2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Its still not easy access to the mortgage part. Have you tried to get a mortgage from a bank lately ?

No I haven't. But plenty of other people seem to be getting them just fine:

New figures from Banking & Payments Federation Ireland show that the number of mortgages approved rose by 8.8% in February on a monthly basis and by 3.9% compared with the same time last year.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0325/1206050-mortgage-approvals/

Villa05

L1011 wrote:

I think we're suffering from the common problem of thinking the 80s were 20 years ago still. When 2001 was. Rather horrifying when you're in your 30s, but reality.

L1011 wrote:

House for 3* salary was late 1980s

What changed in 96, thats when the last bubble really started. Double digit increases right through to 01.

I thought mortgage rules were 3.5 x 1 income plus 1.5 2nd income up to the mid 90s

jill_valentine

Out of interest, I was curious to compare like with like and can't find a figure - can anybody find a median Irish salary for 2000ish?

I can find loads of stuff referencing it but not the figure itself.

Marius34

jill_valentine wrote: »

Out of interest, I was curious to compare like with like and can't find a figure - can anybody find a median Irish salary for 2000ish?

I can find loads of stuff referencing it but not the figure itself.

Average Weekly:


https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-hes/hes2015/aiw/

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

The UK (our primary destination whenever we go bust), is moving full steam ahead. They will be re-opening a lot sooner than many other EU countries (incl. Ireland) because of the genius move that was Brexit.

They have a large self-sustaining economy and given how small our population is, they can soak up any number of unemployed people we can offer them IMO

You might as well sell your house now before it drops 75% and move to the UK if you think it is that great...It’s not like the have any housing issues

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

What changed in 96, thats when the last bubble really started. Double digit increases right through to 01.

I thought mortgage rules were 3.5 x 1 income plus 1.5 2nd income up to the mid 90s

People started earning more money

Geuze

Villa05 wrote: »

What changed in 96, thats when the last bubble really started. Double digit increases right through to 01.

I thought mortgage rules were 3.5 x 1 income plus 1.5 2nd income up to the mid 90s

After we joined EMU in 1999, interest rates fell a lot.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

What changed in 96, thats when the last bubble really started. Double digit increases right through to 01.

I thought mortgage rules were 3.5 x 1 income plus 1.5 2nd income up to the mid 90s

That would be around when women really started coming into the workforce.
Also the banks and building societies started dropping that saving with them for 2 years before they would give you a mortgage rule.
Interest rates were about 8% at that time too. Not long after interest rates started dropping like a stone.

JimmyVik

jill_valentine wrote: »

Out of interest, I was curious to compare like with like and can't find a figure - can anybody find a median Irish salary for 2000ish?

I can find loads of stuff referencing it but not the figure itself.

I remember I left Uni in 1997 and started a job on £16K. I thought that was very well paid at the time. More money that id ever seen.
The economy was booming at the time and getting hotter.
The next year I was on £20k and over the next 3 years my salary doubled again.
There was a massive boom on in Ireland.

timmyntc

On the idea of nurses or other poorly paid workers going to Limerick for de chape houses:

1: Dublin health system would collapse if all the nurses just left for cheaper property
2: Limerick prices would rise the same way Dublin prices have

It's a stupid idea which would only move the problem to another City.
Property prices are the problem - not frontline workers having the nerve to want to buy a property in the city they work.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

No I haven't. But plenty of other people seem to be getting them just fine:



https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0325/1206050-mortgage-approvals/

They arent really a lot of people have to jump through a lot of hoops. If your or your company are on any kind of pandemic payment forget about it as well. So while some are getting a mortgage they will have gone through a long process which will include having to reapply multiple times. Also approval is a lot different than actually going to the bank and asking for the money the banks are really nitpicking and IMO its good that they are

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

They arent really a lot of people have to jump through a lot of hoops. If your or your company are on any kind of pandemic payment forget about it as well. So while some are getting a mortgage they will have gone through a long process which will include having to reapply multiple times. Also approval is a lot different than actually going to the bank and asking for the money the banks are really nitpicking and IMO its good that they are

I'm struggling to keep up. You've been telling us that demand has rocketed as evidenced by the fact mortgage approvals have rocketed.

