already for

Property tax
Income tax
USC
PRSI
Stamp duty
VAT
Motor Tax
Carbon Tax
Petrol/deisel
ESB/Oil/Gas/heat
Home Insurance
Life insurance
Car insurance
Food
Clothes
Creche fees
Toll bridge
DIRT
Capital Gains
TV license
School book/uniforms
mortgage/rent

How much more blood do you want from the stone?

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

If the pandemic showed us anything, it's that many of the service based multinationals can stay located here until the very last day that the tax advantages end and then ship all their employees to another state within 24 hours IMO

You do not shift your work force in a day unless all they own fits in a carry-on size backpack. Any of your workforce who own property, cars, children and such, won't be moving for months, and probably only a fraction of them won't resign and stay put.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

You do not shift your work force in a day unless all they own fits in a carry-on size backpack. Any of your workforce who own property, cars, children and such, won't be moving for months, and probably only a fraction of them won't resign and stay put.

Stay put and do what? Deal with the banks sending weekly letters of demand for payment for the next 20 years. They will move to where the work is offered, no matter where it is IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Stay put and do what? Deal with the banks sending weekly letters of demand for payment for the next 20 years. They will move to where the work is offered, no matter where it is IMO

I would take that 20 years of banks sending letters to demand payment on a property that they legally wont be able to take and live their rent free. As I pointed out there is plenty of work coming into this country this year alone but you conveniently did not respond to it

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

As terrible as it sounds, some sectors/people are experiencing an economic boom.

We were at around 15% of potential FTB being able to purchase from the most recent figures on FTB mortgage drawdowns.

Lots of sectors are booming, but not necessarily booming sufficiently for employees to afford a home.
This is purely a supply for sale issue and will influence the next election much moreso than the last one

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

I would take that 20 years of banks sending letters to demand payment on a property that they legally wont be able to take and live their rent free. As I pointed out there is plenty of work coming into this country this year alone but you conveniently did not respond to it

Add up the total number of jobs "announced" and then remove just one i.e. the 1,000 workers that the DAA has permanently removed.

"A total of 1,000 staff – or one-third of the DAA’s Ireland-based workforce – will have left the semi-State airport company within the next few weeks as it cuts its workforce in the wake of the pandemic."

Link to article in Irish Independent on 11th March 2021: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/daas-job-cull-in-ireland-to-hit-1000-but-pay-to-be-restored-40185490.html