2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

So you believe the state isn’t buying or leasing any more than the 10% of new build units they’re entitled to?

If you do, I can’t argue your point as you’re wrong IMO

If you do believe the state is buying or leasing more than the 10% they’re entitled to (even 11%), then you must agree that the state is using taxpayers money to outbid and drive up the price for private buyers for any new built properties they buy or lease from developers in excess of the 10% the state is entitled to IMO

The state can’t get their hands on any new build properties above their 10% allocation without outbidding private buyers in the marketplace with their own tax money IMO

You didn't answer my question.

Did you or did you not read the full article?

This is a very important question for you to answer, as you have been infracted previously for misrepresenting the contents of an article.

MacronvFrugals

I think we’re confusing turnkeys and leasing with Part V requirements, Props is 100% right here the state is buying more than the 10% part V I know because my sister was outbid by DCC on a second hand house.

Last year alone 8000 houses were acquired through these lease deals

Killian Woods said today he had a developer saying these lease deals are “like a government bond”

It’s hilarious to suggest the state is not a big player especially in Dublin, as Dr Dáithí Downey from DCC said HAP will cost as much as building a new Children’s hospital annually within 4 years

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

It’s hilarious to suggest the state is not a big player especially in Dublin, as Dr Dáithí Downey from DCC said HAP will cost as much as building a new Children’s hospital annually within 4 years

It really is shocking mismanagement/cronyism.

What's the point in putting in mortgage rules to protect citizens, banks and the taxpayer from property bubbles when taxpayers money is being used to prop up the bubble anyway

We are in an endless loop of scrwe ups when it comes to property. No matter what measure is put in place to protect the state a workaround is found and off we go again

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

It really is shocking mismanagement/cronyism.

What's the point in putting in mortgage rules to protect citizens, banks and the taxpayer from property bubbles when taxpayers money is being used to prop up the bubble anyway

We are in an endless loop of scrwe ups when it comes to property. No matter what measure is put in place to protect the state a workaround is found and off we go again

It’s down to public sector incompetence. If you give an idiot a blank cheque money gets pi*sed away. It’s just a question of where it gets wasted. Did you see the programme on the OPW the other night? It’s about people not having the competence to do their jobs. Knock on impact is there is no accountability. It doesn’t matter who is in government,you can have the best intentions and the best policy and unlimited budget but if you only have morons to execute....

standardg60

Villa05 wrote: »

It really is shocking mismanagement/cronyism.

What's the point in putting in mortgage rules to protect citizens, banks and the taxpayer from property bubbles when taxpayers money is being used to prop up the bubble anyway

We are in an endless loop of scrwe ups when it comes to property. No matter what measure is put in place to protect the state a workaround is found and off we go again

We only have ourselves to blame. Our political system is based entirely on the pursuit of power and retention of same. The current Government policy on housing is entirely based on the fact that the party which indulged in the biggest fantasy regarding housing provision got the most votes. It is simply the case that today political power is gained by following whatever trend is occupying the mind of the social media class.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s down to public sector incompetence. If you give an idiot a blank cheque money gets pi*sed away. It’s just a question of where it gets wasted. Did you see the programme on the OPW the other night? It’s about people not having the competence to do their jobs. Knock on impact is there is no accountability. It doesn’t matter who is in government,you can have the best intentions and the best policy and unlimited budget but if you only have morons to execute....

What is the solution? It seems like all TDs, councillors, public servants etc are as bad as each other when it comes to waste. So ballot box is not the answer. There is nobody to vote for who will fix it. It's immensely frustrating as a lot of the waste appears to relatively easy to stop if anybody actually gave a damn.

Only solution I can think of that TDs are likely to enact is a bonus paid for money saved, administered by the Public Accounts Committee - performance related pay linked to money saved, split between members of PAC and the relevant ministers.

Eg if cost per head of HAP accommodation goes down, Darragh O'Brien gets a fat cheque.

Of course the biggest problem is nobody can be fired. Fix that and then we might get somewhere fixing the waste.

Read an article about the OPW programme, but didn't see it thankfully, not sure my blood pressure could handle it.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

What is the solution? It seems like all TDs, councillors, public servants etc are as bad as each other when it comes to waste. So ballot box is not the answer. There is nobody to vote for who will fix it. It's immensely frustrating as a lot of the waste appears to relatively easy to stop if anybody actually gave a damn.

Only solution I can think of that TDs are likely to enact is a bonus paid for money saved, administered by the Public Accounts Committee - performance related pay linked to money saved, split between members of PAC and the relevant ministers.

Eg if cost per head of HAP accommodation goes down, Darragh O'Brien gets a fat cheque.

Of course the biggest problem is nobody can be fired. Fix that and then we might get somewhere fixing the waste.

Read an article about the OPW programme, but didn't see it thankfully, not sure my blood pressure could handle it.

In parallel to a change in policy has to be reform in the provision of public services. That’s a very difficult task. Do you see any political parties in this country undertaking such an exercise? Would populism stand for it?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

In parallel to a change in policy has to be reform in the provision of public services. That’s a very difficult task. Do you see any political parties in this country undertaking such an exercise? Would populism stand for it?

No chance!

We need a common sense party who says forget left/right ideology, climate change, United Ireland and all the other headline grabbers for now, we urgently need a root and branch reform of the culture and the way things are done in the public sector etc etc. After we have done that we can worry about the above.

But they wouldn't get any votes, so it is a bit pointless!

standardg60

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s down to public sector incompetence. If you give an idiot a blank cheque money gets pi*sed away. It’s just a question of where it gets wasted. Did you see the programme on the OPW the other night? It’s about people not having the competence to do their jobs. Knock on impact is there is no accountability. It doesn’t matter who is in government,you can have the best intentions and the best policy and unlimited budget but if you only have morons to execute....

Ireland has the largest rate of union membership in it's public sector than any other country in the EU. This is the reason it is systematically dysfunctional.

One instance, how is it considered normal that the Minister for education is compelled to address annual teacher union congresses?

Why are they considered 'stakeholders'?

They are nothing more than vested interests concerned with their own raison d'etre.

Hubertj

standardg60 wrote: »

Ireland has the largest rate of union membership in it's public sector than any other country in the EU. This is the reason it is systematically dysfunctional.

One instance, how is it considered normal that the Minister for education is compelled to address annual teacher union congresses?

Why are they considered 'stakeholders'?

They are nothing more than vested interests concerned with their own raison d'etre.

Well said. I didn’t know that about rate of union membership but makes sense when considering the level of disfunction. I think many of our “public servants” forget the purpose of being a public servant.

MacronvFrugals

I’m brought back to FGs 2011 manifesto - “The greatest reform to local government we’ve ever seen”

By that they meant Phil Hogan going in a with a double barrel and removing any teeth they have, now 10 years later leasing from developers at 2^ inflation linked rates is the MO

enricoh

Hubertj wrote: »

In parallel to a change in policy has to be reform in the provision of public services. That’s a very difficult task. Do you see any political parties in this country undertaking such an exercise? Would populism stand for it?

No chance, 1 in 3 workers work in the public sector when you include semi states and the 200k in the charity industry. It's a big voting block.

A lad I know was a skip driver around 10 years ago. He was collecting a big roll off skip from the local hospital and copped it was full of brand new beds still in the box. He went inside to tell them someone mucked up n eventually got talking to someone in the know. He was told they have a budget to spend and if they don't spend it next year it'd be cut! His boss flogged them to a nursing home. Around the same time people were protesting over cuts to hospital services and demanding more funding!

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

No chance!

We need a common sense party who says forget left/right ideology, climate change, United Ireland and all the other headline grabbers for now, we urgently need a root and branch reform of the culture and the way things are done in the public sector etc etc. After we have done that we can worry about the above.

But they wouldn't get any votes, so it is a bit pointless!

Wasn’t that the PD’s modus operandi? If Harney had been allowed to run the health service without interference, we wouldn’t have what is about to be the worst crisis to hit Ireland’s health care system since the beginning of the state from next year IMO

That’s where I get my theory that the housing budget must be cut. Even without our pre-covid debt problems, post-covid even bigger debt problems, pre-covid health care costs, post-covid bigger welfare burden (permanent unemployment will be higher), Biden’s proposed tax reforms potentially reducing forecasted tax revenues, our pension crisis etc. etc., the post-covid health care costs are going to balloon given the appointment/operations cancellations and the state is going to need to cut costs no matter what.

The housing budget is really the only one I can see where cuts can be made given that the welfare and healthcare budgets can only permanently increase due to the covid crisis IMO

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Wasn’t that the PD’s modus operandi? If Harney had been allowed to run the health service without interference, we wouldn’t have what is about to be the worst crisis to hit Ireland’s health care system since the beginning of the state from next year IMO

That’s where I get my theory that the housing budget must be cut. Even without our pre-covid debt problems, post-covid even bigger debt problems, pre-covid health care costs, post-covid bigger welfare burden (permanent unemployment will be higher), Biden’s proposed tax reforms potentially reducing forecasted tax revenues, our pension crisis etc. etc., the post-covid health care costs are going to balloon given the appointment/operations cancellations and the state is going to need to cut costs no matter what.

The housing budget is really the only one I can see where cuts can be made given that the welfare and healthcare budgets can only permanently increase due to the covid crisis IMO

Were you around for the last election? Housing will not be cut....

standardg60

TheSheriff wrote: »

Were you around for the last election? Housing will not be cut....

And there in a nutshell lies the problem

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Were you around for the last election? Housing will not be cut....

The same solution can be achieved at zero cost to the state while also drastically cutting the housing budget. It’s called a proper vacant property tax and given that Paschal recently acted to the shoe tax analogy on RTÉ in the exact same way as Cowen did to his painting in the gallery (and got the same type of apology), Paschal is obviously under the exact same extreme extreme pressure Cowen was at that time IMO

There’s only one way to increase supply without costing the state money it doesn’t have anymore. And that’s...

standardg60

PropQueries wrote: »

Wasn’t that the PD’s modus operandi? If Harney had been allowed to run the health service without interference, we wouldn’t have what is about to be the worst crisis to hit Ireland’s health care system since the beginning of the state from next year IMO

That’s where I get my theory that the housing budget must be cut. Even without our pre-covid debt problems, post-covid even bigger debt problems, pre-covid health care costs, post-covid bigger welfare burden (permanent unemployment will be higher), Biden’s proposed tax reforms potentially reducing forecasted tax revenues, our pension crisis etc. etc., the post-covid health care costs are going to balloon given the appointment/operations cancellations and the state is going to need to cut costs no matter what.

The housing budget is really the only one I can see where cuts can be made given that the welfare and healthcare budgets can only permanently increase due to the covid crisis IMO

Wasn't it the PD's who established the financial regulator?
They were no different to anyone else

mcsean2163

Any ideas when the state will slow down its house buying policy?

mcsean2163

L1011 wrote: »

You didn't answer my question.

Did you or did you not read the full article?

This is a very important question for you to answer, as you have been infracted previously for misrepresenting the contents of an article.

He may not have read the article but his point is valid.

Social housing data, released by the Department of Housing in response to a parliamentary question asked by Eoin Ó Broin, the Sinn Féin housing spokesman, showed 77 per cent of the 5,073 units delivered in 2020 were sourced from private developers.

20,676 new dwellings were built last year. That includes 4937 one offs with no social requirement.

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/construction/newdwellingcompletions/

15, 759 with social. 10% (1,575) allotted to state leaving approximately 3,500 from the magic fairy tree 🌲🧚🧚*♀️🧚*♂️

Mad_maxx

enricoh wrote: »

No chance, 1 in 3 workers work in the public sector when you include semi states and the 200k in the charity industry. It's a big voting block.

A lad I know was a skip driver around 10 years ago. He was collecting a big roll off skip from the local hospital and copped it was full of brand new beds still in the box. He went inside to tell them someone mucked up n eventually got talking to someone in the know. He was told they have a budget to spend and if they don't spend it next year it'd be cut! His boss flogged them to a nursing home. Around the same time people were protesting over cuts to hospital services and demanding more funding!

Plus RTE are extremely pro public sector, that kind of PR is hard to take on

PropQueries

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Any ideas when the state will slow down its house buying policy?

Well, next years budget is most likely being discussed now and any further lease, HAP agreements etc. signed between now and the end of the year will need to be also paid next year, so my bet is on mid-summer to start cutting back on all three i.e. buying, leasing, renting.

For example, John Moran of the LDA called for a mini-budget last week. John Moran’s opinion is actually respected in high up government circles.

And, Eoin Burke-Kennedy in the Irish Times said yesterday that: “And finally on vacant homes – seen by many as the low-hanging fruit in the equation – the Government gave it itself a modest target of retrieving 6,500 units via three schemes. So far it has delivered fewer than 1,400.”.

So, this low-hanging fruit must be very much on Paschal’s radar given all the additional post-covid costs e.g. welfare, health etc. that must be paid for over the next 5 years IMO

Link to John Moran article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/land-development-agency-chair-calls-for-mini-budget-to-protect-economy-1.4519913

Link to Eoin Burke-Kennedy article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-plan-to-tackle-ireland-s-housing-crisis-has-failed-1.4528364

Baby01032012

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Any ideas when the state will slow down its house buying policy?

Ah hem when it starts it’s building social housing policy which is never.

mcsean2163

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, next years budget is most likely being discussed now and any further lease, HAP agreements etc. signed between now and the end of the year will need to be also paid next year, so my bet is on mid-summer to start cutting back on all three i.e. buying, leasing, renting.

For example, John Moran of the LDA called for a mini-budget last week. John Moran’s opinion is actually respected in high up government circles.

And, Eoin Burke-Kennedy in the Irish Times said yesterday that: “And finally on vacant homes – seen by many as the low-hanging fruit in the equation – the Government gave it itself a modest target of retrieving 6,500 units via three schemes. So far it has delivered fewer than 1,400.”.

So, this low-hanging fruit must be very much on Paschal’s radar given all the additional post-covid costs e.g. welfare, health etc. that must be paid for over the next 5 years IMO

Link to John Moran article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/land-development-agency-chair-calls-for-mini-budget-to-protect-economy-1.4519913

Link to Eoin Burke-Kennedy article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-plan-to-tackle-ireland-s-housing-crisis-has-failed-1.4528364

John moran

The cost of borrowing now was very low, there was no point in not borrowing when it was needed, he said.

PropQueries

mcsean2163 wrote: »

John moran

The cost of borrowing now was very low, there was no point in not borrowing when it was needed, he said.

He has a good point if it reflected reality.

Unfortunately, Paschal knows the truth which was reported on Bloomberg a few weeks ago in an article:

“The ECB's Claims of Unity Are Woefully Misleading. There’s growing pressure to scale back the central bank's bond purchases. So European yields are likely to rise, sooner and faster than the ECB wants.“

In essence, Paschal knows that the “free” ECB money will stop sooner rather than later and that interest rates are most likely going to rise a lot sooner than many people believe and it explains his reaction to the FG shoe analogy on RTÉ last week. He’s stressed and like all finance ministers, he must keep up the pretence that all is ok until he no longer can.

As finance minister, he must be looking for cuts. Welfare can’t be cut. Health can’t be cut. The post 2011 public servants are getting more and more vocal on the pay difference between them and their pre 2011 work colleagues. There’s only one place to cut while also increasing supply at no cost to the state i.e. very strong sticks to get any vacant property back into use without costing the state money it really doesn’t have anymore IMO.

Link to Bloomberg article here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-31/the-ecb-s-claims-of-unity-on-bond-buying-are-woefully-misleading?srnd=opinion

Underground

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/thalassa-gleninagh-quay-ballyvaughan-clare/4492455

This is a strange setup. Amazing setting but I think the layout of the gaff would drive me mad.

bilbot79

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

Under Sinn Fein Housing would quickly cease to be 'the' issue and Irish Unity would be everything

PropQueries

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

I wonder has anybody studied the psychological impact on educated, working people in receipt of HAP?

Not sure if HAP must be signed off every year, but if so, I would imagine it’s a highly degrading exercise to complete if someone is educated, working and earning what most would consider a decent salary.

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/thalassa-gleninagh-quay-ballyvaughan-clare/4492455

This is a strange setup. Amazing setting but I think the layout of the gaff would drive me mad.

All that wood panelling .....it's everywhere

zinfandel

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder has anybody studied the psychological impact on educated, working people in receipt of HAP?

Not sure if HAP must be signed off every year, but if so, I would imagine it’s a highly degrading exercise to complete if someone is educated, working and earning what most would consider a decent salary.

or even worse those just outside the HAP threshold and paying half of their salary on rent and never able to build up a deposit for a home...