But now mortgage approvals don't really mean much because banks are nitpicking?

So does that mean that evidence of surge in demand doesn't mean much?

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

That would be around when women really started coming into the workforce. Also the banks and building societies started dropping that saving with them for 2 years before they would give you a mortgage rule. Interest rates were about 8% at that time too. Not long after interest rates started dropping like a stone.

Were some banks focused on housing like the tsb and the big banks aib and boi more focused on business and then they put all there eggs in the mortgage market

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I'm struggling to keep up. You've been telling us that demand has rocketed as evidenced by the fact mortgage approvals have rocketed.

But now mortgage approvals don't really mean much because banks are nitpicking?

So does that mean that evidence of surge in demand doesn't mean much?

All I am pointing out is the extra checks the banks are doing. Look if you compare to 2008 they are not throwing money at people looking for loans. Have a look at the currently buying or selling thread a lot people are having an absolute nightmare trying to draw down.

Pussyhands

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

Cyrus

Pussyhands wrote: »

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

exactly

combat14

seems as if supply has floored with covid lockdowns while at the same time the only houses available are being snapped up within two weeks without even being seen by buyers.... who appear to be willing to pay any price...

will be interesting to see what happens when the market returns to 'normal' and we get a glimpse of how many cant repay their mortgage after a year of lockdowns, how many zombie businesses close, how many jobs are created and lost and what the true migration and house supply numbers are... and what the government intends to do to our taxes to repay the covid billions and balance the budget again, hard to tell at the moment..

on a seperate note great to hear pharma and it are booming, they now make up over half of our exports ..growing approx 15% last year .. lets hope we are not overly reliant on any sector going forward .. when have we seen that before?!

timmyntc

Pussyhands wrote: »

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

The big difference now is that there are even more players in the market - commercial entities and government itself and are bidding in the private market and pushing prices up. Property investments are giving better yields than most bonds since interest rates are so low. All well and good for institutional investors, but the little person gets shafted (as per usual)

Marius34

Pussyhands wrote: »

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

In addition, when I look at the older properties in Dublin, big part of them were Terraced houses, with a size less than 100 sqm, and the ones over 100 sqm in many case are due to extensions (except Dublin 4&6). So it doesn't make to much sense to me, if it was so affordable decades ago, but people were buying those small houses, and not bigger ones like in D4&D6.

Villa05

Pussyhands wrote:

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Property is a leveraged purchase, so property prices can be manipulated by what banks/government make available for their purchase. Best practice rules have been formed to avoid asset price bubbles.

Banks operating outside these rules usually ends in a crash
Governments implementing work arounds of these rules will bring the same result

Pussyhands wrote:

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

One would expect when more money is made available for a product, it would lead to significant improvements in the quality of that product, yet overtime the average size of homes and gardens has decreased in that time.

There have also been more issues with the use of sub standard materials, planning scandals, building on land prone to flooding. Fire safety issues etc

standardg60

Goldman Sachs seeking to sell it's portfolio of non-performing Irish mortgages, seemingly in an attempt to pre-empt an expected mass selling of similar portfolios by other institutions this year.
Be very interesting to see how much of their 400 million liability they'll accept in order to walk away.

What odds calls from the left for the State to purchase these portfolios to 'keep families in their homes'?
In for a penny in for a pound.

timmyntc

standardg60 wrote: »

Goldman Sachs seeking to sell it's portfolio of non-performing Irish mortgages, seemingly in an attempt to pre-empt an expected mass selling of similar portfolios by other institutions this year.
Be very interesting to see how much of their 400 million liability they'll accept in order to walk away.

What odds calls from the left for the State to purchase these portfolios to 'keep families in their homes'?
In for a penny in for a pound.

The state should buy them, then change the laws to allow evictions of non-paying mortgages if they refuse to arrange some payment plan.

