2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

The_Conductor

timmyntc wrote: »

Must be a nice little money-spinner setting up an AHB.
The very fact that so many companies are chomping at the bit to lease properties to the state tells you something is very wrong.

It tells you that the state has set their willingness to pay prices at levels which are so far out of kilter with the actual market- that it is a simple money making machine for Solas (and the growing number of similar companies).

The PAC (and/or other bodies who actually have the power to dictate what is and what is not reasonable expenditure of public funds)- needs to urgently assess all these agreements that local authorities (and others) are coming up with.

fliball123

The_Conductor wrote: »

It tells you that the state has set their willingness to pay prices at levels which are so far out of kilter with the actual market- that it is a simple money making machine for Solas (and the growing number of similar companies).

The PAC (and/or other bodies who actually have the power to dictate what is and what is not reasonable expenditure of public funds)- needs to urgently assess all these agreements that local authorities (and others) are coming up with.

This is what happens when the tail wags the dog. The lefties are pushing this agenda and without adequate knowledge or man power to actually build housing. The govenement are going down this route. Its crazy stuff and PAC like any other body are just a pack of nodding dogs once their wage and pensions are fine its nothing to see here. I heard this on newstalk this morning and it was spun in a positive way more housing for the underprivileged. The really depressing thing is FF/FG are far more right leaning (but still learning to the left) than SF god knows what the sinners will do.

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

It tells you that the state has set their willingness to pay prices at levels which are so far out of kilter with the actual market- that it is a simple money making machine for Solas (and the growing number of similar companies).

The PAC (and/or other bodies who actually have the power to dictate what is and what is not reasonable expenditure of public funds)- needs to urgently assess all these agreements that local authorities (and others) are coming up with.

It does beg the question. If you’re buying your first home, whether it’s a new build, a second hand home or a home that’s in need of refurbishment, who are you really bidding against?

Is it really such a conspiracy theory anymore to state the obvious, in many cases anyway?

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

This is what happens when the tail wags the dog. The lefties are pushing this agenda and without adequate knowledge or man power to actually build housing. The govenement are going down this route. Its crazy stuff and PAC like any other body are just a pack of nodding dogs once their wage and pensions are fine its nothing to see here. I heard this on newstalk this morning and it was spun in a positive way more housing for the underprivileged. The really depressing thing is FF/FG are far more right leaning (but still learning to the left) than SF god knows what the sinners will do.

Its not a "left" thing, its a corporatist/neoliberal thing.
Contracting out states functions to private companies will always end up with private companies taking the piss.

We see it all the time with govt tenders - bid low, get the tender, ask for more money.
Provision of social housing is following the same idea now.

State should build and manage its own stock, AHBs should not be engaged with.

RichardAnd

Browney7 wrote: »

They would from a pension fund/reit who manages to get the state to agree to a bulk lease on the enhanced leasing scheme with annual CPI increases for 25 years that gives a "discount" on market rent. Or else the REIT with access to money at near 0% will buy the whole block and use it as a way to park money and lease out a few apartments to corporates.

It seems the state is putting a minimum value on rents by use of leasing schemes and HAP and also propping up values via part V.

It seems to me that the state, and not just the Irish one, is working towards a long-term plan where by ownership of property is simply beyond the average worker. The state should not have that kind of power.

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

Its not a "left" thing, its a corporatist/neoliberal thing.
Contracting out states functions to private companies will always end up with private companies taking the piss.

We see it all the time with govt tenders - bid low, get the tender, ask for more money.
Provision of social housing is following the same idea now.

State should build and manage its own stock, AHBs should not be engaged with.

Sorry it is a left thing the capitalists(REITS/vultures) have just seen an opportunity where they can make a good guaranteed return be under no illusion this is the work of those looking for free housing for everyone brigade. The government have not got the wherewithal to build that skillset died back in the 80s/90s when developers could just pay a certain amount not to build any corpo gaffs in their developments so fast forward to 2021 we have a severe deficit of usable housing stock and in order to appease the so called welfare class they are panicking buying sh1te like this and renting from the above capitalists. This is also a result an unforeseen consequence of the small landlord leaving the market as the the REITS and vultures can now leave property vacant keeping rents high where as a small landlord would of had to adjust prices in order to keep cashflow coming in.

MacronvFrugals

Who gave them a taste of the so called treasure island?

