2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

standardg60

KBH2020 wrote: »

We are looking in Dublin and I think what is happening currently is people who would normally be looking to buy a house in the 500-600k bracket are now making bids in the 400-500k bracket, likewise people in the 400-500k bracket are now looking in the 300-400k bracket and this is all because of the limited supply and the desperation to secure a property. I can't think of any other explanation as to how houses are getting offers so high above the asking price. I believe the majority of people normally max out their budget when buying a property to get the best property they can afford.

I read something last year that said the average deposit in Dublin was approx 85K for the past few years. I am not sure if this is massively skewed by people who have large inheritances rather than savings but I imagine a lot of people across the country do have large deposits, whether saved or inherited. Of course Covid has contributed greatly to savings for a lot of people who were in the market to buy.

It is mind boggling though. I have been saving since 2015, myself and partner living with my parents for 1.5 years (always planned to go for AIP Jan 2021), we have been saving majority of our income each month for this entire time, we worked very hard to get two promotions each..got the AIP we needed and now we feel we are priced out of the type of house we had hoped to buy. Extremely frustrating and difficult after the last year as well. There will be a lot of people locked out of the market completely because of this and I can't even imagine how they must feel.

I think bidding will calm a bit with supply and in person viewings but don't know when

That's a very plausible reading of the current market and i feel for your situation.
One thing in your post reminded me of a letter to the Readers Digest many years ago. The correspondent was telling of a letter they'd received from their bank agreeing to an increase to their credit card limit. It contained the following quote: 'please remember that this is a limit and not a target'.

Very few people follow this advice, hold tight.

Hubertj

standardg60 wrote: »

It went straight up after the feature in the Irish Times, which are just promotions nowadays.
I remembers when the 'we say' bit always alluded to a genuine negative of the featured property, amazing what a bit of threatened litigation achieves!

I vaguely remember the “we say” bit..... are you saying they dropped that due to legal action, or threat of?!?

PropQueries

Looks like the mindset changeover of our city from retail and office use to residential use has started with Hammerson quadrupling the amount of residential space planned for their site at the Carlton cinema on O’Connell Street.

Makes sense. I would guess many of the owners of the buildings in the city will or probably have already started this conversion, especially as many of them are probably owned by foreign funds at this stage.

Just from a simple maths perspective. Convert the above retail space to residential and lease them to the council and they can add millions of euro to the value of their properties at very little cost.

For example, spend c. €200k converting three floors to high-end 10 one bed apartments, lease them to the council at €1,000 a month and the value of a regular city centre property jumps by €2 million at a yield of 5%.

Win win for all involved and I reckon thousands of these will be entering the market in the city centre in the next 12 months without anyone noticing IMO

Link to article in The Sunday Times here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hammerson-deals-blow-retail-dublin-central-site-gqkl3qc2v

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-lake-house-toormore-goleen-cork/4492511

I think This is lovely in every way. Very nice house and amazing scenery. Would be nice to wake up to that view every morning, well in the summer at least!

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-lake-house-toormore-goleen-cork/4492511

I think This is lovely in every way. Very nice house and amazing scenery. Would be nice to wake up to that view every morning, well in the summer at least!

The other half sent me this the other day, gorgeous house, lovely views.

Will sell quickly I imagine

Edit; I should add, we are from that direction, it's quite isolated, you'd want to be looking for that rural lifestyle

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Just a thought
Does social housing get stigmatised by the few noisy over the many decent estates and even within the few noisy estates it's the very few households responsible for the vast majority of trouble

Bad apples and empty vessels and all that wisdom etc

That would be the case based on my own experiences growing up in Dublin during the 90s. There were 2 social housing estates close to where I lived - 1 had a bad reputation based in the behaviour of 3-4 families, the other had no reputation at all.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I think This is lovely in every way. Very nice house and amazing scenery. Would be nice to wake up to that view every morning, well in the summer at least!

Was that house on one of Dermot Bannons programs, not room to improve, but a program moreso on innovative design

treenytru

Villa05 wrote: »

Was that house on one of Dermot Bannons programs, not room to improve, but a program moreso on innovative design

Same area but looks like different house

https://www.irishexaminer.com/property/homeandoutdoors/arid-40069979.html

Seeds

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

yagan

Seeds wrote: »

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

I do wonder if Covid will have brought forward a few years of executor sales?

Plus if I'd been living isolated as an elderly during this last year I'd be seriously thinking about moving to some kind of assisted living arrangement where you could have your own front door but with help on call.

TheSheriff

Seeds wrote: »

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

I got a PM last May (2020) telling me I was a horrible person as I openly stated we are in a better place financially because of covid.

