2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

A FF TD has an opinion piece in the Sunday Business Post (free to read) where he says:

"Ireland is becoming uncompetitive and is losing business to other countries as a direct consequence of our lack of housing and key infrastructure."

In my mind, this is just another signal that they're trying to get the public used to the idea of increased taxes in the near future. It's even more interesting in that he's the youngest member of the Dail and his FF colleague is in charge of housing. I'm assuming all such articles must be pre-approved by HQ, so they must have some plan to reduce house prices in the very near future IMO

Link to Business Post article (free to read) here: https://www.businesspost.ie/tax/james-oconnor-ireland-could-turn-a-higher-rate-of-corporate-tax-into-a-win-win-723c66b0

we are also uncompetitive as our marginal rates of tax are too high, maybe it is a signal for decreasing taxes?

timmyntc

Cyrus wrote: »

we are also uncompetitive as our marginal rates of tax are too high, maybe it is a signal for decreasing taxes?

In a perfect world..

However MNCs only care about getting the staff - so long as they can get a roof over their heads, it doesnt matter what their quality of life is. While tax rates will stop us from getting the best and brightest coming here, most roles will get filled provided they can find a place to live.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

A FF TD has an opinion piece in the Sunday Business Post (free to read) where he says:

"Ireland is becoming uncompetitive and is losing business to other countries as a direct consequence of our lack of housing and key infrastructure."

In my mind, this is just another signal that they're trying to get the public used to the idea of increased taxes in the near future. It's even more interesting in that he's the youngest member of the Dail and his FF colleague is in charge of housing. I'm assuming all such articles must be pre-approved by HQ, so they must have some plan to reduce house prices in the very near future IMO

Link to Business Post article (free to read) here: https://www.businesspost.ie/tax/james-oconnor-ireland-could-turn-a-higher-rate-of-corporate-tax-into-a-win-win-723c66b0

Cyrus wrote: »

we are also uncompetitive as our marginal rates of tax are too high, maybe it is a signal for decreasing taxes?

This is absolutely the biggest issue with regards to competitiveness and people like props think its a good idea to increase taxes. We pay income taxes here at a very high rate and at a low income level when compared to the rest of the EU. This needs to change to be more competitive any money looked at spending on being more competitive should be directed here.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Where does it say anything about raising taxes??? Will you stop making things up.

Its like me putting the below link up on and saying we are going to be flooded with FDI so there will be absolutely no issues for Ireland financially going forward. Your taking one opinion by one random person that does not even mention taxes and use it to extrapolate that we are in for an increase in taxes to fund housing.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0314/1203988-stripe-to-create-1-000-new-jobs-in-dublin/

Because he's on about investing in infrastructure while we are likely going to lose out from the global tax reforms.

We have the one of the highest (if not the highest) debt per capita rates in the EU. We obviously can't borrow much more to pay for this "infrastructure", so that means higher taxation. But it obviously won't be used to fund "infrastructure" IMO

And given that Biden's infrastructure plan is to be primarily paid from increased taxation revenues (on multinationals) and not borrowing, the world has already changed from deficit spending to living within our means.

Unfortunately, we're going to be hit from both sides i.e. declining corporation tax revenues (which will go to the states and other big economies to fund their infrastructure investment bill) and higher taxation at home just to fund existing day-to-day spending IMO

They can dress it up anyway they like. It's lose-lose on our side IMO

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

In a perfect world..

However MNCs only care about getting the staff - so long as they can get a roof over their heads, it doesnt matter what their quality of life is. While tax rates will stop us from getting the best and brightest coming here, most roles will get filled provided they can find a place to live.

That is not true there was lots of stories about high up positions in the PS over the last number of years that they could not get the people in for the salary (after tax)..It is a hindrance to anyone coming to work here. On a personal level we have had people turn down jobs from place like France and the UK due to the taxation levels here.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

people like props think its a good idea to increase taxes.

Don't believe I ever said I was in favour of it and obviously I'm not. What I may have said is that it's inevitable given the mismanagement of the Government revenues over the past 5 years and the state always looks after it's own pay and pensions first IMO

If that means taxing to the hilt whatever jobs are left post-Biden tax reforms, that is what they will do IMO

mcsean2163

PropQueries wrote: »

A FF TD has an opinion piece in the Sunday Business Post (free to read) where he says:

"Ireland is becoming uncompetitive and is losing business to other countries as a direct consequence of our lack of housing and key infrastructure."