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry it is a left thing the capitalists(REITS/vultures) have just seen an opportunity where they can make a good guaranteed return be under no illusion this is the work of those looking for free housing for everyone brigade. The government have not got the wherewithal to build that skillset died back in the 80s/90s when developers could just pay a certain amount not to build any corpo gaffs in their developments so fast forward to 2021 we have a severe deficit of usable housing stock and in order to appease the so called welfare class they are panicking buying sh1te like this and renting from the above capitalists. This is also a result an unforeseen consequence of the small landlord leaving the market as the the REITS and vultures can now leave property vacant keeping rents high where as a small landlord would of had to adjust prices in order to keep cashflow coming in.

Have small landlords left the market? When the councils sign those long-term lease agreements, the council is down as the landlord for the duration of the lease in many cases i.e. we’re “officially” down a “landlord” but not a rental property.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Have small landlords left the market? When the councils sign those long-term lease agreements, the council is down as the landlord for the duration of the lease in many cases i.e. we’re “officially” down a “landlord” but not a rental property.

Do you deny that small landlords have been leaving its common knowledge

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/small-private-landlords-are-quitting-in-their-droves-says-seller-of-glenageary-house-1.4089315

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/herald/news/pressure-to-increase-on-renters-as-17000-landlords-quit-the-market-39248586.html

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/smaller-investors-flee-the-landlord-market-as-cuckoo-funds-up-ante-38516029.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30940336.html

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/7sdtbp/why_are_landlords_leaving_the_market_in_large/

They have been leaving for the last 5 years

Ozark707

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

There's not a hope in hell they would! Sure that's why 4/5ths of apartments in Clancy Quay are vacant and this was pre-Covid also

Clancy Quay? Is that in the new block down there? I would have been surprised it was that high. I thought it was the Capital Dock building that was the one which had over a 50% vacancy level.

MacronvFrugals

Ozark707 wrote: »

Clancy Quay? Is that in the new block down there? I would have been surprised it was that high. I thought it was the Capital Dock building that was the one which had over a 50% vacancy level.

A detailed analysis of the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) register by the Business Post has shown nearly four-fifths of the 246 apartments in phase three of Clancy Quay in Dublin 8 are empty.

Nearly half of the apartments in Capital Dock, a 190-apartment, 22-storey built-to-let tower in Dublin’s Docklands are also vacant....

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/hundreds-of-luxury-apartments-controlled-by-us-fund-lie-vacant-in-capital-7993e066

RichardAnd

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry it is a left thing the capitalists(REITS/vultures) have just seen an opportunity where they can make a good guaranteed return be under no illusion this is the work of those looking for free housing for everyone brigade. The government have not got the wherewithal to build that skillset died back in the 80s/90s when developers could just pay a certain amount not to build any corpo gaffs in their developments so fast forward to 2021 we have a severe deficit of usable housing stock and in order to appease the so called welfare class they are panicking buying sh1te like this and renting from the above capitalists. This is also a result an unforeseen consequence of the small landlord leaving the market as the the REITS and vultures can now leave property vacant keeping rents high where as a small landlord would of had to adjust prices in order to keep cashflow coming in.

I think it's a bit of a combination. The desire to provide social housing is certainly a leftist ambition, but corporations buying up property en-mass reeks of neo-liberalism/globalism.

Something that I've noticed over the years is that neo-libs are extremely good at using leftists to push their own agenda. Ironic, some would say.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Do you deny that small landlords have been leaving its common knowledge

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/small-private-landlords-are-quitting-in-their-droves-says-seller-of-glenageary-house-1.4089315

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/herald/news/pressure-to-increase-on-renters-as-17000-landlords-quit-the-market-39248586.html

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/smaller-investors-flee-the-landlord-market-as-cuckoo-funds-up-ante-38516029.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30940336.html

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/7sdtbp/why_are_landlords_leaving_the_market_in_large/

They have been leaving for the last 5 years

In 2020 we had c. 165k registered private landlords and in 2016, we had c. 175k according to the RTB.

How many long-term lease agreements have been signed by the councils over that period?

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I couldn't disagree more with the first line. I've been actively resisting Blackrock for a long time.

When people ask is somewhere is a good area, I say the worst live in the 'good' areas and the best in the 'worst' areas. Obviously not true for everyone but I think it's a good rule of thumb. As an investment it's probably a good long term one but living there...

