2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

In both quarters they talk of a trend of falling prices because of a trend of increasing supply. Whilst I can accept there maybe have been a one off monthly drop in December 2019 due to some unknown anomaly, the idea that this was the start of a shift in supply trending downwards to the point we are at today, possibly unrelated to Covid, is utter nonsense.

Here you go, it's not only myhome, same daft report you linked:
"The total number of properties
available to buy on March 1 was
nearly 19,900, the first time since
the start of the series in 2007 that
availability was below 20,000."

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

It is hard to know unless you have you have a time machine and went back to 2019 and blow up Wuhan so the virus never escapes and then play it out with 2020 dealing with the big news story of Brexit looming large? Did you use a time machine?? can I have a go of it please??? Or maybe yourself from a different dimension where these factors are in play told you.

This is an old trope on this forum - nobody knows that for certain; you don’t have a crystal ball (or time machine) in this case.

It’s most often used to try and undermine somebody whose opinion a poster doesn’t agree, or occasionally as in this case, to try and claim an opinion so far fetched might true, just because nobody can definitively say otherwise without a crystal ball or time machine. Classic clutching at straws to avoid simply say, yep, I see I didn’t really think that one through.

I have neither a crystal ball nor a time machine but I am 100% certain that Covid has negatively impacted supply. Anybody who thinks otherwise is living in dreamland, never mind a different dimension.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

It is hard to know unless you have you have a time machine and went back to 2019 and blow up Wuhan so the virus never escapes and then play it out with 2020 dealing with the big news story of Brexit looming large? Did you use a time machine?? can I have a go of it please??? Or maybe yourself from a different dimension where these factors are in play told you.

Final post on it, as I hate to dominate the thread on something stupid. I'm only doing it as you are the first person to call people out when they say things that you feel aren't based in fact.

I took the time to download the stats. Take a look at those numbers, and ask yourself, am I being reasonable to suggest that the figures in 2020/2021 are not the aberration and in fact it was Q4 2019 where this "downward trend" became evident. I don't think you need a masters in statistics to answer that one.

Q4 2016 20,875
Q4 2017 18,024
Q4 2018 21,700
Q4 2019 19,928
Q4 2020 14,390
Q1 2021 11,800

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

This is an old trope on this forum - nobody knows that for certain; you don’t have a crystal ball (or time machine) in this case.

It’s most often used to try and undermine somebody whose opinion a poster doesn’t agree, or occasionally as in this case, to try and claim an opinion so far fetched might true, just because nobody can definitively say otherwise without a crystal ball or time machine. Classic clutching at straws to avoid simply say, yep, I see I didn’t really think that one through.

I have neither a crystal ball nor a time machine but I am 100% certain that Covid has negatively impacted supply. Anybody who thinks otherwise is living in dreamland, never mind a different dimension.

Absence of proof doesn't equate to proof of absence and agree plenty people get slapped with this schtick around here

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

There may be small corrections. But IMO the only thing that would lead to any substantive change in the dynamics would be a mass withdrawal from Ireland of MNCs. And although many are highly conscious of the costs of doing business here (my own MNC revisits the Ireland salary uplift annually, and I know that there are grumblings at board level about it) they are not going anywhere any time soon

The last crash was not caused by mass withdrawal of mnc. There are plenty of other risks there

PropQueries

For those hoping that interest rates won’t rise in the near future as “we’re all in this together”, there was an interesting opinion piece in Bloomberg yesterday titled: “The ECB's Claims of Unity Are Woefully Misleading”

“There’s growing pressure to scale back the central bank's bond purchases. So European yields are likely to rise, sooner and faster than the ECB wants.”

I think it’s important as a big factor underpinning the current future predicted value of property in Ireland is that interest rates will remain at their current low levels for many years yet. There is a better than evens chance that they could rise before the year is out IMO

Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/the-ecb-s-claims-of-unity-on-bond-buying-are-woefully-misleading?srnd=opinion

Pussyhands

PropQueries wrote: »

For those hoping that interest rates won’t rise in the near future as “we’re all in this together”, there was an interesting opinion piece in Bloomberg yesterday titled: “The ECB's Claims of Unity Are Woefully Misleading”

“There’s growing pressure to scale back the central bank's bond purchases. So European yields are likely to rise, sooner and faster than the ECB wants.”

