2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

Nonsense.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

The number of houses for sale on MyHome had never been above 25k or below 20k between the period of 2014 and Q4 2019. In the last 12 months it's fallen from 20k to 11.8k. It is not hard to know if COVID made things worse.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Nonsense.

That is around the time where property started to disappear from Myhome.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

The number of houses for sale on MyHome had never been above 25k or below 20k between the period of 2014 and Q4 2019. In the last 12 months it's fallen from 20k to 11.8k. It is not hard to know if COVID made things worse.

It was up at 22k in Oct/Nov in 2019 this is when it started going down.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

It was up at 22k in Oct/Nov in 2019 this is when it started going down.

It dropped to c.20k in December 2019. There is always a drop in December as fewer people list houses in that month. December 2019 was particularly bad. The MyHome report said people were just holding off in December awaiting clarity from Brexit and expected a sharp bounce back in listings.

The drop in December brought numbers back exactly in line where the supply (red line) had been at points in 2016 and 2018, i.e. not that much of an aberration based on the recent past. COVID-19 then caused it to drop to 11.8k. 59% of it's lowest point in the past decade. Your argument that COVID-19 has not impacted the supply of housing in Ireland is easily the most absurd suggestion so far in my 6 months following this thread.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

It dropped to c.20k in December 2019. There is always a drop in December as fewer people list houses in that month. December 2019 was particularly bad. The MyHome report said people were just holding off in December awaiting clarity from Brexit and expected a sharp bounce back in listings.

The drop in December brought numbers back exactly in line where the supply (red line) had been at points in 2016 and 2018, i.e. not that much of an aberration based on the recent past. COVID-19 then caused it to drop to 11.8k. 59% of it's lowest point in the past decade. Your argument that COVID-19 has not impacted the supply of housing in Ireland is easily the most absurd suggestion so far in my 6 months following this thread.

I'll second that, and I've been following for about 12 months.

awec

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

Whether or not supply trended downward in 2019, it is absolutely clear that covid has caused the enormous fall in supply that we have seen in 2020/21.

When construction has been shut for large periods, commencements non-existent and viewings not allowed, it's about as obvious as it can get.

bonkers

This is on myhome now on a property added today, first time i have seen that..



Description


Dear Valued Customer,

To view this property at the advertised time, please email us for a designated time slot and appointment confirmation.

If this time does not suit, we will be delighted to offer an alternative day/time.

Only 2 people from the same household can attend a viewing.

The health and wellbeing of you and our team is our No. 1 priority.

All of our properties are on view. If you wish to attend a viewing you must email or phone our office in advance at 0 to secure a 5 minute time slot to view the property, ensuring your safety and the safety of others.

Claw Hammer

Pussyhands wrote: »

Never get the thing about house prices being so cheap decades ago.

At the end of the day, house prices rise due to people being willing to pay more for them.

Back in the day a man worked and the woman stayed at home.

Then once women started working, more people had more money, so the rest had to go out working to afford it then.

If everyone out there was a single person bidder, prices would eventually crash.

That is a myth. Married men got higher pay than women or single men as well as more tax free allowances. Houses were not built to the same standard as modern times. There was no insulation, central heating or en-suite. Fitted kitchens were unknown. One socket to a room. Wooden single pane windows.

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country.

Agree, that's correct

Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

Pretty sure, Covid/WHF made it worst.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

It dropped to c.20k in December 2019. There is always a drop in December as fewer people list houses in that month. December 2019 was particularly bad. The MyHome report said people were just holding off in December awaiting clarity from Brexit and expected a sharp bounce back in listings.

The drop in December brought numbers back exactly in line where the supply (red line) had been at points in 2016 and 2018, i.e. not that much of an aberration based on the recent past. COVID-19 then caused it to drop to 11.8k. 59% of it's lowest point in the past decade. Your argument that COVID-19 has not impacted the supply of housing in Ireland is easily the most absurd suggestion so far in my 6 months following this thread.

Look I am not doubting that covid has helped with the reduction in supply but it was going down pre-covid now weather that was time of the year, brexit or something else I dont know and we will never know.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Agree, that's correct

Where are you getting this from?

jill_valentine

Claw Hammer wrote: »

That is a myth. Married men got higher pay than women or single men as well as more tax free allowances. Houses were not built to the same standard as modern times. There was no insulation, central heating or en-suite. Fitted kitchens were unknown. One socket to a room. Wooden single pane windows.

It also hasn't played out elsewhere. Off the top of my head, Norway has a higher proportion of female full time workers than we do and still has a higher rate of home ownership than we do. So clearly that's not the defining factor.

I would suggest instead that maybe one big influence was the shift in the 90s towards light industry and office commerce which meant we got access to a lot of GDP friendly work that paid well in the short term, but was quite a bit more precarious long term compared to established heavy industry work or agriculture. Retail work also became something done in short shifts juggled between people rather than a commonly unionised full time job somebody could do cradle to grave.

My aunts were able to buy homes based on shop and factory jobs in the 80s and early 90s, by the time I was working in the early 2000s a full 8 hour shift was a rarity in either because God forbid you'd pay for a full lunchbreak.

"Job Sharing" used to be considered a hallmark of how poor the economy was and now it's baked into basic business practice.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Look I am not doubting that covid has helped with the reduction in supply but it was going down pre-covid now weather that was time of the year, brexit or something else I dont know and we will never know.

To be fair, saying "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse" sounds very much like you are in fact doubting that Covid has impacted supply!

