2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

Deleted User wrote: »

Gets given to the kids?

Sure that will happen with a bunch of them, maybe most. Great for only children.

But for families of 2 , 3 or more kids chances are high that they'll need to get market value for it. Either to buy out 1 sibling fairly or for all of them to get cash out to buy a house each.

Point being its not a batch of 500k houses that will never effect the market because they'll be inherited.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Are you saying prices will never be lower than 2020, or just not be lower than 2020 anytime soon?

It's half a million houses, give or take. What is your idea of anytime soon?

I'm saying, I don't expect ever prices to be lower than 2020. For now it's because of demand/supplies, for long term is because of the inflation effect. But there obviously will be ups and downs.
Anytime soon I mean, mainly for at least the rest of the 2021.

awec

I’d say most inherited houses end up sold, particularly ones in urban areas.

Sorolla

20 years ago my mother transferred a house to my name.

I live abroad and am now selling the house.

It was never my principle residence.

Could someone advice me on the CGT liability

Hubertj

Ush1 wrote: »

Proximity to town and the sea. Foxrock is the bigger anomaly to me.

You get to tell people you live in D4 (specifically Ballsbridge) as well. Main reason I bought here.

Villa05

Marius34 wrote:

Better. Now I can answer. There is lots of pent up demands, and lots of savings build up, on other side I don't have much of expectation of massive supplies hitting the market anytime soon. Thus individuals, council housing, and other players will have no problem to absorb supplies from older population anytime soon.

I really can't see the current methods of procuring social housing being sustainable. Can you?

treenytru

Sorolla wrote: »

20 years ago my mother transferred a house to my name.

I live abroad and am now selling the house.

It was never my principle residence.

Could someone advice me on the CGT liability

Quick guide on how to calculate CGT here.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/gains-gifts-and-inheritance/transfering-an-asset/how-to-calculate-cgt.aspx

Use the table to calculate the market value of the house (given indexation) on the date your mother passed it onto you . https://www.revenue.ie/en/gains-gifts-and-inheritance/documents/cgtmult.pdf

Deduct the allowable expenses and your yearly exemption (1270euro) and multiply the result by 33%. That's your CGT.

If you have further questions about your specific circumstances, might be best to ask in the accountancy forum

Pelezico

Sorolla wrote: »

20 years ago my mother transferred a house to my name.

I live abroad and am now selling the house.

It was never my principle residence.

Could someone advice me on the CGT liability

You are liable for CGT on difference between valuation at time of acquisition and sale price.

I wonder if you are also liable for CAT....there may be a liability based on allowance at time of acquisition vs acquisition valuation.

Not sure about indexation relief.

standardg60

Villa05 wrote: »

I really can't see the current methods of procuring social housing being sustainable. Can you?

It will last as long as cheap credit is available to the Government, exactly like it was to the banks prior to the last crash.
Once that credit line is tightened it will lead to a reset, most likely under a left led coalition.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

I really can't see the current methods of procuring social housing being sustainable. Can you?

Don't know, social housing strategy might change in longer term, I'm trying not to get to much in politics, when analyzing Property Market.

standardg60

Marius34 wrote: »

Don't know, social housing strategy might change in longer term, I'm trying not to get to much in politics, when analyzing Property Market.

Any chance you could persuade politicians to do the same?

Ush1

Hubertj wrote: »

You get to tell people you live in D4 (specifically Ballsbridge) as well. Main reason I bought here.

Even when they don't ask.

theboringfox

Low interest rates continue to be biggest driver of house price growth. A rate increase if it happens will be all that I can see driving prices into reverse. Even since 2016 when I bought my mortgage repayment has come down significantly than it was at outset. More supply coming to market will help balance things but this is all about low interest rates. And it is not just property or an Irish thing. Look at the stock markets. Low interest rates and massive money printing is driving up asset prices. Hopefully levels off soon.

standardg60

Ush1 wrote: »

Even when they don't ask.

Once worked for a client on Ailesbury Road.
They told me to put the invoice through the letterbox (even though they were in).
Needless to say it was the first and last time.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm saying, I don't expect ever prices to be lower than 2020. For now it's because of demand/supplies, for long term is because of the inflation effect. But there obviously will be ups and downs.
Anytime soon I mean, mainly for at least the rest of the 2021.

Are you expecting councils and housing charities to continue their current buying levels in the market indefinitely? If so I guess the price inflation theory over time stacks up.

I am just not sure it is likely to continue forever, and what happens when they wind it down? Between the various sources there are currently 25k new social housing units provided a year. If they keep going at this rate at some stage they won't need to build/buy/lease any more.

The over 65s have approx half a million units of housing stock. If the councils and charities have pulled back from the market before these are washed through, I think basic maths suggests they will be difficult to sell at current prices.

Cyrus

Ush1 wrote: »

Proximity to town and the sea. Foxrock is the bigger anomaly to me.

In fairness foxrocks star is dimming all it has going for it now is some old period piles on big sites and living close to other well off people.

The desirable areas are d4/6 and anywhere along the coast.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

In fairness foxrocks star is dimming all it has going for it now is some old period piles on big sites and living close to other well off people.

The desirable areas are d4/6 and anywhere along the coast.

I think it dimmed years ago. Seems like it was hugely popular with certain type of aspirational middle class in the 1970s, they're all in their 80s now. Never seen the attraction of the place.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I think it dimmed years ago. Seems like it was hugely popular with certain type of aspirational middle class in the 1970s, they're all in their 80s now. Never seen the attraction of the place.