I expect things to stagnate for the next few years, there is huge demand and contrary to what some say, we have a well documented housing crisis in areas people want to live.

Expect houses which are commutable to cities, on a train, luas or dart and with SPACE to comfortably work at home a few days per week to slightly increase. This is where future demand will orientate towards IMO.

The apartments in the city centre could suffer falls, those high earners in tech etc. are most likely heading to the city suburbs, rather than the beaches of wexford.

Disclaimer: everyone has been wrong so far

PropQueries

Seeds wrote: »

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

My opinion would be that once the state pulls back on their house purchases by mid year (due to no money), the public will see there is no private sector demand for any of the new builds or executor sales entering the market.

How do I know this? Common sense. Google news stories over the past 3 years of queues of people looking to buy or rent and you will find very very very few. A couple of small estate agent rent-a-queue stories published but that’s it.

There’s no demand in my opinion and covid has done a very good job of covering up this lack of demand and once covid is over, it will be clear for all to see IMO

Lots and lots of “anecdotal” news stories of a shortage of housing but everyone who wants a home can already have a home of their own anywhere in the state (incl. South Dublin) and once the state is forced to pull back from their interference and potential sellers realise that if a private person doesn’t buy or rent their house, the state won’t buy or rent it either, it’s game over and prices and rents will plummet IMO

optogirl

PropQueries wrote: »

My opinion would be that once the state pulls back on their house purchases by mid year (due to no money), the public will see there is no private sector demand for any of the new builds or executor sales entering the market.

How do I know this? Common sense. Google news stories over the past 3 years of queues of people looking to buy or rent and you will find very very very few. A couple of small estate agent rent-a-queue stories published but that’s it.

There’s no demand in my opinion and covid has done a very good job of covering up this lack of demand and once covid is over, it will be clear for all to see IMO

Lots and lots of “anecdotal” news stories of a shortage of housing but everyone who wants a home can already have a home of their own anywhere in the state (incl. South Dublin) and once the state is forced to pull back from their interference and potential sellers realise that if a private person doesn’t buy or rent their house, the state won’t buy or rent it either, it’s game over and prices and rents will plummet IMO

No demand? Ok.

Shelga

If demand for office space falls by 30-50%, can't some office space be re-zoned and converted into apartments? And therefore create tonnes of potential new residential space that previously hadn't been considered as available.

Or am I massively oversimplifying...?

Hubertj

Seeds wrote: »

How does everyone think the Country reopening will affect prices?

Will we see a lot more house come on the market?

Will we start to see financial repercussions from covid. From my point of view, I am better off financially now then this time last year.
I just cant help thinking that we will see some negative effects once the government stops the handouts.

I think supply will definitely improve as more people will put their property on the market to sell. However there looks like there will be a shortfall in new builds due to the restrictions which have been in place.
I can see prices increasing and decreasing in different parts of the country and in different segments.
You’ll get some really idiotic responses to your question. Do your own research and make your own decisions.

PropQueries

optogirl wrote: »

No demand? Ok.

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/over-75-of-new-social-homes-are-bought-or-leased-from-builders-48281ee5

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/over-75-of-new-social-homes-are-bought-or-leased-from-builders-48281ee5

So no more social housing then ? You’d imagine the state aren’t doing this for the crack, where do the people who get these houses end up then?

Seeds

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here:

75 percent. This disgusts me. I need to quit my job and get on the dole. Why bother.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

So no more social housing then ? You’d imagine the state aren’t doing this for the crack, where do the people who get these houses end up then?

You’d be very surprised how imaginative the state will get when the choice is between their own pay and pensions being cut or letting property owners take the hit.

My bet is on massive increases in vacant property taxes and other “incentives” that won’t cost the state anything this year to make sure these properties re-enter the market ASAP IMO

How far away is that next election again?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/over-75-of-new-social-homes-are-bought-or-leased-from-builders-48281ee5

Here's PropQueries spreading misinformation again. Either you are deliberately doing this at this stage or you do not understand what you are reading.

Social housing makes up ~10% of new private developments. ~90% of houses in new developments are bought on the private market by individuals. The article is pointing out that 75% of social housing is coming from the enforced 10% ring-fencing imposed on developers.

"No demand". Total bull****. There is no other way of putting it.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

My opinion would be that once the state pulls back on their house purchases by mid year (due to no money), the public will see there is no private sector demand for any of the new builds or executor sales entering the market.

How do I know this? Common sense. Google news stories over the past 3 years of queues of people looking to buy or rent and you will find very very very few. A couple of small estate agent rent-a-queue stories published but that’s it.

There’s no demand in my opinion and covid has done a very good job of covering up this lack of demand and once covid is over, it will be clear for all to see IMO

Lots and lots of “anecdotal” news stories of a shortage of housing but everyone who wants a home can already have a home of their own anywhere in the state (incl. South Dublin) and once the state is forced to pull back from their interference and potential sellers realise that if a private person doesn’t buy or rent their house, the state won’t buy or rent it either, it’s game over and prices and rents will plummet IMO

Why on earth would there be news stories for queues to buy houses?

When did you last buy a house? Have you been involved in buying a new one the past few years? If you go back on this forum you will find countless examples of people having to queue to buy. It was absolutely a thing (the norm in popular areas) until very recently (just before covid).

awec

Seeds wrote: »

75 percent. This disgusts me. I need to quit my job and get on the dole. Why bother.

Judging by your other thread you are a single person so you can do this and you might get a social house in about 15 years.

Podge10

From reading this thread and other media outlets there appears to be a spike in house prices since the start of the year. This is obviously driven by lack of supply.

However surely these has been a lack of supply through 2020 also. So do people think it’s been a cumulative effect over the last 6 to 12 months. Or is it more likely to be associated with strict level 5 since xmas and no house viewings etc? Naturally house prices tend to drift up annually. But there seems to be a lot of anecdotal examples of similar houses going for a lot more now than even in December last year.

awec

awec wrote: »

Here's PropQueries spreading misinformation again. Either you are deliberately doing this at this stage or you do not understand what you are reading.

Social housing makes up ~10% of new private developments. ~90% of houses in new developments are bought on the private market by individuals. The article is pointing out that 75% of social housing is coming from the enforced 10% ring-fencing imposed on developers.

"No demand". Total bull****. There is no other way of putting it.

No.
10% has to be set aside for social housing. There is nothing stopping the council or any housing charity from buying houses and renting them to people on the list.
Which they do, regularly.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Here's PropQueries spreading misinformation again. Either you are deliberately doing this at this stage or you do not understand what you are reading.

Social housing makes up ~10% of new private developments. ~90% of houses in new developments are bought on the private market by individuals. The article is pointing out that 75% of social housing is coming from the enforced 10% ring-fencing imposed on developers.

"No demand". Total bull****. There is no other way of putting it.

So we built c. 50,000 new units last year as the state “delivered” c. 5,000 new built social housing units last year...

That’s 10% according to your figure. Or even take the 75% figure. That still brings it to over 40,000 new built units last year.

Unless the state is buying/leasing a significantly bigger percentage than 10%?

PropQueries

And HAP is doubling to c. €1 billion this year. So, at an average rent of €20,000 per residential unit, that will mean the state will be renting an “additional” 25,000 properties this year alone.

Between buying, leasing and renting, doesn’t it look like the state is the property market on the demand side right now?

liam7831

I was talking to an auctioneer two weeks ago in Cork and he thinks once viewings open up prices and demand will rise further.
Once people on the payment get back to work and mortgage approval again they will add to the demand.

combat14

liam7831 wrote: »

I was talking to an auctioneer two weeks ago in Cork and he thinks once viewings open up prices and demand will rise further.
Once people on the payment get back to work and mortgage approval again they will add to the demand.

thats if businesses open up - alot of zombie companies will close too

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the SBP today, “Over 75% of new social homes are bought or leased from builders”.

Therefore, at the moment, the state is the demand. So once their demand stops, that leaves all the new builds, ex-AirBnB, vacant properties and executor sales entirely reliant on the private market.

So there’s only two questions. When will the state stop buying, leasing, renting and is there enough private demand to meet the excess supply once they do leave the market?

There’s only two areas the government can cut revenue without cutting public sector salaries. Welfare and housing. Welfare can’t be cut. That only leaves the housing budget IMO.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/over-75-of-new-social-homes-are-bought-or-leased-from-builders-48281ee5

Did you read the article, or only the tiny section that's available this side of the paywall?

If you did read the article, you definitely didn't understand it.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Did you read the article, or only the tiny section that's available this side of the paywall?

If you did read the article, you definitely didn't understand it.

So you believe the state isn’t buying or leasing any more than the 10% of new build units they’re entitled to?

If you do, I can’t argue your point as you’re wrong IMO

If you do believe the state is buying or leasing more than the 10% they’re entitled to (even 11%), then you must agree that the state is using taxpayers money to outbid and drive up the price for private buyers for any new built properties they buy or lease from developers in excess of the 10% the state is entitled to IMO

The state can’t get their hands on any new build properties above their 10% allocation without outbidding private buyers in the marketplace with their own tax money IMO