I think it’s important as a big factor underpinning the current future predicted value of property in Ireland is that interest rates will remain at their current low levels for many years yet. There is a better than evens chance that they could rise before the year is out IMO

Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/the-ecb-s-claims-of-unity-on-bond-buying-are-woefully-misleading?srnd=opinion

The rates didn't rise in a decade. No chance of it imo.

And if they do, they're not going to go up more than 2018 levels.

Marius34

DataDude wrote: »

Final post on it, as I hate to dominate the thread on something stupid. I'm only doing it as you are the first person to call people out when they say things that you feel aren't based in fact.

I took the time to download the stats. Take a look at those numbers, and ask yourself, am I being reasonable to suggest that the figures in 2020/2021 are not the aberration and in fact it was Q4 2019 where this "downward trend" became evident. I don't think you need a masters in statistics to answer that one.

Q4 2016 20,875
Q4 2017 18,024
Q4 2018 21,700
Q4 2019 19,928
Q4 2020 14,390
Q1 2021 11,800

It's not difficult to see that after some increase of property for sale in 2018 H2/2019 H1, it followed by downwards trend from 2019 Q4.
Though I believe that Covid was the major player for further decrease since announcement of lockdown in 2020.

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

For those hoping that interest rates won’t rise in the near future as “we’re all in this together”, there was an interesting opinion piece in Bloomberg yesterday titled: “The ECB's Claims of Unity Are Woefully Misleading”

“There’s growing pressure to scale back the central bank's bond purchases. So European yields are likely to rise, sooner and faster than the ECB wants.”

I think it’s important as a big factor underpinning the current future predicted value of property in Ireland is that interest rates will remain at their current low levels for many years yet. There is a better than evens chance that they could rise before the year is out IMO

Link to article in Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/the-ecb-s-claims-of-unity-on-bond-buying-are-woefully-misleading?srnd=opinion

No wories people in Ireland saved about 11 billions.
They will buy houses for cash at any price .
No matter that each one saved only 4K
Just because they did not take 1500 euros loan from credit union for holiday in Spain.

Stark

Deleted User wrote: »

No wories people in Ireland saved about 11 billions.
They will buy houses for cash at any price .
No matter that each one saved only 4K
Just because they did not take 1500 euros loan from credit union for holiday in Spain.

This I wondered about.

I think it's one of the many tricks estate agents use to instil fear and panic buying. Using scary phrases like "war chests" to describe the extra savings people made during lockdown. Doesn't explain the crazy bids unless people were able to save twice their annual gross salary in the space of a year.

Stark

Stark wrote: »

This I wondered about.

I think it's one of the many tricks estate agents use to instil fear and panic buying. Using scary phrases like "war chests" to describe the extra savings people made during lockdown. Doesn't explain the crazy bids unless people were able to save twice their annual gross salary in the space of a year.

Estate agents earn money telling people lies.That is the way they earn money.

Pussyhands

Just looking at the list of properties I tracked when looking for a place to rent in Dublin over 7 years ago.

Most expensive of 9 was a double ensuite for 425 per month

Cheapest was a large single room at 275 per month.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

This is an old trope on this forum - nobody knows that for certain; you don’t have a crystal ball (or time machine) in this case.

It’s most often used to try and undermine somebody whose opinion a poster doesn’t agree, or occasionally as in this case, to try and claim an opinion so far fetched might true, just because nobody can definitively say otherwise without a crystal ball or time machine. Classic clutching at straws to avoid simply say, yep, I see I didn’t really think that one through.

I have neither a crystal ball nor a time machine but I am 100% certain that Covid has negatively impacted supply. Anybody who thinks otherwise is living in dreamland, never mind a different dimension.

I have said Covid impacted supply numerous times . I am pointing out that we could of had a supply problem due to Brexit even if Covid had never existed and I contend that you would of had to have super powers to know the trajectory of property prices if Covid was not here...That is all your the one talking absolute garbage. Its been proven that there was a slowdown in supply Q4 of 2019 to which you said "Rubbish". Sorry remind me was Covid an issue in Q3 2019? NO

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

Final post on it, as I hate to dominate the thread on something stupid. I'm only doing it as you are the first person to call people out when they say things that you feel aren't based in fact.