I agree. There are some very nice big old houses on Westminster, Brighton and Torquay roads but that’s it. Nice gaffs but little in the way of amenities in the area

Yurt2

schmittel wrote: »

So, ownership rates of 25-39 yr olds have fallen to 12% presumably because they cannot afford current prices.

This is a shocking stat, and I actually didn't think it was so low. Alarm bells should be ringing with everybody from policymakers to Joe and Mary PAYE - this is a demographic problem that won't go away without serious intervention.

Our housing provision model (not that much thought goes into it) is broken and the next couple of decades are going to be very painful. I don't think it's good enough to say 'not my problem' or #learntocode anymore.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Are you expecting councils and housing charities to continue their current buying levels in the market indefinitely? If so I guess the price inflation theory over time stacks up.

I am just not sure it is likely to continue forever, and what happens when they wind it down? Between the various sources there are currently 25k new social housing units provided a year. If they keep going at this rate at some stage they won't need to build/buy/lease any more.

The over 65s have approx half a million units of housing stock. If the councils and charities have pulled back from the market before these are washed through, I think basic maths suggests they will be difficult to sell at current prices.

No, I don't expect anything about council housing for longer term.

mcsean2163

Yurt! wrote: »

This is a shocking stat, and I actually didn't think it was so low. Alarm bells should be ringing with everybody from policymakers to Joe and Mary PAYE - this is a demographic problem that won't go away without serious intervention.

Our housing provision model (not that much thought goes into it) is broken and the next couple of decades are going to be very painful. I don't think it's good enough to say 'not my problem' or #learntocode anymore.

We have the lowest percentage of our population over 65 in the EU and a huge non national population in 25-39 bracket.

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/early-irish-census-results-show-country-is-less-irish

17% not born in Ireland and that is an enormous increase in 20 years. I assume it's harder for a deliveroo driver to get a mortgage.

Yes we should be enabling a route to home ownership for all but assume many new arrivals are happy to rent/ party so may not be quite the crisis it appears to be?

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

No, I don't expect anything about council housing for longer term.

I get it. You try not to get into thinking about politics when analysing property market fundamentals. Fair enough, but in this case not a lot of point in asking what you think, as it is fairly meaningless without factoring in government/council demand.

PommieBast

combat14 wrote: »

thats if businesses open up - alot of zombie companies will close too

I've noticed quite a few central Dublin retail units recently vacated, although so far they seem to mostly be companies going online-only.

mcsean2163

mcsean2163 wrote: »

We have the lowest percentage of our population over 65 in the EU and a huge non national population in 25-39 bracket.

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/early-irish-census-results-show-country-is-less-irish

17% not born in Ireland and that is an enormous increase in 20 years. I assume it's harder for a deliveroo driver to get a mortgage.

Yes we should be enabling a route to home ownership for all but assume many new arrivals are happy to rent/ party so may not be quite the crisis it appears to be?

This again.
Foreign born does not equal foreign.
Many Irish people are not born here.
Assuming that all immigrants are deliveroo drivers is a bit bad isn't it?

mcsean2163

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yes we should be enabling a route to home ownership for all but assume many new arrivals are happy to rent/ party so may not be quite the crisis it appears to be?

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

MY GOD WE'VE SOLVED THE HOUSING CRISIS. THERE NEVER WAS ONE TO BEGIN WITH!

Pelezico

Deleted User wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

MY GOD WE'VE SOLVED THE HOUSING CRISIS. THERE NEVER WAS ONE TO BEGIN WITH!

PropQueries has been saying for ages that there is no crisis.....just all hype.

Even the word...crisis....so emotive.

bubblypop

bubblypop wrote: »

This again.
Foreign born does not equal foreign.
Many Irish people are not born here.
Assuming that all immigrants are deliveroo drivers is a bit bad isn't it?

It is fair to point out the transient nature of many of our young residents though. Probably 50% of those in my Dublin office (a large global MNC) are from overseas and will be here for only 3 or 4 years.

That’s not to say the numbers aren’t bad, and we don’t have a major problem, but they are likely a little overstated

Villa05

standardg60 wrote:

It will last as long as cheap credit is available to the Government, exactly like it was to the banks prior to the last crash. Once that credit line is tightened it will lead to a reset, most likely under a left led coalition.

I remember back in 2011 when we were extremely grateful as a nation to be only paying circa 5% on the bailout money loaned to us by the UK. The EU were charging considerably more ironically as the bailout mostly benifited their banks

mcsean2163

bubblypop wrote: »

This again.
Foreign born does not equal foreign.
Many Irish people are not born here.
Assuming that all immigrants are deliveroo drivers is a bit bad isn't it?

I'm certainly not assuming any such thing. I've worked with brilliant non Irish. I'm trying to say that similar to myself when I worked oversea a lot of the immigrant population which is in the 25-39 age bracket may not be interested in a mortgage. This may change as they get older especially if they have kids and maybe forget plans to save and move home etc but I do think that cohort are less like to focus on buying a home. I could be wrong and basing stupid assumptions on my experience abroad and the Irish I worked with abroad, so apologies if I hit the wrong note.

Anyway, back to houses.

Ush1

Just on the work from home thing, emails have gone out in my place, a large US multinational that employees will be phased back to sites by September.