Wife is very keen to move but Blackrock is the one place in Ireland I've said no.

sorry im not sure i understand you? are you saying (and sorry to anyone who lives in darndale im stereotyping) the best people live in somewhere like darndale and hence youd rather live there than blackrock?

i think blackrock has lost a little of its charm but its still up there as one of dublins nicer suburbs.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

This is what happens when the tail wags the dog. The lefties are pushing this agenda and without adequate knowledge or man power to actually build housing. The govenement are going down this route. Its crazy stuff and PAC like any other body are just a pack of nodding dogs once their wage and pensions are fine its nothing to see here. I heard this on newstalk this morning and it was spun in a positive way more housing for the underprivileged. The really depressing thing is FF/FG are far more right leaning (but still learning to the left) than SF god knows what the sinners will do.

It seems odd that the left would be blamed for current housing policy when they are a group that were never in power.
Ff/Fg have overseen the mess in particular over the last 30 years with a litany of planning scandals, questionable relationships with developers, brown envelope scandals, taking the country into bankruptcy etc

Housing has become a welfare scheme for the wealthy with layer upon layer of profit taking, jobs for the boys/girls

Of course Newstalk would be singing its praises. Every good scam needs the media on song. Think of the increased advertising revenue from rising House prices. Pay 20k for for that kitchen shure it will add 40k to the value of your home

After all building houses is so complicated especially when you own so much land, have acesss to 0% long term finance and increasingly an available pool of labour

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

In 2020 we had c. 165k registered private landlords and in 2016, we had c. 175k according to the RTB.

How many long-term lease agreements have been signed by the councils over that period?

And how many do you think will be getting out of the game once they can legally evict tenants once corona is gone? Have you a link to the RTB numbers?

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

It does beg the question. If you’re buying your first home, whether it’s a new build, a second hand home or a home that’s in need of refurbishment, who are you really bidding against?

Is it really such a conspiracy theory anymore to state the obvious, in many cases anyway?

I started a thread a few weeks ago about what the councils are doing and was asked if I have proof.
Obviously i couldnt post how I know this as its from a close friend who is actually involved in acquisitions for the council who told me, and they are hardly going to send me documents i can post.

The thread got closed by the mods as a conspiracy theory.
Someone needs to reign in the councils. What councils are doing is worthy of a prime time episode, but you wont see RTE doing a program on the damage councils are doing to ordinary home buyers.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

And how many do you think will be getting out of the game once they can legally evict tenants once corona is gone? Have you a link to the RTB numbers?

All the figures I provided are in the research and statistics tab on the rtb website.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

It seems odd that the left would be blamed for current housing policy when they are a group that were never in power.
Ff/Fg have overseen the mess in particular over the last 30 years with a litany of planning scandals, questionable relationships with developers, brown envelope scandals, taking the country into bankruptcy etc

Housing has become a welfare scheme for the wealthy with layer upon layer of profit taking, jobs for the boys/girls

Of course Newstalk would be singing its praises. Every good scam needs the media on song. Think of the increased advertising revenue from rising House prices. Pay 20k for for that kitchen shure it will add 40k to the value of your home

After all building houses is so complicated especially when you own so much land, have acesss to 0% long term finance and increasingly an available pool of labour

Are you kidding me never in power ??? even do FF/FG are supposedly right leaning the majority of their policies have been going toward the left. You only have to look at how much we spend on welfare in the country. Or the mantra of be a mammy and get a free gaff. Its madness the lefties are shouting loudest and are being pandered to and have more or less been putting a Sinn Fein gun to their heads to make stupid decisions like buying up property at higher price points.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Are you kidding me never in power ??? even do FF/FG are supposedly right leaning the majority of their policies have been going toward the left. You only have to look at how much we spend on welfare in the country. Or the mantra of be a mammy and get a free gaff. Its madness the lefties are shouting loudest and are being pandered to and have more or less been putting a Sinn Fein gun to their heads to make stupid decisions like buying up property at higher price points.

How much we spend on welfare? Almost half the “welfare” budget is pensions. A lot of the rest is children’s allowance, carers allowance etc.

If you got two people, both working in a supermarket, are they now “welfare” recipients because their wages can’t afford the rent? A rent which would have collapsed if the government didn’t double the HAP payments to €1 billion this year.

To understand how much the HAP payments are keeping existing “market” rents where they are, €1 billion is 50,000 rental properties at an average rent of €20k per annum.