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

All I am pointing out is the extra checks the banks are doing. Look if you compare to 2008 they are not throwing money at people looking for loans. Have a look at the currently buying or selling thread a lot people are having an absolute nightmare trying to draw down.

I'll second this. Okay, was a 2nd home, but well within parameters - overall salary multiples, % income, and LTV. Not even close to them. And have a perfect credit score.

But the hoops I had to jump through with permTSB were astonishing. Just kept coming back for more and more information - evidence of specific income & outgoings, multiple certifications from my work (a well established MNC), credit checks in the UK and USA (where both my wife and I have spent time in the last 5 years) They went through my bank statements forensically and queried numerous credits and debits.

It's done. But it is another anecdote supporting the fact that the banks are being super cautious

Stark

Deleted User wrote: »

But the hoops I had to jump through with permTSB were astonishing. Just kept coming back for more and more information - evidence of specific income & outgoings, multiple certifications from my work (a well established MNC), credit checks in the UK and USA (where both my wife and I have spent time in the last 5 years) They went through my bank statements forensically and queried numerous credits and debits.

"What is this... OnlyFans?".

MacronvFrugals

standardg60 wrote: »

What odds calls from the left for the State to purchase these portfolios to 'keep families in their homes'?
In for a penny in for a pound.

Sure at the minute the state is enriching developers and investments funds beyond their wildest dreams...

Inflation linked leasing from funds
HAP
HTB
Shared equity (developer written)
RI 5/1 mortgages
Developer written planning procedures (which hasnt speeded up anything)
LDA - a super quango from FG to give developers unbelievably
valuable land


Bugs Bunny has eaten less carrots than we've given to the property industry and they still cant provide the goods, by goods i mean nurses are being told to clear out or rent a one bed slum, it may be time for a few sticks!

Stark

Stark wrote: »

"What is this... OnlyFans?".

Yeah, those incoming credits probably stood out

JimmyVik

combat14 wrote: »

seems as if supply has floored with covid lockdowns while at the same time the only houses available are being snapped up within two weeks without even being seen by buyers.... who appear to be willing to pay any price...

will be interesting to see what happens when the market returns to 'normal' and we get a glimpse of how many cant repay their mortgage after a year of lockdowns, how many zombie businesses close, how many jobs are created and lost and what the true migration and house supply numbers are... and what the government intends to do to our taxes to repay the covid billions and balance the budget again, hard to tell at the moment..

on a seperate note great to hear pharma and it are booming, they now make up over half of our exports ..growing approx 15% last year .. lets hope we are not overly reliant on any sector going forward .. when have we seen that before?!

I think the market is 3 or 4 years away from normal.
Hope im wrong.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

I think the market is 3 or 4 years away from normal. Hope im wrong.

Your hopes will be answered. It's been dysfunctional for nearly 3 decades. The level of dysfunction is increasing.

Boom bust all the way

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

Your hopes will be answered. It's been dysfunctional for nearly 3 decades. The level of dysfunction is increasing.

Boom bust all the way

There may be small corrections. But IMO the only thing that would lead to any substantive change in the dynamics would be a mass withdrawal from Ireland of MNCs. And although many are highly conscious of the costs of doing business here (my own MNC revisits the Ireland salary uplift annually, and I know that there are grumblings at board level about it) they are not going anywhere any time soon

fliball123

combat14 wrote: »

seems as if supply has floored with covid lockdowns while at the same time the only houses available are being snapped up within two weeks without even being seen by buyers.... who appear to be willing to pay any price...

will be interesting to see what happens when the market returns to 'normal' and we get a glimpse of how many cant repay their mortgage after a year of lockdowns, how many zombie businesses close, how many jobs are created and lost and what the true migration and house supply numbers are... and what the government intends to do to our taxes to repay the covid billions and balance the budget again, hard to tell at the moment..

on a seperate note great to hear pharma and it are booming, they now make up over half of our exports ..growing approx 15% last year .. lets hope we are not overly reliant on any sector going forward .. when have we seen that before?!

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse