2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Underground

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

There’s no doubt there is a serious social problem being built up, when those who have no been able to purchase property retire. But there will be some mitigation through the fact that many of these people’s parents will own property, that will be passed down or sold. The issue is more where there is no property ownership in the whole family (which is obviously still an issue, but not as large a one)

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

There’s no doubt there is a serious social problem being built up, when those who have no been able to purchase property retire. But there will be some mitigation through the fact that many of these people’s parents will own property, that will be passed down or sold. The issue is more where there is no property ownership in the whole family (which is obviously still an issue, but not as large a one)

Your post emphasises that as the nation is perceived to get wealthier its citizens become poorer through one reason only. Property

All by choice of course

PropQueries

zinfandel wrote: »

or even worse those just outside the HAP threshold and paying half of their salary on rent and never able to build up a deposit for a home...

It does bring to the front of the mind how much of that additional €500 million budgeted for HAP this year is responsible for keeping existing rents high.

As I said before, for example, that would be 25,000 additional homes at €20k rent per annum being supported by these additional HAP payments.

Would those 25,000 landlords have kept their properties empty or would they have reduced their rent if this additional state money wasn’t available?

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

Your post emphasises that as the nation is perceived to get wealthier its citizens become poorer through one reason only. Property

All by choice of course

It’s not about wealth. It’s about security. Who wants to hit retirement age and have to pay rent, and have all that uncertainty. Not me, for sure.

That’s the societal issue we are facing into. Not one of wealth

Hubertj

TheSheriff wrote: »

All that wood panelling .....it's everywhere

Yep the decor isn’t for me either. It’s like it started off a small house and was added to and extended over time.

treenytru

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s not about wealth. It’s about security. Who wants to hit retirement age and have to pay rent, and have all that uncertainty. Not me, for sure.

That’s the societal issue we are facing into. Not one of wealth

I'm 32, if my mother lives to the same age as my grandmother that leaves me with 25 years of renting before I have the 'security' of her home or possibly a small inheritance to help me buy my own (after 22.5% of the property value is gone in the fair deal scheme, probate is paid for and sales proceeds split between siblings)

I can definitely understand where you are coming from, and I realise I'm lucky to even have my parent's property as a possible helping hand to securing my own place when I'm reaching retirement age.

However it does still leave my generation either not, or delaying having kids (and all the health problems that will put on the HSE) or raising those children in the uncertainty of the rental market.

Villa05

Deleted User wrote:

That’s the societal issue we are facing into. Not one of wealth

It's a societal issue because housing has been made a luxury product/service by our systems

awec

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I think we’re confusing turnkeys and leasing with Part V requirements, Props is 100% right here the state is buying more than the 10% part V I know because my sister was outbid by DCC on a second hand house.

Last year alone 8000 houses were acquired through these lease deals

Killian Woods said today he had a developer saying these lease deals are “like a government bond”

It’s hilarious to suggest the state is not a big player especially in Dublin, as Dr Dáithí Downey from DCC said HAP will cost as much as building a new Children’s hospital annually within 4 years

That is not what PropQueries said. He said there was no demand outside of "the state".

Yes I am sure they buy more than 10%. I am also confident that the majority of properties bought are bought privately.

To post that there is no demand outside of "the state" means either Props didn't read the article, didn't understand it, or is deliberately posting misinformation in this thread.

mcsean2163

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep the decor isn’t for me either. It’s like it started off a small house and was added to and extended over time.

Wood looks rotten at the base on the outside. A lot of money for a small house in the middle of nowhere.

Short overview from my side
We have huge youth unemployment for that reason we will get huge level of emigration what will affect renting/mortgage market
The banks give mortgages more easily to youngster than to people who over 35/40
Father and mother will have to step in with them savings but many of them was on Covid 350 PUP which been lower than them 500 average wage home
We can speak about supply and demand but main engine is the money in buyers pockets.
Many Eastern europeans coming back home they earned enough money to buy property at home the salaries in them countries rising many will get pension from government of Ireland at home.
Another Eastern Europe does not exist so this time Ireland will have get emigrants from outside EU.
Many brazilians coming from Brazil ( 220 millions population ) they will run renting market pay pensions to Eastern europenian and also will keep wages in Ireland low what will affect property prices too.
Supply and demand is nothing there is too many But at the moment

mcsean2163

zinfandel wrote: »

or even worse those just outside the HAP threshold and paying half of their salary on rent and never able to build up a deposit for a home...

I used to work with an incredibly talented engineer in exactly that position. He was becoming hateful toward those getting rent support as all his wage was being eaten up by rent. Really nice guy in a really awkward position.

The main engine forces for Ireland is
Cheap labor
Direct Foreign Investment
Low taxation for corporations
This is the 3 elephants which keep economy of Ireland moving forward
Nobody care were you will live nobody care how much you will earn and nobody care were you will get job
This country does not have any resources and without this 3 elephants this country will be ordinary green island
Lets start think from there.

Graham

Deleted User wrote: »

The main engine forces for Ireland is
Cheap labor
Direct Foreign Investment
Low taxation for corporations
This is the 3 elephants which keep economy of Ireland moving forward
Nobody care were you will live nobody care how much you will earn and nobody care were you will get job
This country does not have any resources and without this 3 elephants this country will be ordinary green island
Lets start think from there.

Or start from

Educated workforce
EU based
English speaking

YMMV

Cheap labor move many Ireland industries forward
Building industry
Renting market
Overseas Investment
If Ireland will lose cheap labor Ireland will die
There is too much BUT and supply and demand is nothing against it.
The cheap Eastern European labor force brought Ireland up and now this force leaving.

Graham

Deleted User wrote: »

Cheap labor move many Ireland industries forward
Building industry

I assume you're kidding.

Graham

Graham wrote: »

I assume you're kidding.

I was working in building industry and I know the live and nationalities of those who build irish houses and who pay rent .
The guys from Brazil working for 11.50 per hour making timber frame houses.
The problem if they will leave there will be no people to make them and pay rents.

If Ireland hospitality sector will not move forward tens of thousands low paid workers from foreign countries will move home
High rent and small wages
This will be serious hit to irish renting market.
By last Central bank report about 100K workers will lose jobs permanently.
Country are at 25 per cent unemployment already.
In 2009 we had 16.

hometruths

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght.

So, ownership rates of 25-39 yr olds have fallen to 12% presumably because they cannot afford current prices.

Same article points out that, unsurprisingly, the older generation have much higher ownership rates:

Home ownership has collapsed among adults of a prime working age – a reflection of surging house prices and a lost decade of wage growth since the financial crisis. Owning a property has become increasingly concentrated among older age groups. In 2016, 85 per cent of 65-year-olds owned their own homes, while just 14 per cent rented.

This reflects one of the points that I’ve been banging on about for ages - house prices are facing a demographic time bomb.

For those posters who think house prices can only go higher from here, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Hubertj

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-36-pembroke-gardens-ballsbridge-dublin-4/2552255

I posted this a few months ago when it went for sale as it is close to my home. Thought it was mad money. Sold for over asking

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/01/2021%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2022%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*Pembroke%20Gardens*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2021&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Pembroke%20Gardens

I know ballsbridge is a desireable area and having someone like me as a neighbour adds to the price but that’s mad stuff altogether. Although better value than a €1m 2 bed apartment 300 metres down the road.

Stark

Never really got why Ballsbridge commanded the high property prices that it did. It's nice enough but generally lifeless I've found from my days working there. I guess it's just rich people wanting to live next to rich people.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

For those posters who think house prices can only go higher from here, eg Marius

Stop accusing me of things I haven't said. It's not a first time.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Stop accusing me of things I haven't said. It's not a first time.

Apologies, I'll rephrase it.

For those posters who think house prices will never be lower than 2020, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Apologies, I'll rephrase it.

For those posters who think house prices will never be lower than 2020, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Better. Now I can answer.
There is lots of pent up demands, and lots of savings build up, on other side I don't have much of expectation of massive supplies hitting the market anytime soon. Thus individuals, council housing, and other players will have no problem to absorb supplies from older population anytime soon.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Apologies, I'll rephrase it.

For those posters who think house prices will never be lower than 2020, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Depends on the future levels of new supply at various price points . Someone is and has been buying them for the past 5 or 6 years .

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Better. Now I can answer.
There is lots of pent up demands, and lots of savings build up, on other side I don't have much of expectation of massive supplies hitting the market anytime soon. Thus individuals, council housing, and other players will have no problem to absorb supplies from older population anytime soon.

Are you saying prices will never be lower than 2020, or just not be lower than 2020 anytime soon?

It's half a million houses, give or take. What is your idea of anytime soon?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Depends on the future levels of new supply at various price points . Someone is and has been buying them for the past 5 or 6 years .

Presumably the 39-64 year old demographic have been buying them, trading up.

But if the ownership rates are collapsing in the 25-39 cohort, that will have a knock on effect in time.

Pussyhands

Underground wrote: »

The Burke Kennedy article in the IT today is worth a read, outlines the abject failure that Rebuilding Ireland has been. Home ownership rates for 25-39 yr old now c. 12% (was c. 21% 10 years ago). Where do we go from here? A lifetime of renting from institutional landlords until we reach retirement and then pray our 25% lump sum from our pension can buy us a sh*tty 1 bed in Tallaght?

Without going too off topic, all roads lead to a SF government at next election imo. Housing is the issue and FG have been in Government for 10 years now. To preside over home ownership statistics like the above must spell the end for them. Any initiative introduced has been designed to prop up the price of housing (HTB, and don't get me started on FF's shared equity scheme). I hate SF but at this point, how much worse could they be?

Apologies if the tone is a bit OTT but it's hard not to get depressed by this sometimes.

I'm single, 30 and I have a big deposit (50k) and I'm not sure I'll be able buy a 2 bed apartment in the area I'm looking.

The ones I'm seeing advertised just inside my budget are completely tiny and are not very nice at all.

It's very depressing.

Ush1

Stark wrote: »

Never really got why Ballsbridge commanded the high property prices that it did. It's nice enough but generally lifeless I've found from my days working there. I guess it's just rich people wanting to live next to rich people.

Proximity to town and the sea. Foxrock is the bigger anomaly to me.

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-36-pembroke-gardens-ballsbridge-dublin-4/2552255

I posted this a few months ago when it went for sale as it is close to my home. Thought it was mad money. Sold for over asking

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/01/2021%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2022%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*Pembroke%20Gardens*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=2021&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Pembroke%20Gardens

I know ballsbridge is a desireable area and having someone like me as a neighbour adds to the price but that’s mad stuff altogether. Although better value than a €1m 2 bed apartment 300 metres down the road.

Quite the price for a 2-bed terraced. And a 5% top up on the asking price to boot!

This one (unlike the cabra house posted recently) I can't reconcile with, it just seems like massive money for what you get.

schmittel

schmittel wrote: »

So, ownership rates of 25-39 yr olds have fallen to 12% presumably because they cannot afford current prices.

Same article points out that, unsurprisingly, the older generation have much higher ownership rates:



This reflects one of the points that I’ve been banging on about for ages - house prices are facing a demographic time bomb.

For those posters who think house prices can only go higher from here, eg Marius - if ownership rates amongst the 25-39 year olds have collapsed, and presumably will stay low as long as prices are at current levels or higher, who exactly is going to buy the stock off the 65+ years old sellers at current prices or higher, when the time comes?

Gets given to the kids?