In my mind, this is just another signal that they're trying to get the public used to the idea of increased taxes in the near future. It's even more interesting in that he's the youngest member of the Dail and his FF colleague is in charge of housing. I'm assuming all such articles must be pre-approved by HQ, so they must have some plan to reduce house prices in the very near future IMO

Link to Business Post article (free to read) here: https://www.businesspost.ie/tax/james-oconnor-ireland-could-turn-a-higher-rate-of-corporate-tax-into-a-win-win-723c66b0

I hope you're right. Slowing government house purchases and a vacancy tax would have a big impact on the market. When someone buys and sells the old property becomes available, that doesn't happen when the state buys.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Because he's on about investing in infrastructure while we are likely going to lose out from the global tax reforms.

We have the one of the highest (if not the highest) debt per capita rates in the EU. We obviously can't borrow much more to pay for this "infrastructure", so that means higher taxation. But it obviously won't be used to fund "infrastructure" IMO

And given that Biden's infrastructure plan is to be primarily paid from increased taxation revenues (on multinationals) and not borrowing, the world has already changed from deficit spending to living within our means.

Unfortunately, we're going to be hit from both sides i.e. declining corporation tax revenues (which will go to the states and other big economies to fund their infrastructure investment bill) and higher taxation at home just to fund existing day-to-day spending IMO

They can dress it up anyway they like. It's lose-lose on our side IMO

Lets see what the tax reforms are like (if they come in)
Lets see how the economy is after covid
Lets see what the unemployment rate is after covid
Lets see what the deficit is after covid (if there is one)

Only after Covid can you even start to look at finances in this country any of your opinion is pure speculation that is an absolutely blinkered one way look at how Ireland will be, its all doom and gloom
80% property price drops
all our jobs going to Eastern Europe
All MNCs packing their bags and heading back to the US.
More taxes on an already over taxes middle class.

Can we just going forward assume your going to look at things in the most outrageously negative way for Ireland's future and be done with it. You keep stating your opinions as something that will happen. Time will tell if your right but if you are right about your predictions then property prices and building houses will be way down the list of problems Ireland will have to solve..

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Don't believe I ever said I was in favour of it and obviously I'm not. What I may have said is that it's inevitable given the mismanagement of the Government revenues over the past 5 years and the state always looks after it's own pay and pensions first IMO

If that means taxing to the hilt whatever jobs are left post-Biden tax reforms, that is what they will do IMO

itll be a waste of time in your version of the world, there wont be any jobs,

uncle joe will take all the lolly.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

This is absolutely the biggest issue with regards to competitiveness and people like props think its a good idea to increase taxes. We pay income taxes here at a very high rate and at a low income level when compared to the rest of the EU. This needs to change to be more competitive any money looked at spending on being more competitive should be directed here.

To be fair to props, he said taxes which you've then inferred to be "income taxes". I agree with you that the income tax lemon doesn't have much juice left to give. Indeed politicians in debates are fixated on "income" taxes.

Whether the Irish government will move towards more asset or wealth taxes remains to be seen but such wealth tends to be concentrated in older people (who tend to vote) who paid income taxes all their lives but now have much lower incomes. CGT is already high. Consumption taxes like VAT are also high. It's inevitable there will be cuts to spend or increase in taxes somewhere unless the ECB keeps print money to finance an ongoing deficit for us.

My guess is the government will raid the pension pots again as low hanging fruit.

Tough choices ahead no doubt but how that feeds into property prices.....no idea

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

itll be a waste of time in your version of the world, there wont be any jobs,

uncle joe will take all the lolly.

The taxes have already started. It's just people haven't noticed them for some reason. For example, carbon taxes are going to be increasing by the year and according to the Irish Independent this week:

"one thing that we do know is that the tax has raised around €4bn since it was first introduced and many hard-pressed Irish consumers will be asking themselves where that money has gone and what environmental initiatives have actually been achieved since the tax was first introduced."

Next will be even higher health insurance premiums, property taxes, income taxes, higher charges on any services that the public require from the state (e.g. schools, colleges, bus fares, road tolls in the cities etc. etc.) and then even higher income taxes IMO

Link to Irish Independent article on carbon taxes here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/consumers-warned-to-stock-up-on-heating-fuels-ahead-of-carbon-tax-rise-40307953.html

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

That is not true there was lots of stories about high up positions in the PS over the last number of years that they could not get the people in for the salary (after tax)..It is a hindrance to anyone coming to work here. On a personal level we have had people turn down jobs from place like France and the UK due to the taxation levels here.