I took the time to download the stats. Take a look at those numbers, and ask yourself, am I being reasonable to suggest that the figures in 2020/2021 are not the aberration and in fact it was Q4 2019 where this "downward trend" became evident. I don't think you need a masters in statistics to answer that one.

Q4 2016 20,875
Q4 2017 18,024
Q4 2018 21,700
Q4 2019 19,928
Q4 2020 14,390
Q1 2021 11,800

Jesus Christ for the last god damn time I am not arguing that Covid didnt have an inpact on the supply of property I am saying there could of been an impact had Brexit been given center stage and Covid was not here, we dont know to what extent supply could of dried up under those conditions..

Today property market reminds me pub at 5AM were is about 20 drunk guys fighting for 1 bottle of whiskey left on shelve.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

I have said Covid impacted supply numerous times . I am pointing out that we could of had a supply problem due to Brexit even if Covid had never existed and I contend that you would of had to have super powers to know otherwise or to know the tragectory of property prices if Covid was not here...That is all your the one talking absolute garbage. Its been proven that there was a slowdown in supply Q3 of 2019 to which you said "Rubbish". Your full of it.

Fair enough, if you're saying you now accept that Covid has impacted supply then presumably you'll accept that your post saying "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse" was in fact nonsense as I posted.

Everything else since then is just silliness, and apologies to others for derailment.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Fair enough, if you're saying you now accept that Covid has impacted supply then presumably you'll accept that your post saying "Its hard to know if Covid made this worse" was in fact nonsense as I posted.

Everything else since then is just silliness, and apologies to others for derailment.

Did I ever say anything else. I have said it now maybe half a dozen times today alone. I am saying had Brexit been dominating the psyche where Covid is currently for the year of 2020 till it passed at the end of last year it could of had a similar effect on supply even if Covid never happened. I dont know about you but 2018/2019 all I was hearing was a sh1t load of talk about how Brexit was going impact Ireland

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Did I ever say anything else. I have said it now maybe half a dozen times today alone. I am saying had Brexit been dominating the psyche where Covid is currently for the year of 2020 till it passed it could of had a similar effect on supply.

Yes.

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry but supply was coming off stream from back in Dec 2019 even before Covid entered the country. Its hard to know if Covid made this worse

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Yes.

and I contend if Covid was not here we could of ended up with the simular supply issue. This is different than saying Covid did not have an effect on supply.

Hubertj

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

fliball123

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

I reckon the hardship a bank has to go through to try and repossess a family home would have a big bearing in this number.

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

This is normal same as rising savings.
People not sure about the future.
But at the moment today is the best time sell property.

standardg60

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

Doubt you'd need to look too much further than a burgeoning rental market.


Thanks for changing the subject btw

Hubertj

standardg60 wrote: »

Doubt you'd need to look too much further than a burgeoning rental market.


Thanks for changing the subject btw

Good point. Didn’t think of that.

Skipped the last few pages....

laurah591

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is normal same as rising savings.
People not sure about the future.
But at the moment today is the best time sell property.

We are selling our house in a commuter town around dublin and moving west... but now thinking of walking away from sale even though offer on our house is very good because absolutely no supply where we want to go and the idea of renting for 18months + is very unappealing

standardg60

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Keep in mind developers chose not to bring 5% of new property onto the market in 2019 because they thought the market prices wouldn't be achieved

The construction industry has long been a cabal here, controlling supply, directing Pub/Priv partnerships to their benefit, and divvying up land between themselves to avoid competition, while lobbying the state for vat reductions and subsidies.

MacronvFrugals

standardg60 wrote: »

The construction industry has long been a cabal here, controlling supply, directing Pub/Priv partnerships to their benefit, and divvying up land between themselves to avoid competition, while lobbying the state for vat reductions and subsidies.

Also they moaned for long enough about "slow planning" and the state allowed them to write the procedures from scratch, a cabal is appropriate language in this case!

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/which-way-are-house-prices-heading-depends-on-the-data-1.4523010?mode=amp

Read this earlier. What I found interesting was that the number of 2nd hand homes coming to market has been declining YoY for the last decade. I wonder how this correlates to increases in vacant property in some areas and what other factors drive this continued reduction

IMO the biggest factor in this is the removal of bridging loans from the market, and whatever about the vacancies, the decline in turnover of second hand stock contributes massively to the fact that we have the highest rates of underoccupancy in Europe.

