2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Brussels Sprout

Mad_maxx wrote: »

No , If the left has told us anything , its that the solution to government interference is always more government interference

This isn't America.

We have never had a left wing government in the history of the state. Every single government intervention in the property market, which in the past 30 years has always driven up prices, has been implemented by a centre-right party.

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

We cant just keep taxing when you look at what you have to pay to live in this country we are paying out already for

Property tax
Income tax
USC
PRSI
Stamp duty
VAT
Motor Tax
Carbon Tax
Petrol/deisel
ESB/Oil/Gas/heat
Home Insurance
Life insurance
Car insurance
Petrol
Food
Clothes
Creche fees
Toll bridge
DIRT
Capital Gains
TV license

How much more blood do you want from the stone?

If this thread tells you anything it should be that there is a coterie of wannabe social engineers that think governments are an efficient utiliser of resources and are beneficient, rather than the inefficient wasteful cancers they actually are.

We have people presented with the most glaringly obvious nonsense of The state buying up housing and paying stupid money for it, and yet those self same people seem to think giving these clowns the remainder of the tiny amount of disposable income most are left with, is a socially great idea.

You don't get better services and societal improvements, you get more HSE middle managers being paid even more.

coolbeans

PropQueries wrote: »

If the pandemic showed us anything, it's that many of the service based multinationals can stay located here until the very last day that the tax advantages end and then ship all their employees to another state within 24 hours IMO

How on earth is a pharmaceutical company going to do that? You can't make stents, or pacemakers over Teams.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Add up the total number of jobs "announced" and then remove just one i.e. the 1,000 workers that the DAA has permanently removed.

"A total of 1,000 staff – or one-third of the DAA’s Ireland-based workforce – will have left the semi-State airport company within the next few weeks as it cuts its workforce in the wake of the pandemic."

Link to article in Irish Independent on 11th March 2021: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/daas-job-cull-in-ireland-to-hit-1000-but-pay-to-be-restored-40185490.html

ok and add in another 16496
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/cc269-16496-new-jobs-created-by-enterprise-ireland-supported-companies-in-2020/

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Stay put and do what? Deal with the banks sending weekly letters of demand for payment for the next 20 years. They will move to where the work is offered, no matter where it is IMO

Have you ever sold up and moved with children from one country to another? I'm guessing you haven't. How many properties have you owned and sold? You know that takes months or years, right?

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Have you ever sold up and moved with children from one country to another? I'm guessing you haven't. How many properties have you owned and sold? You know that takes months or years, right?

Just like in 2008 and where the state threw the unemployed construction workers under the proverbial bus (i.e. they refused them social welfare because they were "self-employed" i.e. they basically told them to either starve or emigrate if I'm remembering correctly), the workers who the state will once again throw under the proverbial bus will leave the state even quicker IMO

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

ok and add in another 16496
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/cc269-16496-new-jobs-created-by-enterprise-ireland-supported-companies-in-2020/

How many of the employees of Enterprise Ireland client companies are currently only "employed" because of some Government Covid wage support scheme and not "officially" out of work permanently?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Just like in 2008 and where the state threw the unemployed construction workers under the proverbial bus (i.e. they refused them social welfare because they were "self-employed" i.e. they basically told them to either starve or emigrate if I'm remembering correctly), the workers who the state will once again throw under the proverbial bus will leave the state even quicker IMO

OK are we comparing to 08 again

So now the self employed are entitled to social welfare
We have one of the most lucrative social welfare entitlements on the globe
So who are the workers being thrown under the bus this time and why would they leave such generous social welfare entitlements. This has all come about because of COVID is there any country on earth that has not been impacted by COVID? So where will they be going that is going to offer what Ireland offer in the way of welfare?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

How many of the employees of Enterprise Ireland client companies are currently only "employed" because of some Government Covid wage support scheme and not "officially" out of work permanently?

No one knows that yet and we wont know until covid is gone

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

OK are we comparing to 08 again

So now the self employed are entitled to social welfare
We have one of the most lucrative social welfare entitlements on the globe
So who are the workers being thrown under the bus this time and why would they leave such generous social welfare entitlements. This has all come about because of COVID is there any country on earth that has not been impacted by COVID? So where will they be going that is going to offer what Ireland offer in the way of welfare?

The UK (our primary destination whenever we go bust), is moving full steam ahead. They will be re-opening a lot sooner than many other EU countries (incl. Ireland) because of the genius move that was Brexit.

They have a large self-sustaining economy and given how small our population is, they can soak up any number of unemployed people we can offer them IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The UK (our primary destination whenever we go bust), is moving full steam ahead. They will be re-opening a lot sooner than many other EU countries (incl. Ireland) because of the genius move that was Brexit.

They have a large self-sustaining economy and given how small our population is, they can soak up any number of unemployed people we can offer them IMO

haha lets see how that plays out ..Genius really its been 3 months and already they are feeling the effects of Brexit and this will not be noticed until covid is gone. Auld Boris can blame Covid but once Covid is gone what will he blame.. and already there is a lot of talk of there being a 4th wave in the UK ..nothing is certain except that your doomsday scenario playing in your head if it does play out for Ireland then every other country will be impacted to some degree as well, including the UK

Billythekid19

Pussyhands wrote: »

Can anyone see house price increases in a years time?

I earn a decent sum but even if a partner of mine earned the same I'd still not be able afford a mortgage on a new semi D. Who the hell are these buyers? Are parents giving big sums of cash to kids?

Nobody needs to save anymore for a new build. The governement is giving 30k in deposit for FTB's so not sure why people complain about affordability.

fliball123

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Nobody needs to save anymore for a new build. The governement is giving 30k in deposit for FTB's so not sure why people complain about affordability.

I think they still need their own 10% up , I could be wrong?

yagan

fliball123 wrote: »

OK are we comparing to 08 again

So now the self employed are entitled to social welfare
We have one of the most lucrative social welfare entitlements on the globe
So who are the workers being thrown under the bus this time and why would they leave such generous social welfare entitlements. This has all come about because of COVID is there any country on earth that has not been impacted by COVID? So where will they be going that is going to offer what Ireland offer in the way of welfare?

Where's the generous entitlements for Irish meat factory workers with no PPS number, no sick pay and wages paid via agencies outside of Ireland?

And people wonder why they've been the centre of covid outbreaks.

Billythekid19

fliball123 wrote: »

I think they still need their own 10% up , I could be wrong?

Nope a buyer needs to stump up 10%, and the bank will give them 90%.
Developers will accept the 30k htb grand as a deposit

fliball123

yagan wrote: »

Where's the generous entitlements for Irish meat factory workers with no PPS number, no sick pay and wages paid via agencies outside of Ireland?

And people wonder why they've been the centre of covid outbreaks.

Well not to sound nasty but if they are not entitled to work here legally or they dont pay tax here then why should they get anything?

cnocbui

jill_valentine wrote: »

One of these things is not like the other.

"I think people will have the option to move out of Dublin in future" and "hasn't it occurred to you to just move somewhere cheaper?" are not the same thing.

The deciding factor is work. People need to live where they can work, and it's not altogether clear how that looks yet, so all this remains hypothetical. We're talking about a near future market here, not an existing one.

Discussing possibilities offered by the prospect of WFH - which I've been talking about since being involved in my company's rollout, roughly around this time last year - isn't remotely the same as scolding people for not having already done the things people have very patiently explained to you have not been viable options for some time, based on your misunderstanding of the modern market.

What do you suggest to that nurse? What apartments did you mean in Limerick? How much do you think a phone upgrade costs? How do you propose people get BOI, AIB and KBC'S internal risk appetite guidelines changed so they can get mortgages for derelicts?

The nurse: There are somwhere around 92 job vacancies in that field in or near Limerick. Is there a salary loading for Dublin or would a nurse be paid the same for doing the same at, say, Limerick rgional?

My example of an apartment for €70 K existed in Oct and I provided the link and proof. Now it probably went for a bit more, but the gist of the property is cheaper outside of Dublin argument still stands: https://www.daft.ie/property-for-sale/limerick?salePrice_to=125000



That's the kitchen I started with when I bought my current house. At the time, banks would lend for the house and the cost of rennovation. Most people don't want the work involved, and that's their real objection. Have you personally applied for a loan for something that's a bit run-down, but livable in and which you could move in and fix up? Did the bank reject your application?

fliball123

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Nope a buyer needs to stump up 10%, and the bank will give them 90%.
Developers will accept the 30k htb grand as a deposit

wow didnt know that ..thats mad if it is true as thats now going back to 100% mortgages with the buyer having no skin in the game.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

haha lets see how that plays out ..Genius really its been 3 months and already they are feeling the effects of Brexit and this will not be noticed until covid is gone. Auld Boris can blame Covid but once Covid is gone what will he blame.. and already there is a lot of talk of there being a 4th wave in the UK ..nothing is certain except that your doomsday scenario playing in your head if it does play out for Ireland then every other country will be impacted to some degree as well, including the UK

According to the Irish Times on March 12th 2021:

"UK construction companies are actively recruiting Irish workers, sparking fears of a major skills exodus as most building sites remain closed due to Covid-19 restrictions. "

And given that both the UK and USA are now intent on bringing any jobs that were re-located to Ireland over the past 20 years for tax purposes back to their home countries, there will be plenty of jobs on offer in the UK for any Irish person who loses his job here IMO

Only problem will be that I will be picking up the tab (as I'm too old to leave) through higher property, income, pension taxes etc. for the mismanagement of our tax revenues over the past 5 years IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/british-recruitment-drive-for-builders-sparks-fear-of-exodus-1.4508053

Billythekid19

fliball123 wrote: »

wow didnt know that ..thats mad if it is true as thats now going back to 100% mortgages with the buyer having no skin in the game.

Yeah it has played a part in prices rising in the last 12 months.
Ive heard of new build phases being sold out on the day of their release.
Its very unfair on second time buyers that want to purchase a new build

Sue de Nimes

New builds are sold at prices on the assumption people avail of these schemes. Which makes them less affordable for people who can't avail of them.

I'm returning to Ireland from the UK and I can't avail of any incentives as I haven't been working in Ireland.

yagan

fliball123 wrote: »

Well not to sound nasty but if they are not entitled to work here legally or they dont pay tax here then why should they get anything?

That's the problem, they are. But it's us who've allowed their conditions to be tolerated. It's Irish society that's turned a blind eye to industries that have been long reliant on non Irish to fill.

Could you imagine those conditions be tolerated in any sector where mostly Irish work?

I reckon in the coming years there'll be many Irish names brought down by how they treated their imported agency staff. We know it's happening like we knew planning was bent before Gilmartin lifted the lid.

awec

fliball123 wrote: »

wow didnt know that ..thats mad if it is true as thats now going back to 100% mortgages with the buyer having no skin in the game.

It's not a 100% mortgage. There's a big difference between 90% + 10% HTB and a 100% mortgage.

The problem with 100% mortgages was not "skin in the game", it was that you could end up in negative equity with even the slightest dip in values.

Buyers getting their full 10% via HTB are just as insulated from this as those saving the 10% themselves.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times on March 12th 2021:

"UK construction companies are actively recruiting Irish workers, sparking fears of a major skills exodus as most building sites remain closed due to Covid-19 restrictions. "

And given that both the UK and USA are now intent on bringing any jobs that were re-located to Ireland over the past 20 years for tax purposes back to their home countries, there will be plenty of jobs on offer in the UK for any Irish person who loses his job here IMO

Only problem will be that I will be picking up the tab (as I'm too old to leave) through higher property, income, pension taxes etc. for the mismanagement of our tax revenues over the past 5 years IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/british-recruitment-drive-for-builders-sparks-fear-of-exodus-1.4508053

Good for them and anyone going to the UK thats fair enough they have been slow to reopen construction but I think caution was the right way to go I mean what happens if the 4th wave hits the UK hard and construction has to close back down over there. As for you theory of jobs going to the US and UK when/if the jobs start going back to the US and the UK then I might start worrying but its like the boy who cried wolf at this stage it has been talked about for 10/15 years and it has not happened and your never too old to leave. Also just to be sure our taxes have been mismanaged for more than 2 decades not just the last 5 years the government have made a dogs b0ll0x of it (something we do agree on)

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

Good for them and anyone going to the UK thats fair enough they have been slow to reopen construction but I think caution was the right way to go I amean what happens if the 4th wave hits the UK hard and construction has to close back down over there. As for you theory of jobs going to the US and UK when/if the jobs start going back to the US and the UK then I might start worrying but its like the boy who cried wolf at this stage it has been talked about for 10/15 years and it has not happened and your never too old to leave. Also just to be sure our taxes have been mismanaged for more than 2 decades not just the last 5 years the government have made a dogs b0ll0x of it (something we do agree on)

Has construction closed anywhere other than Ireland? I'm pretty sure the entire sector is deemed essential by most countries (including Ireland until last December)

awec

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Yeah it has played a part in prices rising in the last 12 months.
Ive heard of new build phases being sold out on the day of their release.
Its very unfair on second time buyers that want to purchase a new build

Unfortunately this has been very common for the last 5-6 years at least.

Mad_maxx

Villa05 wrote: »

Daft report showing Galway more expensive than Cork and over 30% more expensive than limerick

Both Cork and limerick average wage higher than Galway

interestingly enough though , rents in Galway are only about 10% more expensive than in Limerick , Galways market has always been the craziest in my opinion

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

Has construction closed anywhere other than Ireland? I'm pretty sure the entire sector is deemed essential by most countries (including Ireland until last December)

I think its only social builds that are going on currently I could be wrong? I am certain that a lot of build is going on you can see it on the street not sure if they are breaking the rules or what

Browney7

awec wrote: »

It's not a 100% mortgage. There's a big difference between 90% + 10% HTB and a 100% mortgage.

The problem with 100% mortgages was not "skin in the game", it was that you could end up in negative equity with even the slightest dip in values.

Buyers getting their full 10% via HTB are just as insulated from this as those saving the 10% themselves.

It's not quite the same as a 90% mortgage on a second hand house though in a mature estate. If you're selling a "new build" after two years (very few will need to do this!) for example and a new phase is for sale down the road from your new build that is a few years old, a FTB will get a 10% refund to buy the house down the road and none for yours. But correct that it's the same as a 100% mortgage

jill_valentine

Sorry, had brain failure there for a second - HTB can be accepted as a chunk of your deposit, but realistically you do need to have a sizeable amount amassed yourself. As we saw with the bump up in limits, the market already accounts for it, new build prices are inflated in order to eat up your HTB. People who can avail of it are mostly already in a position to buy.

I consider it basically useless to buyers, but as somebody pointed out to me before, it's meant to act as an incentive to builders rather than the actual buyers anyway.