I just stopped doing overtime because its not worth it to me at the tax rate.
The company keep asking me to do it, but i couldnt be bothered.
Then the year before last I took 4 month parental leave, because i figured, it not that much to lose because of the tax i would have paid on the salary anyway.
Tax is so fcuking penal in this country when it comes to doing any overtime etc when you are already in the 40% (and dont forget PRSI and USC too) bracket.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

we are also uncompetitive as our marginal rates of tax are too high, maybe it is a signal for decreasing taxes?

I strongly strongly agree that our income taxes are too high. That said, pretty much every opposition party referred to increased income taxes on higher earners in their manifesto.
Fianna Fail not pushing for it, but also don't think they'd oppose it. Think Fine Gael is the last line of defence against it and honestly see it as inevitable that we get higher income taxes if Fine Gael aren't part of the next coalition. Scary thought, but can't see any other outcome .

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

I strongly strongly agree that our income taxes are too high. That said, pretty much every opposition party referred to increased income taxes on higher earners in their manifesto.
Fianna Fail not pushing for it, but also don't think they'd oppose it. Think Fine Gael is the last line of defence against it and honestly see it as inevitable that we get higher income taxes if Fine Gael aren't part of the next coalition. Scary thought, but can't see any other outcome .

Surely they have learned after 08, top earners will just leave it happened after 08 and with the new way of working and not having to be in a physical location to do a lot of jobs upping income taxes on the middle and upper classes will actually see a drop in overall income tax take.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

I strongly strongly agree that our income taxes are too high. That said, pretty much every opposition party referred to increased income taxes on higher earners in their manifesto.
Fianna Fail not pushing for it, but also don't think they'd oppose it. Think Fine Gael is the last line of defence against it and honestly see it as inevitable that we get higher income taxes if Fine Gael aren't part of the next coalition. Scary thought, but can't see any other outcome .

its seen as politically acceptable as to someone who earns 25k, someone on 40k makes a fortune and so on and so on, but i think it is a huge negative in our ability to attract and also retain top level executives. Imagine what Francesca McDonagh is thinking, comp capped at 500k with 460 odd taxed at 52%, she will be back at HSBC or some other bank in europe as soon as she can now that she has ticked the CEO box.

SmokyMo

PropQueries wrote: »

Because he's on about investing in infrastructure while we are likely going to lose out from the global tax reforms.

We have the one of the highest (if not the highest) debt per capita rates in the EU. We obviously can't borrow much more to pay for this "infrastructure", so that means higher taxation. But it obviously won't be used to fund "infrastructure" IMO

And given that Biden's infrastructure plan is to be primarily paid from increased taxation revenues (on multinationals) and not borrowing, the world has already changed from deficit spending to living within our means.

Unfortunately, we're going to be hit from both sides i.e. declining corporation tax revenues (which will go to the states and other big economies to fund their infrastructure investment bill) and higher taxation at home just to fund existing day-to-day spending IMO

They can dress it up anyway they like. It's lose-lose on our side IMO

I don't understand why do you think its hard to borrow? In fact everything shows that it is very easy to do it right now, and there is massive appetitive for investors to buy debt, even at negative rates?
Ireland should be borrowing to the max right now to sort its myriad of deep ongoing crises.
Unfortunately finance department is run by illiterate charlatans without an ounce of critical thinking.

DataDude

DataDude wrote: »

Personally think it's worth about €900k given the size of the site. €200k refurb and you've got something pretty special with plenty of room to extend if needed. Expect it will go higher, I haven't followed up since to find out where it's at now.

Here's another belated April Fools day asking price. It's absolutely not in Foxrock, but still...the estate agents today seem to think it's 2020 again!!

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10-beech-park-grove-foxrock-dublin-18/4488539

For anyone interested, as it was discussed a bit at the time. This house in Foxrock sold at €1.3m in 6 days. Really do wonder why estate agents insist on comically undervaluing properties. Seems like a waste of everyone's time!

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

its seen as politically acceptable as to someone who earns 25k, someone on 40k makes a fortune and so on and so on, but i think it is a huge negative in our ability to attract and also retain top level executives. Imagine what Francesca McDonagh is thinking, comp capped at 500k with 460 odd taxed at 52%, she will be back at HSBC or some other bank in europe as soon as she can now that she has ticked the CEO box.