What we need with far greater urgency than 30/40/50k new builds a year is a giant game of musical chairs in the existing stock. The solutions to get this ball rolling are so maddeningly obvious I just cant understand why govt don't implement them.

If I was minister my very first act would be to scrap shared equity scheme and take the complete opposite path - introduce state backed bridging loans for up to 70% of the value of the equity in your house.

There are tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people, sitting happily in their fully paid off houses who would quite like to move if it was made easy for them. Currently the biggest barrier is finance. They are too old to get mortgages, so they are left with the option of trying to sell and buy and one go, and if the chain collapses, end up trying to find a rental, what do they do with a lifetime of stuff etc. They read the news about the current state of the market and think, no thanks, that sounds like a nightmare, I am better off staying put.

Bridging loans would solve these problems. Govt can borrow at almost zero, but they could charge 3.5% interest rolled up. Use the profits to build developments targeted specifically for these downsizers (exempt them Part 5 etc) in order to encourage more to trade down and free up even more stock of family homes.

This will have an immediate positive effect on supply without pushing up the debts of the FTB generation and the risks of the taxpayer.

I have posted on this before and posed the question - what am I missing? to me it is such an obvious solution and so clearly better than shared equity schemes etc, that I just cannot understand why it has not been done.

And for the avoidance of doubt, I am emphatically not talking about hounding old people out of their homes. Quite the opposite. I am talking about making it as simple as possible to move if they want to, but only if they want to.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

IMO the biggest factor in this is the removal of bridging loans from the market, and whatever about the vacancies, the decline in turnover of second hand stock contributes massively to the fact that we have the highest rates of underoccupancy in Europe.

What we need with far greater urgency than 30/40/50k new builds a year is a giant game of musical chairs in the existing stock. The solutions to get this ball rolling are so maddeningly obvious I just cant understand why govt don't implement them.

If I was minister my very first act would be to scrap shared equity scheme and take the complete opposite path - introduce state backed bridging loans for up to 70% of the value of the equity in your house.

There are tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people, sitting happily in their fully paid off houses who would quite like to move if it was made easy for them. Currently the biggest barrier is finance. They are too old to get mortgages, so they are left with the option of trying to sell and buy and one go, and if the chain collapses, end up trying to find a rental, what do they do with a lifetime of stuff etc. They read the news about the current state of the market and think, no thanks, that sounds like a nightmare, I am better off staying put.

Bridging loans would solve these problems. Govt can borrow at almost zero, but they could charge 3.5% interest rolled up. Use the profits to build developments targeted specifically for these downsizers (exempt them Part 5 etc) in order to encourage more to trade down and free up even more stock of family homes.

This will have an immediate positive effect on supply without pushing up the debts of the FTB generation and the risks of the taxpayer.

I have posted on this before and posed the question - what am I missing? to me it is such an obvious solution and so clearly better than shared equity schemes etc, that I just cannot understand why it has not been done.

And for the avoidance of doubt, I am emphatically not talking about hounding old people out of their homes. Quite the opposite. I am talking about making it as simple as possible to move if they want to, but only if they want to.

Very good point. I think it would have to be done in parallel or after developments you refer are built. From my in laws experience they had great difficulty finding something suitable to downsize to and that prolonged the search.... and they had to sell first, then move,then rent, then buy, then move...

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Very good point. I think it would have to be done in parallel or after developments you refer are built. From my in laws experience they had great difficulty finding something suitable to downsize to and that prolonged the search.... and they had to sell first, then move,then rent, then buy, then move...

No doubt that to encourage downsizing in significant numbers new developments would be helpful, but why not start off with the bridging loans immediately?

I am not buying the idea that people cannot downsize because the properties they need to downsize to have not been built yet. They have been built, it's just that the entire market is clogged up in a giant negative feedback loop.

Introducing the finance to will turn that loop on its head. Early adopter downsizers will generate a positive feedback loop.

Plenty of empty nesters living in big family homes would be very happy to move to some of the newer apartments. Plenty of young couples in the newer apartments would be happy to move to the big family homes.

Both types of property currently exist, they are just occupied by the wrong people. This is what we need to change.

It could be started almost immediately and it would take very little to get that ball rolling.