Would the landlords have kept those c. 50,000 properties empty or would they have lowered their rent if the state wasn’t paying HAP?

Would “market” rents have dropped by in excess of 50% without HAP?

I believe so.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

The thread got closed by the mods as a conspiracy theory. Someone needs to reign in the councils. What councils are doing is worthy of a prime time episode, but you wont see RTE doing a program on the damage councils are doing to ordinary home buyers.

I'd understand why the mods might close it but we do need a blogger like namawinelake again. Investigative journalism is dead unfortunately. Highly questionable practices going on with no one held accountable

fliball123 wrote:

Are you kidding me never in power ??? even do FF/FG are supposedly right leaning the majority of their policies have been going toward the left. You only have to look at how much we spend on welfare in the country. Or the mantra of be a mammy and get a free gaff. Its madness the lefties are shouting loudest and are being pandered to and have more or less been putting a Sinn Fein gun to their heads to make stupid decisions like buying up property at higher price points.

Your spoofing now, another poster hit the nail on the head, gov manipulating leftist ideals to pursue their own neo lib policies
SF have been the biggest critic (unfortunately) of housing procurement and offering much lower cost alternatives.
I really don't understand how the social Democrats and Labour are not more voiceferus on the issue

L1011

JimmyVik wrote: »

The thread got closed by the mods as a conspiracy theory.

Because you were, then as now, unable to provide anything proof other than 'a mate told me'. You can drop the line of discussion here too until proof exists. Do not reply to this post.

Cuddlesworth

PropQueries wrote: »

All the figures I provided are in the research and statistics tab on the rtb website.

Data is annoying as RTB like to change what they report on, in general though, we lost nearly 10k landlords in 4 years and the percentage of rentals vs owner occupier has gone from a high of 16.95% to 15.89% during a period where rent was increasing well past inflation.

I'd say this has possibly been going on longer, but was covered up by the lag in getting landlords to register with the RTB over the years.

Date Landlords Landlords change Tennancies Tenancies change Total numbers of houses New dwellings built Percetnage of Rentals
31/12/2016 175,250 325,372 2,022,895 0.16084473
31/03/2017 2,025,674 2,779
30/06/2017 177,884 2,634 343,946 18,574 2,028,972 3,298 0.169517371
30/09/2017 176,251 -1,633 341,246 -2,700 2,032,757 3,785 0.167873484
31/12/2017 174,001 -2,250 339,447 -1,799 2,037,341 4,584 0.166612757
31/03/2018 173,951 -50 339,126 -321 2,040,816 3,475 0.166171767
30/06/2018 173,725 -226 339,905 779 2,045,220 4,404 0.166194835
30/09/2018 173,472 -253 339,117 -788 2,049,891 4,671 0.165431723
31/12/2018 173,197 -275 336,890 -2,227 2,055,413 5,522 0.163903799
31/03/2019 173,675 478 340,687 3,797 2,059,662 4,249 0.165409179
30/06/2019 173,624 -51 341,908 1,221 2,064,463 4,801 0.16561595
30/09/2019 171,369 -2,255 337,086 -4,822 2,070,113 5,650 0.162834589
31/12/2019 169,960 -1,409 335,685 -1,401 2,076,500 6,387 0.161659042
31/03/2020 169,593 -367 336,539 854 2,081,466 4,966 0.16168364
30/06/2020 168,106 -1,487 334,229 -2,310 2,084,703 3,237 0.160324516
30/09/2020 166,615 -1,491 332,237 -1,992 2,089,776 5,073 0.158982111
31/12/2020 165,736 -879 2,097,176 7,400

PropQueries

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Data is annoying as RTB like to change what they report on, in general though, we lost nearly 10k landlords in 4 years and the percentage of rentals vs owner occupier has gone from a high of 16.95% to 15.89% during a period where rent was increasing well past inflation.

I'd say this has possibly been going on longer, but was covered up by the lag in getting landlords to register with the RTB over the years.