Disagree. There is no evidence that by increasing salaries you will attract best talent.
Funny that you mention HSBC who get fined nearly every month for breaking various laws, from laundering money for cartel, to backwashing billions for oligarchs. Place must be run by top talent.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Surely they have learned after 08, top earners will just leave it happened after 08 and with the new way of working and not having to be in a physical location to do a lot of jobs upping income taxes on the middle and upper classes will actually see a drop in overall income tax take.

Cyrus wrote: »

its seen as politically acceptable as to someone who earns 25k, someone on 40k makes a fortune and so on and so on, but i think it is a huge negative in our ability to attract and also retain top level executives. Imagine what Francesca McDonagh is thinking, comp capped at 500k with 460 odd taxed at 52%, she will be back at HSBC or some other bank in europe as soon as she can now that she has ticked the CEO box.

Agree completely, its the easiest thing in the world to declare people over a certain threshold rich, propose higher taxes and everyone below that point goes "yay".

It's stupid, and I'm sure politicians are aware of the Laffer Curve...but has politics ever been about doing the right thing over the popular thing? I don't hold any hopes that any future governments will be different in that regard.

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

Agree completely, its the easiest thing in the world to declare people over a certain threshold rich, propose higher taxes and everyone below that point goes "yay".

It's stupid, and I'm sure politicians are aware of the Laffer Curve...but has politics ever been about doing the right thing over the popular thing? I don't hold any hopes that any future governments will be different in that regard.

I'm sure they all know. And, that's why the USA, UK, Germany etc. now believe that taxing the companies "based" in other countries (incl. Ireland) is a better way of funding their budgets than taxing their own people and small local businesses.

Question is, who can we tax?

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

Disagree. There is no evidence that by increasing salaries you will attract best talent.
Funny that you mention HSBC who get fined nearly every month for breaking various laws, from laundering money for cartel, to backwashing billions for oligarchs. Place must be run by top talent.

disagree, i have seen it first hand where senior people based in other tax jurisdictions decline to move to ireland because of our tax regime.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

I strongly strongly agree that our income taxes are too high. That said, pretty much every opposition party referred to increased income taxes on higher earners in their manifesto.
Fianna Fail not pushing for it, but also don't think they'd oppose it. Think Fine Gael is the last line of defence against it and honestly see it as inevitable that we get higher income taxes if Fine Gael aren't part of the next coalition. Scary thought, but can't see any other outcome .

Yep. Depends what they decide “high earners” are.

I think property tax will increase gradually over the next 5-10 years.

Having said that if the populist party Sinn Fein gets into power didn’t they say they would abolish property taxes and introduce a “wealth tax”. Mad stuff.

Then you have some clowns predicting prices of houses will fall by over 50% by end of summer but think the government will significantly increase property taxes to increase revenue. Real good maths.

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep. Depends what they decide “high earners” are.

I think property tax will increase gradually over the next 5-10 years.

Having said that if the populist party Sinn Fein gets into power didn’t they say they would abolish property taxes and introduce a “wealth tax”. Mad stuff.

Then you have some clowns predicting prices of houses will fall by over 50% by end of summer but think the government will significantly increase property taxes to increase revenue. Real good maths.

100k is always used as the salary to identify the 'wealthy'

which is a nonsense.

woejus

DataDude wrote: »

Laffer Curve....

I didn't pay attention in macro class

Villa05

DataDude wrote:

Agree completely, its the easiest thing in the world to declare people over a certain threshold rich, propose higher taxes and everyone below that point goes "yay".

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

Probably too busy working.

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

disagree, i have seen it first hand where senior people based in other tax jurisdictions decline to move to ireland because of our tax regime.

Sure that is the case, not arguing with that. I fail to see correlation to best talent with tax regimes.

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

Sure that is the case, not arguing with that. I fail to see correlation to best talent with tax regimes.

Well if these people aren't coming here becase if the tax regime then we are not attracting best talent are we.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

The lobbyists always frame it that the ones on the lower wage are benefiting so its hard I have said it before on here in Ireland the lefties shout the loudest

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

How come higher taxpayers are not more vocal on how their taxes are spent and lobby for competent spending thereby reducing the need for high taxes

They are a powerful and numerous group judjing by income tax returns during the pandemic

We all know the taxpayer is being milked by lobbyists. Why not set up a lobby to tackle it

Our beloved public servants are the problem. They are not competent and, thanks to trade unions, are not accountable. You can have the best ideas in the world but if you can’t execute them there’s a problem. You think things would magically improve if you had obrion in charge of housing simply because he talks a good game?