Daft don't seem to agree with you that supply was going down pre Covid. Quite the opposite in fact:

From Irish House Price Report Q1 2020

The transition from sharply rising prices in mid-2017 to slightly falling prices by early 2020 was a gradual one and related to ever-improving supply on the market, in particular of newly built family homes in the Greater Dublin Area.

Are there any sources (other than Marius) who agree with you that supply was falling pre Covid?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Where are you getting this from?

I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Look I am not doubting that covid has helped with the reduction in supply but it was going down pre-covid now weather that was time of the year, brexit or something else I dont know and we will never know.

It's one data point. There's plenty of example of sharp downs in one or two quarters followed by ups in the following quarters. You don't project trends in the way that you're suggesting. If you gave the graph to anyone who analyses trends for a living (I do) as at Q4 2019 and asked them to interpret the data. They'd say supply has been pretty stable over the previous 4 years, perhaps marginally increasing, however there's an unusual dip off in Q4 2019, lets explore that a bit further and try to understand it. I suspect that's what MyHome did and concluded it was to do with Brexit and were anticipating a quick reversion in the following quarters.

You would absolutely not conclude that there is a general trend of supply going down at Q4 2019.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.

I'll go with the daft report so.

timmyntc

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.

*ads

And the actual published statistics would prove you wrong - so your own data is incorrect.

Marius34

timmyntc wrote: »

*ads

And the actual published statistics would prove you wrong - so your own data is incorrect.

Yes, adds, I though we speak about supplies, in a matter for public sale? or what supplies you are looking for? if you speak about construction completion, yes than construction supplies was going up.

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm following myhome adds, and collecting some data for my own stats. Since November 2019 number of adds started to go down comparing on annual basis.

I was tracking this as well back then and there was a definite decreasing in the last quarter on myhome in 2019. As I say it could of been seasonal , it could of been Brexit looming large or a combo of both but what is sure is covid had not hit at that stage.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I'll go with the daft report so.

Does the daft report give the number of properties available?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

I'll go with the daft report so.

Daft and Myhome follows same pattern, you won't find information that Dec 2019 - March 2020 there were more properties for sale, than a year prior.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

It's one data point. There's plenty of example of sharp downs in one or two quarters followed by ups in the following quarters. You don't project trends in the way that you're suggesting. If you gave the graph to anyone who analyses trends for a living (I do) as at Q4 2019 and asked them to interpret the data. They'd say supply has been pretty stable over the previous 4 years, perhaps marginally increasing, however there's an unusual dip off in Q4 2019, lets explore that a bit further and try to understand it. I suspect that's what MyHome did and concluded it was to do with Brexit and were anticipating a quick reversion in the following quarters.

You would absolutely not conclude that there is a general trend of supply going down at Q4 2019.

Will you and schmittel read what I think it was that hit the numbers of property for sale in Q4 and I have already said that Covid hit supply hard there is no doubting this.

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

I was tracking this as well back then and there was a definite decreasing in the last quarter on myhome in 2019. As I say it could of been seasonal , it could of been Brexit looming large or a combo ov both but what is sure is covid had not hit at that stage.

Yes, it's seasonal, it reaches highest peak in beginning of October, lowest in January. But even if we take out seasonality, decrease of property for sale started from November 2019, comparing on annual basis.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Daft and Myhome follows same pattern, you won't find information that Dec 2019 - March 2020 there were more properties for sale, than a year prior.

In both quarters they talk of a trend of falling prices because of a trend of increasing supply. Whilst I can accept there maybe have been a one off monthly drop in December 2019 due to some unknown anomaly, the idea that this was the start of a shift in supply trending downwards to the point we are at today, possibly unrelated to Covid, is utter nonsense.

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, it's seasonal, it reaches highest peak in beginning of October, lowest in January. But even if we take out seasonality, decrease of property for sale started from November 2019, comparing on annual basis.

Well I reckon that Brexit could of had some impact here. But we will never know as Covid came in and blew everything out of the water.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

In both quarters they talk of a trend of falling prices because of a trend of increasing supply. Whilst I can accept there maybe have been a one off monthly drop in December 2019 due to some unknown anomaly, the idea that this was the start of a shift in supply trending downwards to the point we are at today, possibly unrelated to Covid, is utter nonsense.

I dont think I ever said that?? I said that the turn in the amount of supply started happening back in Q4 in 2019 so it had nothing to do with Covid as Covid hit in Feb. I have said covid has hit supply hard, but could Brexit not of been playing apart pre-covid, how prevalent would we have been talking about Brexit had covid not entered the mind space. The fact is that we will never know what way the numbers would of went had Covid not been a factor.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Well I reckon that Brexit could of had some impact here. But we will never know as Covid came in and blew everything out of the water.

Post1: "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse"

Post5: "Covid came in and blew everything out of the water."

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

Post1: "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse"

Post5: "Covid came in and blew everything out of the water."

It is hard to know unless you have you have a time machine and went back to 2019 and blow up Wuhan so the virus never escapes and then play it out with 2020 dealing with the big news story of Brexit looming large? Did you use a time machine?? can I have a go of it please??? Or maybe yourself from a different dimension where these factors are in play told you.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

I dont think I ever said that?? I said that the turn in the amount of supply started happening back in Q4 in 2019 so it had nothing to do with Covid as Covid hit in Feb. I have said covid has hit supply hard, but could Brexit not of been playing apart pre-covid, how prevalent would we have been talking about Brexit had covid not entered the mind space. The fact is that we will never know what way the numbers would of went had Covid not been a factor.

It certainly sounded like it to me, but no doubt I misunderstood what you were saying, again. My bad.