Date Landlords Landlords change Tennancies Tenancies change Total numbers of houses New dwellings built Percetnage of Rentals
31/12/2016 175,250 325,372 2,022,895 0.16084473
31/03/2017 2,025,674 2,779
30/06/2017 177,884 2,634 343,946 18,574 2,028,972 3,298 0.169517371
30/09/2017 176,251 -1,633 341,246 -2,700 2,032,757 3,785 0.167873484
31/12/2017 174,001 -2,250 339,447 -1,799 2,037,341 4,584 0.166612757
31/03/2018 173,951 -50 339,126 -321 2,040,816 3,475 0.166171767
30/06/2018 173,725 -226 339,905 779 2,045,220 4,404 0.166194835
30/09/2018 173,472 -253 339,117 -788 2,049,891 4,671 0.165431723
31/12/2018 173,197 -275 336,890 -2,227 2,055,413 5,522 0.163903799
31/03/2019 173,675 478 340,687 3,797 2,059,662 4,249 0.165409179
30/06/2019 173,624 -51 341,908 1,221 2,064,463 4,801 0.16561595
30/09/2019 171,369 -2,255 337,086 -4,822 2,070,113 5,650 0.162834589
31/12/2019 169,960 -1,409 335,685 -1,401 2,076,500 6,387 0.161659042
31/03/2020 169,593 -367 336,539 854 2,081,466 4,966 0.16168364
30/06/2020 168,106 -1,487 334,229 -2,310 2,084,703 3,237 0.160324516
30/09/2020 166,615 -1,491 332,237 -1,992 2,089,776 5,073 0.158982111
31/12/2020 165,736 -879 2,097,176 7,400

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

I'd understand why the mods might close it but we do need a blogger like namawinelake again. Investigative journalism is dead unfortunately. Highly questionable practices going on with no one held accountable




Your spoofing now, another poster hit the nail on the head, gov manipulating leftist ideals to pursue their own neo lib policies
SF have been the biggest critic (unfortunately) of housing procurement and offering much lower cost alternatives.
I really don't understand how the social Democrats and Labour are not more voiceferus on the issue

So even do government has changed very recently you think every government that get into power (to date) have an agenda for neo-liberalism? A lot of what is going on has been unforseen. The most in your face example of this is property prices in the face of Brexit and a year long global pandemic, hundreds and thousands of people on pup payments and yet prices went up and they went up globally as well. Unless its the whole world political class in on the act, Illuminati anyone?? You are giving politicians way to much props for being clever enough to execute a neo-liberalism ideology. This is the same bunch of clowns who cant control spending in the HSE, thought it was a good idea to shutdown the country and then have a nice lunch together after a big game of golf. Threw away 60 billion on Anglo. I mean look at how badly run our PS systems are HSE being a classic example. FF and FG have been in power in some shape or form since the birth of the state. Politicians are just not that clever sorry but this is probably the biggest fly in the ointment for this particular conspiracy theory.

Now I do counter that the government have interfered with the housing market and I believe a lot of this is in reaction to the bad press they get when homelessness/housing figures are thrown in their face. They are now panicking they know that for the first time ever SF have a real shot at getting into power at the next general election. I think they just want to stay in power and will pay silly prices for apartments to make it look like they are doing something about the housing crisis.

Subutai

PropQueries wrote: »

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

Target is 10k by the end of rebuilding Ireland, 2.5k by 2022.

Unlikely to be 10k individual landlords though as the aim is to target large developments. Argument could be made that this displaces landlords of course

https://rebuildingireland.ie/news/minister-english-launches-enhanced-long-term-social-housing-leasing-scheme/

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

Have you any numbers on the long term leases??

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Did we lose 10,000 landlords over the past 4 years or did 10,000 landlords enter into long term lease agreements with their local council where the council replaced the landlord as the landlord for the duration of the long term lease?

Long term leases where the council is the landlord aren’t registered with the RTB.

They would have bought some too, though it seems im not allowed to talk about that, so i wont go any further.

MacronvFrugals

Villa05 wrote: »

I'd understand why the mods might close it but we do need a blogger like namawinelake again. Investigative journalism is dead unfortunately. Highly questionable practices going on with no one held accountable


I really don't understand how the social Democrats and Labour are not more voiceferus on the issue

I think Labour are afraid because namawinelake revealed their senators were trying to acquire cheap(cents on the euro) apartments off NAMA around that time

Not to mention they were also integral in the build to rent fund utopia we have today

DataDude

More terraced property porn. Hunters doing their usual lowballing on asking. This was bought for €2.2m in March 2018...

As incredible as the house is, not sure how I'd feel about paying €2m+ for a house and fighting for street parking every night?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-clifton-terrace-seapoint-avenue-monkstown-county-dublin/4493171